Does the 'bolter' have to leap from the blocks? Carlton are treading water and playing very poorly right now, but as others have mentioned a favourable draw and lots of good players still means there is a long way to go.
There is a recipe for it to happen that goes something like:
- Current = 4-1-3: mix of good wins against bad teams, and some bleak losses to top 4 (albeit not by THAT much on the scoreboard) raises a few questions...
- Next 4 weeks = Bulldogs, Collingwood, SYDNEY, Melbourne. Best case scenario is eke out a win vs Bulldogs, then a bad beat vs Collingwood or Sydney puts the blowtorch on. The team makes some adjustments, gets a few guys who are playing but just going through the motions back into a good headspace, improves in a bit of a baptism of fire... and probably still loses narrowly to Melbourne, but this is a 'better' loss with quite a few signs. 5-1-6 on the scoreboard, but suddenly playing better footy than 6 losses in 8 weeks might suggest, and having sharpened skills against the best
- This leads into a BIG win over Essendon and suddenly confidence is back, and wins against GC (in melb) and Hawthorn come easily. Then Freo in Perth (happy hunting ground for Curnow), and a win over Port in Melb (who fail to show up) and a home game vs the Eagles, and suddenly we are back... 11-1-6 with a bullet (or even 10-1-7 if you give us a loss vs Freo or Port).
- Suddenly, Carlton vs Collingwood rematch is the hottest ticket in town. Collingwood knocked us out of finals last year, embarrased us earlier this season, but they're also fading a bit as the year goes on and... as we did last year in round 22 we play well and open up a 4-ish goal lead at 3/4 time. Collingwood expect to storm home, but Cripps puts on a clinic in the first 5 minutes of the last quarter, Collingwood can't even get the ball, and suddenly it is 6 goals... then 7... then 8... and... on it goes
- Round out the year with St Kilda, Melbourne, GC (away) and GWS to finish up something like 15-1-7 and in 5th spot.
- First final vs Bulldogs at the MCG, then a third game vs Collingwood for a spot in the prelim, sets up what is the biggest match in probably two decades that isn't a prelim or GF...
I don't think anything there is wildly improbable... but so much depends on how the club and team react when the firing squad comes in the next month (and it's coming... the team is like the Titanic on course for the iceberg right now in the style and attitude it is showing). If we can ride the wave and use the heavy defeats we are facing to iron out the deficiencies and rise to the challenge then the opportunity to 'be the bolter' is still right there imo. But go into our shell or start feeling the pressure and suddenly it could fall apart fairly fast. Strangely, I don't really think there ris a middle ground - I really don't see a scenario where Carlton has a small rally and limps into 8th spot, for example.
There is a recipe for it to happen that goes something like:
- Current = 4-1-3: mix of good wins against bad teams, and some bleak losses to top 4 (albeit not by THAT much on the scoreboard) raises a few questions...
- Next 4 weeks = Bulldogs, Collingwood, SYDNEY, Melbourne. Best case scenario is eke out a win vs Bulldogs, then a bad beat vs Collingwood or Sydney puts the blowtorch on. The team makes some adjustments, gets a few guys who are playing but just going through the motions back into a good headspace, improves in a bit of a baptism of fire... and probably still loses narrowly to Melbourne, but this is a 'better' loss with quite a few signs. 5-1-6 on the scoreboard, but suddenly playing better footy than 6 losses in 8 weeks might suggest, and having sharpened skills against the best
- This leads into a BIG win over Essendon and suddenly confidence is back, and wins against GC (in melb) and Hawthorn come easily. Then Freo in Perth (happy hunting ground for Curnow), and a win over Port in Melb (who fail to show up) and a home game vs the Eagles, and suddenly we are back... 11-1-6 with a bullet (or even 10-1-7 if you give us a loss vs Freo or Port).
- Suddenly, Carlton vs Collingwood rematch is the hottest ticket in town. Collingwood knocked us out of finals last year, embarrased us earlier this season, but they're also fading a bit as the year goes on and... as we did last year in round 22 we play well and open up a 4-ish goal lead at 3/4 time. Collingwood expect to storm home, but Cripps puts on a clinic in the first 5 minutes of the last quarter, Collingwood can't even get the ball, and suddenly it is 6 goals... then 7... then 8... and... on it goes
- Round out the year with St Kilda, Melbourne, GC (away) and GWS to finish up something like 15-1-7 and in 5th spot.
- First final vs Bulldogs at the MCG, then a third game vs Collingwood for a spot in the prelim, sets up what is the biggest match in probably two decades that isn't a prelim or GF...
I don't think anything there is wildly improbable... but so much depends on how the club and team react when the firing squad comes in the next month (and it's coming... the team is like the Titanic on course for the iceberg right now in the style and attitude it is showing). If we can ride the wave and use the heavy defeats we are facing to iron out the deficiencies and rise to the challenge then the opportunity to 'be the bolter' is still right there imo. But go into our shell or start feeling the pressure and suddenly it could fall apart fairly fast. Strangely, I don't really think there ris a middle ground - I really don't see a scenario where Carlton has a small rally and limps into 8th spot, for example.
