Strategy Changes & Pre-match Discussion - Round 21 vs. Hawthorn, MCG, Sat 05/08, 4:35pm

[gouki88]

I also think Frampton’s fallen off a small cliff. His VFL form is nothing short of mediocre by comparison to his SANFL form in 2022.

Your points from yesterday on our clearance game and the forward groups that have gotten us was scary for me as someone that’s been a staunch “follow the plan” poster. Whilst clearance isn’t our game we were at our best with Frampton or Cox in there because it was more predictable than Cameron. A predictable win with Cox or predictable loss with Frampton is always easier to rove to than the unknown of Cameron. If we’re to win it from here we don’t need to become a dominant stoppage team, but we need to improve, IMO. I’m struggling to see where that improvement comes from with the current structure. The second point was that smaller forward lines will trouble us which set off serious alarm bells because in the case of Brisbane their talls and smalls are dangerous and Melbourne has a good mosquito fleet. Both teams are stoppage based so if we’re losing the territory game against those teams and their smalls get on top what then?

I’m loathe to be a doomsayer, but the doubts are creeping in primarily because clubs are starting to get good at taking the corridor from us and we’ve only got one more opportunity to silence those doubts pre finals. That’s completely ignoring the anxiety that’s going to build when we drop at least one of the other 3. All we’ll have left is an “eyes on the finals” mentality because the current trend is making it hard to imagine we’ll be running on all cylinders by Rd 24 even with a full list to choose from… Anyway with a bit more clarity since the weekend:

In: Frampton and Hill
Out: Cox and Mitchell

Frampton to 1st ruck and Cameron into the fwd ruck role he cut his teeth on. I think that provides the best opportunity to improve our stoppage work, but it also adds flex within the 23 to throw the magnets around with Howe, Frampton and Cameron. Hill for Mitchell is based purely on my perception of who is most vulnerable and not me having the slows on Mitchell.

The actual change will be Hill for WHE, IMO.

I found this suggestion an interesting one. I thought Frampton had some really good games as 1st ruck, like Anzac Day & against the Bombers. I think Frampton adds a bit of speed at ground level from the ruck position, which might help defensively.

I don't know that I agree with dropping Mitchell, unless you are moving him to the sub role. I could see either he or Adams both working in that role.

I am not sure that Cox is safe, which you seem to think with your "actual change" line. I got the feeling from Fly's press conference was that Cox would be given a run in the reserves to find his best form, rather than struggling for 50% game time in the seniors (which drives me insane!).

 

[stormskye]

I also think Frampton’s fallen off a small cliff. His VFL form is nothing short of mediocre by comparison to his SANFL form in 2022.

Your points from yesterday on our clearance game and the forward groups that have gotten us was scary for me as someone that’s been a staunch “follow the plan” poster. Whilst clearance isn’t our game we were at our best with Frampton or Cox in there because it was more predictable than Cameron. A predictable win with Cox or predictable loss with Frampton is always easier to rove to than the unknown of Cameron. If we’re to win it from here we don’t need to become a dominant stoppage team, but we need to improve, IMO. I’m struggling to see where that improvement comes from with the current structure. The second point was that smaller forward lines will trouble us which set off serious alarm bells because in the case of Brisbane their talls and smalls are dangerous and Melbourne has a good mosquito fleet. Both teams are stoppage based so if we’re losing the territory game against those teams and their smalls get on top what then?

I’m loathe to be a doomsayer, but the doubts are creeping in primarily because clubs are starting to get good at taking the corridor from us and we’ve only got one more opportunity to silence those doubts pre finals. That’s completely ignoring the anxiety that’s going to build when we drop at least one of the other 3. All we’ll have left is an “eyes on the finals” mentality because the current trend is making it hard to imagine we’ll be running on all cylinders by Rd 24 even with a full list to choose from… Anyway with a bit more clarity since the weekend:

In: Frampton and Hill
Out: Cox and Mitchell

Frampton to 1st ruck and Cameron into the fwd ruck role he cut his teeth on. I think that provides the best opportunity to improve our stoppage work, but it also adds flex within the 23 to throw the magnets around with Howe, Frampton and Cameron. Hill for Mitchell is based purely on my perception of who is most vulnerable and not me having the slows on Mitchell.

The actual change will be Hill for WHE, IMO.

