Opinion The Adelaide Board Politics/COVID Thread Part 3

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Mr_Moogle

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Yep..when the defaults happen, the people with money will strike and get lower priced property. God help the kids of tomorrow getting onto the property ladder if mum and dad can't help them

BTW, couple the higher rates with the supply chain issues, additional increases to the cost of construction by moving from 6 stars to 7 stars and you are headed for a perfect storm in the construction sector - it could fall off a cliff and if it does, the flow on effects across all sectors will be horrible
The rich campaigners competing with each other to scoop up those properties will put a floor on prices. It's the money being sucked out of the economy and the effect that will have on businesses that concerns me. I guess that's the point though. An engineered recession to reduce inflation.

Seems like a good time to short the aussie dollar or buy gold. My guess is the RBA won't be able to keep up with the Fed's rate rises, which in turn will destroy the value of the aussie dollar.
 
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Yep..when the defaults happen, the people with money will strike and get lower priced property. God help the kids of tomorrow getting onto the property ladder if mum and dad can't help them

BTW, couple the higher rates with the supply chain issues, additional increases to the cost of construction by moving from 6 stars to 7 stars and you are headed for a perfect storm in the construction sector - it could fall off a cliff and if it does, the flow on effects across all sectors will be horrible
Unlikely. They'll just refinance to increase the term which will bring the repayments back to more manageable levels. They'd have built up so much equity in their properties that this will be no issue.
 

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Crow till I die

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Unlikely. They'll just refinance to increase the term which will bring the repayments back to more manageable levels. They'd have built up so much equity in their properties that this will be no issue.
Not necessarily and under lending rules don't they work out your repayment servicability at a higher rate from memory to ensure you can absorb future rate rate rises. Not too many younger people with a 600k or 700k mortgage could wear an adfitional 2k interest a month.

And again, any negative impacts on the construction industry where numbers of building approvals fall and fast is going to flow on across all sectors and cause real problems
 

George Kramer

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Unlikely. They'll just refinance to increase the term which will bring the repayments back to more manageable levels. They'd have built up so much equity in their properties that this will be no issue.
And if they’ve taken out a loan or increased in the last 3 years? There won’t be room to increase the term. The serviceability rate increases will eat up any increase in terms anyway in terms of affordability.
 
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Not necessarily and under lending rules don't they work out your repayment servicability at a higher rate from memory to ensure you can absorb future rate rate rises. Not too many younger people with a 600k or 700k mortgage could wear an adfitional 2k interest a month.

And again, any negative impacts on the construction industry where numbers of building approvals fall and fast is going to flow on across all sectors and cause real problems
But that’s exactly what the serviceability calcs take into consideration. That you can afford your loan if rates increase by 3%. Which is what they’ve done. So for same circumstances, bank says you can afford your loan.
 
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Australia is mega ****ed. Can't say we didn't do it to ourselves.

Some figures going from an interest rate of 1.95% to 5.26%.

$500,000: Up $929 to $2,765
$600,000: Up $1,114 to $3,317
$700,000: Up $1,300 to $3,870
$800,000: Up $1,486 to $4,423
$900,000: Up $1,671 to $4,976
$1,000,000: Up $1,857 to $5,529

Would explain why house prices are dropping, including average for Sydney back under 1M for the 1st time in years.
 

George Kramer

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But that’s exactly what the serviceability calcs take into consideration. That you can afford your loan if rates increase by 3%. Which is what they’ve done. So for same circumstances, bank says you can afford your loan.
I might be wrong but I thought I read serviceability rates were in the 2s. But as rates increase the serviceability rate will also be higher, inhibiting the ability of some borrowers to be approved for refinancing. Also I’m sure the banks would have factored in higher cost of living.

It’s going to be a s**t show, might not be in the housing market but the economy will take a big hit as we pull back on spending.

The retail figures were worse than expected in December.
 
So Alan Tudge had no issue releasing personal details of victims to the media during Robodebt...


Ps. Got to laugh the Minister in charge claims he was not responsible... that's great, hand back your Ministerial salary then!
 
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So you're wearing these masks as well and whilst at home? Or do you think your imagined air circulation system in your lounge room is somehow less risky than the Bunnings 30 foot ceilings?
No I don't wear masks, My Wife does, but not at Home and at this time my Home air circulation is better than a 30-foot burning ceiling,
 
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I might be wrong but I thought I read serviceability rates were in the 2s. But as rates increase the serviceability rate will also be higher, inhibiting the ability of some borrowers to be approved for refinancing. Also I’m sure the banks would have factored in higher cost of living.

