Play Nice 2018 Ladder Predictions

[FlyHigh18]

Ok had a look at the draw and yes I have gone crazy biased against Adelaide

Adelaide 17-5
GWS 17-5
Sydney 16-6
Geelong 16-6
West Coast 15-7
Richmond 14-8
St Kilda 13-9
Collingwood 13-9

Essendon 12-10
Port Adelaide 11-11
Melbourne 11-11
Bulldogs 11-11
Hawthorn 8-14
Fremantle 7-15
Carlton 6-16
North Melbourne 5-17
Gold Coast 3-19
Brisbane 2-20

Each team could move up or down 2 wins or 2 losses , but I shall enter these tips on the Main Board Tipping Comp and see how I go.

I think Adelaide at worst should lose 7

Nice prediction dude! A quick scroll through and i think my own matches this one most closely.

• I do however think WCE is going to struggle a bit after losing some key mids so would probably swap their position with Port who are on the rise
• Melbourne and St Kilda appear to be at very similar stages so it will be interesting to see who takes a top 8 spot between them
• Coupled with a good draw I do think Carlton will start their rise next year

 

[aussierulesrules]

• Melbourne and St Kilda appear to be at very similar stages so it will be interesting to see who takes a top 8 spot between them

We have been at very similar stages and trajectory in recent years, but they've spent their first rounders for this year and next year on someone who is ready to go and immediately improve their team, while we'll be using our 2017 firsts at least in the draft (on those who are much less likely to be ready to make us better immediately) and we're also losing two who were best 22, in Riewoldt and Montagna (while not necessarily adding anyone to the list who will be best 22 in 2018), while they only lose Watts (and on top of Lever also add Balic, who could also contribute next year).

So they have a real opportunity to open up a bit of a gap.

They really need to be playing finals next year pretty much no excuses (except say a terrible injury run), while I believe we certainly could play finals next year, but am not expecting it by any means- especially having now seen our draw, which looks very difficult again (including a 15 game stretch where we play 7 games out of Melbourne!)- and hearing that our list could be the least experienced in the league for 2018.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Adelaide
Port Adelaide
Geelong
Melbourne
GWS
Richmond
Essendon
Sydney

West Coast
St Kilda
Bulldogs
Collingwood
Hawthorn
Fremantle
Brisbane
Gold Coast
North Melbourne
Carlton

1. Port Adelaide
2. Adelaide
3. GWS
4. Essendon
5. Melbourne
6. Richmond
7. St Kilda
8. Geelong
--------------
9. WCE
10. Gold Coast
11. Hawthorn
12. Sydney
13. Fremantle
14. WBD
15. Collingwood
16. Brisbane
17. North Melbourne
18. Carlton

Carlton spoon? I can seen them finishing as high as 12th

 

[HeavyPop]

Here's my reasoning:

- Richmond were excellent at the MCG last and are scheduled to play 14 games there. We only played 11 games there last year. I reckon Richmond's high pressure game style really holds up at the MCG, so provided that they bring that pressure I think we can get 1st. Besides, it isn't a huge shock for the reigning Premier to finish 1st with the minor premiership.

- I actually had Sydney at 8th, but figured that if Collingwood were close to making finals that they would successfully do whatever they can to make finals. I just feel like Sydney need a bit of a rejuvenation. Their early season form felt more like a danger sign rather than just a blip. Some of their core players are starting to hit their 30s and I feel like their youth can't carry the side while some of their seniors are hitting the other end of 30.

Then again, whenever I put Sydney out of the 8 in recent times they end up finishing with the minor premiership.

Richmond finishing top isn't impossible, but I think they'll drop a few games due to a late start to pre-season and their high pressure game style. I think Richmond will be happy with a top 4 finish this year because their game is built for finals where they'll be able to beat anyone if they show up.

Swans home games in 2018: Port, GWS, Crows, North, Fremantle, Carlton, West Coast, Geelong, Gold Coast, Collingwood, Hawthorn

I'd say they win 9 of those minimum. WC and Essendon made finals this year with 12 wins, but say they need 13 wins in 2018 to make the 8.

Away from home they should beat WC, Brisbane, North and at least 1-2 between St. Kilda, Essendon and Hawthorn.

That gives them 13 wins and finals. It's always difficult to see a good side who has a strong home ground advantage missing the 8.

 

[Dez!]

Carlton spoon? I can seen them finishing as high as 12th

They've turned over 13 players this off season, they aren't getting to 12th.

