Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

[TheGreatBarryB]

In GreatBarryB's world, the guy who murdered Sisto was actually a white, Anglo-Saxon male Australian who was born here.

It must have just been the lighting from the TV cameras which made him look darker.

You seem obsessed with this one incident. Assume you bring/send flowers to Julian Knight, Martin Bryant, Paul Denyer and rest of multiple white ( and other persuasions) murderers in Australian prisons?

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

One thing about the Andrews government is it just gets on with the job of doing the things voters expect from a state government, we rarely if ever see members of the government carrying on with petty name calling or playing one group off against another, so yes the anti immigration message from the Liberals would have hurt them.

This is a good point.

 

[Gough]

But yeah, this idea that all immigrants vote Labor is very wrong. For years SA and British immigrants helped cement WAs conservative status.

And we should thank the deity of our choice for the Nullarbor Plain which has insulated the rest of Australia from them.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

It's looking like pre polling has heavily favoured the libs, a lot of those eastern seats that were called to the ALP are now comfortable for the libs or have been brought back to the in doubt category. They will gain ringwood, box hill and burwood by my calculations but the others will stay liberal imo. So instead of a bloodbath the Andrew's government will be win comfortably 53-54 to 30 or something like that.

 

[ChampTurboBucko]

In GreatBarryB's world, the guy who murdered Sisto was actually a white, Anglo-Saxon male Australian who was born here.

It must have just been the lighting from the TV cameras which made him look darker.

Dig up and stop embarrassing yourself you complete and utter goose.

 

[pazza]

This isn't going to happen.

At the federal level, they have to pretent to at least represent the centre to hold government.

But two elections of doing this, then immediately swinging right has roused the public.

Now Morrison is pursuing a Trumpian agenda and it's openly repellent. I think the poll bump was a reflexive response to the rhetoric following a terrorist attack and maybe pollsters are gating the data, scared of printing rrgular 10+ point margins.

I wouldn't be surprised if a federal election reflected the Victorian wipeout.

If you transpose the federal seats over what happened last night it's ugly.

Henderson in Corangamite maybe ok given her long term rival just got elected in South Barwon, but, she would be really worried. Hunt and Crewther (Flinders and Dunkley) are just about gone. The Liberal seats in Melbourne's east are problematic. Even in seats like Goldstein and Kooyong have had a backlash in their corresponding state seats.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

If you transpose the federal seats over what happened last night it's ugly.

Henderson in Corangamite maybe ok given her long term rival just got elected in South Barwon, but, she would be really worried. Hunt and Crewther (Flinders and Dunkley) are just about gone. The Liberal seats in Melbourne's east are problematic. Even in seats like Goldstein and Kooyong have had a backlash in their corresponding state seats.

A few of those are marginal as well, like Julia Banks seat.

 

[MJG14]

7.2% swing to Liberal in Melton now, 54% to 46% two party preferred with Labor leading. Labor will almost certainly win but the seat has gone from very safe to almost marginal.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

It's looking like pre polling has heavily favoured the libs, a lot of those eastern seats that were called to the ALP are now comfortable for the libs or have been brought back to the in doubt category. They will gain ringwood, box hill and burwood by my calculations but the others will stay liberal imo. So instead of a bloodbath the Andrew's government will be win comfortably 53-54 to 30 or something like that.

The numbers the guardian are running are still showing a 61 seat majority.

I will wait to the final count us done.

 

[Toump Ass]

If the economy was in surplus, then there would be far more jobs (especially in retail, where I am looking to work) because people would spend more and that creates more demand, and therefore more people needing to be hired to meet demand.

Why do you think the federal government scrapped the low-GST threshold for online purchases, or removed Sunday penalty rates? The retail industry isn't struggling because the economy is not in surplus; it's struggling because of technology. Consumers don't need to go to a store to buy a pair of shoes, they can do it on their smartphones on their way to work.

Sadly the retail industry isn't likely to recover, but thankfully the Andrews government will create loads of infrastructure so instead of selling ADIDAS you can now build a road instead, isn't that lucky for all of us?

 

[Baltimore Jack]

You seem obsessed with this one incident. Assume you bring/send flowers to Julian Knight, Martin Bryant, Paul Denyer and rest of multiple white ( and other persuasions) murderers in Australian prisons?

Rod Minogue, as pure a white boy as you could get....yep, he blew up Russell Street Police HeadQuarters

I'd go further and suggest White boys have caused more acts of terrorism on Australia soil that anyone else

 

[sportsmaniac89]

One thing about the Andrews government is it just gets on with the job of doing the things voters expect from a state government, we rarely if ever see members of the government carrying on with petty name calling or playing one group off against another, so yes the anti immigration message from the Liberals would have hurt them.

Come again!

Obviously you didn’t see the negative ALP ads they ran against Guy.

Obviously you didn’t see the blatant political attack against Guy in regards to Ventnor which led to the details of private citizens being leaked!

