eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Collingwood: Had an extremely productive game against Adelaide, beating last year's Grand Finalists by a whopping 8 goals in a complete upset. Steele Sidebottom was excellent with 43 touches and 12 clearances whilst ruckman Brodie Grundy collected 33 touches with his 40 hit outs. Young gun Jaidyn Stephenson kicked 5 goals for the Pies.
Essendon: Responded to their critics in the best fashion possible, comfortably beating the previously undefeated Port Adelaide by 4 goals. Cale Hooker's move to defence allowed Michael Hurley to have more freedom and collect 29 disposals, 15 coming from marks, whilst Jake "The Package" Stringer had his best outing in red and black, kicking 4 goals.
Head to Head (last 5)
Collingwood 2-3 Essendon
Form Guide
Collingwood: 2W 2L
Essendon: 1W 2L
Sportsbet odds
Collingwood: $1.69
Essendon: $2.18
Line: 5.5 ($1.92)
Possible sides
Collingwood vs Essendon
B: Hooker - Hartley - Baguley
F: Fasolo - Stephenson - Crocker
HB: Goddard - Hurley - Saad
HF: De Goey - Reid - Hoskin-Elliott
C: Parish - D Smith - Z Merrett
C: Phillips - Pendlebury - Sidebottom
HF: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Daniher - Fantasia
HB: Crisp - Scharenberg - Howe
F: Stewart - Stringer - Green
B: Maynard - Dunn - Murray
R: Bellchambers - Zaharakis - Heppell
R: Grundy - Treloar - Thomas
I: McGrath - Myers - Guelfi - Langford
I: Langdon - Brown - Cox - Wells
Collingwood defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon's forward line has been pretty effective so far this season, with a goals per inside 50 efficiency rating of 27%. Collingwood's defence has been much improved this season, only conceding a goal 23% of the time it enters their defensive 50, compared to 26% last season. Collingwood's issue will be the height of James Stewart and Joe Daniher, the pair of them 198 cm and 200 cm respectively whilst the Pies have nobody over the height of 192 cm in defence. Orazio Fantasia will be licking his lips in his 50th game at the prospect of facing Brayden Maynard again, especially after kicking 9 goals over 2 games against him last season, whilst Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti will likely get a favourable match up with Jack Crisp across half back, the former's speed will be tough for Crisp to handle.
Midfield/rucks battle
Essendon's pressure around the middle has been poor so far this season and it's shown in the numbers, the Dons being 15th for clearance differential, but a solid 7th for their contested possession differential. Collingwood are currently 2nd and 3rd in those statistics respectively, which shows where they're at in the midfield right now. Essendon must break even with the pies in this area, if they do they're half way to winning. Collingwood have 5 fit players averaging 3 or more clearances a game, and whilst Essendon have 7, only one of them averages 4 or more whereas Collingwood only has one averaging less than that. If Essendon can break even in this regard their quality of outside run through Zach Merrett, David Zaharakis and Darcy Parish should be able to get on top of Collingwood who's main runners are a dubious Daniel Wells and Tom Phillips. In terms of the ruck, Brodie Grundy would be favoured over Tom Bellchambers but the last time the two met Bellchambers had the better of the Pies ruck, and will need to do so again if Essendon are to win.
Collingwood forward line vs Essendon defence
Essendon's defence has been under a lot of pressure this season, and has been a little poorer than last season, conceding a goal 25% of the time it enters defensive 50. Collingwood's forward line hasn't been fantastic so far, kicking a goal 24% of the time it enters their forward 50. Collingwood's most dangerous players so far have been Josh Thomas, who has kicked 9 goals, and Will Hoskin-Elliott with 7, two small/medium forwards. They're tough match-ups for the Bombers without anybody in that tweener size that are quick enough to take them, but expect Michael Hartley to take Ben Reid, Cale Hooker to take Mason Cox and Michael Hurley to take Jaidyn Stephenson, but don't be surprised if Paddy Ambrose gets a call up to play on one of Hoskin-Elliott or Thomas either.
X-Factor Player
Adam Saad has been a solid pick up for the Dons so far this year, but he'll never have experienced anything like ANZAC Day after playing for Gold Coast for 3 years so expect him to thrive on the atmosphere
Key stat
Collingwood: Forward Efficiency. Collingwood will most likely win the midfield battle so they must take advantage of that fact and put it on the scoreboard.
Essendon: Clearances. Collingwood's midfield is the biggest strength, if Essendon can shut it down they'll be half way to winning.
