Banter The Adelaide Board Politics/COVID Thread Part 2 (WARNING NOT FOR THE FAINT-HEARTED)

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Scorpus

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FR0GGY

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adelaidecrows

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5AA are talking about low footy crowds. Everyone has overlooked the simplest explanation, instead going for umpires, food prices etc. The simplest explanation is SA Health scared everyone about going. A lot of older people just think they will die if they so much as go out into a crowd. Combine that with people not being able to afford to miss work. Can't blame people when Nicola was all about 'ducking if the ball comes at you' so you dont touch it and die. I know some parents, that won't go anywhere with their kids, because if they get covid they can't go to school. What can you say other than SA Health tried to kill professional sport for no other reason than for image. You could do everything else in Adelaide but, a full crowd at AO was an issue.
 

kirky

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Kane wins.

Bottle of The Beast on its way.

Do you work in the city?
 
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kirky

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Just on the low ALP PV vote.

There were a number of seats in both Vic and NSW (around 10 in total) where Teal candidates stood. In those seats, you can see that the ALP collapsed and in one case to just 6%. It was a strategic play by ALP voters. It is estimated that this would have added around 0.5-0.8% to the ALP Primary vote.

Now there also was leakage from the ALP to the Greens however this comes back via second preference.

What we do know is the ALP can win an election with 32-33% however the Coalition can’t win with a PV of 35%.

If the current results stand, the Coalition will have its worst result ever holding only 58/59 seats out of 151 (39%). Another record by SmoCo. What a champion!
 

Slippery Pete

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5AA are talking about low footy crowds. Everyone has overlooked the simplest explanation, instead going for umpires, food prices etc. The simplest explanation is SA Health scared everyone about going. A lot of older people just think they will die if they so much as go out into a crowd. Combine that with people not being able to afford to miss work. Can't blame people when Nicola was all about 'ducking if the ball comes at you' so you dont touch it and die. I know some parents, that won't go anywhere with their kids, because if they get covid they can't go to school. What can you say other than SA Health tried to kill professional sport for no other reason than for image. You could do everything else in Adelaide but, a full crowd at AO was an issue.

You also had the vax mandates for 12+ up until a few weeks ago. That doesn’t just affect the person not going, but also the friends and family of that person. It’s just another unneccssary obstacle.

Then all the s**t the AFL is f**cking up, game wise, that we discuss here week in, week out.

What has happened is the habit of going to the footy has been broken for a lot of people, and once it’s broken, it’s really hard to get back.

Serves them right. They treated people like idiots for two years, now they’re suffering the consequences.
 

Vader

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Just on the low ALP PV vote.

There were a number of seats in both Vic and NSW (around 10 in total) where Teal candidates stood. In those seats, you can see that the ALP collapsed and in one case to just 6%. It was a strategic play by ALP voters. It is estimated that this would have added around 0.5-0.8% to the ALP Primary vote.
Yeah... I'm not buying that. Yes, it's a small part of their lower PV - but their PV was down across the board (except in WA), not just in the Teal seats.
 
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MrKK

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Just on the low ALP PV vote.

There were a number of seats in both Vic and NSW (around 10 in total) where Teal candidates stood. In those seats, you can see that the ALP collapsed and in one case to just 6%. It was a strategic play by ALP voters. It is estimated that this would have added around 0.5-0.8% to the ALP Primary vote.

Now there also was leakage from the ALP to the Greens however this comes back via second preference.

What we do know is the ALP can win an election with 32-33% however the Coalition can’t win with a PV of 35%.

If the current results stand, the Coalition will have its worst result ever holding only 58/59 seats out of 151 (39%). Another record by SmoCo. What a champion!
Can you explain the strategy of ALP supporters voting for Teal candidates? How is it better than just voting for the ALP candidate straight up?
 

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Slippery Pete

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Can you explain the strategy of ALP supporters voting for Teal candidates? How is it better than just voting for the ALP candidate straight up?

He’s giving the voters way too much credit.

The voters didn’t know what they were doing.

The “independents” and the ALP knew exactly what they were doing.
 

Crow till I die

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Can you explain the strategy of ALP supporters voting for Teal candidates? How is it better than just voting for the ALP candidate straight up?
He is likely right in that it was strategic - if the labor voters voted labor in those seats they likely don't win OR only pick up a seat or 2. But with a number of disaffected conservative voters choosing the teal as a protest vote maybe, couple that with heavy labor voting for the teal also and all of a sudden the numbers were there to win the seat. My guess is that there will be a lot of conservative voters who turned up on the day thinking they will lodge a protest vote thinking their preference will flow to Liberal and unfortunately for them, the protest vote candidate ended up getting up and will not be aligned to the majority of their views - climate change aside maybe.
 

MrKK

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He is likely right in that it was strategic - if the labor voters voted labor in those seats they likely don't win OR only pick up a seat or 2. But with a number of disaffected conservative voters choosing the teal as a protest vote maybe, couple that with heavy labor voting for the teal also and all of a sudden the numbers were there to win the seat. My guess is that there will be a lot of conservative voters who turned up on the day thinking they will lodge a protest vote thinking their preference will flow to Liberal and unfortunately for them, the protest vote candidate ended up getting up and will not be aligned to the majority of their views - climate change aside maybe.
Thanks, that makes some sense but you wonder how many could be influenced to vote strategically. Also stupid of any Liberal voters who used Teal as their protest vote when all of the indicators said they were a threat to win the seat.
 