Obviously you didn’t see Dan force the only ALP politician with integrity, Jane Garrett out of Cabinet because she wouldn’t roll over to Peter Marshall like Dan does. What does Peter Marshall have on Dan Andrews and James Merlino?

I don’t think the above stands up to the lightest of scrutiny.

 

[ClokesShankedIt]

The world lost a potentially great nuclear scientist when you decided to downgrade to "retail".

It's always nice to observe a struggling working man hear exactly what the modern left thinks of him.

 

[Mkcaptain]

Were some of the Liberal's metropolitan seats called too early in favour of Labor last night? I'm interested in seeing how the high percentage of pre-polling influences the final outcomes

 

[FredLeDeux]

It's always nice to observe a struggling working man hear exactly what the modern left thinks of him.

Two things wrong with that
- I'm most definitely not modern left, and
- he's not a struggling working man (not even a struggling non-working man), he's just a sock puppet and a very naughty boy.

 

[ClokesShankedIt]

I don't think we will have a conservative govt for a long time.

I think society is gripped with political correctness, and people don't want to be seen as not being inclusive, racist, sexist, homophobic etc, so they vote in a way which makes them feel like they are a good person who accepts all.

The media and the Left have made conservatives out to be worse than Nazis, and with social media being so prominent, you will never get hard-nosed conservatives whose No1 priority is getting the budget into surplus, as caring for people has become more important, and many think that you can't be both a nice person and be wise with money as well.

I agree that we won't see a conservative government for a long time but where I differ to you is that you believe that the vic libs getting elected will provide the conservative government. I spoiled my ballot for the lower house because I was only presented with left wing choices. Let the libs rot.

In the upper house the micro parties got the nod and I am ever so pleased that I contributed to the excellent work of Glenn "the green slayer" Druery.

Now - is it safe to assume I will get legal weed this term so I can sit back and enjoy the carnage?

 

[RupieDupie]

Rod Minogue, as pure a white boy as you could get....yep, he blew up Russell Street Police HeadQuarters

I'd go further and suggest White boys have caused more acts of terrorism on Australia soil that anyone else

Rich old white people have caused trillions of dollars in criminal damage. And sold a whole generation into slavery. They screwed the opportunity for everyone else so they could get something they can’t even utilise. Dog act.

 

[ClokesShankedIt]

It's because the Coalition act as a trojan horse for industry and their only response to being accused of having no policy is to ramp up the police state.

They don't do proper immigration screening and consider that all nations provide equally beneficial migrants and the price we pay for this is our liberties.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

John Faine made an interesting observation last night

He said that after the demise of Family First, the remnants of that group infiltrated the Vic Liberal Party (mainly in the Eastern Suburbs) and shifted the party to the religious right with the result being what we saw last night. Faine said Victorians are generally progressive voters and will not accept what the religious right are throwing up.

Ex-Family First et al members did not infiltrate the Liberal Party. Kroger and his allies deliberately recruited them to make the party hard right.

With the benefit of hindsight, now might be a good time to ask, what the **** were the LNP thinking?

Labor ran on a platform of we will fix Melbourne growth problems by building infrastructure for Melbourne.
LNP ran on a platform of we will fix Melbourne growth problems by building infrastructure for the Country, so people move away from Melbourne.

Labor has crushed the LNP in metropolitan seats, while the LNP has performed (relatively) better in the regions. If your solutions for the people of Melbourne is to in effect, ask them to consider moving to country - should this result actually be a surprise?

Labor plans for Melbourne as it is and will be. Liberals talked about having people move to the country. Plenty of well off people saw that was laughable in the short term and would take decades in the long term and picked Labor.

 

[Hawk Dork]

A few of those are marginal as well, like Julia Banks seat.

Savvas was hinting Banks would run as an independent but possibly not in her current seat.
There was a smirk Im assuming she might go to unseat a safer Lib in an adjoining seat ????... a bit of pay back maybe

Suggesting we may find out this week as she might end up on the cross bench

 

[Crankyhawk]

Yes, maybe 0 seats...

 

[GreyCrow]

Answer me this one question then:-

-Was the perpetrator who terrorised the city with a knife, and killed Sisto, dark-skinned or wasn't he?

If he wasn't, then the police person shot the wrong guy, and should be facing investigation.

My point is, while not all dark skinned persons commit crimes, neither can you deny that there are none who ever do.

Criminals come in all shapes, races and creeds.

To show that I am not racist, how do you feel about Trolley Man, who was lauded as a hero, yet has turned out to be on a number of aggravated burgulary charges?

I don't think we will have a conservative govt for a long time.

I think society is gripped with political correctness, and people don't want to be seen as not being inclusive, racist, sexist, homophobic etc, so they vote in a way which makes them feel like they are a good person who accepts all.

The media and the Left have made conservatives out to be worse than Nazis, and with social media being so prominent, you will never get hard-nosed conservatives whose No1 priority is getting the budget into surplus, as caring for people has become more important, and many think that you can't be both a nice person and be wise with money as well.

