Analysis Changes vs Weagles Round 11

[Dogs_R_Us]

Did set the tone for the grand final tho. Tackled Hanners into the shadow realm whom has never been the same since. Zordy is ok as a little bit of this and a little bit of that player. The quintessential journeyman. Below average at most things which is just enough to get a guernsey most weeks.

Never forget the Knee of Death. Or the first goal kicked in the GF. Not to be dismissed lightly. A Bullgod can’t be questioned. In fact I’m not so sure he shouldn’t be knighted.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Sweet vs. Witts (76 contests)
Hitouts: 24 / 38
To Advantage: 8 / 13
Clearances: 32 / 20
Score: 6.3 (39) / 3.3 (21)

Sweet vs. Cool (3 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 0
To Advantage: 2 / 0
Clearances: 2 / 1
Score: 0.0 (0) / 0.0 (0)

Cordy vs. Witts (19 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 13
To Advantage: 1 /6
Clearances: 7 / 8
Score: 1.0 (6) / 2.2 (14)

Cordy vs. Chol (6 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 2
To Advantage: 1 / 1
Clearances: 2 / 3
Score: 1.0 (6) / 1.0 (6)

When Sweet was in the ruck, he broke even with Witts to an extent (and dominated Chol in the very very small sample size) and our midfield dominated. When Cordy was in the ruck he was dominated and our midfield broke even or lost. Similar stats from the week before if you want to dig them up.

You think there is zero correlation here? Obvious hitout dominance doesn’t equal midfield dominance, but there’s more to the ruck contest for a ruckman than just hitouts.

It doesn’t get laid out any easier to understand than that

Sweet in ruck = our elite midfield dominated

Cordy in ruck = our elite midfield struggled

Lol, Why are you using the stats from one game to try and prove you’re correct?

This ruck debate has been going for 18 + months and is more around the general worth of a second ruck in our line up and what their role is. Whether it’s Sweet or not and which other Dogs ruck he beat last week is beside the point.

A lot of posters in here and even the clubs coaches don’t want 1.5 rucks on the field. Because that’s what we’re getting with a English/Sweet combo. We’d prefer 2 rucks that can play multiple roles or 1 that plays multiple roles and settle for the benefit of another mid or outfield player. I don’t have all the statistics at hand but I’ll put my house on there not being a strong correlation between ruck stats and midfield dominance. I’m also tipping this is why the coaches go with the stats styled Moneyball type approach. 1 ruck and extra mid/outfielder is statistically more beneficial for the team than 1.5 rucks. That’s what I believe to be the case.

That’s what my post was in regard to.

As for Sweet vs Cordy, claiming victory for Sweet because he was better than a defender, turned shitty forward, turned shitter ruck/forward isn’t the win you believe it is. In fact it paints Sweet in a pretty bad light.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Oliver Gigacz

Is there any chance you can provide some ruck and midfield stats when you get a chance?

- Hit outs, hit-outs to advantage per club x 2 rucks.

- Clearances (both centre and stoppage) per club.

If I’m asking too much, just tell me to get ducked lol.

I think it would go a long way to assist in the discussion being had though.

Thanks

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Oliver Gigacz

The above request is just for this season but feel free to include last yes if you want.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Sweet has played 7 games and we have won 6 of those.

I can’t stand these types of stat usages. But while we’re at it...

Do you know that in 5 of those 7 games he played as the lone ruckman?
And we won all 5 of them. The other 2 playing we went 1 win and 1 loss (the loss against Melbourne)

 

[doggies ftw]

As for Sweet vs Cordy, claiming victory for Sweet because he was better than a defender, turned shitty forward, turned shitter ruck/forward isn’t the win you believe it is. In fact it paints Sweet in a pretty bad light.

They’re literally the two options in comparison, I couldn’t give a s**t how Sweet compares to other 2nd rucks in the comp when they’re not on our list.

I would have loved us to have targeted an upgrade, we didn’t, this is what we have…. So how does directly comparing them not make sense?

 

[Dog 36]

I can’t stand these types of stat usages. But while we’re at it...

Do you know that in 5 of those 7 games he played as the lone ruckman?
And we won all 5 of them. The other 2 playing we went 1 win and 1 loss (the loss against Melbourne)

Hence my second line in that post

Although the above does not paint the whole picture it certainly mounts a case to keep playing him.

