No team that wins 11 in a row is pretending
Mega Thread Non-Freo AFL Discussion 2022
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No team that wins 11 in a row is pretending
17 wins, 4 losses and a tank in the final round.
Collingwood is
It's one of the luckiest runs in the history of footy, they've been smashed in some of the games but got away with it
- Jul 20, 2014
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Many people including myself were still calling Alex Rance a bust after he'd played over 50 games.
Some people still think Griffin Logue is a bust haha…
I actually can’t believe some of the stuff I’m reading here where people are kinda conflicted about wanting Carlton to win next week to help us reach top 4. Are you people serious? We’ve had how many top 4 finishes in the last 28 years?
If we finish 5th we can’t win the flag from WA outside the top 4.
If we finish 4th, we probably can’t either, but there’s a chance. A nothing to lose final v Geelong at the G as opposed to a nervy home elimination final probably v Richmond who are in bloody good form. All the pressure would be on Geelong in week 1 of the finals. It’s a MASSIVE prize compared to finishing 5th.
I dislike Carlton as much as anyone else. Don’t get me wrong on that. But * me dead, I’m not willing to give up a top 4 chance just so I can take some pleasure out of another club missing finals.
That’s batshit crazy level talk.
So let’s *in go the mighty old navy blues next weekend at the MCG.
*if we fail to beat GWS on Saturday avo, then I don’t care. I would like to see avoid whatever position means we would play Richmond. I don’t feel confident we could beat them, a hardened finals outfit, especially with no experienced key forwards.
If we finish 5th we can’t win the flag from WA outside the top 4.
If we finish 4th, we probably can’t either, but there’s a chance. A nothing to lose final v Geelong at the G as opposed to a nervy home elimination final probably v Richmond who are in bloody good form. All the pressure would be on Geelong in week 1 of the finals. It’s a MASSIVE prize compared to finishing 5th.
I dislike Carlton as much as anyone else. Don’t get me wrong on that. But * me dead, I’m not willing to give up a top 4 chance just so I can take some pleasure out of another club missing finals.
That’s batshit crazy level talk.
So let’s *in go the mighty old navy blues next weekend at the MCG.
*if we fail to beat GWS on Saturday avo, then I don’t care. I would like to see avoid whatever position means we would play Richmond. I don’t feel confident we could beat them, a hardened finals outfit, especially with no experienced key forwards.
Collingwood is an exception. The luckiest streak in the history of football. They were smashed for large parts of games by 7 of the bottom 8 sides (the only bottom 8 side they didn't play in their streak was WC, who they already lost to) and somehow kept fluking wins.
The ladder ordered by percentage is exactly how I would rank the sides. Collingwood are 10th. Pretenders they are. They won't win a final. Unless they play us and it is raining.
Poor bastards. I think parliament is sitting too. Should be a hoot!
We just setup shop in Melbourne and get the job done.
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I love this the Wet toast are the weakest AFL club in Australia based on the results of the last 12 months of AFL , Reserves (WAFL) and AFLW combined wins which is 5 all up.
I don't have time to do this but even the last 18 months may come up with the same result. I am enjoying this too much.
I don't have time to do this but even the last 18 months may come up with the same result. I am enjoying this too much.
Jeez we are gone completely off the radar amongst the AFL media in Melbourne.
There Will be a few hacks scratching their heads if we win and Carlton win next week and we are top 4.
“Didnt freo sneak in quietly to a qualifying final?” “Where the hell did they come from?”
Not necessarily a bad thing for us but it’s bloody irritating nonetheless not to be mentioned. We have won 14 games this year and earned the right to be respected a bit more than we are.
My goodness me I’d love it if we turned over one of these big Melbourne clubs in a knockout final..
There Will be a few hacks scratching their heads if we win and Carlton win next week and we are top 4.
“Didnt freo sneak in quietly to a qualifying final?” “Where the hell did they come from?”
Not necessarily a bad thing for us but it’s bloody irritating nonetheless not to be mentioned. We have won 14 games this year and earned the right to be respected a bit more than we are.
My goodness me I’d love it if we turned over one of these big Melbourne clubs in a knockout final..
I hear he has a headache from getting booed though poor fella.
Adelaide & West Coast won 16 games in 2016 and missed the Top 4.
Sydney, Dogs & Lions finished with 15 wins last year. Only Brisbane got in the 4 with %.
Such interesting permutations.
If we and Collingwood win and Melbourne/Brisbane lose they finish in 6th and pay Richmond.
Carlton lose they’re most likely cooked. They win and we win then they’ll be playing loser of Melbourne and Brisbane
If we and Collingwood win and Melbourne/Brisbane lose they finish in 6th and pay Richmond.