What you have is massive immigration stuffing up the political systems in this country. Virtually all immigrants vote labor because they want more immigration to bring in their extended families and then want more social welfare handouts to support their non-contributory lifestyle at the expense of the Australian taxpayer. The political party likely to deliver this is labor who have long since given up representing working class Australians and are pretty much now the party for ideological politics, SJWs, queers and immigrants.

It is little wonder that politicians of the ilk of Tony Burke will write to the Immigration Minister in support of visas for extremist islamic hate preachers but the ABC can only report about two au pairs (those greatest sin was that they were white).

The dilution of what it is to be Australian makes me think you should only get to vote if you've been born in the country. It would also be a good idea if governments stopped funding the ABC and SBS which is essentially just a subsidy for labor's agenda.

Libs be like " thank **** this blokes not a party member "

I think they are. And thats a good thing

Starting to think SA voted lib just to be edgy

One thing about the Andrews government is it just gets on with the job of doing the things voters expect from a state government, we rarely if ever see members of the government carrying on with petty name calling or playing one group off against another, so yes the anti immigration message from the Liberals would have hurt them.

I wasnt a fan of Marshall here in SA and keep waiting for him and the Libs to stumble, but I also have to acknowledge the steady as she goes job and doing as they promised.

Governments can only and should only do that

 

[ClokesShankedIt]

Liberals talked about having people move to the country. Plenty of well off people saw that was laughable in the short term and would take decades in the long term and picked Labor.

Obviously there is a way to go but it's encouraging to see an assault on that thinking from within the right. Are people supposed to leave their friends and family behind so they can buy a house in Omeo so that governments can use every lever at their disposal to keep house prices at bubble levels to maintain the facade that we have an economy not based on bullshit?

 

[DaRick]

The 2022 election is 4 years away, a bit earlier to call the result.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queensland_state_election,_2012
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queensland_state_election,_2015

As a Queenslander, I can confirm that those results were in part caused by optional preferential voting (which Victoria doesn't have) and also because both the Bligh/Newman governments made serious mistakes RE selling/'leasing' assets. The ALP government Bligh was leading was also tired and increasingly ineffective. Newman on the other hand misled his way into power, had an unhealthy authoritarian streak and transformed from a fairly positive mayor into an angry, combative individual who liked picking fights.

From afar, Andrews doesn't seem to fit into either category. The Victorians on this board have generally claimed that he is a no-nonsense, productive Premier who has honoured many of his promises and I have no reason to question them.

 

[Bombermania]

A couple of things:-

1) All the people saying that Sudanese don't commit crime.

Sorry, my eyesight must be going, as I am sure that the guy running around in the city a couple of weeks ago with a knife, killing one and injuring two others, was black-skinned. I must be wrong, as it is only white people who commit crime, according to lefties.

2) Niceness seems more important than money.

Obviously, voters care more about people being nice, and being nice to certain groups, rather than if they are making money. Lefties care more about being "nice" and accepting everyone (except those who don't agree with their view of the world) , and would rather just hate the rich, rather than work hard and make money.

3) You are all voting for the ALP now.

A lot of you who voted are fickle.

Why? Because you are all voting Labor now, but come in four or eight years, you will then be pissed off with them, and throw them out of office, and vote in the other mob.

This isn't like Cuba, where they keep the same government for decades. Australians get bored with governments, and even ones who are still doing good (like the Howard govt in 2007) are thrown out because people get bored and want a change.

You wait, the comments you make now, will be reversed in four or eight years, and then you will wonder why you kept in the Andrews government as long as you did.

1) All the people saying that Sudanese don't commit crime.

No one is saying African Australians don't commit crime because they do, what people are saying is that it is BS to base your whole campaign on "just locking them up", voters want a government that has a plan, and has policies, not just shallow slogans that seem better suited to a Trump rally than from a party wanting to run the state of Victoria.

The Liberals never discussed police numbers or building new police stations, it was just "lock them up" okay that is nice but what then, also there was a sense the Liberals just didn't have any policies and people remember the last Liberal government's performance which was fairly ordinary so when they present with an even thinner policy platform, the voters went nah thanks.

The terrorism event is largely a federal issue, as ASIO and the AFP are federal government bodies.

2) Niceness seems more important than money.

I would change the word "niceness" to "grown up"

In a number of seats it is actually the rich booths that have swrung the most, in Hawthorn, several of the largest swings have occurred in booths surrounded by houses valued well above the suburban median.

In Box Hill, the Liberals appear to have lost booths in Balwyn, and in the richest of them all, Toorak has swung hard against the Liberals with one booth going 50.5 to 49.5 TPP.

3) You are all voting for the ALP now.

No one is expecting seats like Brighton, Caulfield, Sandringham and Hawthorn to become ALP heartland and the outer eastern suburbs have been swingland since the early 1980s with Box Hill being a long time bellweather seat seeming to return to form.

No one would expect the voters to return the government with this kind of majority in 2022, but that will depend on how quickly the Liberal Party get their act together.