Tip
It's always hard to tip an ANZAC Day winner, but I still feel that Essendon are a stronger side than Collingwood despite their recent poor form, Essendon by 33, Heppell ANZAC Medal
Collingwood: Had an extremely productive game against Adelaide, beating last year's Grand Finalists by a whopping 8 goals in a complete upset. Steele Sidebottom was excellent with 43 touches and 12 clearances whilst ruckman Brodie Grundy collected 33 touches with his 40 hit outs. Young gun Jaidyn Stephenson kicked 5 goals for the Pies.
Essendon: Responded to their critics in the best fashion possible, comfortably beating the previously undefeated Port Adelaide by 4 goals. Cale Hooker's move to defence allowed Michael Hurley to have more freedom and collect 29 disposals, 15 coming from marks, whilst Jake "The Package" Stringer had his best outing in red and black, kicking 4 goals.
Head to Head (last 5)
Collingwood 2-3 Essendon
Form Guide
Collingwood: 2W 2L
Essendon: 1W 2L
Sportsbet odds
Collingwood: $1.69
Essendon: $2.18
Line: 5.5 ($1.92)
Possible sides
Collingwood vs Essendon
B: Hooker - Hartley - Baguley
F: Fasolo - Stephenson - Crocker
HB: Goddard - Hurley - Saad
HF: De Goey - Reid - Hoskin-Elliott
C: Parish - D Smith - Z Merrett
C: Phillips - Pendlebury - Sidebottom
HF: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Daniher - Fantasia
HB: Crisp - Scharenberg - Howe
F: Stewart - Stringer - Green
B: Maynard - Dunn - Murray
R: Bellchambers - Zaharakis - Heppell
R: Grundy - Treloar - Thomas
I: McGrath - Myers - Guelfi - Langford
I: Langdon - Brown - Cox - Wells
Collingwood defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon's forward line has been pretty effective so far this season, with a goals per inside 50 efficiency rating of 27%. Collingwood's defence has been much improved this season, only conceding a goal 23% of the time it enters their defensive 50, compared to 26% last season. Collingwood's issue will be the height of James Stewart and Joe Daniher, the pair of them 198 cm and 200 cm respectively whilst the Pies have nobody over the height of 192 cm in defence. Orazio Fantasia will be licking his lips in his 50th game at the prospect of facing Brayden Maynard again, especially after kicking 9 goals over 2 games against him last season, whilst Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti will likely get a favourable match up with Jack Crisp across half back, the former's speed will be tough for Crisp to handle.
Midfield/rucks battle
Essendon's pressure around the middle has been poor so far this season and it's shown in the numbers, the Dons being 15th for clearance differential, but a solid 7th for their contested possession differential. Collingwood are currently 2nd and 3rd in those statistics respectively, which shows where they're at in the midfield right now. Essendon must break even with the pies in this area, if they do they're half way to winning. Collingwood have 5 fit players averaging 3 or more clearances a game, and whilst Essendon have 7, only one of them averages 4 or more whereas Collingwood only has one averaging less than that. If Essendon can break even in this regard their quality of outside run through Zach Merrett, David Zaharakis and Darcy Parish should be able to get on top of Collingwood who's main runners are a dubious Daniel Wells and Tom Phillips. In terms of the ruck, Brodie Grundy would be favoured over Tom Bellchambers but the last time the two met Bellchambers had the better of the Pies ruck, and will need to do so again if Essendon are to win.
Collingwood forward line vs Essendon defence
Essendon's defence has been under a lot of pressure this season, and has been a little poorer than last season, conceding a goal 25% of the time it enters defensive 50. Collingwood's forward line hasn't been fantastic so far, kicking a goal 24% of the time it enters their forward 50. Collingwood's most dangerous players so far have been Josh Thomas, who has kicked 9 goals, and Will Hoskin-Elliott with 7, two small/medium forwards. They're tough match-ups for the Bombers without anybody in that tweener size that are quick enough to take them, but expect Michael Hartley to take Ben Reid, Cale Hooker to take Mason Cox and Michael Hurley to take Jaidyn Stephenson, but don't be surprised if Paddy Ambrose gets a call up to play on one of Hoskin-Elliott or Thomas either.
X-Factor Player
Adam Saad has been a solid pick up for the Dons so far this year, but he'll never have experienced anything like ANZAC Day after playing for Gold Coast for 3 years so expect him to thrive on the atmosphere
Key stat
Collingwood: Forward Efficiency. Collingwood will most likely win the midfield battle so they must take advantage of that fact and put it on the scoreboard.
Essendon: Clearances. Collingwood's midfield is the biggest strength, if Essendon can shut it down they'll be half way to winning.
Tip
It's always hard to tip an ANZAC Day winner, but I still feel that Essendon are a stronger side than Collingwood despite their recent poor form, Essendon by 33, Heppell ANZAC Medal
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