Play Nice Politics # 4 - The madness continues here.....

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[BRL121]

It’s also been slow because of the politics of a country with zero Covid being prioritised over places in grave need. They are not saying this publicly but it’s obviously a thing. Also our approvals were fully vetted and not emergency approvals.
I hear just a minute ago on ABC, the Northern Territory has announced they will vaccinate everyone 16 years and older in Alice Springs as of now. I didn’t even know The (presumably) Pfizer jab had been approved for under 18’s in Australia. Let alone their ability to acquire doses.

Alice Springs residents urged to get coronavirus vaccinations ahead of influx of tourists - ABC News

www.google.com.au

Both of our approvals are temporary, i.e., emergency. See the official documentation.

 

[1970crow]

Taylor and Morrison absolutely butchering energy policy. Say hello to expensive stranded assets and wasted investment on the wrong horses. Unbelievable how stubborn they still are.

Cliffs?

 

[Vader]

Vader it seems 18 of 1.8 m doses of AZ have been attributed to the Astra Zennica Covid vaccine. I can’t find any actual deaths attributed to the vaccine. Approximately 1525 people present to hospitals around the country monthly with serious blood clotting issues. To me at 1 : 100,000 it is a negligible issue not worth even considering. Maybe my personal risk limit is high but I reckon anyone baulking vaccination at 1:100,000 odds are showing cowardice and selfishness. We all need to do our part is something I’ve heard way too many times this last 12 months.

newsGP - No evidence that recent blood clot deaths were linked to COVID vaccine

The TGA has confirmed there is ‘no likely association’ between the deaths of two NSW men and the AstraZeneca vaccine.

www1.racgp.org.au

1:100,000 is not negligible, particularly considering the alternatives are zero risk.

Right now, there is zero risk of dying of COVID in Australia, so any vaccine with an associated risk which is higher than that is unacceptable. The state-operated quarantine facilities are doing an excellent job of preventing the disease from getting into the community, and they have been very quick to get onto any cases which have escaped quarantine.

People know that if they wait long enough, they will be able to get one of the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer or Moderna), which don't have the blood clotting side effects and are significantly more effective against the variants.

The AZ blood clotting risk makes sense if the chances of dying of the disease are higher, because the virus is widespread in the community (e.g. the UK) - but that's clearly not the case in Australia at present.

I can understand why you want to get AZ now, so you can travel overseas in the short-term. I don't understand how anyone in their right mind, without your short-term imperative, would want to be injected with the AZ muck.

 

[Vader]

Both of our approvals are temporary, i.e., emergency. See the official documentation.

"Provisional", not "temporary", though I'm not sure there's that much difference.

 

[BRL121]

"Provisional", not "temporary", though I'm not sure there's that much difference.

two years, I believe

 

[mistylake]

There has been one death so far in Australia from the AZ clotting routine.

I'm lost for words at your bolded statement. Those baulking against a quick AZ vaccination, such as myself, are simply being logical.
It's the bloody government cave-in to the medical advice that's banning me from having Pfizer now, as I would wish. Nothing cowardly about it, and no more selfish or dangerous than your decision to go overseas at this difficult time.

Refusing to be vaccinated slows the rate at allowing people seperate from family from reuniting indefinitely. This is guaranteed harmful to a large number of people hear and now. Me travelling overseas in no way impacts you now or in the future. I’m vaccinated and will quarantine on return which is a higher standard than what is being suggested to open borders. So yes putting yourself above the majority of Australians accepting only Pfizer is absolutely selfish.

 

[mistylake]

1:100,000 is not negligible, particularly considering the alternatives are zero risk.

Right now, there is zero risk of dying of COVID in Australia, so any vaccine with an associated risk which is higher than that is unacceptable. The state-operated quarantine facilities are doing an excellent job of preventing the disease from getting into the community, and they have been very quick to get onto any cases which have escaped quarantine.

People know that if they wait long enough, they will be able to get one of the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer or Moderna), which don't have the blood clotting side effects and are significantly more effective against the variants.

The AZ blood clotting risk makes sense if the chances of dying of the disease are higher, because the virus is widespread in the community (e.g. the UK) - but that's clearly not the case in Australia at present.

I can understand why you want to get AZ now, so you can travel overseas in the short-term. I don't understand how anyone in their right mind, without your short-term imperative, would want to be injected with the AZ muck.

