Analysis Changes vs Weagles Round 11

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doggies ftw

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Sep 22, 2008
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Thanks OG, appreciate the effort.

I thought these stats would be random, but not to this degree.

There’s some consistency amongst some teams. Brisbane through almost all categories and a few of the bottom 8 teams have generally poor performing rucks and midfields at stoppages.

Beside that, there’s almost no consistency suggesting any sort of correlation between an effective ruck and effective midfield at stoppages. Going on the clearance (first disposal) figures. So many variations involved with midfield influence at the three different stoppage points.

Melbourne an interesting one. Has mid table ruck effectiveness with a drop off for first disposal. This is with the best ruck combo in the league and the best midfield in the league.

There’s a group of 8-10 team across all games that have a fair discrepancy between hit adv and first disposal. That’s going either way. With a spread across ladder positions also.

It goes a long way in explaining our coaches attitude on the influence rucks have on a game. And going on the data as a whole, there’s no real evidence to suggest having a “genuine ruck” playing as the first or second ruck role being pivotal to a teams midfield success.

Our team being the best example. Which is pretty ironic 😂

I just hope the ruckman fanatics take the time to go through the data and acknowledge it as it’s quiet obvious theres been a lot of wasted energy spent on this discussion by a few of them.
The only data that is relevant for us is our team, every team has a different style of play, some don’t focus on clearance dominance but prefer to play turnover footy, or have strong rucks but weak midfield etc so doesn’t really relate to us

We play a midfield heavy game where we rely on midfield dominance, so the only data that is relevant is our stats with 2 rucks and our stats with 1 ruck - obviously 2 games for Sweet is not enough of a sample size to make a conclusion off but if the next few go the same way then the results are quite clear imo - and that’s not even taking into account the huge advantage we get of English > Cordy in the 2nd ruck utility role
 

Foxman98

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You’re an absolute legend mate, appreciate what you bring to the board!

Very small sample size for Sweet and of course they were in two good wins too we’ll see how it unfolds over the next few weeks but I think those stats back up the eye test and what a lot of people here are saying.

So we have Timmy who is pretty much worst out of all first rucks for his actual ruck craft, he’s very all or nothing as in we rarely force secondary stoppages off him, he has a higher percent of hitouts sharked and we pretty much either win or lose the clearance with him. Ie not very good defensively in the ruck and follow up at ground level not great

Then Sweet who whilst still very very young and growing into the role, seems to be better with his ruck craft, we have a much higher secondary stoppage rate (ie ruckman aren’t just doing as they please with him he’s making things difficult) and a muchhhh better losing clearance rate, because his follow up at ground level is super strong (evidenced by most tackles for a ruckman last two weeks) plus our midfield is just overall performing better with him in there.

So again very very small sample size, but we perform better with Sweet in the ruck than English - stats back up eye test on this.

But then obviously English is just about unmatched when it comes to his ability around the ground, contested marking, disposal numbers ball use, ability to hit the scoreboard etc all elite.

We also just happen to desperately need another marking target inside 50 alongside Naughty.

Is it that crazy to suggest that we utilise the better ruckman in the ruck, and utilise the absolute weapon of a utility in that role? The ruck position improves, our midfield improves, our forward line improves, our marking around the ground improves?

English is an upgrade on Cordy, Sweet is an upgrade on English (in that very specific part of the game) everyone wins? What am I missing here, why is this even being debated lmao
How did you come to that conclusion? We are 2nd in the comp for clearances and Sweey has played 2 games. Melbourne are middle of the road and have the best ruck duo in the comp. All it’s showing is ruck work is not that important and their impact with marks and disposals around the ground is more important as it has more impact on the game
 

Foxman98

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The only data that is relevant for us is our team, every team has a different style of play, some don’t focus on clearance dominance but prefer to play turnover footy etc

We play a midfield heavy game where we rely on midfield dominance, so the only data that is relevant is our stats with 2 rucks and our stats with 1 ruck - obviously 2 games for Sweet is not enough of a sample size to make a conclusion off but if the next few go the same way then the results are quite clear imo
We are 2nd in the comp yet haven’t played 2 rucks once how do you work that out?
 

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doggies ftw

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 22, 2008
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Our best combination over the last 18 mths by far was the early season Martin/English set up from last year.

Imagine if Martin was 5 years younger and English was locked in to that Fwd/Ruck role. We’d be balls deep in it (injuries permitting) and we wouldn’t even be discussing lol.
We both agree on this - but that’s why it’s frustrating we didn’t do anything about it at trade time over the past few years cos as you said we would be balls deep in it and we wouldn’t need to discuss Sweet
 

brmi

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Aug 16, 2009
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Never forget the Knee of Death. Or the first goal kicked in the GF. Not to be dismissed lightly. A Bullgod can’t be questioned. In fact I’m not so sure he shouldn’t be knighted.