It’s going to be a s**t show, might not be in the housing market but the economy will take a big hit as we pull back on spending.

The retail figures were worse than expected in December.
It got put to +3% plus the banks were ruthless in assessing expenditure specifically to avoid the s**t show. I’m not worried. There’ll be some who suffer but not enough to affect the market. The rate of saving was never higher than the last few years.
 
1970Crow… you asked.. you received..

now the best course of action would be to return the favour would it not..

what is it you do for our First Nations brothers and sisters?

please don’t tell us your just another Mutineer.. who only really gives a fxxk about the plight of our First Nations brothers and sisters at the moment because he sees it as an opportunity to bash the PM over.. a labor government PM that he’s going to bash at every opportunity because everything is about political wins against labor for him and at the moment he finds himself in the depths of despair over the current position the liberal National party finds itself in.. which is.. unelectable at nearly all levels!

so.. gone on.. give SOTY some details of your actions..
Looks like someone has bitten off more than they can chew as has gone mysteriously quiet.

Never make assumptions about poster's background you are challenging...
 

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If i had a dime for every time someone has said...we have trump now, i'd be rich.

The FBI are balls deep in this..looking more and more like a false flag event..and what about the latest footage of one Ray Epps
Not an FBI issue this is a NY courts issue and He may be in a bit of Trouble this time around,
The Georgia Issue is also Not FBI, it state-based and it not looking good for him

Both these cases will not be resolved anytime soon But will roll into 2024 and will be a major distraction in the primaries. for Trump.
 

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I was expecting him to be indicted for the Stormy Daniels case the day he lost office. I can't believe it's taken until now.
There is a bit leading into this nobody believe it was a Priority, but now it is.
As his lawyer at the time was found Guilty and additional person 1 was untouchable at the time Trump could be in trouble.
 

Crow till I die

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But that’s exactly what the serviceability calcs take into consideration. That you can afford your loan if rates increase by 3%. Which is what they’ve done. So for same circumstances, bank says you can afford your loan.
But thats the point, if the bank then says sorry you can't service they default
 
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I might be wrong but I thought I read serviceability rates were in the 2s. But as rates increase the serviceability rate will also be higher, inhibiting the ability of some borrowers to be approved for refinancing. Also I’m sure the banks would have factored in higher cost of living.

It’s going to be a s**t show, might not be in the housing market but the economy will take a big hit as we pull back on spending.

The retail figures were worse than expected in December.

The sad thing is that many of these corporate economists are so removed from reality that they only see numbers and that's all.

I heard one of them (might have been from Citibank) claim the government went too soft on interest rates and said that the RBA need to go back to 50 basis point rises and there needs to be 3 or 4 in quick succession ie another 2% rise in rates.

I don't get it, the problem was never demand driven. Raising interest rates was never going to be the answer and now that it's become clear that raising them hasn't worked their big idea is to lift rates even more?

Are they joking?

Lifting interest rates has been about as useful as pulling the handbrake on a car when you're falling off a cliff.
 
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Are we surprised....No!!

 

Mr_Moogle

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The sad thing is that many of these corporate economists are so removed from reality that they only see numbers and that's all.

I heard one of them (might have been from Citibank) claim the government went too soft on interest rates and said that the RBA need to go back to 50 basis point rises and there needs to be 3 or 4 in quick succession ie another 2% rise in rates.

I don't get it, the problem was never demand driven. Raising interest rates was never going to be the answer and now that it's become clear that raising them hasn't worked their big idea is to lift rates even more?

Are they joking?

Lifting interest rates has been about as useful as pulling the handbrake on a car when you're falling off a cliff.
I'll post this here because I enjoy this content and you might find it interesting. He thinks economists are useless because all the talented people are on the trading floor making money. The banks don't squander talent. Economists are the dregs of that industry. They can get it wrong, make bad predictions and there are no consequences if they suck at their jobs.

EDIT: Linked the correct video now.

 
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fortunatecrow

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The sad thing is that many of these corporate economists are so removed from reality that they only see numbers and that's all.

I heard one of them (might have been from Citibank) claim the government went too soft on interest rates and said that the RBA need to go back to 50 basis point rises and there needs to be 3 or 4 in quick succession ie another 2% rise in rates.

I don't get it, the problem was never demand driven. Raising interest rates was never going to be the answer and now that it's become clear that raising them hasn't worked their big idea is to lift rates even more?

Are they joking?

Lifting interest rates has been about as useful as pulling the handbrake on a car when you're falling off a cliff.
Spot on. It's the worst way to address inflation caused by supply side factors
 
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