There ain’t a medication ever invented that risk free. Not aspirin, Paracetamol or any over the counter med.

 

[Vader]

Refusing to be vaccinated slows the rate at allowing people seperate from family from reuniting indefinitely. This is guaranteed harmful to a large number of people hear and now. Me travelling overseas in no way impacts you now or in the future. I’m vaccinated and will quarantine on return which is a higher standard than what is being suggested to open borders. So yes putting yourself above the majority of Australians accepting only Pfizer is absolutely selfish.

Even if people wanted to get vaccinated, the best we could be at right now is <10% of the vaccinations required. As of Monday 3.1 million vaccines had been administered, with another 1.5 million in storage. Best case scenario right now is 4.6 of 50 million shots.

Yes, there's an issue of people being reluctant to have that AZ muck injected into their bodies - but the bigger issue remains the lack of vaccines in this country.

People holding off, trying to avoid AZ, is entirely understandable. Personally, I think you'd have to be batshit crazy to get AZ, if there wasn't some other imperative forcing you to get the vaccine early (e.g. your trip to Indonesia).

 

[Vader]

There ain’t a medication ever invented that risk free. Not aspirin, Paracetamol or any over the counter med.

Yep... but they don't come with a 1 in 100,000 chance of killing you, when there's an equally viable alternative that is almost risk free.

 

[mistylake]

Yep... but they don't come with a 1 in 100,000 chance of killing you, when there's an equally viable alternative that is almost risk free.

A mate of mine had a Panadol once at work and nearly died. Found out that day he was allergic to paracetamol.
The Pfizer also causes clots in some people. I’ve posted links previously. All vaccines have clotting risks but like this case it’s rare and not a fault of the vaccine it’s a susceptibility issue of individuals.

 

[mistylake]

Even if people wanted to get vaccinated, the best we could be at right now is <10% of the vaccinations required. As of Monday 3.1 million vaccines had been administered, with another 1.5 million in storage. Best case scenario right now is 4.6 of 50 million shots.

Yes, there's an issue of people being reluctant to have that AZ muck injected into their bodies - but the bigger issue remains the lack of vaccines in this country.

People holding off, trying to avoid AZ, is entirely understandable. Personally, I think you'd have to be batshit crazy to get AZ, if there wasn't some other imperative forcing you to get the vaccine early (e.g. your trip to Indonesia).

The entire UK has had AZ. There’s no issue it’s safe and effective. They have already been able to open to tourism in a limited way on the effectiveness of Astra Zennica vaccine.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

1:100,000 is not negligible, particularly considering the alternatives are zero risk.

Right now, there is zero risk of dying of COVID in Australia, so any vaccine with an associated risk which is higher than that is unacceptable. The state-operated quarantine facilities are doing an excellent job of preventing the disease from getting into the community, and they have been very quick to get onto any cases which have escaped quarantine.

People know that if they wait long enough, they will be able to get one of the mRNA vaccines (Pfizer or Moderna), which don't have the blood clotting side effects and are significantly more effective against the variants.

The AZ blood clotting risk makes sense if the chances of dying of the disease are higher, because the virus is widespread in the community (e.g. the UK) - but that's clearly not the case in Australia at present.

I can understand why you want to get AZ now, so you can travel overseas in the short-term. I don't understand how anyone in their right mind, without your short-term imperative, would want to be injected with the AZ muck.

The chance of dying from COVAX v COVID are much, much, much, much lower. Just need to look at the actual deaths from each, both in Australia & worldwide to see the undisputable evidence. There is not zero risk from dying from COVID in Australia as we have 910 deaths so far. I can guarantee you the number of deaths from COVAX will be minimal & any deaths will be due to people with other underlying issues.

The risk from blood clotting from AZ is actually not that much different from other COVAX like Pfizer.

It's unfortunate that misinformation from the media & likes of your post are scaring off people getting COVAX. The sooner all vulnerable people in Australia & Worldwide are vaccinated, the better & then we see a reduced risk of death from COVID.

 

[Vader]

The entire UK has had AZ. There’s no issue it’s safe and effective. They have already been able to open to tourism in a limited way on the effectiveness of Astra Zennica vaccine.

Except that there are safer and more effective options out there - and people just need to wait a while for them to become available, with almost zero risk of dying (from COVID) in the interval.

