Autopsy AFL 2023 Round 23 - Crows v Swans Sat Aug 19th 7:40pm EST (AO)

[Wosh]

12th v 7th

AFL 2023 PREMIERSHIP SEASON ROUND 23
ADELAIDE V SYDNEY
SATURDAY AUGUST 19TH 7:40PM EST (ADELAIDE OVAL)

Live scores on BigFooty during the match.

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Teams
CROWS
B: B.Smith, J.Borlase, M.Keane
HB: M.Michalanney, J.Worrell, W.Milera
C: J.Soligo, J.Dawson - C, M.Hinge
HF: B.Keays, D.Fogarty, S.McAdam
F: L.Murphy, T.Walker, I.Rankine
FOLL: R.O’Brien, R.Laird, M.Crouch

I/C: R.Thilthorpe, H.Schoenberg, R.Sloane, J.Rachele
EMG: L.Nankervis, B.Cook, L.Gollant, L.Pedlar
In: I.Rankine
Out: L.Pedlar (Omitted), L.Nankervis (Omitted)

SWANS
B: T.McCartin, D.Rampe - C, R.Fox
HB: N.Blakey, H.Cunningham, J.Lloyd
C: B.Campbell, J.Rowbottom, E.Gulden
HF: S.Wicks, H.McLean, T.Papley
F: W.Hayward, L.McDonald, I.Heeney
FOLL: T.Hickey, C.Mills, L.Parker

I/C: O.Florent, J.Buller, D.Stephens, Ch.Warner
EMG: R.Clarke, A.Francis, L.Melican, M.Roberts

In: D.Rampe, B.Campbell, J.Buller
Out: A.Francis (Omitted), M.Roberts (Omitted), J.Amartey (Injured), R.Clarke (Sub)



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[JackFlash]

There are several teams in the 8 at the moment and i am buggered if i know why? The Swans are one of them, Crows by 42 points

 

[Crow till I die]

At home, Rankine likely to return, I see a 5 goal crows win and that may keep the very faint finals hopes alive.

 

[Hobbes]

At home, Rankine likely to return, I see a 5 goal crows win and that may keep the very faint finals hopes alive.

I don't even think that the hopes are that faint. I think Adelaide are about 65% to make the finals if they win this. The last round is probably not just a bankable win but a percentage-booster.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I don't even think that the hopes are that faint. I think Adelaide are about 65% to make the finals if they win this. The last round is probably not just a bankable win but a percentage-booster.

The Crows wouldn't be more than a 10% chance to make the finals if you calculate all the games which need to go our way.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Bloods like playing AO and will win in a canter.

 

[MF]

I don't even think that the hopes are that faint. I think Adelaide are about 65% to make the finals if they win this. The last round is probably not just a bankable win but a percentage-booster.

I would have though even with 2 wins you'd still be a chance to miss no?

 

[Hobbes]

The Crows wouldn't be more than a 10% chance to make the finals if you calculate all the games which need to go our way.

No, not nearly as bad as you think.

St Kilda 12
Sydney 11.5
Bulldogs 11
Essendon 11
GWS 11
Geelong 10.5
Adelaide 10

Carlton aren't locked, but they're locked enough to be irrelevant to Adelaide

Relevant matches this weekend:

GWS v Essendon
Adelaide v Sydney
St Kilda v Geelong

Let's call Bulldogs v West Coast a walkover for the Bulldogs. And we might as well assume that Adelaide beat Sydney, or we're dead. That leaves:

GWS and St Kilda win
St Kilda 13 safe - Brisbane
Bulldogs 12 - Geelong
GWS 12 - Carlton
Sydney 11.5 - Melbourne
Adelaide 11
Essendon 11 - Collingwood
Geelong 10.5

Adelaide have a walkover against the West Coast to finish, and have percentage that won't be caught. We make the finals if 2/3 out of Geelong, Carlton and Melbourne win


GWS and Geelong win

Bulldogs 12 - Geelong
St Kilda 12 - Brisbane
GWS 12 - Carlton
Geelong 11.5 - Bulldogs
Sydney 11.5 - Melbourne
Adelaide 11
Essendon 11

We're behind the winner of Bulldogs and Geelong. We need two out of Brisbane, Carlton and Melbourne to win.

Essendon and St Kilda win

St Kilda 13
Bulldogs 12 - Geelong
Essendon 12 - Collingwood
Sydney 11.5 - Melbourne
Adelaide 11
GWS 11
Geelong 10.5

St Kilda are safe. We need two out of Geelong, Collingwood and Melbourne to win. All three are favourites.