Framptons first vfl game 2 weeks ago was excellent, he was a wall they couldn’t get past. Last week Carlton kicked it anywhere where he wasn’t. They actively avoided kicking it near. He’s been solid IMO.

 

[Kirby]

The frees were all there, even if a bit soft. And I don’t think Maynard was ever “on” Curnow - I think he was closest after Curnow gave Moore the slip - so that’s on Moore too. Bottom line - Curnow kicked six goals as his direct opponent. It’s ludicrous to suggest that Moore had anything other than a terrible game.

Regardless, Moore has a history of being exposed one-on-one against power forwards and in that role we also lose his intercepting and rebound. Why on Earth would you want that? We need to free him up. Frampton in for Howe would achieve that.


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How can you even defend 2 of those frees - soft is an understatement. It was rub of the green.

Btw, you do know that our defence plays a team defence. I take it you weren't there? There were large portions of the game where Moore was positioned in front of Curnow with Murphy deepest on Curnow.

Moore does not have a history of being exposed by power forwards - there's barely a handful of times. Just like any other key back.

I really don't think you understand how our defence operates.

 

[Kirby]

I also think Frampton’s fallen off a small cliff. His VFL form is nothing short of mediocre by comparison to his SANFL form in 2022.

Your points from yesterday on our clearance game and the forward groups that have gotten us was scary for me as someone that’s been a staunch “follow the plan” poster. Whilst clearance isn’t our game we were at our best with Frampton or Cox in there because it was more predictable than Cameron. A predictable win with Cox or predictable loss with Frampton is always easier to rove to than the unknown of Cameron. If we’re to win it from here we don’t need to become a dominant stoppage team, but we need to improve, IMO. I’m struggling to see where that improvement comes from with the current structure. The second point was that smaller forward lines will trouble us which set off serious alarm bells because in the case of Brisbane their talls and smalls are dangerous and Melbourne has a good mosquito fleet. Both teams are stoppage based so if we’re losing the territory game against those teams and their smalls get on top what then?

I’m loathe to be a doomsayer, but the doubts are creeping in primarily because clubs are starting to get good at taking the corridor from us and we’ve only got one more opportunity to silence those doubts pre finals. That’s completely ignoring the anxiety that’s going to build when we drop at least one of the other 3. All we’ll have left is an “eyes on the finals” mentality because the current trend is making it hard to imagine we’ll be running on all cylinders by Rd 24 even with a full list to choose from… Anyway with a bit more clarity since the weekend:

In: Frampton and Hill
Out: Cox and Mitchell

Frampton to 1st ruck and Cameron into the fwd ruck role he cut his teeth on. I think that provides the best opportunity to improve our stoppage work, but it also adds flex within the 23 to throw the magnets around with Howe, Frampton and Cameron. Hill for Mitchell is based purely on my perception of who is most vulnerable and not me having the slows on Mitchell.

The actual change will be Hill for WHE, IMO.

How is Cameron unpredictable?

We are not one man down when the ball hits the deck when he rucks like with Cox. He's not a key forward and would just make as slower down there.

Weird post.

You sound depressed.

 

[sr36]

I also think Frampton’s fallen off a small cliff. His VFL form is nothing short of mediocre by comparison to his SANFL form in 2022.

Your points from yesterday on our clearance game and the forward groups that have gotten us was scary for me as someone that’s been a staunch “follow the plan” poster. Whilst clearance isn’t our game we were at our best with Frampton or Cox in there because it was more predictable than Cameron. A predictable win with Cox or predictable loss with Frampton is always easier to rove to than the unknown of Cameron. If we’re to win it from here we don’t need to become a dominant stoppage team, but we need to improve, IMO. I’m struggling to see where that improvement comes from with the current structure. The second point was that smaller forward lines will trouble us which set off serious alarm bells because in the case of Brisbane their talls and smalls are dangerous and Melbourne has a good mosquito fleet. Both teams are stoppage based so if we’re losing the territory game against those teams and their smalls get on top what then?

