Rumour Patrick Cripps will go home to WA if Carlton miss the finals in 2021

[Koutamightafides]

The point is, clubs don't get to pick where the player goes to. If he nominates west coast under the above scenario carlton wouldn't match the offer. It's that simple.

If Cripps goes to carlton with his GF/fiance back in Perth and says i'm heading back to Perth to be with family and I want to play for west coast you don't just get to go to the dockers and go hey, can you offer him 200k more a year, get his manager to talk him into playing for you and then once you've done that we'll match the free agency bid so we can extract as much value in picks and players out of you as we can.

Clubs, no matter what the club is will almost always extract the best they can out of a situation but if Cripps nominates west coast with those season parameters Carlton aren't holding the cards.

Oh and whether we could fit him into the salary cap? A retiring Hutchings, Hurn, Kennedy and if Cripps comes in likely Redden would certainly cover the wage of Cripps and 3 draftees. Rotham and Witherden are there now and ready now to replace Hurn (Duggan the other defender who is likely moving into the midfield), Hutchings is outside of the best 22, Cripps would replace Redden, Oscar Allen would replace Kennedy and Bailey Williams would be in the side as the second ruck/resting forward.

Don't be surprised is all of Williams, Allen, Rotham and Witherden all play 10-15+ games each this year.

If you think Carlton wouldn't match the offer you're either crazy or stupid , no way would they just take one pick as compensation even if it was pick 2 , no way no how . That's simple .

 

[Scotland]

That makes it WC's problem then. You're out of your mind if you think Carlton will accept pick 4 for Cripps. And there's 0% chance he'll walk to the PSD. Unless if West Coast trades out players to Carlton, or to others for several first rounders (just like Freo would have to), Cripps won't be going anywhere.

If he's out of contract and doesn't sign, he's going somewhere.

Geelong got 14, 24, 33 and a future first for Tim Kelly. GWS got 13, 15 20 for Jeremy Cameron and two future seconds. Gold Coast dug their heels in demanding Hawthorn didn't have for Jaeger O'Meara and the winner out of that trade was St Kilda.

Trading in the AFL isn't that hard to follow. With the hit rates of draft players players go for less than they are really worth every year. 2018 Geelong wanted picks WC didn't have, Kelly held to contract. 2019 Geelong wanted a combination of picks WC had, negotiations took place and Kelly was traded. Same with Jeremy Cameron. GWS weighed up pick 10ish compo vs what Geelong had and matched, got a better deal. There's not some magic scenario where Cripps goes for some NBA style mega trade. If Carlton fans believe that means he won't ever leave Carlton good for them, but in reality that's not how it works. Carlton have also gone 18th, 16th, 11th the last 3 years and added experience this off season. The worst combination of factors for Carlton with Cripps is finishing above a team he wants to go to.

Academic IMO. I think Carlton will be around the mark of 8th/9th this year and Cripps will decide to stay, at least for another 2-3 years. If he wants to leave after 10+ years as a UFA then Carlton really do have no say in it.

 

[Tbonefreo]

I’ve heard it on the grapevine, that the Aquinas Mafia have spoke to him.

The Kojonup Family has made it clear, that it’s their turf.

Underrated post

 

[Ash24]

If he's out of contract and doesn't sign, he's going somewhere.

Geelong got 14, 24, 33 and a future first for Tim Kelly. GWS got 13, 15 20 for Jeremy Cameron and two future seconds. Gold Coast dug their heels in demanding Hawthorn didn't have for Jaeger O'Meara and the winner out of that trade was St Kilda.

Trading in the AFL isn't that hard to follow. With the hit rates of draft players players go for less than they are really worth every year. 2018 Geelong wanted picks WC didn't have, Kelly held to contract. 2019 Geelong wanted a combination of picks WC had, negotiations took place and Kelly was traded. Same with Jeremy Cameron. GWS weighed up pick 10ish compo vs what Geelong had and matched, got a better deal. There's not some magic scenario where Cripps goes for some NBA style mega trade. If Carlton fans believe that means he won't ever leave Carlton good for them, but in reality that's not how it works. Carlton have also gone 18th, 16th, 11th the last 3 years and added experience this off season. The worst combination of factors for Carlton with Cripps is finishing above a team he wants to go to.