IMO we are better off with English/Sweet or English/Martin in the side.

If we keep winning we wont have anything to worry about so GO DOGS

 

[Charlie Bucket]

They’re literally the two options in comparison, I couldn’t give a s**t how Sweet compares to other 2nd rucks in the comp when they’re not on our list.

I would have loved us to have targeted an upgrade, we didn’t, this is what we have…. So how does directly comparing them not make

FMD, No ones saying it has to only be Sweet or Cordy playing the 2nd ruck role. There’s several other variations available and more on the way with Bruce back soon Cordys only being used as an example as to why Sweet isn’t exactly crash hit in the role either.

Go back and have proper read of what I’ve written. It’s got nothing to do with Sweet vs Cordy.

 

[True Dog]

FMD, No ones saying it has to only be Sweet or Cordy playing the 2nd ruck role. There’s several other variations available and more on the way with Bruce back soon Cordys only being used as an example as to why Sweet isn’t exactly crash hit in the role either.

Go back and have proper read of what I’ve written. It’s got nothing to do with Sweet vs Cordy.

I think short term there are only 2 options CB, I can't see the club risking Bruce in the short term (and he's still a month away at least to play seniors). They're trying Shack in the twos but he got destroyed against a kid on the weekend, so unless Martin discovers the fountain of youth or Buku surprises (looked like he could provide a second option however they haven't tried him in the seniors) I think the discussion the match commitee are having is Sweet or Cordy and it looks like they've gone with Sweet if only for this week.Time will tell, I for one am glad we're trying it

 

[ScottyDogg]

I for one don’t even understand the discussion on Sweet. Some of our most dominant midfield performances of the last two years, have come while Sweet has been sole rucking. I with my own eyes have seen some amazing tap work that have directly resulted in goals out of the middle. I have never seen him toweled up by anyone except Gawn and our entire team was down that game.

When English has sole rucked the whole second half of last year and the first 6 rounds of this year we have barely broke even in there.

I am not saying Sweet is a better player than English just that they perfectly compliment each other. English is unstoppable around the ground and a great roaming forward and intercept defender but really ordinary at center bounce. Sweet provides a rock solid option in the centre.

I’m calling it right now. These two together and we go on a 4-5 game winning streak. Just watch.

 

[Fossie 32]

Lets just see how its goes on Saturday night with two rucks. Keep in mind we need to perverse English for when it matters, in finals. We can't run him into the ground during home and away games. Some support from Sweet for a patch wouldn't hurt, especially coming back from a bad flu. Its likely it will be English with some sort of relief ruck later in the year, but for now I'm all for giving the two rucks a go. By the way it shouldn't be Bruce, rucking after coming back from a knee!

Took a sec to work out that 'perverse'

 

[Oliver Gigacz]

Oliver Gigacz

Is there any chance you can provide some ruck and midfield stats when you get a chance?

- Hit outs, hit-outs to advantage per club x 2 rucks.

- Clearances (both centre and stoppage) per club.

If I’m asking too much, just tell me to get ducked lol.

I think it would go a long way to assist in the discussion being had though.

Thanks

Here is where every team is ranked for hitouts, hitouts to advantage, clearances, centre clearances, ball up clearances, and throw-in clearances (R1-R10)...

Now here is the same since Sweet came in (R9-R10)...

46 players have contested 100+ ruck contests this season and this is how they have faired (ruck contests, hitouts, hitouts to advantage, hitouts sharked)...

As for the centre...

English has attended 128 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 65 times (51%), losing it 52 times (41%) and getting a secondary stoppage 10 times (8%)

Martin has attended 60 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 27 times (45%), losing it 22 times (37%) and getting a secondary stoppage 11 times (18%)

Sweet has attended 43 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 24 times (56%), losing it 12 times (28%) and getting a secondary stoppage 7 times (16%)

Cordy has attended 39 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 18 times (46%), losing it 17 times (44%) and getting a secondary stoppage 4 times (10%)

Hannan has attended 1 centre bounce which became a secondary stoppage.

Now as for the stats I posted in the review of the Gold Coast match...