View attachment 1409867
A small yet very significant piece of play in our history that should live on forever. He's been known as 'knees' Cordy by my mates and I since this moment.

Love you knees.
 

Foxman98

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We both agree on this - but that’s why it’s frustrating we didn’t do anything about it at trade time over the past few years cos as you said we would be balls deep in it and we wouldn’t need to discuss Sweet
The blokes we missed out on aren’t doing anything either
 

doggies ftw

Brownlow Medallist
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How did you come to that conclusion? We are 2nd in the comp for clearances and Sweey has played 2 games. Melbourne are middle of the road and have the best ruck duo in the comp. All it’s showing is ruck work is not that important and their impact with marks and disposals around the ground is more important as it has more impact on the game
I didn’t look at any other clubs stats I couldn’t give a s**t, I don’t claim to know or care about what other teams do - I know one thing though - we prioritise midfield performance we prioritise clearance dominance - off albeit small sample size we’re good with English in there and even better with Sweet. We then get to swap Cordy for English, you comprehend this yet?
 

Foxman98

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I didn’t look at any other clubs stats I couldn’t give a s**t, I don’t claim to know or care about what other teams do - I know one thing though - we prioritise midfield performance we prioritise clearance dominance - off albeit small sample size we’re good with English in there and even better with Sweet. We then get to swap Cordy for English, you comprehend this yet?
We are talking 15% at worst game time with English. The sample size with Sweet is against 2 bottom half midfields so not much to go on. This week Sweet is the option as English needs to be managed back but long term if he’s not providing anything up forward he’s a waste of space as it’ll be a small time chopping out English
 

Munnez

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Whilst I don't think Cordy is good he was a premiership forward and played in a Grand Finalist's backline must be hard for a truly bad player to do this
Don't think that Cordy is a bad player but he is not cut out to be a ruck. We lose so much momentum when he tries, give him his due he gives it a red hot crack.
When we are so mid heavy we can't afford to have oppo rucks putting it on a platter to run out the front of the contest and torch ususp
 

Foxman98

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Don't think that Cordy is a bad player but he is not cut out to be a ruck. We lose so much momentum when he tries, give him his due he gives it a red hot crack.
When we are so mid heavy we can't afford to have oppo rucks putting it on a platter to run out the front of the contest and torch ususp
But he’s not in there for much of the game and we just saw the stats it’s not that big of a difference between him and Sweet and Sweet is in there with the better Mids most of the time
 

doggies ftw

Brownlow Medallist
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But he’s not in there for much of the game and we just saw the stats it’s not that big of a difference between him and Sweet and Sweet is in there with the better Mids most of the time
Quote -

“Didn't get a secondary stoppage last week either. Here are the numbers for both R9/10...

Sweet attended 43 centre bounces with us winning 24 clearances (56%), losing 12 and 7going to a secondary stoppage

Cordy attended 12 centre bounces with us winning 4 clearances (33%), losing 8 and 0going to a secondary stoppage.”

How is that not a big difference? Sweet in we lost a total of 12 from 43, Cordy in we lost a total of 8 from 12. Against the same bottom half midfields as you put it, proof that our worse midfielders are in whilst Cordys in pls. Why on earth would that be the case? Do the coaches on the bench go alright s**t give Sweet Bont Macrae and Baz a rest at the same time?! Cos that’s how footy works

I really don’t even care anymore but damn you come up with some wildly dumb s**t my man
 

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Munnez

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But he’s not in there for much of the game and we just saw the stats it’s not that big of a difference between him and Sweet and Sweet is in there with the better Mids most of the time
I take your point but how many goals did the Suns get from clearances when Cordy attended the CB. I don't have the stat's but personally feel it would be a high % that is the stat that really matters
 

Munnez

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No doubt this week it’s Sweet vs Cordy. And it’s no contest after last weeks game.

That’s not what’s happening as a whole across the season and moving forward from this week though. They’d be constantly monitoring what could play out in the ruck department and who could play what role to benefit the team.
Well I guess the MC has spoken as Cordy has been omitted and Sweet is still in.
Get some popcorn 🍿 and see how it plays out
 

Foxman98

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Quote -

“Didn't get a secondary stoppage last week either. Here are the numbers for both R9/10...

Sweet attended 43 centre bounces with us winning 24 clearances (56%), losing 12 and 7going to a secondary stoppage

Cordy attended 12 centre bounces with us winning 4 clearances (33%), losing 8 and 0going to a secondary stoppage.”

How is that not a big difference? Sweet in we lost a total of 12 from 43, Cordy in we lost a total of 8 from 12. Against the same bottom half midfields as you put it, proof that our worse midfielders are in whilst Cordys in pls. Why on earth would that be the case? Do the coaches on the bench go alright s**t give Sweet Bont Macrae and Baz a rest at the same time?! Cos that’s how footy works

I really don’t even care anymore but damn you come up with some wildly dumb s**t my man
Why are you not using Cordy for the full year where it was closer?
 

