Triple J Hottest 100 - 2020

[NotAMagpieBogan]

For the group odds, I don’t mind Billie Eilish (Therefore I Am) to beat Hilltop Hoods and Smith Street Band at $5. It’ll well and truly beat SSB but will be close with Hilltop Hoods.

Also, less likely but I might pop a little on Running Red Lights at $5.50 to beat Jungle Giants, Stace Cadet & KLP and Eves Karydas. I believe they’ll all be around the 10-20 range and quite close so less confident on that.

 

[jack1231]

Powfu is about 150 as said, probably not the best call. Top end is going exactly as expected though, especially Booster Seat on top early tunas. Got most of the top 10, think Avalanches will have trouble though, looks like Mallrat/Jungle Giants/possibly Wap instead. Didn't see WAP coming at all. If only they had decent markets out early this year.

Btw caught the first hour of the tally room last night. They may have said more later but their big reveal on how tight it is was that 5 and 6 are about 100 votes apart, which suggest #1 has a pretty comfortable lead.

yep we made the same conclusion as you with that tally room information.

 

[Frankth3tank]

I did a bit of research, and Warm Tunas' sample size has significantly decreased every year. Apart from the fact there are bugger all markets this year, it's why I'm placing less credence in its predictions (for now).

Year	Total votes	Warm Tunas votes	Sample size
2016	2,255,110	65,412	2.90%
2017	2,386,133	67,085	2.81%
2018	2,758,584	58,463	2.12%
2019	3,211,596	45,122	1.40%

1%+ is still statistically significant so I think the concern should still be on the bias, not on the decreasing sample size. In the past where we’ve seen upsets, 1 and 2 have been <2% apart. Heat Waves is heading to >4%. I think the fat lady is singing and it’ll start <$1.50...

 

[jack1231]

Sportsbet taking the piss

 

[ye olde mole]

I can no longer place bets with sportsbet, but it looks like the window has closed on that golden period where you could make some fair coin out of this event.
The top ten market is particularly bad. It's still interesting though.

 

[Gibbsy]

I can no longer place bets with sportsbet, but it looks like the window has closed on that golden period where you could make some fair coin out of this event.
The top ten market is particularly bad. It's still interesting though.

RIP to the good old days. 2018, what a year it was. Stupidly good odds on nearly every market; here is just a few examples. $61! They learnt their lesson to not offer BYO bets once they realised the punters knew more than the traders. Fun while it lasted.

 

[ronpingwins]

RIP to the good old days. 2018, what a year it was. Stupidly good odds on nearly every market; here is just a few examples. $61! They learnt their lesson to not offer BYO bets once they realised the punters knew more than the traders. Fun while it lasted.

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Those odds were insane, they really rated Big Shaq for some reason. I remember being on realistic top 10 bets at massive odds, I think it was a Vera Blue song that was still $51 days out from the count despite being #11 on tunas. There was also one where it was for 4 or 5 songs to finish 'lower than #10' that was never going to happen but was still at $20. There were a few I had to argue hard on the livechat afterwards to actually get paid out.

 

[ye olde mole]

RIP to the good old days. 2018, what a year it was. Stupidly good odds on nearly every market; here is just a few examples. $61! They learnt their lesson to not offer BYO bets once they realised the punters knew more than the traders. Fun while it lasted.

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Nice memories Gibbsy...I backed those three myself, and from memory I think they also paid out on 6 Australian artists in the top ten (because Gang of Youths had 3 in the top ten).

I fondly recall cracking a beer when Mans Not Hot bobbed up at number 51.
And a few more more beers when Mended by Vera Blue made the top 30.
I also remember dancing like I'd had too many beers when Young, Dumb and Broke bobbed up at 13 - it was the last song in a list of songs I needed to miss the top ten at some truly ridiculous price like $81.

What a time to be alive

 

[Gibbsy]

Those odds were insane, they really rated Big Shaq for some reason. I remember being on realistic top 10 bets at massive odds, I think it was a Vera Blue song that was still $51 days out from the count despite being #11 on tunas. There was also one where it was for 4 or 5 songs to finish 'lower than #10' that was never going to happen but was still at $20. There were a few I had to argue hard on the livechat afterwards to actually get paid out.

