Strategy Changes & Pre-match Discussion - GRAND FINAL vs. Brisbane MCG, 2:30pm Sat 30/09

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The Royal Sampler

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Geez I hope we win with most of the media tipping against us for the third time in a row. Never seen a team who finished on top of the ladder easily get talked down and disrespected as much as us.

The footy media are just not that insightful, they’ve seen Brisbane beat us twice this year already and so that’s what guides their decision making. But as we’ve seen with GWS vs Port, these results can turn around quickly; a 74-point turnaround in 34 days, and that’s without a venue change.

Brisbane have some wild home/away splits, they’re not nearly the same team away from the Gabba except perhaps at Marvel. Turning around a 4 goal margin, moving to the MCG and regaining Moore/De Goey/Daicos/Hill is certainly not beyond us.
 

anshell

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If anyone thinks that the grand final is going to be like the round 23 game and the Lions are going to kick 19 goals,then they’re seriously misreading the situation.That game was like a glorified basketball game with little or no pressure.It will be nothing like that in the grand final.
 

Scodog10

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they kicked 82 points from turnover when we last met -that's a huge outlier and they will not be doing that again.
Given there’s basically only two ways to score (clearance and turnover) I think you’ll find 82 points out of 124 is not considered an outlier. The outlier would be more putting 124 points past us, but again they’ve average 120 across the past 4 so not an outlier. Are you able to find what they’ve scored on turnover across the other 3 matches that make up the 120 average?

FWIW we can add the 5th match which brings the average down to 110 which is still incredibly high for Collingwood.
 

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Lifelong Pie

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Given there’s basically only two ways to score (clearance and turnover) I think you’ll find 82 points out of 124 is not considered an outlier. The outlier would be more putting 124 points past us, but again they’ve average 120 across the past 4 so not an outlier. Are you able to find what they’ve scored on turnover across the other 3 matches that make up the 120 average?

FWIW we can add the 5th match which brings the average down to 110 which is still incredibly high for Collingwood.
If they score 100 + we are in big trouble, think we will try and make it a defensive game like our past two finals
 

Cousin of Daicos

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Frampton to kick 4 in a Tom Boydesque grand final appearance and win the game

That's what I'm hoping for

Many Grand Finals have a surprise hero bob up to perform on the day. Yesterday I said I thought that could be Beau or Frampton

I'd love nothing more than my man Frampton to have an "out of the box" game and be the reason we're holding up the cup. I've been in Frampton's corner since we recruited him and have said repeatedly that Frampton needs to play if we are to win the flag.

So much of our game is played between the ears and I can see Frampton desperate to grab his opportunity to potentially become a Premiership player.
 

Scodog10

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Hey Sco , who do you think we will go with. Do you think we bite the bullet on Frampton or back our systems and processes and go small
I genuinely have no idea. I would go with Noble for the extra run on what will be a very hot day, but I could mount a weak case for Frampton to hold Cox as our main ruck, ditto Kreuger who I think offers more than Frampton although he’s completely unknown, McInnes who I think showed enough late season in the VFL to suggest he could add something as the sub and then there’s Adams. On a pure output basis though I don’t think any of them move the dial aside from a 100% fit Adams and if we’re to win it’s more about intangibles.
 

Scritchyscroony

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But then they get no rest, which will be needed in the heat.
It they are played deep they are effectively getting rest when the balls not in their area. Its what all ruckmen used to do to get a rest prior to interchange being used for rotations.
If they really need it they can have 5 mins a quarter on the bench. That still leaves us with a 2 tall forward structure for the majority of the match.
 

Cousin of Daicos

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Frampton. Ginni in black. Noble white.
Kreuger in white.
Howe didn’t participate. Frampton was forward

Lippa played in black wing and forward.


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Perfect.

Happy with that. But I'd be ok with Adams (only if he's 100%) coming in for Lipinski. While I absolutely abhor Adam's turnovers, Lipinski isn't that far behind him on turnovers over the last month but at least Adams won't shirk a contest and will literally kill himself if it means helping us win the flag.

Lipinski just isn't hard enough. Which is disappointing because I really like the kid.
 

Big Bryza

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Agree with this with the only potential proviso that they might find a spot for Noble ( even if it’s as a sub) to be an extra in that rotation, which would allow the swing men like WHE and Pendles to spend more time forward of the ball. But Howe needs to start back. It’s great that Howe had a cameo late in the season forward with reasonable succcess so he’s always a possible plan b in-game. Frankly I think part of the reason Fly did that was to help run Howe back into form, as he had a lengthy period of rustiness after returning from injury. I thought the gWs game Howe aerially was back to near his best.

The core six backline Is not to be messed with, that’s a non negotiable.

I reckon Howe is going to rip apart the GF. Nice sunny day will be perfect conditions for his aerial ability.

After what he went through earlier in the year, he will leave nothing in the tank on Saturday.
 

sr36

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It they are played deep they are effectively getting rest when the balls not in their area. Its what all ruckmen used to do to get a rest prior to interchange being used for rotations.
If they really need it they can have 5 mins a quarter on the bench. That still leaves us with a 2 tall forward structure for the majority of the match.

Doesn't work anymore - they can't just stay deep or their man just pushes up off them to create a wall and we never get it forward.
 

sr36

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Reef has performed excellently as the sub this year.

I'd be ok with him coming in at the expense of Lipinski.

