Play Nice 2018 Ladder Predictions

[Ricky Vaughn]

What did the tiger smalls average?
There is your benchmark for pressure forwards.

Butler - 1.39
Rioli - 1.32
Townsend - 2
Castagna - 1.28
Riewoldt - 1.3

 

[Heisenberg_]

Butler - 1.39
Rioli - 1.32
Townsend - 2
Castagna - 1.28
Riewoldt - 1.3

Add in pressure acts as well.

 

[Established1870]

Butler - 1.39
Rioli - 1.32
Townsend - 2
Castagna - 1.28
Riewoldt - 1.3

So what you're saying is, if we get 2016 Lindsay Thomas, then he's a better pressure forward than any Richmond player.

I'm liking this pick up more and more each day.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Add in pressure acts as well.

Can't find those numbers

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

So what you're saying is, if we get 2016 Lindsay Thomas, then he's a better pressure forward than any Richmond player.

I'm liking this pick up more and more each day.

Correct, but he's still worse than Tom Hawkins.

 

[Shermanator]

So what you're saying is, if we get 2016 Lindsay Thomas, then he's a better pressure forward than any Richmond player.

I'm liking this pick up more and more each day.

Lindsay will thrive in your fwd line if hes fit and firing. Gray, Wingard and LT creating havoc of the packs is a scary prospect.

 

[masai]

NicNat in should counteract Mitchell out.

Please do not expect 100% out of NicNat, all this coming season.

From watching injured players returning to the game for many moons, you need to give them a good amount of leeway to return to their best. Maybe add another 50% to their off-field time. eg. 12 month injury, 18 months to get their mojo back.

Just feel that a lot of people think NicNat will be back going at full pelt from Round 1, can't see it myself.

A measure of caution is handy.

 

[Bazzar]

Butler - 1.39
Rioli - 1.32
Townsend - 2
Castagna - 1.28
Riewoldt - 1.3

Tackles alone are meaningless, pressure ratings are what we need to see. I remember reading Jack Graham after his third game averaged 68, that was outstanding, the Tiges next best was Lambert on 48.

physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points
closing pressure acts are worth 2.25 points
chasing pressure acts are worth 1.50 points
corralling pressure acts which are worth 1.20 points.

 

[snakebite01]

Because both Port and Essendon have improved their lists while you’ve lost Lever, Smith and Cameron and only gained Gibbs and Gibson? That’s not an improvement.

Oh wait, my mistake - in South Australia things never change, so why would the opposition?

You won 15 games and drew once. There are no errors. You weren’t the world beaters you think you are. When you got put under pressure you collapsed like you always do.

You think Port and Essendon have improved their list by 9 goals each compared to the Crows? As I said, laughable conclusion to make.

Furthermore, we don’t even play Essendon twice next year, so I’m not sure how list changes at the end of 2017 can effect match ups that aren’t even happening in 2018. Like I said, bizarre.

You started us with only 15 wind and docked us a whole win for a game we only drew. Erroneous.

 

[SHill Shall]

That being said 8th through 12th seems fine, any higher or lower and you're probably an Eagles supporter/detractor.

Should we believe that because you are an objective Eagles supporter or should we discount it because you are an everyday, garden variety Eagles supporter?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

2017 Thomas isn’t.

2016 Thomas averaged 1.5 tackles inside 50 per game, which was better than Cameron’s 1.4 tackles per game this year.

If he can find that sort of form, he is most certainly a pressure forward.

What chance do you give of that happening?

 

[PintSzedSlasher]

Please do not expect 100% out of NicNat, all this coming season.

From watching injured players returning to the game for many moons, you need to give them a good amount of leeway to return to their best. Maybe add another 50% to their off-field time. eg. 12 month injury, 18 months to get their mojo back.

Just feel that a lot of people think NicNat will be back going at full pelt from Round 1, can't see it myself.

A measure of caution is handy.

Round 1 next year it will have been 19 months since NN did his acl just fyi. Point still valid though.

 

[Janus]

What chance do you give of that happening?

Well he’s on the rookie list for a reason isn’t he?

 

[kranky al]

Please do not expect 100% out of NicNat, all this coming season.

From watching injured players returning to the game for many moons, you need to give them a good amount of leeway to return to their best. Maybe add another 50% to their off-field time. eg. 12 month injury, 18 months to get their mojo back.

Just feel that a lot of people think NicNat will be back going at full pelt from Round 1, can't see it myself.

A measure of caution is handy.

Esp tall guys - emac was probably the next best kpb after rance before he went down and we havnt seen anything like his best since.