Academic IMO. I think Carlton will be around the mark of 8th/9th this year and Cripps will decide to stay, at least for another 2-3 years. If he wants to leave after 10+ years as a UFA then Carlton really do have no say in it.

No, I definitely agree with you. I don't think I ever said that there's no chance of him leaving and honestly, we don't know how high that 'chance' may be.

On one hand side his family is in WA, his partner's mental health is a bit of a worry, and after 7 or so years playing for Carlton, he has seen 0 success.

However, he has also said multiple times that he knows Carlton are on the brink of something special, and that it's much more important for him to stay through the tough times.

At the end of the day, we have no idea what's going on inside his head. But, all that I know is that if he does decide to leave, it will be a big trade involving 3-4 first rounders.

 

[pK75]

I didn't say straight swap though did I .

By the end of this year Cerra will be worth more than Cripps on the open market purely based on his age and output, he’s 21 and plays like Pendlebury which means he’ll have more longevity than Cripps who plays a crash and bash style which has hurt his body. How many shoulder reco’s is he up to now? Cerra will have 10 years ahead of him playing at an elite level while Cripps has maybe 3 years left (if his body holds up) as everyone else has said there’s still a lot to play out and relative ladder position (and the resultant compo pick) would have a lot to do with the makeup of any potential deal, if Freo finish above Carlton, Cerra would have to have a massive desire to return to Victoria to even consider wanting to go to the blues, but if that did happen, I can see a scenario where Carlton don’t match an offer to get the free pick from the AFL, then use that compo pick to trade for Cerra, which would be unders on the open market but means The blues get to keep their first round pick and get Cerra for Cripps.

 

[Koutamightafides]

By the end of this year Cerra will be worth more than Cripps on the open market purely based on his age and output, he’s 21 and plays like Pendlebury which means he’ll have more longevity than Cripps who plays a crash and bash style which has hurt his body. How many shoulder reco’s is he up to now? Cerra will have 10 years ahead of him playing at an elite level while Cripps has maybe 3 years left (if his body holds up) as everyone else has said there’s still a lot to play out and relative ladder position (and the resultant compo pick) would have a lot to do with the makeup of any potential deal, if Freo finish above Carlton, Cerra would have to have a massive desire to return to Victoria to even consider wanting to go to the blues, but if that did happen, I can see a scenario where Carlton don’t match an offer to get the free pick from the AFL, then use that compo pick to trade for Cerra, which would be unders on the open market but means The blues get to keep their first round pick and get Cerra for Cripps.

You're hilarious .

 

[Ash24]

By the end of this year Cerra will be worth more than Cripps on the open market purely based on his age and output, he’s 21 and plays like Pendlebury which means he’ll have more longevity than Cripps who plays a crash and bash style which has hurt his body. How many shoulder reco’s is he up to now? Cerra will have 10 years ahead of him playing at an elite level while Cripps has maybe 3 years left (if his body holds up) as everyone else has said there’s still a lot to play out and relative ladder position (and the resultant compo pick) would have a lot to do with the makeup of any potential deal, if Freo finish above Carlton, Cerra would have to have a massive desire to return to Victoria to even consider wanting to go to the blues, but if that did happen, I can see a scenario where Carlton don’t match an offer to get the free pick from the AFL, then use that compo pick to trade for Cerra, which would be unders on the open market but means The blues get to keep their first round pick and get Cerra for Cripps.

I get that you're a Freo supporter, but come on mate this is simply ridiculous. Let's unpack it.

