List Mgmt. 2019 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals Thread - Part II

[Dubai Quacker]

Facts are our list has regressed over the past 2 weeks....jones is a better player than taylor

Premature to say it’s regressed.

3 prudent draft picks and we’ve improved markedly.

With 5 + a couple of 2nd rounders, the potential is there to nail it.

And I reckon we will.

 

[bungee]

... if we don't get Joe next year, we're pretty f’ed after Buddy retires in terms of KPFs.

We won the GF in 2012 with only Reid, LRT, and Goodes as our tall forwards. We had 9 goal kickers yet none of our 5 multiple goal kickers were tall forwards.

Franklin only played 10 games this year yet we had one of the most efficient forward setups in the comp, converting our inside 50s better than the opposition in nearly 80% of games.

We currently have Sinkers, Buddy, Reid, and Blakey as tall forward options plus guys like McCartin, Menzel and Dawson at least 190cm. We also have a few medium to tall players in development such as Knoll, McClean, Amartey and Pink. I'd expect Kennedy to finish his days as a 190cm forward.

We don't have a problem with our forward line. Supply is our problem. We are being constantly bettered in the midfield. We need to sort out our ruck and our midfield.

I agree we spent too much time on Joe but when a good key position player asks to come to your club you have an obligation to look seriously at a trade. We didn't piss Essendon around. We offered what we thought he was worth to us, not what he was worth to Essendon who value him much more than we do.

 

[swansfan51]

We start next year with only 3 players over 30 on the list

1. Buddy
2. JPK
3. Sinclair

That places us in the lower half of the league in terms of number of players >30. Some of the other clubs with low numbers of players over 30 are West Coast (4), Western Bulldogs (4), Brisbane (4), Fremantle (1), Gold Coast (3), Melbourne (3), Essendon (4), St Kilda (3), Adelaide (3), North Melbourne (3).

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

Not disappointed in our week.

Essentially Taylor for Jones. Jones is good, I liked him, but not so good that Taylor can’t be better.

We kept a gun non-injured goal sneak and didn’t waste everything on an injury struck kpp.

We kept pick 5.

We can potentially get Joe next year and not give up a single player/pick.

What is there to complain about?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[anotherletdown]

yep the trade period was quiet.. but we did well on a lot of fronts.
Shoved it up Vic media
Shoved it up Vic clubs
Stayed strong throughout
Held our poise and respect
Lost Jones (he wanted to go) for a fair deal p32 and about 250 - 300 pts next year
Got Taylor - could be good
Improved draft position - Looking forward to watching who we pick

All in all.. pretty good

I think we’ll be an active trader of picks on draft night too. Reckon there’s still a bit more to shake out... possibly another round of delistings as well

 

[anotherletdown]

GWS will trade for Melbourne's pick 3, who will they want?

Young to replace Shaw

 

[anotherletdown]

God forbid anyone who wants to leave the druggies. If you had of treated your players as you should have (ie. Not injecting them with "unknown chemicals" and not forcing them to play through OP against their will) then you wouldn't have found yourselves in this situation. Alas you have and hence here we are.

What we offered was more than reasonable. Lets talk in 12 months.

Besides all hell breaking loose... what would happen if they match the RFA deal to force a trade with us and we then offered a future 4th? The look on Dodoros face would probably be worth the angst

 

[caesar88]

It's a fact. It's one thing to always support the club but at least try to be realistic lol

Our list has nothing on the likes on Brisbane who are just as young.

8 of Brisbane’s top 10 in the B&F were over 24. Didn’t even include Hodge who was clearly one of their leaders on and off the field. They are not this young team full of rising stars that everyone thinks they are.

When you consider that 5 of those eight came from trades they do prove stealthy trading can go a long way.