Carlton lose they’re most likely cooked. They win and we win then they’ll be playing loser of Melbourne and Brisbane
That’s just not true, it may not have been won by 4th but it’s been won by 3rd a number of times, which is exactly the same equation - away QF in the first week. Sometimes statistical anomalies exist.
There is just no argument that 5th (Home final, followed by 3 away finals) presents as good an opportunity as 4th (Double chance, home semi followed by 2 away finals OR 3 finals only with a home prelim in the middle).
Particularly for a non-Vic side. Fairytales like the Bulldogs in ‘16 winning outside the top 4 are only possible for Victorian sides. Finishing 7th they were supposed to play 4 away finals, but returned home for both the semi and GF (playing at home, after finishing 7th, with the 1st place side travelling)
A WA side would have to make history winning a flag from 5th or 6th.
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How many sides have won the flag after finishing 4th and losing the first final.
For a non Vic side would be difficult.
Taylor
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The majority of premiership sides have come from the top three, as in almost all of them, as in only the Dogs at 7th, haven't been from top three sides the last two decades.
So I should have said the odds that we win the flag from 4th is the same as 5th, 6th and 8th are the same - that's what I meant.
Sydney lost their first final in 05 but they matched up with a non Vic side in the GF in WC
It’s not the same odds though. If you take the next block of 20 years, 4th will have more premierships than 5th 6th or 8th guaranteed. Starting with 2022 hopefully.
I’m gonna get a bit crazy and try and calculate our top 4 chances, so
- Result in Melbourne v Brisbane: almost certain, 99.5%
- Win vs GWS: Favourites, we have better form and more to play for, they are missing Greene, but it is in Sydney and GWS are talented and erratic. 70% sounds about right to me
- Carlton win: 50% here. I think Carlton win but it’s very 50/50
AND/OR St Kilda win: It is in Melbourne not Sydney, but it’s hard to make a case for the Saints vs the Swans with better form and more to play for. 10% is fair.
So 0.995 x 0.7 x (0.5 + 0.1) = ~42% chance of making the top 4. I’m not crazy you’re crazy.
Taylor
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Hopefully, but it's not a guarantee that 4th position will win more flags than the bottom half of the eight
4th:
2002 - Collingwood came close, losing the grand final (won week one)
2003 - Sydney lost the prelim (to the premiers)(won week one)
2004 - Geelong lost the prelim
2005 - St Kilda lost the prelim (to the premiers)(won week one)
2006 - Sydney came close, losing the grand final (won week one)
2007 - Kangaroos lost the prelim
2008 - St Kilda lost the prelim (to the premiers)
2009 - Collingwood lost the prelim (to the premiers)
2010 - Bulldogs lost the prelim
2011 - West Coast lost prelim (to the premiers)
2012 - Collingwood lost prelim (to the premiers)
2013 - Sydney lost the prelim
2014 - Fremantle lost the semi
2015 - Sydney lost the semi
2016 - GWS lost the prelim (to the premiers) (won first week)
2017 - GWS lost the prelim (to the premiers)
2018 - Hawthorn lost the semi
2019 - Collingwood lost the prelim (won first week)
2020 - Geelong came close, losing the grand final
2021 - Brisbane lost the semi
Granted, it's obvious that it's hard to progress to a grand final and win the game but you would expect more of a result that zero in twenty.
The only thing for sure is that generally speaking 4th has to go through the best performed team of the season to go straight to the prelim
2021 - Melbourne/Port - won the flag
2020 - Port/Brisbane - neither won
2019 - Collingwood/Richmond - won the flag
2018 - Richmond/West Coast - won the flag
2017 - Adelaide/Richmond - won the flag
2016 - GWS/Geelong - neither won
--AFL introduces pre-finals bye week--
2015 - Fremantle/West Coast - neither won
2014 - Sydney/Hawthorn - won the flag
2013 - Hawthorn/Fremantle - won the flag
2012 - Hawthorn/Sydney - won the flag
2011 - Collingwood/Geelong - won the flag
2010 - Collingwood/St Kilda - won the flag
2009 - St Kilda/Geelong - won the flag
2008 - Geelong/Hawthorn - won the flag
2007 - Geelong/Port - won the flag
2006 - Sydney/Adelaide - neither won
2005 - St Kilda/West Coast - neither won
2004 - Port/Brisbane - won the flag
2003 - Sydney/Collingwood - neither won
2002 - Collingwood/Brisbane - won the flag
The last twenty years;
The flag has been won by a side who wins the qualifying final 14/20 times (70%)
A side who won the qualifying final makes the grand final 28/40 times (70%)
And to do that 4th has to beat the best side. That's why, to me, it's just as likely to get through and win as 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th. The bottom half of the eight only need to win a game against another bottom half of the eight side to get to week two and all sides in week two are one loss from season ending.
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Nah, it's in a much more civilised and hospitable place.
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