mattys123
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2012 AFL PREMIERSHIP SEASON
ROUND 21
COLLINGWOOD VS NORTH MELBOURNE
ETIHAD STADIUM
SATURDAY AUGUST 18TH 7.40PM
TV/Radio;
Weather;
Preview (Dave86);
http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/newsfeatures/news/newsarticle/tabid/5586/newsid/144736/default.aspx
Ticketing;
My Thoughts;
204 POINTS, that was the aggregate total between the Collingwood and North Melbourne football clubs during the 2011 AFL premiership season, as the Magpies, on their way to their second consecutive Grand Final appearance destroyed the Kangaroos by margins of 87 and 117 points in performances that showed just how big the gap was between the two teams last year. But a lot has changed in 12 months, last year North Melbourne simply could not compete against the top sides in the AFL, yet this year they have not only competed but at times defeated some top class outfits in a season that has seen the young Roos rise from a side that did not make the finals last year to a team that looks as if it may be a dangerous prospect for any side should it, as expected make the final eight in 2012. It hasn't been all plain sailing for the Kangaroos in 2012 though, as a mid year slump that saw them lose 4 out of 5 games between rounds 6 and 10 left them with only a 4-6 win/loss record heading into their bye, and saw North Melbourne having to make a drastic turn in form if they were to even challenge for a spot in the final eight late in the year.
After the bye though a different outfit in blue and white stripes emerged, as since the round 11 week off the Roos have only lost the one game, and even that was by such a small margin (2 points) that many thought they were unlucky to lose in Hobart against the premiership contending West Coast Eagles. That loss has seen the Kangaroos fly up the ladder over the last 9 weeks and sees them currently sitting in a season high sixth position with just three rounds remaining in the home and away season.
Meanwhile, over at Collingwood, North's opponent on Saturday Night at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne's Dockland's region, things have been chugging along at a rather strange pace over the past few weeks, with losses by big margins, wins by smaller margins and an internal club suspension leaving many to question whether the Magpies are a genuine premiership contender. Then came the contest against Sydney last weekend at the Olympic Stadium up north, where the Magpies were almost written off once again, after trailing by 17 points late in the third quarter, and having in game injuries to Thomas, Jolly, Maxwell and Fasolo, only to rally strongly over the last quarter and a half to come away with a season defining 8 point win over the ladder leading Swans. It was the type of win that gives a playing group the confidence to believe it can achieve great things, and for the first time in 2012 new coach Nathan Buckley even joined in the winners circle as the song was sung as loud as it has been since the epic preliminary final win last September. The Magpies on the night had plenty of contributors, but it was the form of four tall players, Dawes, Cloke, Reid and Brown that would have bought a smile to the heart of any Collingwood fan watching, as all four contributed greatly in a sapping, finals like contest where the Magpies eventually overcame the ever intense Swans. Once again though Collingwood won not only on the back of some star performances, but by an even contribution of all of it's team members as even youngsters like Paul Seedsman and Jamie Elliott had an impact on the game late on. Maybe the best sign for Collingwood in the great win over the Swans was the return of the immensely talented Alan Didak, who once subbed on for the injured Dale Thomas had an immediate impact on the game kicking an all important goal in the second quarter before showing time and time again just how much the team in black and white stripes has missed his sublime skills, mostly via that deadly accurate left boot. It was a win that saw Collingwood tie both Adelaide and Sydney for first spot with 60 premiership points (15 wins) with three games remaining before the finals begin.
Both teams will front up on Saturday thinking they can win this game, and rightfully so, as North have been night on unbeatable at Eithad Stadium while Collingwood showed last week that no matter who they have on the field they can beat any team at any time. Collingwood may go into a game unchanged for the first time in a long time, with the only real injury concern being over Dale Thomas, who suffered a severe corked thigh that saw him substituted out in the second quarter last week. All reports state that Thomas has been training, but has appeared to be slightly restricted, but with a few days yet to rehabilitate that injury Thomas should be right to go. The Magpies do have some decisions to make though regarding three senior players that have returned in the VFL over the past few weeks as knee injury victims Brent Macaffer and Andrew Krakouer have completed two full games while club stalwart, and premiership star Ben Johnson returned from a long term shoulder injury to show that he had lost none of his touch with a performance that saw him named in the Magpies best players against Sandringham on Sunday. It is unlikely that any three will be seriously considered this week, but Johnson would probably be leading the race to return at the moment. The Magpies may also consider youngsters Jackson Paine, Jarrod Witts and the back up ruckman Cameron Wood although unless Darren Jolly is sore because of a knee to the back from last weeks game it seems Wood will have to return through the VFL after a week off.
The Magpies will be looking to continue on with the type of intensity level that saw them defeat the Swans last week, as their biggest obstacle in the final three weeks may be complacency with a top four spot all but assured now.
Opposition Analysis.
