Free Agency Ben McKay [Joins Essendon as RFA]

Does he stay or does he go?


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  • Poll closed .

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If late teens is his actual value, then following the logic flow through, teams don’t have any incentive to make sure he is band 1.
They won't get him if their offer isn't big enough. They have to both get him to leave North and outbid the competition. So no, they don't need to make sure the offer is Band 1 for fear of a trade, but it should get to that anyway.
 
If late teens is his actual value, then following the logic flow through, teams don’t have any incentive to make sure he is band 1.

Nah, you're not seeing the full chess board.

If a team "only" has to over-pay on one salary to get a player for free, without giving up a first round pick/any trade assets in a deal, then 9 times out of 10 a team would prefer to just eat the salary cap hit and keep the extra asset. Especially if a team is already sitting on a lot of cap flexibility.

It's not about what contract a player like Ben McKay is "worth". It's about asset management.

Do we want Ben McKay on 750k + keep our first round pick?

or

Do we want Ben McKay on 600k but we lose our first round pick?

I know what choice most AFL teams would make.
 
Nah, you're not seeing the full chess board.

If a team "only" has to over-pay on one salary to get a player for free, without giving up a first round pick/any trade assets in a deal, then 9 times out of 10 a team would prefer to just eat the salary cap hit and keep the extra asset. Especially if a team is already sitting on a lot of cap flexibility.

It's not about what contract a player like Ben McKay is "worth". It's about asset management.

Do we want Ben McKay on 750k + keep our first round pick?

or

Do we want Ben McKay on 600k but we lose our first round pick?

I know what choice most AFL teams would make.
150k per year is a lot, in that equation i am not sure it is a no brainer.

I also just don't see North matching and forcing a trade just to get almost identical compensation to what the compo pick would be. They may threaten it but i would call the bluff if i am that team.

I think a trade is the least likely out come here.

He is either going to net them band 1 and pick 3, band 2 and an end of first round pick or he will re-sign before free agency. In that order in my opinion, i just don't see a world where a trade happens.
 
150k per year is a lot, in that equation i am not sure it is a no brainer.

I also just don't see North matching and forcing a trade just to get almost identical compensation to what the compo pick would be. They may threaten it but i would call the bluff if i am that team.

I think a trade is the least likely out come here.

He is either going to net them band 1 and pick 3, band 2 and an end of first round pick or he will re-sign before free agency. In that order in my opinion, i just don't see a world where a trade happens.
I agree. We may threaten to match but we won't. Similarly the other team won't call our bluff. Neither team wants to have an acrimonious trade dragging out to the end of trade period and holding up everything else.
 
the way I expect us to play this is to offer him 700-750k

If a club beats that then he gets us band 1
Otherwise he stays and we have the cap space to accomodate
That is probably the best way for them to handle it although only guarantees it if he is only making his decision based off money.
 
I agree. We may threaten to match but we won't. Similarly the other team won't call our bluff. Neither team wants to have an acrimonious trade dragging out to the end of trade period and holding up everything else.
Well calling the bluff is simply not changing an offer to ensure band 1, if a team can secure his services for 600k (like in the original example) i don't see them bumping that up another 150k per year to ensure band 1.

I think they stick with the offer. Now it sounds like there are clubs cooked enough to be offering more so we are likely to never know how it would play out in that scenario but matching is rare and i imagine it would be similar to the Crouch scenario a few years ago if it came down to it.
 

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Well calling the bluff is simply not changing an offer to ensure band 1, if a team can secure his services for 600k (like in the original example) i don't see them bumping that up another 150k per year to ensure band 1.

I think they stick with the offer. Now it sounds like there are clubs cooked enough to be offering more so we are likely to never know how it would play out in that scenario but matching is rare and i imagine it would be similar to the Crouch scenario a few years ago if it came down to it.
If there was only one team interested then the 600K and Crouch comparisons may be relevant, but this is quite a different situation.
 
If there was only one team interested then the 600K and Crouch comparisons may be relevant, but this is quite a different situation.
How so? He will pick one team and after that it is all irrelevant. So if he decides he wants to move to a club and that offer is 600k, nothing else matters at that point.
 
the way I expect us to play this is to offer him 700-750k

If a club beats that then he gets us band 1
Otherwise he stays and we have the cap space to accomodate

You are legit trying to get Band 1 for an avg defender - another club literally needs to complete one of the worst deals in AFL history for this to occur.

Not saying another club isnt dumb enough to do it (cough Essendon cough) but If North do your plan you would have a bog avg defender on your list on 750k who doesn't really want to be there outside of being a stupid contract?

doubt that's what North really want. Especially with your list profile. You arent pushing for a flag anytime soon, why put that much money into McKay?
 
How so? He will pick one team and after that it is all irrelevant. So if he decides he wants to move to a club and that offer is 600k, nothing else matters at that point.
He'll be picking that team largely because of their offer. The competing teams will bid his contract well over that figure.
 
He'll be picking that team largely because of their offer. The competing teams will bid his contract well over that figure.
Well that is a different scenario now, all i was doing was replying to the logic of North matching a bid if it isn't band 1.

Whilst i think clubs are extremely dumb for doing it, i do agree he is likely going to get enough to get band 1.
 
Odd to assume he will only leave for a larger $ offer. He may, but it isn't at all silly to think he could want to leave simply to play elsewhere and is happy to take a pay cut from what North would offer him.
 
Odd to assume he will only leave for a larger $ offer. He may, but it isn't at all silly to think he could want to leave simply to play elsewhere and is happy to take a pay cut from what North would offer him.
Even in your fantasy, he still has options on which club he goes to. Money will be a significant consideration in his choice.
 
Odd to assume he will only leave for a larger $ offer. He may, but it isn't at all silly to think he could want to leave simply to play elsewhere and is happy to take a pay cut from what North would offer him.
he’s after top dollar according to our ITKs

Has no issue with north
 
Even in your fantasy, he still has options on which club he goes to. Money will be a significant consideration in his choice.

Yeah what a fantasy someone may wish to leave after 7 wins in 8 seasons, having to travel to Tassie every month or so and playing in front of sub 20K crowds each week.

Never said the other options would be small, just that he may not simply be farming himself out for the highest offer. It could be an anywhere but here trade as long as I get $X.
 
Odd to assume he will only leave for a larger $ offer. He may, but it isn't at all silly to think he could want to leave simply to play elsewhere and is happy to take a pay cut from what North would offer him.
exactly, he may be happy to play at 650K for 5 yrs, North match it. No trade gets done.

he goes to PSD and sets his terms similar or higher than 650K for 5. Only teams in his ear would be odds on to pick him at that deal. Surely not North at that stage.
 
Yeah what a fantasy someone may wish to leave after 7 wins in 8 seasons, having to travel to Tassie every month or so and playing in front of sub 20K crowds each week.

Never said the other options would be small, just that he may not simply be farming himself out for the highest offer. It could be an anywhere but here trade as long as I get $X.
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