Sweet vs. Witts (76 contests)
Hitouts: 24 / 38
To Advantage: 8 / 13
Clearances: 32 / 20
Score: 6.3 (39) / 3.3 (21)

Sweet vs. Chol (3 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 0
To Advantage: 2 / 0
Clearances: 2 / 1
Score: 0.0 (0) / 0.0 (0)

Cordy vs. Witts (19 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 13
To Advantage: 1 /6
Clearances: 7 / 8
Score: 1.0 (6) / 2.2 (14)

Cordy vs. Chol (6 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 2
To Advantage: 1 / 1
Clearances: 2 / 3
Score: 1.0 (6) / 1.0 (6)

I've seen a few regarding the scores, these are the scores sourced from a contest between the respective rucks.

 

[Fossie 32]

Never forget the Knee of Death. Or the first goal kicked in the GF. Not to be dismissed lightly. A Bullgod can’t be questioned. In fact I’m not so sure he shouldn’t be knighted.

View attachment 1409867

Kinshasa !!!

 

[X_box_X]

Never forget the Knee of Death. Or the first goal kicked in the GF. Not to be dismissed lightly. A Bullgod can’t be questioned. In fact I’m not so sure he shouldn’t be knighted.

View attachment 1409867

I prefer to blame Heath Shaw for losing their captain.

If it wasn't for his 'shitting the bed' clanger kick, we'd never have been given possession of the ball, and Callan's jaw wouldn't replicate that of the T-1000.

 

[footscray1973]

Personally, even 2 rucks is not enough and I can't believe we don't play 3 rucks.

Bevo has NFI, and I'm not supporting this team again until I see us run out with English, Sweet AND at least one of Martin/Cordy/Schache.

If you look at teams in the 60s and 70s - 3 rucks. Our early-mid 70s teams actually often had Dempsey as #1 ruck, Round, and Welsh and Salmon who could also ruck. Also had Greenwood in that era, Schultz, Rippon, Marsh, Baker. When Round left, we recruited Hampshire.

1991 we ran out in one game with Wynd, Charles and Cousins. We lost easily to Saints, and Paul Harding had more hit outs than out three combined, but that's beside the point. We played THREE ruckmen.

In 2004-05, we had Darcy, Street, Minson and Bandy tearing it up, or at least making me tear up!

Hafey's Tigers - Balme, McKellar and Roberts in 72 GF, Green, Balme, Roberts, McKellar in 73 GF, Balme, Green, Roberts in 74 GF.

3 rucks is the answer. EJ knew it, Bob Rose knew it, Wheeler knew it, Rohde knew it, Hafey lived it. Pay attention Beverage, you nincompoop.


Edit: just a heads up that anyone who replies to this post to bag Cousins, Bandy, Street, Rippon, Marsh or Baker is on my "Francis/Psycho" list.

 

[Mahama]

The ruck combo question is an interesting one, especially with the door being opened for Sweet with English's injury/illness. I feel like if Sweet is going to keep his spot long term this season, he'll need to achieve at least these 3 things:

1. Apply defensive pressure on the ground to stifle opposition clearances. Ben Hudson
   Ben Hudson

   Age

   43

   Ht

   199cm

   Wt

   106kg

   Pos.

   Ruck

   Career

   Season

   Last 5

   D

   13.2

   3star

   K

   4.3

   2star

   HB

   9.0

   5star

   CL

   4.1

   5star

   HO

   17.3

   5star

   No current season stats available

   D

   6.4

   2star

   K

   2.6

   1star

   HB

   3.8

   3star

   HO

   9.8

   5star

   / Will Minson
   Will Minson

   Age

   37

   Ht

   199cm

   Wt

   106kg

   Pos.

   Ruck

   Career

   Season

   Last 5

   D

   11.5

   3star

   K

   6.1

   2star

   HB

   5.3

   4star

   CL

   3.5

   5star

   HO

   21.7

   5star

   No current season stats available

   D

   8.8

   3star

   K

   5.2

   2star

   HB

   3.6

   3star

   HO

   14.4

   5star

   style, throwing his weight around and hurting midfielders. He's laid 9 tackles in his first 2 games, which is good enough for first in the AFL among rucks. Tick so far.
2. Bring the ball to ground in pack contests. I say bring it to ground rather than mark, because not everyone can have a Tim English level contested mark. I've noticed him concede maybe 2 marks so far, but he's also averaging 3.5 spoils (good for third among rucks). Tick so far.
3. Provide average to good ruck work. Already been discussed plenty. Tick so far.