Compared to Pfizer, AZ is neither particularly safe, nor particularly effective (against the variants - particularly the South African variant). Why on earth would you opt for the vaccine which is less effective and less safe, if there wasn't some short-term imperative involved? You are a special case, because you have a short-term need due to your trip to Indonesia. Anyone without that short-term imperative would have to be batshit crazy to get AZ pumped into their arm.

 

[BRL121]

The chance of dying from COVAX v COVID are much, much, much, much lower. Just need to look at the actual deaths from each, both in Australia & worldwide to see the undisputable evidence. There is not zero risk from dying from COVID in Australia as we have 910 deaths so far. I can guarantee you the number of deaths from COVAX will be minimal & any deaths will be due to people with other underlying issues.

The risk from blood clotting from AZ is actually not that much different from other COVAX like Pfizer.

It's unfortunate that misinformation from the media & likes of your post are scaring off people getting COVAX. The sooner all vulnerable people in Australia & Worldwide are vaccinated, the better & then we see a reduced risk of death from COVID.

What exactly is the misinformation in Vader's post? You are talking like a public servant considering only the broader scale, with no thought for the individuals. Are you suggesting that people with underlying issues should run to get an AZ vaccination willy-nilly and just accept the extra possibility of death?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

What exactly is the misinformation in Vader's post? You are talking like a public servant considering only the broader scale, with no thought for the individuals. Are you suggesting that people with underlying issues should run to get an AZ vaccination willy-nilly and just accept the extra possibility of death?

Vader - claimed that the chance of dying from COVAX are higher than COVID itself - which is completely false.

He has also continually talked down AZ & his posting is about as accurate as his talking down of Fog.

Yes, I work in the health industry & I know what I'm talking about unlike other misinformation being spread.

 

[BRL121]

Vader - claimed that the chance of dying from COVAX are higher than COVID itself - which is completely false.

He has also continually talked down AZ & his posting is about as accurate as his talking down of Fog.

Yes, I work in the health industry & I know what I'm talking about unlike other misinformation being spread.

I think you have misinterpreted what he said. He was referring to the chance of dying from COVID now in Australia (Canberra), which is SFA under a continuation of the current circumstances. This justifies waiting for Pfizer. Regarding AZ, are you saying it has a significant effectiveness against the South African strain, for example?

 

[Vader]

Vader - claimed that the chance of dying from COVAX are higher than COVID itself - which is completely false.

I didn't say that at all - I assume you just misinterpreted my previous post.

I said that the chances of dying from AZ are higher than they are for dying of COVID in Australia - which is blindingly obvious, given that the number of cases in the Australian community in the last month can be counted on the fingers of one hand.

The odds of dying once you have COVID are obviously much higher, as is the risk of dying of COVID in countries where COVID is active in the community - but there is no COVID active in the community in Australia, so the chances of dying from it here are essentially zero.

The chances of an average Australian catching COVID right now is roughly 1 in 5,000,000 (~5 community cases in the last month, from a population of 25 million). It's actually lower than that, as most of those "community cases" were only 1 link away from the quarantine system - and most people are further away than that. The chances of said person dying of COVID right now is roughly 1 in 250,000,000 (assuming fatality rate of 2%). The chances of dying of AZ blood clots is a lot higher than that.

 

[kirky]

There has been one death so far in Australia from the AZ clotting routine.

I'm lost for words at your bolded statement. Those baulking against a quick AZ vaccination, such as myself, are simply being logical.
It's the bloody government cave-in to the medical advice that's banning me from having Pfizer now, as I would wish. Nothing cowardly about it, and no more selfish or dangerous than your decision to go overseas at this difficult time.

So given we have sufficient of the vaccine now and over the next few months to cover the population, should we just open the borders 1st December, and if you haven’t had both injections by then well tough luck?

 

[BRL121]

So given we have sufficient of the vaccine now and over the next few months to cover the population, should we just open the borders 1st December, and if you haven’t had both injections by then well tough luck?

There's sufficient AZ to cover the older people who don't want it, but I don't think sufficient Pfizer to cover everyone under 50 yet.
I expect that the borders won't open by then anyway and that I would be able to access Pfizer by then.