 

[Bazza97]

We have been at very similar stages and trajectory in recent years, but they've spent their first rounders for this year and next year on someone who is ready to go and immediately improve their team, while we'll be using our 2017 firsts at least in the draft (on those who are much less likely to be ready to make us better immediately) and we're also losing two who were best 22, in Riewoldt and Montagna (while not necessarily adding anyone to the list who will be best 22 in 2018), while they only lose Watts (and on top of Lever also add Balic, who could also contribute next year).

So they have a real opportunity to open up a bit of a gap.

They really need to be playing finals next year pretty much no excuses (except say a terrible injury run), while I believe we certainly could play finals next year, but am not expecting it by any means- especially having now seen our draw, which looks very difficult again (including a 15 game stretch where we play 7 games out of Melbourne!)- and hearing that our list could be the least experienced in the league for 2018.

I think both of our teams are at an interesting phase atm. The dynamic of our rivalry has changed in that we've finally been able to beat you guys so it's going to be interesting to see what happens in the coming years. It was disappointing that neither of our teams made the top 8 this year considering we were deemed to be the two most likely teams from outside the 8 to do so.

Confident that Melbourne will finally break the finals drought although there is no guarantees. We've got a decent draw for the first half of the year which I think we should take advantage of. The last 6-7 games in our fixture looks to be a pretty tough run home so it could be a pretty nervous last few rounds if we aren't entrenched in the top 8. Hopefully we've learnt from this season that every moment counts.

I reckon you could make a pretty decent argument that the Saints are one of the more likely teams to make finals from outside the top 8 next year as well. It's interesting that your list could be one of the least experienced in the comp for 2018. Increased responsibility will go to the likes of Newnes, Bruce, Roberton, Weller & Ross so it will be a good challenge for them to make up the leadership vacuum left by Riewoldt and Montagna. I think you can improve enough sufficiently to make finals although you do have a pretty difficult draw. Look forward to playing you guys twice again as well as our progression next season.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

They've turned over 13 players this off season, they aren't getting to 12th.

True but they wont get the spoon GC or North for me.

 

[Coaster2012]

Theres so many unknown with WC this year, I actually they they are a bit of a wild card. NN could come back flying and we could come from nowhere and surprise. One or two of our kids could go up a level. Redden might become the player we want him to be. Who knows with our new stadium. Our core is solid. So who knows. Our defence is solid and our forward are solid. If NN can slip in and our midfield can get their act together. I just think underrate WC are your peril.

 

[Bokonon_]

Theres so many unknown with WC this year, I actually they they are a bit of a wild card. NN could come back flying and we could come from nowhere and surprise. One or two of our kids could go up a level. Redden might become the player we want him to be. Who knows with our new stadium. Our core is solid. So who knows. Our defence is solid and our forward are solid. If NN can slip in and our midfield can get their act together. I just think underrate WC are your peril.

Well We've two games against you again next year to find out. I exoect they'll be tough hard fought games as per the H/A this year.
With our mids being extra cautious not to bomb it long to McGovern and Hurn for the rebound.

 

[adammania9]

My out there prediction of Collingwood and Buckley feeling the pressure early might come to fruition.

They could be zero and six after this run of games.

We never know what the Pies might dump each game
Hawthorn is 50/50
Giants is 40/60
Carlton is 60/40
Adelaide is 20/80 (confident of a loss)
Essendon is 45/55
Richmond is 20/80 (confident of a loss)

Best case scenario is we walk away with three wins in my eyes. We have some very winnable games after those which will define our season.
http://www.afl.com.au/fixture?teamId=CD_T40#tteam

 

[adammania9]

If West Coast stayed at Domain they'd remain in the finals mix but for now, they don't have a home ground advantage so I think they'll have a really poor start to the season and won't make up for it later. 11-14 finish on the ladder for me.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

I never said you would win the spoon. You will win somewhere between 11 and 13 games imo.

Geez that's kind. They'll be lucky to crack double figures I reckon...

 

[JT_the_Man]

Essendon' fixture reads about 15-7 to me.

 

[Madtiger2006]

People need to stop saying we won’t be able to keep up the intense pressure. We only applied that in the finals. We finished half a game from top spot with standard forward line pressure from our quicks

 

[BTs Nana]

Essendon' fixture reads about 15-7 to me.

I assume you are factoring a delusional round 1 victory

 

[SCRAY72]

Geez that's kind. They'll be lucky to crack double figures I reckon...