I’m loathe to be a doomsayer, but the doubts are creeping in primarily because clubs are starting to get good at taking the corridor from us and we’ve only got one more opportunity to silence those doubts pre finals. That’s completely ignoring the anxiety that’s going to build when we drop at least one of the other 3. All we’ll have left is an “eyes on the finals” mentality because the current trend is making it hard to imagine we’ll be running on all cylinders by Rd 24 even with a full list to choose from… Anyway with a bit more clarity since the weekend:

In: Frampton and Hill
Out: Cox and Mitchell

Frampton to 1st ruck and Cameron into the fwd ruck role he cut his teeth on. I think that provides the best opportunity to improve our stoppage work, but it also adds flex within the 23 to throw the magnets around with Howe, Frampton and Cameron. Hill for Mitchell is based purely on my perception of who is most vulnerable and not me having the slows on Mitchell.

The actual change will be Hill for WHE, IMO.

It's all about pressure for us and whether we can maintain enough to get teams to bash it forward for us to intercept before they've got enough troops forward to stop us slingshotting it back past them. I think what we're doing will stand up in the finals when the pressure goes up. Even in the Carlton and Melbourne losses - in the first 15 and last 15 minutes when the game was at its most manic - we looked the better team. We've just got to keep it manic for long enough.

I think what TheVillageIdiot7 suggested the other day is an interesting watch - does playing two such attacking mids in Nick and JDG damage our pressure?

Ultimately, we can't remove all doubts before the finals - we can only do it by winning finals. It's been a great season from us so far, but it's been long enough - bring on the finals.

 

[sr36]

How is Cameron unpredictable?

We are not one man down when the ball hits the deck when he rucks like with Cox. He's not a key forward and would just make as slower down there.

Weird post.

You sound depressed.

He meant it's unpredictable whether we are going to win or lose the ruck contest - so we can't really set up for either.

 

[Kirby]

He meant it's unpredictable whether we are going to win or lose the ruck contest - so we can't really set up for either.

Because Cox and Frampton always win?

Their percentages are all similar.

 

[gouki88]

It's all about pressure for us and whether we can maintain enough to get teams to bash it forward for us to intercept before they've got enough troops forward to stop us slingshotting it back past them. I think what we're doing will stand up in the finals when the pressure goes up. Even in the Carlton and Melbourne losses - in the first 15 and last 15 minutes when the game was at its most manic - we looked the better team. We've just got to keep it manic for long enough.

I think what TheVillageIdiot7 suggested the other day is an interesting watch - does playing two such attacking mids in Nick and JDG damage our pressure?

Ultimately, we can't remove all doubts before the finals - we can only do it by winning finals. It's been a great season from us so far, but it's been long enough - bring on the finals.

I wonder if moving Crisp out of the middle (or so it appears to me) has hurt that. He wasn't winning much footy, but he might have been helping defensively?

 

[sr36]

I wonder if moving Crisp out of the middle (or so it appears to me) has hurt that. He wasn't winning much footy, but he might have been helping defensively?

I just think we were flat against Carlton, but it's a possibility that having two blokes looking to burst forward from stoppage isn't what we should have. However, I'm not convinced that it was stoppage entries that hurt us and thus those two being in the centre square together- more that our general around the ground pressure was down.

 

[gouki88]

I just think we were flat against Carlton, but it's a possibility that having two blokes looking to burst forward from stoppage isn't what we should have. However, I'm not convinced that it was stoppage entries that hurt us and thus those two being in the centre square together- more that our general around the ground pressure was down.

I agree, I think there was a general lack of energy. Our ability to constrict ball movement was pretty poor, and we got beaten for speed at either end. Hopefully the couple of days off have refreshed us a bit.

 

[sideswipe]

How is Cameron unpredictable?

We are not one man down when the ball hits the deck when he rucks like with Cox. He's not a key forward and would just make as slower down there.

Weird post.

You sound depressed.

The mood swings around here are very, er, swingy. Might be time for us to start a re-build.

 

[JuniorB]

Framptons first vfl game 2 weeks ago was excellent, he was a wall they couldn’t get past. Last week Carlton kicked it anywhere where he wasn’t. They actively avoided kicking it near. He’s been solid IMO.

A lot depends on specific matchups.
For example, if we played Geelong, Howe and Murphy would get ragdolled by Hawkins, so Frampton would be a good matchup.

 

[brockbruiser]

Moore does not have a history of being exposed by power forwards - there's barely a handful of times. Just like any other key back.

Actually Moore has a reasonably high contested marking loss rate, think it's around 27%, they were talking about this on the couch a few weeks back. I understand we play a team defence and Moore plays an interceptor role, but he's not an amazing contested mark, often gets out-bodied.