Vader

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He is likely right in that it was strategic - if the labor voters voted labor in those seats they likely don't win OR only pick up a seat or 2. But with a number of disaffected conservative voters choosing the teal as a protest vote maybe, couple that with heavy labor voting for the teal also and all of a sudden the numbers were there to win the seat. My guess is that there will be a lot of conservative voters who turned up on the day thinking they will lodge a protest vote thinking their preference will flow to Liberal and unfortunately for them, the protest vote candidate ended up getting up and will not be aligned to the majority of their views - climate change aside maybe.
There was definitely strategic voting by ALP voters in the Teal seats... but that really only affected 6-8 of 176 seats. No doubt it accounts for some of the fall in the ALP's PV, but only a small percentage of it. The ALP PV fell by 2%, and it probably still would have been ~1.8-1.9% without the Teal factor. Yes, the ALP vote fell massively in these Teal seats - but those falls were from a low base anyway. These were safe Liberal seats, with minimal ALP voters to begin with.

Most seats saw Liberal PVs fall by ~6%, and the ALP's by 2%. This happened across the board, except in WA.

A lot of it is due to an increasing number of younger voters who don't feel the same connection to the established parties as their parents did (e.g. rusted on lemmings such as GK or Mutineer). They vote based on who has the best policies, not on personality or party affiliation. This is why both major parties have consistently seen their PVs falling in recent years, with an increasingly large cross-bench the result.
 
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Crow till I die

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There was definitely strategic voting by ALP voters in the Teal seats... but that really only affected 6-8 of 176 seats. No doubt it accounts for some of the fall in the ALP's PV, but only a small percentage of it. The ALP PV fell by 2%, and it probably still would have been ~1.8-1.9% without the Teal factor.

Most seats saw Liberal PVs fall by ~6%, and the ALP's by 2%. This happened across the board, except in WA.

A lot of it is due to an increasing number of younger voters who don't feel the same connection to the established parties as their parents did (e.g. rusted on lemmings such as GK or Mutineer). They vote based on who has the best policies, not on personality or party affiliation. This is why both major parties have consistently seen their PVs falling in recent years, with an increasingly large cross-bench the result.
I agree the vote has dropped across the board - no argument there. But there were specific seats targeted by the teals and Labor have looked like they were in tune with this and worked to oust the Liberal even though Labor themselves didn't win the seat. Better for them to have a left leaning 'independent' there than a liberal from their perspective.
 

Crow till I die

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Thanks, that makes some sense but you wonder how many could be influenced to vote strategically. Also stupid of any Liberal voters who used Teal as their protest vote when all of the indicators said they were a threat to win the seat.
You have to remember there are a lot of people that just turn up on the day to vote and have no idea about the smaller parties and their affiliations. People who may be generally conservative, in their mind were thinking we don't like ScoMo so we will send him a message by not voting for him first and went independent before preferencing liberal - not knowing what the independent really stood for OR only hearing a vague climate action slogan from them.

As a rule, I always pick up the how to vote cards on the day other than from the greens whom i would never ever vote for or follow their how to vote pattern and look where these minor parties are directing their votes to see whether they are left leaning or right leaning - i suppose it give a small insight on the day to better inform my vote as I don't know who most of the minor parties are from a bar of soap
 

fortunatecrow

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Interesting in the Age

Voters can no longer be taken for granted​

By Josh Gordon

May 23, 2022 — 6.45pm

"Talk to Labor candidates who have won or could win traditional Liberal territory in Victoria, and they’ll tell you there was no single reason the Coalition lost in Victoria so comprehensively.

A hodgepodge of issues crop up, from climate change, to the need for manufacturing self-sufficiency, integrity in government, the rising cost of living, the treatment of women, or a sense that Victoria was overlooked and taken for granted by a Sydney-centric prime minister. However, if there is a common theme, it is about the need for genuine ideas and debate, instead of the spin, obfuscation, poor behaviour and hollow promises voters said they had become depressingly accustomed to."
 

Carmo

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On the subject of whether the coalition should go left or right, you can just apply my solution for the left parties wondering whether they should go left or right after the last elections results:

Just run two candidates. A left-er one and a right-er one and let the electorate tell you which direction to go/ what they like more.
 

kirky

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There was definitely strategic voting by ALP voters in the Teal seats... but that really only affected 6-8 of 176 seats. No doubt it accounts for some of the fall in the ALP's PV, but only a small percentage of it. The ALP PV fell by 2%, and it probably still would have been ~1.8-1.9% without the Teal factor. Yes, the ALP vote fell massively in these Teal seats - but those falls were from a low base anyway. These were safe Liberal seats, with minimal ALP voters to begin with.

Most seats saw Liberal PVs fall by ~6%, and the ALP's by 2%. This happened across the board, except in WA.

A lot of it is due to an increasing number of younger voters who don't feel the same connection to the established parties as their parents did (e.g. rusted on lemmings such as GK or Mutineer). They vote based on who has the best policies, not on personality or party affiliation. This is why both major parties have consistently seen their PVs falling in recent years, with an increasingly large cross-bench the result.

The ALP Primary vote is down 0.5%. The Teal candidates had a massive on the ground campaign.

One thing that is crystal clear is you may only be one vote but if you can get your s**t together as a group you can be more powerful than you can imagine.


Who the * is the Informed Medical Options Party?
 
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BRL121

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The ALP Primary vote is down 0.5%. The Teal candidates had a massive on the ground campaign.

One thing that is crystal clear is you may only be one vote but if you can get your s**t together as a group you can be more powerful than you can imagine.


Who the duck is the Informed Medical Options Party?
That's the Slippery Pete party. ;)
 

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