Of course even if he does all that, if English starts struggling in a forward/ruck role, you feel like we have more to gain by putting English back as first ruck and using Cordy/Buku/eventually Bruce as second ruck. I assume - and hope - that Sweet playing as second ruck isn't even considered.

 

[doggies ftw]

Here is where every team is ranked for hitouts, hitouts to advantage, clearances, centre clearances, ball up clearances, and throw-in clearances (R1-R10)...

View attachment 1409921

Now here is the same since Sweet came in (R9-R10)...

View attachment 1409922

46 players have contested 100+ ruck contests this season and this is how they have faired (ruck contests, hitouts, hitouts to advantage, hitouts sharked)...

View attachment 1409923

As for the centre...

English has attended 128 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 65 times (51%), losing it 52 times (41%) and getting a secondary stoppage 10 times (8%)

Martin has attended 60 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 27 times (45%), losing it 22 times (37%) and getting a secondary stoppage 11 times (18%)

Sweet has attended 43 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 24 times (56%), losing it 12 times (28%) and getting a secondary stoppage 7 times (16%)

Cordy has attended 39 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 18 times (46%), losing it 17 times (44%) and getting a secondary stoppage 4 times (10%)

Hannan has attended 1 centre bounce which became a secondary stoppage.

Now as for the stats I posted in the review of the Gold Coast match...

Sweet vs. Witts (76 contests)
Hitouts: 24 / 38
To Advantage: 8 / 13
Clearances: 32 / 20
Score: 6.3 (39) / 3.3 (21)

Sweet vs. Chol (3 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 0
To Advantage: 2 / 0
Clearances: 2 / 1
Score: 0.0 (0) / 0.0 (0)

Cordy vs. Witts (19 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 13
To Advantage: 1 /6
Clearances: 7 / 8
Score: 1.0 (6) / 2.2 (14)

Cordy vs. Chol (6 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 2
To Advantage: 1 / 1
Clearances: 2 / 3
Score: 1.0 (6) / 1.0 (6)

I've seen a few regarding the scores, these are the scores sourced from a contest between the respective rucks.

You’re an absolute legend mate, appreciate what you bring to the board!

Very small sample size for Sweet and of course they were in two good wins too we’ll see how it unfolds over the next few weeks but I think those stats back up the eye test and what a lot of people here are saying.

So we have Timmy who is pretty much worst out of all first rucks for his actual ruck craft, he’s very all or nothing as in we rarely force secondary stoppages off him, he has a higher percent of hitouts sharked and we pretty much either win or lose the clearance with him. Ie not very good defensively in the ruck and follow up at ground level not great

Then Sweet who whilst still very very young and growing into the role, seems to be better with his ruck craft, we have a much higher secondary stoppage rate (ie ruckman aren’t just doing as they please with him he’s making things difficult) and a muchhhh better losing clearance rate, because his follow up at ground level is super strong (evidenced by most tackles for a ruckman last two weeks) plus our midfield is just overall performing better with him in there.

So again very very small sample size, but we perform better with Sweet in the ruck than English - stats back up eye test on this.

But then obviously English is just about unmatched when it comes to his ability around the ground, contested marking, disposal numbers ball use, ability to hit the scoreboard etc all elite.

We also just happen to desperately need another marking target inside 50 alongside Naughty.

Is it that crazy to suggest that we utilise the better ruckman in the ruck, and utilise the absolute weapon of a utility in that role? The ruck position improves, our midfield improves, our forward line improves, our marking around the ground improves?

English is an upgrade on Cordy, Sweet is an upgrade on English (in that very specific part of the game) everyone wins? What am I missing here, why is this even being debated lmao

 

[Mr. Walker]

How many pages is that on the rucks ? I only came on here to find out who was the sub.

 

[dergert]

So what do we think about Sweet and English? Starsky and Hutch?

 

[footscray1973]

So what do we think about Sweet and English? Starsky and Hutch?

Who is Huggy Bear?!

 

[Northernsoul74]

Who is Huggy Bear?!

Let’s not go there.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Here is where every team is ranked for hitouts, hitouts to advantage, clearances, centre clearances, ball up clearances, and throw-in clearances (R1-R10)...