1) "Cerra will be worth more than Cripps this year based on age and output" - Cripps at only 25 has barely reached his prime, and has much more ahead of him. You think a 21 year old who averages across his 3 years only 15 touches, 3 tackles and 1 clearance a game is worth more than arguably the best inside mid currently in the league?

2) "How many shoulder reconstructions is he up to now?" - Had his first one last year. The only injury across his 8 year career accredited to his "crash and bash style". Broke his leg in 2017 by copping a mighty kick to his calf by Jayden Hunt. Those two are the only injuries he's ever had.

3) "Cripps has maybe 3 years left" - So he'll retire when he's 28? For a guy who keeps improving year on year, that sure seems like a mighty stretch.

4) "Carlton get a compo pick from the AFL for Cripps" - Even if Cripps wanted to leave (which according to all reports to date, he doesn't), in what crazy world would Carlton accept anything less than several first rounders for Cripps?

5) "Blues keep their 2021 first rounder, and get Cerra for Cripps." - I don't think I even need to say anything for this one.

6) ~ every heard of proper punctuation? I counted a grand total of two sentences in that entire seven line paragraph. ~

 

[Obeanie1]

I get that you're a Freo supporter, but come on mate this is simply ridiculous. Let's unpack it.

1) "Cerra will be worth more than Cripps this year based on age and output" - Cripps at only 25 has barely reached his prime, and has much more ahead of him. You think a 21 year old who averages across his 3 years only 15 touches, 3 tackles and 1 clearance a game is worth more than arguably the best inside mid currently in the league?

2) "How many shoulder reconstructions is he up to now?" - Had his first one last year. The only injury across his 8 year career accredited to his "crash and bash style". Broke his leg in 2017 by copping a mighty kick to his calf by Jayden Hunt. Those two are the only injuries he's ever had.

3) "Cripps has maybe 3 years left" - So he'll retire when he's 28? For a guy who keeps improving year on year, that sure seems like a mighty stretch.

4) "Carlton get a compo pick from the AFL for Cripps" - Even if Cripps wanted to leave (which according to all reports to date, he doesn't), in what crazy world would Carlton accept anything less than several first rounders for Cripps?

5) "Blues keep their 2021 first rounder, and get Cerra for Cripps." - I don't think I even need to say anything for this one.

6) ~ every heard of proper punctuation? I counted a grand total of two sentences in that entire seven line paragraph. ~

You are over valuing Cripps.

Id rather a semi proven 21 year old gun mid with no injury issues and 10 years left in his body.

Especially one who can kick well.

 

[Laphroaig]

I can't believe this thread is still producing fanciful "but what ifs". If my uncle had **** he'd be my auntie. But that doesn't mean I'm trying to think of ways to find the cash to buy him a frock.

Cripps has said publicly he does not want to leave. Carlton has said publicly that the deal required to re-sign him will be put on the table. It's over.

 

[Ash24]

You are over valuing Cripps.

Id rather a semi proven 21 year old gun mid with no injury issues and 10 years left in his body.

Especially one who can kick well.

I'm overvaluing Cripps? You brought in Kelly for 4 first rounders yourself! Yes they're both elite players, but Cripps in my mind is worth more than Kelly regardless if you overpaid.

And it still baffles me that people think Cripps has "injury issues". FFS, he has his first proper injury in 8 years and people are acting like he's the new Alex Johnson.

 

[Off Tap]

Unless the eagles find a way to let go of enough players to equate to four or five picks in the 10-20 range, Cripps won't be able to go anywhere.

5 x 20 (pick 20 = 912 points) = 4,560 points = Picks 2 and 4 (4,551 points)

Cripps is worth a top 3 pick, plus two late first/early second rounders.

Picks 17 and 18 = 2,015 points = pick 4
Top 3 pick plus 4

Essendon could have had him for 6,7 &8 .

6, 7 & 8 = 4,946 points = picks 1 and 5 (4,878 points)

With the revelation that Cerra won't be in a hurry to resign I'd be happy to take him and two top ten picks...