Anyway, as an experimentalist, I'm quite happy to respond to developments as they happen. If there is a sudden rush of COVID in the meantime, and I judge that it could affect me where I live, then I can always get the AZ and curse the government! It's just a matter of optimisation.

 

[Vader]

So given we have sufficient of the vaccine now and over the next few months to cover the population, should we just open the borders 1st December, and if you haven’t had both injections by then well tough luck?

We don't. As of Monday they still had sufficient vaccine doses for less than 10% of the population.

At some point, however, they will have to make that decision. It sure as hell won't be 1st December or 1st January, but there will come a time when they will say "if you haven't been vaccinated by day X then the risk is your responsibility" (or words to that effect). We can't live as a hermit kingdom forever, and we can't allow ourselves to be held back by refuseniks who wish to nominate themselves for the Darwin Awards. People will be given plenty of time to get vaccinated, but we can't wait forever.

 

[Vader]

There's sufficient AZ to cover the older people who don't want it, but I don't think sufficient Pfizer to cover everyone under 50 yet.
I expect that the borders won't open by then anyway and that I would be able to access Pfizer by then.

Anyway, as an experimentalist, I'm quite happy to respond to developments as they happen. If there is a sudden rush of COVID in the meantime, and I judge that it could affect me where I live, then I can always get the AZ and curse the government! It's just a matter of optimisation.

Not yet, there isn't. There's definitely an issue with slow uptake of AZ (understandably so), but even so, AZ stocks aren't yet sufficient for fully vaccinating everyone aged 50+. Not even close.

 

[BRL121]

Not yet, there isn't. There's definitely an issue with slow uptake of AZ (understandably so), but even so, AZ stocks aren't yet sufficient for fully vaccinating everyone aged 50+. Not even close.

I don't know about that. GPs are saying right now that they have stocks sitting around unused waiting for the likes of me (Phase 1b, over 70): this is a widespread occurrence. We are also making it, so for the relevant period under discussion (this year) I don't reckon there will be a problem.
Maybe I should have said "there will be".

 

[Vader]

I don't know about that. GPs are saying right now that they have stocks sitting around unused waiting for the likes of me (Phase 1b, over 70): this is a widespread occurrence. We are also making it, so for the relevant period under discussion (this year) I don't reckon there will be a problem.
Maybe I should have said "there will be".

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-17/covid-vaccine-doses-available-administered-rollout/100144856

3.1 million vaccine doses administered as of Monday, with another 1.5 million doses sitting on the shelf (or in freezers) waiting to be used. That's a total of 4.6 million doses received by Australia to that date. This includes both Pfizer & AZ.

Australia's population is ~25 million, of which ~43% are aged 50+ (and eligible for AZ). That's 10.75 million people aged 50+, each requiring 2 doses - a total of 21.5 million shots.

Even if all of those 4.6 million doses were AZ (which they're not), that's still only 21.4% of the required doses.

The doctors aren't lying - there is more than enough AZ to go around at present, but only because the uptake rates on it are so slow. If everyone who was eligible wanted it today, they'd run out very quickly indeed.

 

[Slippery Pete]

 

[BRL121]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-17/covid-vaccine-doses-available-administered-rollout/100144856

3.1 million vaccine doses administered as of Monday, with another 1.5 million doses sitting on the shelf (or in freezers) waiting to be used. That's a total of 4.6 million doses received by Australia to that date. This includes both Pfizer & AZ.

Australia's population is ~25 million, of which ~43% are aged 50+ (and eligible for AZ). That's 10.75 million people aged 50+, each requiring 2 doses - a total of 21.5 million shots.

Even if all of those 4.6 million doses were AZ (which they're not), that's still only 21.4% of the required doses.

The doctors aren't lying - there is more than enough AZ to go around at present, but only because the uptake rates on it are so slow. If everyone who was eligible wanted it today, they'd run out very quickly indeed.

I don't want to prolong this too much, but from that ABC article, that 1.5m figure is an estimate. According to CSL, they have already supplied 4m doses, and are producing 1m per week. Beforehand, there were overseas supplies of AZ and Pfizer, but it's difficult to get numbers on those. Something doesn't quite add up somewhere.

Anyway, CSL are not lying, and they are supplying 1m per week, so it would only take 17 weeks or so to adminster 2 doses of AZ to all over-50s, and much less than that to over-70s. This is not really a problem. The real problem remains: when will we get a pile of Pfizer?