Foxman98

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Well I guess the MC has spoken as Cordy has been omitted and Sweet is still in.
Get some popcorn 🍿 and see how it plays out
It’ll play out fine West Coast are garbage the week after is the real test unless Sweet does nothing this week
 

Foxman98

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Was it? What are the stats for clearances lost across the season with Cordy in, havent seen them personally
Cordys win is 10% behind Sweet yet his ruck time is less then 20% that’s the point short term whilst English gets back to health I have no issue with Sweet as he is playing more time on ball but when English gets back to full fitness you’re wasting your time with Sweet as we can all admit he offers nothing but decent tap stats
 

perro_loco

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Suggest you watch the game from Saturday again McComb had 7 score involvements and was very clean in possession
McComb is not a star player and never will be. But what I admire about him, is that in each of his games he has improved and even scored goals. He has been selected again because he has played according to instructions. Yes, atm he plays because of injuries, but if he still continues to improve he may not lose his spot. Keep it up and prove us all wrong lad!!!
 

perro_loco

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How is it not a fact? You have taken away their own clearances, score involvements, disposals and marks?

English is a better ruckman then Sweet by a long way. English strength is his ability to run his opponents into the ground with his high time in ruck meaning we only need someone for 10% of the time. Sweet is nowhere near better then English around the ground so saying that is laughable. Sweet has no forward craft and doesn't get the pill making him a liability.

How hard is it for you ton understand that English is our best ruck by a long way and at worst will shoulder 80% of the load meaning we only need a 20% chop out.

English #1 ruckman Sweet distant #2 that is useless besides tap work which isn't that big of a deal
I would like to summarise this discussion thus: having Sweet and English improves our team quite a bit. English can rest forward as he will need to get match fitness and will make our forward line really strong.
 

perro_loco

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Here is where every team is ranked for hitouts, hitouts to advantage, clearances, centre clearances, ball up clearances, and throw-in clearances (R1-R10)...

View attachment 1409921

Now here is the same since Sweet came in (R9-R10)...

View attachment 1409922

46 players have contested 100+ ruck contests this season and this is how they have faired (ruck contests, hitouts, hitouts to advantage, hitouts sharked)...

View attachment 1409923

As for the centre...

English has attended 128 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 65 times (51%), losing it 52 times (41%) and getting a secondary stoppage 10 times (8%)

Martin has attended 60 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 27 times (45%), losing it 22 times (37%) and getting a secondary stoppage 11 times (18%)

Sweet has attended 43 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 24 times (56%), losing it 12 times (28%) and getting a secondary stoppage 7 times (16%)

Cordy has attended 39 centre bounces with the team winning the clearance 18 times (46%), losing it 17 times (44%) and getting a secondary stoppage 4 times (10%)

Hannan has attended 1 centre bounce which became a secondary stoppage.

Now as for the stats I posted in the review of the Gold Coast match...

Sweet vs. Witts (76 contests)
Hitouts: 24 / 38
To Advantage: 8 / 13
Clearances: 32 / 20
Score: 6.3 (39) / 3.3 (21)

Sweet vs. Chol (3 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 0
To Advantage: 2 / 0
Clearances: 2 / 1
Score: 0.0 (0) / 0.0 (0)

Cordy vs. Witts (19 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 13
To Advantage: 1 /6
Clearances: 7 / 8
Score: 1.0 (6) / 2.2 (14)

Cordy vs. Chol (6 contests)
Hitouts: 3 / 2
To Advantage: 1 / 1
Clearances: 2 / 3
Score: 1.0 (6) / 1.0 (6)

I've seen a few regarding the scores, these are the scores sourced from a contest between the respective rucks.
Brilliant work and thank you for taking the time, Really appreciated by all of us here!!!
 

captainjasper

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In all this circus of hit out stats has anyone actually mentioned that 1 hit out to advantage ≠ another hit out to advantage. Off the top of my head on Saturday Sweet hit the ball into dangerous space for Bailey Smith to run onto, and then palmed one down for Jacko to run straight through for a clean centre clearance. Can't remember seeing too many taps from Tim be that clean
 

BulldogMuscle

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We are talking 15% at worst game time with English. The sample size with Sweet is against 2 bottom half midfields so not much to go on. This week Sweet is the option as English needs to be managed back but long term if he’s not providing anything up forward he’s a waste of space as it’ll be a small time chopping out English
with your utter dislike of Sweet no matter what argument is made I’m assuming you also made this post?

CF9B4936-CF35-44EB-858A-E9BFE02EBE29.jpeg
 

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