View attachment 1409921

Now here is the same since Sweet came in (R9-R10)...

View attachment 1409922

46 players have contested 100+ ruck contests this season and this is how they have faired (ruck contests, hitouts, hitouts to advantage, hitouts sharked)...

View attachment 1409923

As for the centre...

English has attended 128 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 65 times (51%), losing it 52 times (41%) and getting a secondary stoppage 10 times (8%)

Martin has attended 60 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 27 times (45%), losing it 22 times (37%) and getting a secondary stoppage 11 times (18%)

Sweet has attended 43 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 24 times (56%), losing it 12 times (28%) and getting a secondary stoppage 7 times (16%)

Cordy has attended 39 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 18 times (46%), losing it 17 times (44%) and getting a secondary stoppage 4 times (10%)

Hannan has attended 1 centre bounce which became a secondary stoppage.

Now as for the stats I posted in the review of the Gold Coast match...

Sweet vs. Witts (76 contests)
Hitouts: 24 / 38
To Advantage: 8 / 13
Clearances: 32 / 20
Score: 6.3 (39) / 3.3 (21)

Sweet vs. Chol (3 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 0
To Advantage: 2 / 0
Clearances: 2 / 1
Score: 0.0 (0) / 0.0 (0)

Cordy vs. Witts (19 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 13
To Advantage: 1 /6
Clearances: 7 / 8
Score: 1.0 (6) / 2.2 (14)

Cordy vs. Chol (6 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 2
To Advantage: 1 / 1
Clearances: 2 / 3
Score: 1.0 (6) / 1.0 (6)

I've seen a few regarding the scores, these are the scores sourced from a contest between the respective rucks.

Thanks OG, appreciate the effort.

I thought these stats would be random, but not to this degree.

There’s some consistency amongst some teams. Brisbane through almost all categories and a few of the bottom 8 teams have generally poor performing rucks and midfields at stoppages.

Beside that, there’s almost no consistency suggesting any sort of correlation between an effective ruck and effective midfield at stoppages. Going on the clearance (first disposal) figures. So many variations involved with midfield influence at the three different stoppage points.

Melbourne an interesting one. Has mid table ruck effectiveness with a drop off for first disposal. This is with the best ruck combo in the league and the best midfield in the league.

There’s a group of 8-10 team across all games that have a fair discrepancy between hit adv and first disposal. That’s going either way. With a spread across ladder positions also.

It goes a long way in explaining our coaches attitude on the influence rucks have on a game. And going on the data as a whole, there’s no real evidence to suggest having a “genuine ruck” playing as the first or second ruck role being pivotal to a teams midfield success.

Our team being the best example. Which is pretty ironic

I just hope the ruckman fanatics take the time to go through the data and acknowledge it as it’s quiet obvious theres been a lot of wasted energy spent on this discussion by a few of them.

 

[footscray1973]

Let’s not go there.

I wasn't suggesting any racial tokenism, Huggy was a cool character, and that coat! Maybe Toby Mc, or Baz?

 

[Charlie Bucket]

I think short term there are only 2 options CB, I can't see the club risking Bruce in the short term (and he's still a month away at least to play seniors). They're trying Shack in the twos but he got destroyed against a kid on the weekend, so unless Martin discovers the fountain of youth or Buku surprises (looked like he could provide a second option however they haven't tried him in the seniors) I think the discussion the match commitee are having is Sweet or Cordy and it looks like they've gone with Sweet if only for this week.Time will tell, I for one am glad we're trying it

No doubt this week it’s Sweet vs Cordy. And it’s no contest after last weeks game.

That’s not what’s happening as a whole across the season and moving forward from this week though. They’d be constantly monitoring what could play out in the ruck department and who could play what role to benefit the team.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Hence my second line in that post

Although the above does not paint the whole picture it certainly mounts a case to keep playing him.

IMO we are better off with English/Sweet or English/Martin in the side.

If we keep winning we wont have anything to worry about so GO DOGS

Our best combination over the last 18 mths by far was the early season Martin/English set up from last year.

Imagine if Martin was 5 years younger and English was locked in to that Fwd/Ruck role. We’d be balls deep in it (injuries permitting) and we wouldn’t even be discussing lol.