Cerra would command a top 15 pick by himself at worst and that's being generous to you. More like a top 10 = 3 top 10 picks.

Picks 9, 10 and 15 = 3,976
Picks 3 & 4 = 3,912

WOW!!!

Picks 2 & 4
Picks 1-3 & 4
Picks 1 & 5
Picks 3 & 4

I understand that equating points to picks isn't an exact science but this is just fantasyland stuff right here. And in a draft that's supposed to be one of the strongest ever.

 

[Ash24]

5 x 20 (pick 20 = 912 points) = 4,560 points = Picks 2 and 4 (4,551 points)


Picks 17 and 18 = 2,015 points = pick 4
Top 3 pick plus 4


6, 7 & 8 = 4,946 points = picks 1 and 5 (4,878 points)


Cerra would command a top 15 pick by himself at worst and that's being generous to you. More like a top 10 = 3 top 10 picks.

Picks 9, 10 and 15 = 3,976
Picks 3 & 4 = 3,912

WOW!!!

Picks 2 & 4
Picks 1-3 & 4
Picks 1 & 5
Picks 3 & 4

I understand that equating points to picks isn't an exact science but this is just fantasyland stuff right here. And in a draft that's supposed to be one of the strongest ever.

Great stuff mate, thanks. Can I ask what you believe Cripps/Cerra are worth?

 

[GC2015]

Say what you will about him being a past Coleman medalist, across his 8 year career Cameron has averaged just over 2 goals a game, or about 45 goals a season.

Let's be honest here, a KPF who kicks around 50 a year is much easier to get your hands on than one of the best, if not the best, inside mids currently in the league.

I think you're undervaluing KPFs who regularly kick over 50 goals because it suits your Cripps narrative but I won't argue that because it's subjective.

So knowing that Cameron is worth pick 13, 15, and 20 (all which are picks between 10 and 20 ), you would think that Cripps would be worth another pick in that range to truly match his value.

Not such a "ridiculous statement" after all?

It's still a ridiculous statement. Why do you just assume Cripps is worth an extra first round pick when compared to Cameron? You're worth whatever a club is willing to pay for you and Geelong made it very clear that they didn't agree with GWS's demands for Cameron but acquiesced right at the end of the trade period to save face. If Carlton tells West Coast that they want five first round picks for Cripps then they'll be laughed at.

I'm overvaluing Cripps? You brought in Kelly for 4 first rounders yourself! Yes they're both elite players, but Cripps in my mind is worth more than Kelly regardless if you overpaid.

And it still baffles me that people think Cripps has "injury issues". FFS, he has his first proper injury in 8 years and people are acting like he's the new Alex Johnson.

Four first rounders for Kelly? Where on earth did you get that?

Tim Kelly was traded for pick 14 (late first rounder), pick 24 (mid second rounder), West Coast's 2020 first rounder (pick 18 - late first rounder) and pick 33 (late second rounder). So Kelly was actually traded for two late first rounders, a mid second rounder and a late second rounder. Not four first rounders. West Coast also received a future third rounder in return.

 

[Pistol Night]

He sure will. Then he'll return to Melbourne to start pre season with Carlton

 

[Ash24]

I'll start by saying that Cripps has said several times that he's very excited by what the blues are building, and it's more important for him to stick through the tough times and have success later. He has also said that although he is from interstate, Melbourne has become his 2nd home and he's developed many great relationships here.

Cripps doesn't seem like the type to leave to chase a flag. If he was to leave, it would be to support his partner through her mental heath troubles.

Four first rounders for Kelly?

I apologise, don't know why I said that.

If Carlton tells West Coast that they want five first round picks for Cripps then they'll be laughed at.

Cripps is a free agent. Carlton would 100% match if he wanted to leave. If Carlton wanted to ask for 5 first rounders and WC don't accept, Cripps stays. Carlton has all the power in this situation.