 

[Slingshot Footy]

Interested to see what happens on draft night now that the trade picks have settled. The fact that Sydney never even put pick 5 on the table for Daniher gives me an indication that they have a very specific player in mind that wouldn't last much longer in the draft. Obviously there are no key forwards that early in the draft that are worthy of pick 5 so the focus I believe is most likely on elite midfield talent. For pick 5 the Swans can really only be interested in two midfielders in my mind, and they are Flanders and Serong. As much as I like Serong, considering how small our midfield is apart from our ageing skipper I think the Swans should pick Flanders. Serong looks class but our biggest problem is supply through the midfield and Flanders has proven himself against the best in big games that have mattered. The problem is, who else might be keen on him in the era of live pick swaps? Currently, the only club above us in the draft that might take Flanders is Adelaide (as picks stand) because Melbourne are really looking for speed and outside run through a Hayden Young or Lachie Ash type player. Are the Demons and the Crows looking to 'split' their picks? Probably the former more so than the latter because the Dees only possess picks 3,8 and 97. However, Adelaide might be interested in getting all the South Australian talent available towards the back end of the first round so who knows? Considering next year our first two picks will probably be used on Campbell and Gulden, who are both skilful but undersized prospects, we've gotta go all in for our pursuit of Flanders and pick swap with the Dees or Crows to make sure it happens. Then, bid for Green just to f**k with GWS

 

[caesar88]

The Zac Jones trade with the future picks included works out as pick 22. Actually a fair trade

Am I correct to assume those extras will go towards Gulden & Campbell next year? (I’m guessing we’ll need as many points as we can get)

 

[caesar88]

Depends what we offered, but if we didn't offer much more than 9+25 I'll be pi**ed. Also we could have gone elsewhere to improve the list, but we put all our eggs in one basket and didn't pull it off. We have clear holes which we all agree on and didn't fix anything. Dreadful.

Where are the clear holes in the list? I thought our forward line is so dire and Daniher would’ve fixed that, so why would it be so bad that we invested so much time into getting him? Who else was there? Patton who wanted to go to Vic? Bruce who was already tied up in trades? Jenkins who is over 30?

What other baskets were there to put our eggs into? Unless you’re referring to maybe looking at midfielders, but surely not with our bounty of midfield riches already on the list...

 

[RobbieK]

Trade Period ranked from worst to best: Who's in, out, draft hand

Our AFL.com.au trade experts give their verdicts on where your club ranked after this year's Telstra AFL Trade Period

m.afl.com.au

So, the winner of this year's trade period is St Kilda. They certainly traded the most. The article suggests finals beckons... I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that we are going to finish ahead of them next season.

 

[Jeffers]

These journos need to realise this isn't the NBA, you can't trade players without their permission.

Honestly, these journos think that we could just do this to trade a player

 

[mikey_san]

Trade Period ranked from worst to best: Who's in, out, draft hand

Our AFL.com.au trade experts give their verdicts on where your club ranked after this year's Telstra AFL Trade Period

m.afl.com.au

So, the winner of this year's trade period is St Kilda. They certainly traded the most. The article suggests finals beckons... I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that we are going to finish ahead of them next season.

While that would be fun, I don't see it happening....though if Buddy has a year and Naismith delivers anything is possible I guess.
Next year will be a success if Hayward, Florent, Rowbottom, Blakey, McCartin and McInerney + a couple of our draftees develop as we hope.
I'm looking forward to seeing it happen.

 

[SeanM]

Flogging at a dead horse, but if we don't get Joe next year, we're pretty f’ed after Buddy retires in terms of KPFs.

Franklin might not retire for three years.

It is such a long way out to know what our list will look like or what other KPFs will be available or what condition Danihers body is in. I always thought the timing was strange unless the club thought Franklin was already rapidly declining.

To me the Daniher deal seemed more opportunistic rather than a Franklin succession policy. He seemed like he became potentially available and the club were willing to take a calculated gamble on his fitness. But thankfully were not going to overpay with players and draft picks.

 

[Jack Lord]

Wonder how many games JD will manage next year. If it’s just a handful Dodo’ll look like a dud.

 

[RobbieK]

While that would be fun, I don't see it happening....though if Buddy has a year and Naismith delivers anything is possible I guess.
Next year will be a success if Hayward, Florent, Rowbottom, Blakey, McCartin and McInerney + a couple of our draftees develop as we hope.
I'm looking forward to seeing it happen.