It will be around 18 months since he injured it rd 1 2018 - im hoping for him to be back at his best by finals 2019

 

[PowerForGood]

Tackles alone are meaningless, pressure ratings are what we need to see. I remember reading Jack Graham after his third game averaged 68, that was outstanding, the Tiges next best was Lambert on 48.

physical pressure acts are worth 3.75 points
closing pressure acts are worth 2.25 points
chasing pressure acts are worth 1.50 points
corralling pressure acts which are worth 1.20 points.

Is that the same as Dougal Howard setting a best ever 22 one percenters in the final against WC? Better than anything Rance has ever produced?

Exactly - stats are stats and all of them need context.

 

[Carringbush2010]

NicNat in should counteract Mitchell out.

How does that counteract? Nic Nat will improve your midfield position so long as the likes of Gaf and Schuey are able to emulate Mitchell's ( and Priddis's)"extraction". FWIW I think those 2 will to some extent bridge the gap left by Mitchell and Priddis add to that Nic Nats around the ground dominance (Gawn like) Simpson will "tweak" to suit. Those who have WC out of the 8 do so at your peril

 

[Angus Young]

GWS
Sydney
Port
Adelaide
Geelong

dunno after that

 

[snakebite01]

Impey was a loss, but the difference is that we still have pressure forwards on our list in Neade, Johnson and Lindsay Thomas. And again, our system isn’t reliant on one player doing the bulk of the defensive work the way Adelaide is, who are more setup to score goals first as opposed to defending first. The result is about the same, but the mentality is a lot different - when Adelaide don’t score, their forwards are useless, whereas a defence first team (like Richmond and Port) can affect the play even if they aren’t hitting the scoreboard

In 2017 Cameron ranked 6th at Adelaide for tackles per game and 24th for one percenters. To suggest he does “the bulk of the defensive work” is again just plain wrong.

Adelaide are not set up to defend first? We score the majority of our goals from turnovers and are the best in the competition at it. Just stop trying to comment as an authority on things you clearly have no idea about.

 

[Elite Crow]

For Adelaide it’s easy to see them missing the eight. Imagine their performance of 2017 except:

Adelaide lose both Showdowns instead of winning both - takes them to 13 wins

Adelaide drop one of their games against Essendon instead of winning both - 12 wins.

If they lose to Collingwood like they should have this year - 11 wins.

Do I think it will happen? Nope. But without Lever, Smith and Cameron it’s quite possible, even with Gibbs.

I see you’ve brought your madness to the main board.

 

[Lsta062]

So what you're saying is, if we get 2016 Lindsay Thomas, then he's a better pressure forward than any Richmond player.

I'm liking this pick up more and more each day.

Not necessariy, because pressure acts are also what needs to be looked at rather than tackles alone. That's where our small forwards excel.

 

[Elite Crow]

Sydney
Adelaide
Melbourne
Essendon
Richmond
Geelong beat
GWS
Port

WB
Hawks
Saints
Collingwood
Freo
West Coast
Brisbane
Carlton
North
Gold Coast

Sydney were the best team after rd 6 and just fell flat at the end.
Adelaide will cover Lever and Cameron, it’s the loss of Smith which is the concern.
Melbourne I see as the big improvers if they can get their head right

The next 5 teams in my top 8 could switch around. Essendon will improve, quality ins. Richmond’s game plan will be worked out which will see them drop a bit. Geelong will miss their defenders and Ablett won’t play all year. GWS lost a bit of talent, that will catch up with them. Ports best 22 has improved but if they cop some injuries Toumpas, McKenzie and Trengove could all get games, enough said.

 

[Janus]

In 2017 Cameron ranked 6th at Adelaide for tackles per game and 24th for one percenters. To suggest he does “the bulk of the defensive work” is again just plain wrong.

Adelaide are not set up to defend first? We score the majority of our goals from turnovers and are the best in the competition at it. Just stop trying to comment as an authority on things you clearly have no idea about.

Why the * would you mention one percenters for a forward when all they record is things like shepherds and spoils? That only applies to actual defenders.

Cameron was third for tackles inside 50 (which in the absence of pressure acts inside 50 is all we have) behind Betts and Sloane, who is a mid. The only other forward to average more than a tackle per game in that area was Walker, and he was ranked 6th.

To put that in perspective - eight of Port’s top nine for tackles inside 50 were all forwards - Neade, Johnson, Young, Dixon, Impey, R. Gray, Boak, S. Gray - and all of them averaged 0.94 tackles per game or more.