We really need another strong lock down defensive type, a Presti type to free up Moore. I'd imagine Murphy will play the Howe role in the future as he's playing undersized despite doing a great job.

 

[Scodog10]

How is Cameron unpredictable?

We are not one man down when the ball hits the deck when he rucks like with Cox. He's not a key forward and would just make as slower down there.

Weird post.

You sound depressed.

Sr was correct. Can you share the hitout win % stats for the 3 considering they’re all similar? It doesn’t match the eye except Cameron v Port. Cameron’s a better mark than Cox so I would assume it wouldn’t be on the deck as often.

I appreciate your keyboard assessment of my mental health and I can confirm I’m not depressed just making an assessment of the current trend. I’m sure it differs to yours based on this response and I know it differs to McRae’s based on his comments in the presser.

 

[Scodog10]

Framptons first vfl game 2 weeks ago was excellent, he was a wall they couldn’t get past. Last week Carlton kicked it anywhere where he wasn’t. They actively avoided kicking it near. He’s been solid IMO.

If Carlton were actually doing that and he was at that level his form would be rewarded ahead of Cox. The bolded was more my point. Yes he’s been solid, but he was spectacular in the SANFL.

 

[Kirby]

Actually Moore has a reasonably high contested marking loss rate, think it's around 27%, they were talking about this on the couch a few weeks back. I understand we play a team defence and Moore plays an interceptor role, but he's not an amazing contested mark, often gets out-bodied.

We really need another strong lock down defensive type, a Presti type to free up Moore. I'd imagine Murphy will play the Howe role in the future as he's playing undersized despite doing a great job.

That's an unreliable stat because of the fact that Moore goes for marks, so of course he's going to lose some and more than someone like Murphy who mostly spoils. It's a by-product of the way we play.

Moore is one of the best contested marks in the game.

 

[gouki88]

Actually Moore has a reasonably high contested marking loss rate, think it's around 27%, they were talking about this on the couch a few weeks back. I understand we play a team defence and Moore plays an interceptor role, but he's not an amazing contested mark, often gets out-bodied.

We really need another strong lock down defensive type, a Presti type to free up Moore. I'd imagine Murphy will play the Howe role in the future as he's playing undersized despite doing a great job.

Moore is 3rd in contested marks in the entire competition. He is by definition an elite contested mark

 

[TheVillageIdiot7]

I just think we were flat against Carlton, but it's a possibility that having two blokes looking to burst forward from stoppage isn't what we should have. However, I'm not convinced that it was stoppage entries that hurt us and thus those two being in the centre square together- more that our general around the ground pressure was down.

Its the biggest thing i've seen creep into our game since the bye.
That lack of manic crazy attack.....and missed tackles (one of the most underrated reasons why clubs win / lose the midfield battle).

Think you're spot on with the around the grounds pressure. It's hurt us recently.
Need to see what happens this week to work out whether last week was a blip, or a trend.

As much as i want us to be more defensively minded in all stoppages and not be so aggressive....it's highly likely Fly and Co will double down and just go even harder in the offensive space!

Next few weeks are fascinating from a tactical perspective.

 

[Kirby]

Sr was correct. Can you share the hitout win % stats for the 3 considering they’re all similar? It doesn’t match the eye except Cameron v Port. Cameron’s a better mark than Cox so it wouldn’t assume it would be on the deck as often.

I appreciate your keyboard assessment of my mental health and I can confirm I’m not depressed just making an assessment of the current trend. I’m sure it differs to yours based on this response and I know it differs to McRae’s based on his comments in the presser.

I shouldn't have added the last sentence to my post which was just an offhand joke but your post has a very negative vibe which just seems to have permeated amongst a lot of posters here this week after the Carlton loss.

I don't have any stats on hand but that's my memory of them. I'm talking about Cameron v Cox when the ball hits the deck after a bounce or ball up or throw in.

 

[TheVillageIdiot7]

I wonder if moving Crisp out of the middle (or so it appears to me) has hurt that. He wasn't winning much footy, but he might have been helping defensively?

He's been much better since he was sent to half back.
Not a co-incidence his rise in form is aligned to him moving out of the midfield.

But i think you're right in that it may have hurt us defensively.

If he is to move back into the middle, then for me, its a swap with Nick.