Yeah that was "Regular Touch" I think, I'm pretty sure I was on it as well, got fairly close from memory but just missed. But it should have been a $2.50 shout not a $51 shout. That was the funny thing.

The Vera Blue one had firmed into $2.20 by the day of the count. They had no idea, early days.

 

[jack1231]

Great memories. probably what made me keep coming back year after year.

in Brownlow medal this year we had a few mistake odd BYOS that were $20+ that hit so there’s still some hope in other events

But looks like they’ve clued on for hottest 100.

still have neds and pointsbet and others to offer some more markets yet so still some hope remains

 

[Gibbsy]

Just had a look at those SB top 10 markets. Absolutely thieving!

10 songs less than $1.40 and in total, 14 songs less than $2.00 to finish in the top 10...

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

Are the top 3, top 5 and top 10 same market multis new for this year? Don’t recall them in the last few. I assume the multi aspect is why they’ve cut the prices so much.

 

[Gibbsy]

Are the top 3, top 5 and top 10 same market multis new for this year? Don’t recall them in the last few. I assume the multi aspect is why they’ve cut the prices so much.

Correct. But even if you were to multi up their predicted top 10 all in a row you would get the stunning odds of $3.93.

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

The only decent chance for top 10 outside of the $1 to $2 range is Therefore I Am but even then it’s only at $2.50 so hardly worth it.

 

[ye olde mole]

You Should be Sad by Halsey is a 'surprise' candidate for top ten. It's not a song I like, but I can see it getting more votes than it deserves.
$3 for top ten isn't terrible.

 

[thewitness]

The only decent chance for top 10 outside of the $1 to $2 range is Therefore I Am but even then it’s only at $2.50 so hardly worth it.

I think "On Our Own" @$2.75 is a good chance to sneak into the back end of the Top 10.

 

[Gibbsy]

I think "On Our Own" @$2.75 is a good chance to sneak into the back end of the Top 10.

Agreed, particularly given how much "Robbery" exceeded expectations last year. I just can't get excited about $2.75 odds though, it means the outlays have to be pretty significant to have any chance of making decent coin and then the risk becomes too great.

 

[Sportsbet]

Even I'm disappointed at these markets. Not sure why the multis for top 3/5/10 are separated - so you can't multi a top 3 selection with a top 10 selection. That's why the total multi odds are so disappointing. Also cannot multi head to heads or group betting. It's cowardly I admit but you only have yourselves to blame.

 

[Liljam]

SB odds are beyond cowardly, pretty much a scam at those odds. Why even offer top 10 when 10 songs are below 1.40. Waste of everyone's time

 

[jack1231]

I’m offering better odds on betfair than Sportsbet is offering.

absolute joke of a betting agency.

 

[Sportsbet]

You guys can't just continue to fleece us for years and keep expecting us to cop it on the chin. We probably went too far overcorrecting this year but something had to be done as we don't take kindly to punters making easy money from badly misjudged odds on our part. Most of you should have got good value for Heat Waves a while ago so it should all hopefully work out well for you.

 

[Syd Sydneyson]

You guys can't just continue to fleece us for years and keep expecting us to cop it on the chin. We probably went too far overcorrecting this year but something had to be done as we don't take kindly to punters making easy money from badly misjudged odds on our part. Most of you should have got good value for Heat Waves a while ago so it should all hopefully work out well for you.

It’s not the customers fault if you offer misjudged odds

 

[Gibbsy]

It’s not the customers fault if you offer misjudged odds

“Sportsbet” also aren’t posting on bigfooty in monthly racing threads either. It’s an amusing idea but this poster can’t be a representative of the business.

 

[Gibbsy]

This count is no foregone conclusion.

Less than 350 votes between #1 and #2 currently.

Hottest 100 goss: only a few votes separate #1 & #2 in the countdown!

Looks like we've got an insider tiebreaker on our hands ahead of voting closing Monday.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Schulzenfest]

This count is no foregone conclusion.

Less than 350 votes between #1 and #2 currently.

Hottest 100 goss: only a few votes separate #1 & #2 in the countdown!

Looks like we've got an insider tiebreaker on our hands ahead of voting closing Monday.

www.abc.net.au

Interesting.

Almost makes me think it's worth throwing some money on Cherub. Sitting 2nd on Warm Tunas but $7 odds on Sportsbet.