Mega Thread Non-Freo AFL Discussion 2022

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Iā€™m gonna get a bit crazy and try and calculate our top 4 chances, so

  • Result in Melbourne v Brisbane: almost certain, 99.5%
  • Win vs GWS: Favourites, we have better form and more to play for, they are missing Greene, but it is in Sydney and GWS are talented and erratic. 70% sounds about right to me
  • Carlton win: 50% here. I think Carlton win but itā€™s very 50/50

AND/OR St Kilda win: It is in Melbourne not Sydney, but itā€™s hard to make a case for the Saints vs the Swans with better form and more to play for. 10% is fair.

So 0.995 x 0.7 x (0.5 + 0.1) = ~42% chance of making the top 4. Iā€™m not crazy youā€™re crazy.
You're slightly pessimistic on the odds, particularly for Saints. It's ~25% according to the betting odds, which brings the chances up to ~52%. That makes the $2.25 for top 4 over the odds.
 
Jeez we are gone completely off the radar amongst the AFL media in Melbourne.
There Will be a few hacks scratching their heads if we win and Carlton win next week and we are top 4.
ā€œDidnt freo sneak in quietly to a qualifying final?ā€ ā€œWhere the hell did they come from?ā€

Not necessarily a bad thing for us but itā€™s bloody irritating nonetheless not to be mentioned. We have won 14 games this year and earned the right to be respected a bit more than we are.
My goodness me Iā€™d love it if we turned over one of these big Melbourne clubs in a knockout final..
**** em.
Respect will come with a "Fremantle Kiss"!
...right Jock?
 

Can we please spare a thought for North in all this - their supercoach snatched from them! Maybe not too late to get Zeibull?
i hope he goes there for the banter at essendon
 

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I totally support Essendon being s**t for as long as possible and do not believe Truck Rutten was/is the answer, but Essendon fielded a younger side than their opposition in every single game they played this year.

I don't think shitcanning the bloke in charge of that is super logical.

Essendon are, of course, stuck very firmly in the land of feels now. Logic left when Hirdy was getting anti-ageing drugs (metaphorically) jabbed straight into his *en eyeballs.
 
Sydney don't have to travel 5 hours by plane either to get to the ground.

Travel isn't really a big factor for them unlike the other states.

Travel is really only a factor for us and the other mob. Even the SA and QLD teams spend hardly any time in the air.
 
Bombers massively over achieved with a young list last year and were lucky to make the 8 with an 11-11 record, considering Carlton or the Bulldogs might go 12-10 and miss out.

Firing him would be at least a year's step back with their age profile.
 
Bombers massively over achieved with a young list last year and were lucky to make the 8 with an 11-11 record, considering Carlton or the Bulldogs might go 12-10 and miss out.

Firing him would be at least a year's step back with their age profile.
Unless they have a target in mind & that target is interested. Iā€™m not saying they would/could be any better, but sometimes the marketability of the coach is just as important as their coaching abilities.
 
A lot of generous people here. I suspect many wouldn't be feeling as charitable had they watched their own team dishing up what Essendon did for most of this year.
 
A lot of generous people here. I suspect many wouldn't be feeling as charitable had they watched their own team dishing up what Essendon did for most of this year.
The good news is Iā€™m sure the Port fans were happy with their win & stoked to have Kenny going around again.
 
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