 

[Scodog10]

I shouldn't have added the last sentence to my post which was just an offhand joke but your post has a very negative vibe which just seems to have permeated amongst a lot of posters here this week after the Carlton loss.

I don't have any stats on hand but that's my memory of them. I'm talking about Cameron v Cox when the ball hits the deck after a bounce or ball up or throw in.

You’re an experienced poster both in age and time on BF so surely it hasn’t come as a surprise that their’s negativity following a loss in a season where some are expecting us to waltz to the flag. I’m very much a realist though and understand that losses are inevitable so the Carlton one in isolation isn’t a factor other than partially being about how it played out.

Me personally in terms of the cooling (that’s what I’d call it rather than negativity) it’s probably a build up of little things growing into bigger things that individually aren’t that concerning, but as a collective could take hold. I won’t bore people with them, but assumptions such as Sr’s about the pressure of finals lifting us is a big one given what the eye is currently telling me. I mean we’ve had two significant 4 quarter performances since April (v GC and GWS) which runs counter to what you expect to see of an eventual premier.

The other factor to it and why I’m wary, not concerned, is that our current direct competition within the top 4 are trending the same, but I suspect Melbourne will take significant momentum into the finals because they’ve figured out they’re better off without Grundy and they won’t drop another H&A match, IMO. Right now I’d be shifting my money from a Collingwood v Brisbane GF to a Collingwood v Melbourne GF.

Edit: just to add though on the Cox v Cameron point you made that’s why I’d use Frampton as the 1st ruck. I think he gives us something at ground level in that role that only Finlayson can offer amongst our competitors.

 

[sideswipe]

You’re an experienced poster both in age and time on BF so surely it hasn’t come as a surprise that their’s negativity following a loss in a season where some are expecting us to waltz to the flag. I’m very much a realist though and understand that losses are inevitable so the Carlton one in isolation isn’t a factor other than partially being about how it played out.

Me personally in terms of the cooling (that’s what I’d call it rather than negativity) it’s probably a build up of little things growing into bigger things that individually aren’t that concerning, but as a collective could take hold. I won’t bore people with them, but assumptions such as Sr’s about the pressure of finals lifting us is a big one given what the eye is currently telling me. I mean we’ve had two significant 4 quarter performances since April (v GC and GWS) which runs counter to what you expect to see of an eventual premier.

The other factor to it and why I’m wary, not concerned, is that our current direct competition within the top 4 are trending the same, but I suspect Melbourne will take significant momentum into the finals because they’ve figured out they’re better off without Grundy and they won’t drop another H&A match, IMO. Right now I’d be shifting my money from a Collingwood v Brisbane GF to a Collingwood v Melbourne GF.

Edit: just to add though on the Cox v Cameron point you made that’s why I’d use Frampton as the 1st ruck. I think he gives us something at ground level in that role that only Finlayson can offer amongst our competitors.

One can be rather selective on when to decide what is recent form? Melbourne are 4-0 recently, or 4-2 if you go back two more games. Now is not the time to panic, or even fret.

 

[Soaring Magpie]

My thoughts are that last weeks loss was about 3-4 in the making, the side has looked to be in cruise control for most of the second half of the year and just getting the job done.
This is where the drop off in all the numbers and key indicators stem from, and after the high of PA the week before I was never confident last week.
The coaching side has some work to do to get this group refocused and switched on from now which will give us a month to prepare and iron out the issues that have build of the last number of weeks.
The side is certainly capable of big things but it starts this week with a solid performance.

 

[gouki88]

He's been much better since he was sent to half back.
Not a co-incidence his rise in form is aligned to him moving out of the midfield.

But i think you're right in that it may have hurt us defensively.

If he is to move back into the middle, then for me, its a swap with Nick.

Agreed that he has been better, his run off the back flank has been great. I think I would potentially make the swap of he into the middle and Nick off the flank again. Might be good for Nick to not get hammered by opposing taggers every week in the lead-up to finals.

 

[sr36]

He's been much better since he was sent to half back.
Not a co-incidence his rise in form is aligned to him moving out of the midfield.

But i think you're right in that it may have hurt us defensively.

If he is to move back into the middle, then for me, its a swap with Nick.

I could be wrong but don't think he was playing a great deal of mid previously - he seemed to be chopping out in lot of different areas.
, with mid being one of those areas.
Personally, I'd have and Nick and him in that half back role and a midfield role and change them depending on the situation and how things are going.