So Ginnivan and Frampton in, Lipinski out and Reef as the sub.
Lippa will play. It'll be won around the contest by hard running and getting numbers to the contest and then executing. Hopefully he can execute a damn site better than he did against GWS, but him getting to the contest isn't going to be replaced by Ginni Reef or whoever.
 

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Cousin of Daicos

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Lippa will play. It'll be won around the contest by hard running and getting numbers to the contest and then executing. Hopefully he can execute a damn site better than he did against GWS, but him getting to the contest isn't going to be replaced by Ginni Reef or whoever.

Lipinski shirks too many contests and becomes fumbly as a result. He doesn't seem to like the hard stuff.

That's the last quality you need in a Grand Final

I hope he can prove me wrong mate but I don't see it
 

manicpie

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I genuinely have no idea. I would go with Noble for the extra run on what will be a very hot day, but I could mount a weak case for Frampton to hold Cox as our main ruck, ditto Kreuger who I think offers more than Frampton although he’s completely unknown, McInnes who I think showed enough late season in the VFL to suggest he could add something as the sub and then there’s Adams. On a pure output basis though I don’t think any of them move the dial aside from a 100% fit Adams and if we’re to win it’s more about intangibles.
I like the reef inclusion. I can see both sides of the argument regarding bringing in a tall. Perhaps Frampton as a pure defender on Andrews. Nobles run and carry would be handy but he doesn't go well one on one. Who knows,
 

sr36

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Lipinski shirks too many contests and becomes fumbly as a result. He doesn't seem to like the hard stuff.

That's the last quality you need in a Grand Final

I hope he can prove me wrong mate but I don't see it
I think it was nerves and then he lost confidence last week. Recovered pretty well in the third but still a bit panicky with the ball - really sloppy handballs. Fingers crossed he can execute this time around, as I don't think they'll bring in someone else as they're not going to get to as many contests.
 

sideswipe

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Lipinski shirks too many contests and becomes fumbly as a result. He doesn't seem to like the hard stuff.

That's the last quality you need in a Grand Final

I hope he can prove me wrong mate but I don't see it

What a load of faux tough guy crap. No one at afl level shirks contest. Crap thing to say about a Pies player.

Your constant depressive whining about this team all year showed who the tough guy isn’t.


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sam_e

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Lippa will play. It'll be won around the contest by hard running and getting numbers to the contest and then executing. Hopefully he can execute a damn site better than he did against GWS, but him getting to the contest isn't going to be replaced by Ginni Reef or whoever.
it's a wildcard and it won't happen but Noble would be the one that could play that high HFF role, pushing up to stoppage, getting involved and connecting the chains into attack with run, carry & handball. has the aerobic capacity to match Lippa's output AND has the 'no holds bar' attack on ball & man that Lippa unfortunately lacks.

he could also play a role to shadow /stay close to kid cuddi
 

Cousin of Daicos

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What a load of faux tough guy crap. No one at afl level shirks contest. Crap thing to say about a Pies player.

Your constant depressive whining about this team all year showed who the tough guy isn’t.


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All year?

Yeah nah. Spare me the selective memory sh*t thanks. I don't expect you to actually back up your point. But that ignores the one constant that I simply call it as I see it.

Hey, Beau is as tough as they come and he did it too. It actually cost us a goal in the last quarter too.

I'm actually completely fine with players "pulling out" of contests where they could get legitimately hurt. It's crazy to me that these players put themselves in harm's way in a fashion that could permanently affect their lives post football for no real reason. All because some ex-footballer media pundits that played in the stone age guilt them into believing they should hurt themselves.

But Lipinski had moments where he legit tried to avoid any kind of contact, which was staggering to me. Maybe his shoulder isn't 100% and they're just not saying anything. Who knows.

I definitely look back at the 2010 finals series and there's stuff you see in hindsight where you notice Didak was definitely protecting his torn pectoral muscle. Then other moments where you see him forget it's torn and he pulls up very sore.

It could very well be that his shoulder just isn't right and he's trying to avoid making it worse. If that's not the case? Then sorry, I feel he's a avoiding a lot of the hard stuff and it's hurting us in important moments.
 

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Scritchyscroony

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Doesn't work anymore - they can't just stay deep or their man just pushes up off them to create a wall and we never get it forward.
If they follow their man upfield they are still getting rest compared to being the on ball ruckman.
We are going to be 2 v 1 in terms of genuine rucks. Throw in a 5 min break for one of them per QTR and I don't see the issue. Surely they have the tank to do that.
At the risk of our rucks getting too gassed (in a 2v1 scenario), it allows us to play the extra small. Ginni, Tay, Noble. To me it seems a better risk/reward than bringing in a likely bunny in the headlights like Krueger or Frampton.
 

SuperSub17

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Geez I hope we win with most of the media tipping against us for the third time in a row. Never seen a team who finished on top of the ladder easily get talked down and disrespected as much as us.
It’s honestly pretty funny at this point.

Heading into finals, everyone says “their last month isn’t a premiership profile, and Melbourne’s is” - some people then rightly respond with “maybe they have nothing to play for etc, we’ll see how the first final goes”

Then we beat Melbourne leading start to finish

Heading into the prelim, old mate King comes out with “GWS are the number 1 team over the last 6 weeks etc, Collingwood’s numbers are no good”

Then we win again

Now it’s “Brisbane’s numbers over the last 6 weeks are the best, Collingwood’s are still terrible!!!!”

The over reliance on stats is insane, particularly given everything is predicated on us losing a couple of dead rubbers :drunk::drunk::drunk:
 
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