People thought Port in 2018 and North in 2019 would improve off the back of big trade periods. It didn't happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see St Kilda follow the trend.

We finished this year one win behind them but with a significantly better percentage. As you say, we would hope for more than 10 games from Franklin, Naismith in the ruck fixing up the midfield a bit, and then natural progression from all of the guys in their early 20s that are already established in the best 22. Taylor is a straight swap for Jones, we didn't get anything really from the four senior guys who retired, and then we get three new first and second round draft picks too.

How many of the players that they have brought in are A Grade talents? You have to remember they lost Steven and Bruce too. When it comes to the draft The Saints don't get a pick until 51.

I don't think it is that far fetched to think we will be ahead of them at the end of next season. We shall see... remind me about this post in 12 months time

 

[RobbieK]

Wonder how many games JD will manage next year. If it’s just a handful Dodo’ll look like a dud.

For someone who wanted to get away from the attention he was under in Melbourne, he is certainly only going to be facing more scrutiny this year after the trade fell through. Totally possible for either us or the Bombers to have egg on our faces after it becomes clear that we should have given up a little more for a great talent or that we dodged a bullet on a player whose injuries are too serious. Or it could be somewhere in the middle. No doubt we will hear all about it ad nauseum.

 

[Punts]

List couldn’t go anymore backwards the 2 years imo

Unbalanced with potential superstars apparently and aging stars that are just about cooked

 

[RobbieK]

List couldn’t go anymore backwards the 2 years imo

Unbalanced with potential superstars apparently and aging stars that are just about cooked

It is to be expected when you focus on the draft for a few years in succession to drop off the pace a bit, but I see no reason to think that we will be worse in 2020 than we were in 2019.

 

[SeanM]

I find it hard to forecast how we or other teams will do next season. In 2018 we do not play very well yet somehow were a win away from top four. Then this season we were bottom four.

This year even some teams that did well and made the finals also went through long periods of poor form.

I think it will be fairly even. And it will be a fine line between challenging for top 8 and being near the bottom.

 

[Jack Lord]

As a matter of interest when was the last time a club traded two first rounders for a player?

 

[BloodySwan]

Waiting for all clubs delistings to start now. Still a number of good players out of contract. Some I'd look at if they were delisted (but I expect but all of these to be delisted)
Ben Keays
Nick Robertson
Matthew Kennedy
Caleb Marchbank
Sam Murray
Michael Hartley
Harley Bennell
Jack Newnes

 

[RobbieK]

As a matter of interest when was the last time a club traded two first rounders for a player?

Essendon traded their 2018 and 2019 first round draft picks for Dylan Shiel and GWS's second round pick.

The year before Melbourne traded Pick 10, their future first round pick and future fourth round pick for Jake Lever, Pick 35 and a future third round pick from Adelaide.

Adelaide that year traded Picks 10, 16, 73 and their future 2nd round pick to Carlton for Bryce Gibbs, Pick 77, a future second round pick and a future third round pick.

In 2015 Collingwood traded Pick 7, a future first round pick and pick 65 to GWS for Adam Treloar and Pick 28.

You then have to go back to the Judd trade in 2007 to get a big trade. That was Judd and pick 46 for Kennedy, pick 3 and pick 20.

In 2004 Brad Ottens went to Geelong from Richmond for picks 12 and 16. So I guess that is the last time you have a direct trade of a player for two first round picks.

I'll stop at that point. In almost all cases there were other picks in play, but in general it is really pretty rare for two first round picks to be involved in a trade. It is more common in the last few years because of the ability to trade future picks. I guess the interesting question would be how many of these trades proved to be worthwhile to the team giving up two first round picks?

 

[SeanM]

List couldn’t go anymore backwards the 2 years imo

Unbalanced with potential superstars apparently and aging stars that are just about cooked

People have been expecting our decline for the last five years. We had an ageing defence, star midfielders getting older, needing to uncover more forwards and our game style becoming obsolete etc.

I think we have done ok. We have young talent emerging in most positions.