So I’ll say it again...Adelaide relies on certain players to do the bulk of the defensive work in the forward line.

And no, Adelaide are not setup to defend first in their forward line, which is what I’m talking about. If you were, your forwards would average more tackles inside 50.

P.S Everyone scores the majority of their goals from turnover. The only other options are from kick ins or stoppages.

 

[Elite Crow]

Why the **** would you mention one percenters for a forward when all they record is things like shepherds and spoils? That only applies to actual defenders.

Cameron was third for tackles inside 50 (which in the absence of pressure acts inside 50 is all we have) behind Betts and Sloane, who is a mid. The only other forward to average more than a tackle per game in that area was Walker, and he was ranked 6th.

To put that in perspective - eight of Port’s top nine for tackles inside 50 were all forwards - Neade, Johnson, Young, Dixon, Impey, R. Gray, Boak, S. Gray - and all of them averaged 0.94 tackles per game or more.

So I’ll say it again...Adelaide relies on certain players to do the bulk of the defensive work in the forward line.

And no, Adelaide are not setup to defend first in their forward line, which is what I’m talking about. If you were, your forwards would average more tackles inside 50.

P.S Everyone scores the majority of their goals from turnover. The only other options are from kick ins or stoppages.

Why did you use the benchmark of 1 for the Crows and then 0.94 for Port?

How did all that forward line pressure convert to goals scored for you? How did we compare?

Stop pretending you know what you are talking about.

 

[Lsta062]

Richmond’s game plan will be worked out which will see them drop a bit.

You know, I have seen many people say that "Richmond's gameplan will be worked out" on here (you aren't the only one). I wouldn't mind if someone stated their reasons on how they think Richmond's gameplan could potentially be worked out. I ask because I personally don't think it'll happen in one off-season, largely because of what Richmond's tactics are, how well it works at the MCG (their home ground) and the type of players they have in their best 22.

Richmond doesn't rely on a huge amount of disposals in the first place to be effective. Their main tactics include kicking long and direct and then putting pressure on the opposition's midfield + defence by tackling among other pressure acts. This puts the opposition in a position where they need to dispose of the ball quickly from their backline/midfield, leaving them highly susceptible to mistakes. Then, Richmond bring the ball to the ground and have many crumbing small forwards that are excellent at ground level. I see this tactic as something that is tough to counteract - even in 2018 given how other teams traded/drafted.

An issue for Bulldogs in their title defence was the removal of the 3rd man up as this was a major tactic of theirs to overcome their ruck deficiencies. They also required winning a lot of disposal numbers in order to be effective. Their 2016 backline featured players who were in the end of their careers too.

Now, I am not saying that Richmond can't finish below the top 4 as motivation to back up again + injuries to important players + dip in form from some players + other factors such as an unsuccessful change to the gameplan can place us lower. I am just talking about the statement "Richmond's gameplan will get worked out". I would like to see some reasoning that can potentially make me understand that statement.

 

[Elite Crow]

You know, I have seen many people say that "Richmond's gameplan will be worked out" on here (you aren't the only one). I wouldn't mind if someone stated their reasons on how they think Richmond's gameplan could potentially be worked out. I ask because I personally don't think it'll happen in one off-season, largely because of what Richmond's tactics are, how well it works at the MCG (their home ground) and the type of players they have in their best 22.

Richmond doesn't rely on a huge amount of disposals in the first place to be effective. Their main tactics include kicking long and direct and then putting pressure on the opposition's midfield + defence by tackling among other pressure acts. This puts the opposition in a position where they need to dispose of the ball quickly from their backline/midfield, leaving them highly susceptible to mistakes. Then, Richmond bring the ball to the ground and have many crumbing small forwards that are excellent at ground level. I see this tactic as something that is tough to counteract - even in 2018 given how other teams traded/drafted.

An issue for Bulldogs in their title defence was the removal of the 3rd man up as this was a major tactic of theirs to overcome their ruck deficiencies. They also required winning a lot of disposal numbers in order to be effective. Their 2016 backline featured players who were in the end of their careers too.

Now, I am not saying that Richmond can't finish below the top 4 as motivation to back up again + injuries to important players + dip in form from some players + other factors such as an unsuccessful change to the gameplan can place us lower. I am just talking about the statement "Richmond's gameplan will get worked out". I would like to see some reasoning that can potentially make me understand that statement.

My reasoning is in the main, coaches are smart and they always come up with ways to counter game plans. It happens every time a new one comes along, the Hawks being the exception but they were laden with stars.