Once again Collingwood runs into a team on a winning streak, as North Melbourne enter this matchup on the back of a six game winning streak which has seen them defeat fellow finals contenders Essendon, Carlton and Richmond in impressive fashion. Maybe the most impressive performance of their recent run came last week though when the Roos came from behind to beat the Bombers despite having several players sitting on the bench due to injury who could not contribute. The Roos have formed a team that has a great mix of youth, middle tiered players and experienced stars that has seen them become a team that no one wants to meet come the finals. This weekend they will lose a few players due to injury, with Nathan Grima (hamstring) and Daniel Wells (calf) and tough tagger Leigh Adams also in doubt after again having troubles with his shoulder last weekend. But the Roos will get back two big names in Jack Ziebell and Lindsay Thomas, who both return after serving suspensions, although many still question the length of Ziebell's punishment.
North Melbourne's midfield definitely doesn't get the respect or attention from the media or football public that it deserves, and this is despite their midfield being as potent and effective as just about any over the past few months. Led by their captain Andrew Swallow, and the ever present Brent Harvey, the Roos midfield is in the top six in the league for both contested possessions and clearances and is ranked second in total hitouts with only the mighty Eagles combo sitting in front of them. As most know, if your midfield is able to get first use of the ball it leads to so many advantages, whether it be free kicks, better delivery into your forward line or just making the opposition chase too much, and North do all these in spades. How good Todd Goldstein has been for the Kangaroos this season can't be underestimated either, as for the most part he has rucked one out against the best the AFL has to offer in the rucks, and on most occasions he has come out on top. The Jolly vs Goldstein match up should be one worth watching for sure.
The Kangaroo's defense might be the weak point of the current line up, but it may also have more to do with the style of play North play than the actual ability of the players down back. North sit 13th for points conceded in 2012, but they sit 2nd for points in total offence, so it shows their game style is one that leads to an average higher score than just about any other team in the AFL. The backline does have talent though, led by Scott Thompson and Michael Firrito who know no other way than to be at a high intensity level for every contest of every game. Losing Nathan Grima this week will hurt the Roos against the likes of Dawes, Cloke and Tarrant, but North do have choices at VFL level so their backline will still be competitive against the Pies. If North really lack anything, it may be a full time small/medium defender who could take the likes of a Didak, Sinclair or Fasolo this week, with Scott McMahon and Shaun Atley maybe the choices to take the smaller Pies forwards on Saturday Night.
North will try and out score Collingwood though, just like they have every other side when they have won (obviously), but there is no doubt that coach Brad Scott has given his players license to attack and play on at almost all costs, and in recent works it has worked to perfection. And why wouldn't you want to play on and move the ball forward to an offensive grouping that includes names like Petrie, Thomas, Tarrant (Robbie, who will play against older brother Chris for the first time) Hansen, Wright Campbell and Harper. There's more than just one reason why North sit second for total points scored in 2012, and that grouping gives the Kangaroos fans plenty of entertainment, and hope on a weekly basis. North do have a nice spread of goal kickers with five in total kicking 20 goals or more this season, with Drew Petrie obviously leading the way with 52, which finds him in with an outside chance of winning the Coleman medal. His matchup with Nathan Brown will pit two of the best players in their respective positions against one another in a duel that will be one of the highlights of this game.
The fact this game is being held at North Melbourne's home ground, Etihad Stadium, despite being a Collingwood home game gives North a bigger advantage than most are probably going to mention. There's little doubt that the Kangaroos are a several goal better team under the roof than they are at the MCG, and the opposite probably goes for Collingwood, who definitely produce their best football in natural conditions, as proven once again last week against Sydney in wet and windy conditions in Sydney. Brad Scott may tweak the North Melbourne game plan a little and play slightly more defensive against the first top side they have met since their lost to the Eagles in Hobart, but you would still expect the Kangaroos to look to move the ball quickly when they get hold if it. North don't have to win this game to make the finals, but if they could pull it off they would all but seal a top eight birth and a spot in September.
Teams;
Tip.
This will be an exciting game to watch, more so than the Pies vs Swan or Kangaroos vs Bombers games of last weekend as both sides will be fighting hard to ensure they keep their current positions on the ladder with teams both above and below them likely to win this weekend, a loss would mean at least one spot lost on the ladder for the defeated team. It will be a more attacking game than the ones the Pies have been in lately, as both the likelihood of a closed roof and the attacking nature of North Melbourne, as well as the potent forward lines of both teams.
Collingwood has it's only injury concerns going into the match, but if Dale Thomas and Darren Jolly come through their hits on the weekend, they should take their place in a line-up that is as strong as any the Magpies have put on the field this year. While on the other side, North will get Ziebell and Thomas back, but will lose key defender Grima and the skilful Wells to injuries sustained last week.
On paper, this seems like an easy win to Collingwood, especially with the North player losses due to injury, but being at Etihad definitely gives the Kangas an advantage and may see them push, or even defeat the Magpies in a highly competitive game of football. But ultimately I see the Magpies gaining a huge amount of confidence out of last weeks win and finding a way to both outplay, and finally outscore North to come away with a hard fought, 3-4 goal win.
Pies by 18.
VFL
The Collingwood VFL team this week returns to their home ground, at Victoria Park to take on the Casey Scorpions at 1pm on Saturday. There was talk that Dane Swan might play in this game, but the club has confirmed he won't go around this weekend. The likes of Krakouer, Johnson, Macaffer, Witts, Paine, Wood and Josh Thomas will still be worth checking out though.
GO PIES.
Edit; I get a gameday tag now, woo hoo.