Always give them about 7 to 8 home wins every year.

 

[Bazza97]

Essendon' fixture reads about 15-7 to me.

Do you reckon that would be enough to get you in the top 4? We saw this year that 15 wins was sufficient to get the double chance whereas in the few years prior to that 16 wins at least was required. I personally think 15 wins can get you in the top 4 next season as I'm expecting a pretty even year again and the gap between the top and bottom teams getting narrower.

 

[Jukesy85]

Essendon' fixture reads about 15-7 to me.

I calculated 15-7 as well.

Adelaide (L), Freo (W), Bulldogs (W), Port (W), Pies (W), Dees (L), Hawks (W), Blues (W), Cats (L), GWS (L), Richmond (W), Brisbane (W), West Coast (W), North (W), Pies (W), Suns (W), Freo (W), Swans (L), Hawks (W), Saints (W), Richmond (L), Port (L)

 

[docko911]

Essendon' fixture reads about 15-7 to me.

I’ll give it a try...

Adelaide - 0.3
Fremantle - 0.7
Western Bulldogs - 0.5
Port Adelaide - 0.6
Collingwood - 0.6
Melbourne - 0.5
Hawthorn - 0.6
Carlton - 0.8
Geelong - 0.3
GWS - 0.25
Richmond - 0.35
Brisbane - 0.9
West Coast - 0.5
North - 0.9
Collingwood - 0.7
Gold Coast - 0.9
Fremantle - 0.8
Sydney - 0.35
Hawthorn - 0.6
St Kilda - 0.5
Richmond - 0.35
Port Adelaide - 0.4

12.4 wins

I reckon rounds 2-8 will determine if you go close to top 4. Probably need to start 6-2 or pull off some big wins in the last 14 rounds.

 

[Bazza97]

If West Coast stayed at Domain they'd remain in the finals mix but for now, they don't have a home ground advantage so I think they'll have a really poor start to the season and won't make up for it later. 11-14 finish on the ladder for me.

Will be quite intriguing seeing how the Eagles fare at the new Perth Stadium. They've got a pretty difficult fixture with the teams they play there I reckon. They won 8 games playing as the home team this season, think it will be hard for them to improve or at least match that record next season.

 

[Forward Press]

Will be quite intriguing seeing how the Eagles fare at the new Perth Stadium. They've got a pretty difficult fixture with the teams they play there I reckon. They won 8 games playing as the home team this season, think it will be hard for them to improve or at least match that record next season.

Three of those games were lost by narrow margins after leading in the last quarter, it could be a lot worse.

We'll be thereabouts, I'm confident of that.

 

[Bazza97]

Three of those games were lost by narrow margins after leading in the last quarter, it could be a lot worse.

We'll be thereabouts, I'm confident of that.

They were pretty close losses yeah. If you can get close to winning 8 or so games as the home team next season I think you'd probably make the top 8. You won 4 games as the away team this season and looking at your away fixture next year, I can see you guys improving your away record on this year. I still have you guys in the mix for finals in 2018 although I think you will probably drop out. I don't believe you will drop off close to the bottom 4 or even in it, I think that's wishful thinking personally.

 

[Forward Press]

They were pretty close losses yeah. If you can get close to winning 8 or so games as the home team next season I think you'd probably make the top 8. You won 4 games as the away team this season and looking at your away fixture next year, I can see you guys improving your away record on this year. I still have you guys in the mix for finals in 2018 although I think you will probably drop out. I don't believe you will drop off close to the bottom 4 or even in it, I think that's wishful thinking personally.

Yeah I think we're going to be in that middle pack competing for spots in the lower rungs of the eight. Wouldn't surprise if we finished about 12th as we lose the home ground advantage, for now.

I believe that unless we get absolutely pumped a few times and finish bottom 4 that Simmo is safe until 2019 and will be given a chance to rebuild on the run.

I don't take exception to those that rate us in the bottom 4, though, the reasons are justifiable enough.

 

[BLERN]

Ess
Port
Geel
Syd
Mel
Rich
Gws
Adel

Freo
WB
WC
St.K
Coll
Bris
Haw
Carl
North
GCS

 

[HeavyPop]

People need to stop saying we won’t be able to keep up the intense pressure. We only applied that in the finals. We finished half a game from top spot with standard forward line pressure from our quicks

Richmond are the hunted now, they've got to go up a gear as sides will use them as a measuring stick.