Essendon and Geelong win

Bulldogs 12 - Geelong
St Kilda 12 - Brisbane
Essendon 12 -Collingwood
Geelong 11.5 - Bulldogs
Sydney 11.5 - Melbourne
Adelaide 11
GWS 11
Geelong 10.5
Adelaide 10

The winner of Bulldogs-Geelong will be ahead of us. We need two out of Brisbane, Collingwood and Melbourne to win.

Adelaide's percentage and final round against West Coast mean that we're better-placed than we look. In all of these cases, we need 2/3 matches to fall our way. In every single case, the team that we need to win is the current bookmaker's favourite, and nearly all of them are top 5.

 

[Hobbes]

I would have though even with 2 wins you'd still be a chance to miss no?

Yes, a chance. In virtually all cases we need two out of three matches to fall our way in the last round. However, those matches are:

Carlton v GWS (we want Carlton)
Essendon v Collingwood (we want Collingwood)
Sydney v Melbourne (we want Melbourne)
St Kilda v Brisbane (we want Brisbane)
Geelong v Bulldogs (we want Geelong)

In all cases, we're cheering on the bookies' favourite.

The last match of the loser of GWS and Essendon is moot.
If St Kilda win this week then their last match is moot.

My calculations may be thrown into a spin if there's a draw. Apart from that, I've just assumed that Bulldogs will beat West Coast, and we're perfectly charmed if they don't.

 

[MF]

Yes, a chance. In virtually all cases we need two out of three matches to fall our way in the last round. However, those matches are:

Carlton v GWS (we want Carlton)
Essendon v Collingwood (we want Collingwood)
Sydney v Melbourne (we want Melbourne)
St Kilda v Brisbane (we want Brisbane)
Geelong v Bulldogs (we want Geelong)

In all cases, we're cheering on the bookies' favourite.

The last match of the loser of GWS and Essendon is moot.
If St Kilda win this week then their last match is moot.

My calculations may be thrown into a spin if there's a draw. Apart from that, I've just assumed that Bulldogs will beat West Coast, and we're perfectly charmed if they don't.

Yeah, based on that I'd say you're a good chance if you win this weekend. Huge game for both teams.

 

[Wolfgang West]

There are several teams in the 8 at the moment and i am buggered if i know why? The Swans are one of them, Crows by 42 points

There are also some very ordinary sides out of the eight still in the hunt. Go figure.

 

[CrowToon]

Adelaide's percentage and final round against West Coast mean that we're better-placed than we look. In all of these cases, we need 2/3 matches to fall our way. In every single case, the team that we need to win is the current bookmaker's favourite, and nearly all of them are top 5.

And we know that if too many of them do fall over it's because they were too scared to face us in the finals.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

There are several teams in the 8 at the moment and i am buggered if i know why? The Swans are one of them

Just a hunch, but it could have to do with the fact that we've won our last 5 games.

 

[Banga19]

Swans in a close one

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Another game that will shape the 8.
If Swans can't win this, I think they're done. A win for the Crows will see them still in with a chance.
Both sides have looked much better in the past 4 weeks. Apart from Lions, most of the Crows' home wins have been against sides that were struggling.
Think the Swans might pinch this in a close one.

 

[PCORF]

If Adelaide wins this one, they will probably finish 8th with West Coast to come in the final round. But Adelaide don't have a great recent home record vs the Swans.

 

[davos44]

If Adelaide wins this one, they will probably finish 8th with West Coast to come in the final round. But Adelaide don't have a great recent home record vs the Swans.

Bit rough, Adelaide have only played them twice in at AO in the last 6 years which Sydney won by 3 points each time.

 

[Wosh]

Teams are up

 

[AusTerran]

Congrats Sydney, Nicks sh*t himself at selection again lol

 

[Go the Guts]

Congrats Sydney, Nicks sh*t himself at selection again lol

He better do the last minute switch thing he's done a few times and reinstate Pedlar for Sloane.

 

[BACCS]

Why have we barely played Sydney at AO in the last few years? 2020 round one is the last time and before that it was 2017.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Bit rough, Adelaide have only played them twice in at AO in the last 6 years which Sydney won by 3 points each time.

He stands corrected. Those are great results for the Crows...

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Bloods to bolt in.

 

[PerthBoy86]

I don't even think that the hopes are that faint. I think Adelaide are about 65% to make the finals if they win this. The last round is probably not just a bankable win but a percentage-booster.

I'm so miffed you got robbed in that second Collingwood game. Would much rather see you in finals than St Kilda, Geelong, Sydney, GWS.

 

[CCurnow3votes]

Bloods to bolt in.

...Bolt into the change room after the drubbing they're about to get.