Your table is 2021Because Essendon don't get a band 1 compo pick if he was only getting $750k in guaranteed money on his original deal. AFL media has as much idea about a players actual wage as you and I have. They guess as much as we do.
However if you look at the table I posted, which breaks down all the players contracts for the 2021 season, to be among the top 15 players, he'd need to be earning at least $800k. It's that simple.
The table you need to use is 2020
There is no way the AFL can determine what the players will earn 1 year before they earn it and there are too many variables with players salaries and bonuses - But you keep using this as your argument
I have not seen any where where it states the player must be in the top 5 % of earners in their 1st year and that would be impossible to determine 1 year out specially with all the tricks and bonuses in players contracts as well as clubs deciding to front load contracts along the way.
Only way to determine is with facts they have from the year the contract is signed
If it falls into the 5% bracket then the compo is provided in november to be used or traded in the draft
Impossible to determine 12 months ahead where that would fall
Unless you find something that says that the player must be in the top 5% earners in the first year of his contract
I will still hold my position