I think you're undervaluing KPFs who regularly kick over 50 goals because it suits your Cripps narrative but I won't argue that because it's subjective.

No, and I'm sure anyone can agree. A KPF who averages 45 goals a season is much easier for a club to get, compared to arguably the best inside mid in the competition.

 

[masai]

Underrated post

I’m no intellectual, .......... my family wouldn’t know what the word meant.

I think that the Aquinas, Mafia, Kojonup word connection went over zooming like a jet over peoples heads. Obviously, didn’t ring a bell.

 

[Rob]

You are over valuing Cripps.

Id rather a semi proven 21 year old gun mid with no injury issues and 10 years left in his body.

Especially one who can kick well.

Big difference is the 21 year old you'd have the trade the farm for.

Cripps (potentially) comes for free.

 

[Ash24]

Cripps (potentially) comes for free.

Not directed just at you, but why do people think that Carlton would let their best player, captain, million dollar, franchise player walk away for free?

 

[GC2015]

Cripps is a free agent. Carlton would 100% match if he wanted to leave. If Carlton wanted to ask for 5 first rounders and WC don't accept, Cripps stays. Carlton has all the power in this situation.

That's not how it works. Just purely matching a free agency bid doesn't guarantee the player stays if a trade can't be agree upon. Cripps would have two options if the clubs can't agree to a trade - stay with Carlton or enter the national/preseason draft. Carlton does not have all the power in this situation.

Although they weren't free agents, we've seen what happens when a trade can't be agreed upon with Jack Martin and Kurt Tippett. They end up at their club of their choice through the draft and the original club moves on empty handed.

No, and I'm sure anyone can agree. A KPF who averages 45 goals a season is much easier for a club to get, compared to arguably the best inside mid in the competition.

Why do you keep changing your numbers? Your original post said 50 goals a season and now it's 45? You also originally said Cripps was worth four/five picks in the 10-20 range and then it became four picks "around the 20 mark".

Also, I'd be very hesitant to say Cripps is arguably the best inside mid in the competition when he played every game last year and didn't even finish inside the top 10 in the Brownlow count a few months ago.

 

[Rich01]

With the best and fairest now cancelled, when do Carlton fans think he will announce his new contract? Just before the first round?

 

[Rob]

Not directed just at you, but why do people think that Carlton would let their best player, captain, million dollar, franchise player walk away for free?

Multiple reasons - many of which have already been on display with other clubs. Contract size, contract length, that you don't want a disgruntled player on your list that doesn't want to be there, cap space (and don't underestimate that at Carlton given the huge dollars they've paid for other players) or even the compo might be pretty decent.

Very few RFAs have their bid matched - if it was that easy you'd see it a lot more often.

 

[Numero Uno]

Underrated post

you need a tin foil hat though to understand it...carry on freo

 

[Numero Uno]

what happens happens...not to fussed

one thing for certain is that if he does nominate WC, the pro Victorian narrative and salty Vic media will go into overdrive..Just like it happened with Kelly.

Apparently you can only nominate clubs when you are going back to Victoria

 

[GC2015]

Just a reminder that Stephen Silvagni flagged the possibility of this rumour being true in October 2020:

 

[Scotland]

But, all that I know is that if he does decide to leave, it will be a big trade involving 3-4 first rounders.

Except you don't know that. You want to believe that because you support Carlton and Cripps is your best player.

How many trades in the history of the AFL draft era have involved more than two first round picks?

Big name free agents:

Goddard (27) pick 13 compo
Franklin (26) pick 19 compo
Dangerfield (25) picks 9 & 28, Dean Gore
Lynch (26) pick 3 compo
Cameron (27) picks 13, 15, 20 with two future second round picks back the other way

I don't count Frawley or Daisy because their FA compo was higher than their trade value. Daniher and Zac Williams borderline. There have been a few like Crouch, Rockliff where clubs originally expected a band 1 compo and didn't get it.