Review Dogs defeat Giants 86-71

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Charlie Bucket said:
Never took him for a Double Cruiser man.
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Some miscellaneous thoughts from last night's game:
  • The win. Some are disappointed with the relatively small margin in the end. I was pretty happy with it. GWS are unlikely to finish in the eight but they are no pushovers. They were pretty clean with the ball and have good ball movers on the outside. They just didn't have the star power that we had in Bont, English and Naughton (when it counted). Those three got us over the line. GWS hit the post a couple of times in the 3rdQ and could easily have finished a lot closer. As OG posted in his stats segment, the expected margin from opportunities created was only 1 point our way. I went along thinking it was a 50/50 game so I was happy, especially as it was GWS we beat, and it was another win on the road.
  • Run ons. Yes they got a run of 4 goals early in the fourth but it wasn't the same as Melbourne repeatedly waltzing the ball out of the CBs straight after their previous goal. They were mostly goals from their d50 after we'd been pressing in attack. It's a problem, but it's a different problem and not quite as bad as a string of goals all coming from easy centre clearances. And also we were able to arrest the run on, even if there was "fear in the eyes" of our mentally scarred players. That's got to be a small positive.
  • The umpiring. Right from the outset there seemed to be a determination not to pay any free kicks for contested ball unless it was something approaching homicide. Players were just pulled away from the contest without having had possession. No free. Tackled with plenty of prior opportunity. No free. Dropping the ball cold. No free. Then to infuriate us all they would just pick some tiny infringement and pay it, against the run of whistles (or non-whistles). It probably went both ways but of course it always feels like our side was the one that was dudded the most. Was this the latest Interpretation-of-the-Week that they never tell us about? GWS seemed to catch on earlier than we did and started to exploit it knowing they wouldn't get pinged. Naughton tapped into it in the final quarter throwing his weight around and not conceding a free. It's no wonder that newbies find the game hard to follow when the interpretations change from week to week.
  • Positioning. I lost count of the number of times that the kick down the line cleared the pack. We never seemed to have anybody behind but very often GWS had one. Or more than one. Did nobody on the coaching panel and none of the players out there spot this? Was it as obvious on TV? The reasons for it happening are largely irrelevant (possible to do with the weather? greasy ball? humidity?) The point is we should be able to make adjustments in-game if even ordinary fans like me can spot it from the bleachers.
  • The irrepressible Aaron Naughton. Everybody loves the Bont of course but this bloke is easily my second favourite Bulldog right now. He was quiet for much of the night because of the conditions and the double-/triple-teaming he had to cope with. One player would block or edge him under the ball while the other took an uncontested mark. What I love is his ticker. He never gives up trying and will find a way to make a contribution whether it's tackling, chasing, splitting packs, drawing defenders away from Lobb and Marra or whatever. So it was no surprise that when the game was there to be won - or lost - it was Naughton who chimed in with two brilliant wet weather marks to kick our only two goals of the final quarter. That he was the leading goalkicker on the ground (along with Tom Green) on a night where he got few opportunities just underlines how dangerous he is. And for those who lament his kicking for goal, he has now kicked 18.11 for the season, pretty much on or above average accuracy for the top 20 goalkickers in the league. 5 tackles for the night is also pretty handy for a KPF.
  • The emerging Arty Jones. I've said most of what I wanted to say earlier. It's going to be a pleasure watching his career unfold. Kudos to the scouts who found him and to Milesi for the selection. Credit to Arty as well for putting his head down and taking his game to a new level after his largely uninspiring first year on the list.
  • The highs and lows of Bailey Dale. Rory Lobb kicked a fine goal from the arc in the 2nd qtr but the play that created it was the scintillating 40m drilled pass onto his chest by Bailey Dale. It was exciting to watch such exquisite delivery. Four minutes later I was very disappointed in his effort on the far wing (in front of us) when the ball was there to be won or killed in a 1-on-1. It's too harsh to say he squibbed it because he made an effort. I just think it's not in his normal armoury but somehow he needed to put his body on the line. I'm pretty sure that if it was Liam Picken or even Ed Richards we'd have been looking at a throw-in, not watching it sail through the GWS goals a few seconds later.
  • The conundrum of Bailey Smith. Bailey had a good night on the stats sheet (32 disposals, 416 MG, etc) and did a lot of good things. However I couldn't give him votes. It seems to me his decision making is poor. I think this might explain some of his horrendous i50 delivery when he has time and space to do much better. On one occasion, possibly 1stQ, he had possession under pressure on the outer wing right in front of us but had a couple of metres on his opponent. There was nobody in front of him so he just put the ball into space (which at least is not a direct turnover). However they shut the foray down easily and rebounded. We were puzzled why he didn't just tuck the ball under his arm and put the afterburners on. He's got the wheels to do it. That could have split the retreating GWS defence wide open and create opportunities as we streamed forward. And as somebody posted in the GDT you'd gladly accept him getting pinged for HTB a few times if he was actually taking them on. Bont got 32 disposals last night too. Just compare the value of those two identical stats.
  • The irreplaceable Bontempelli. He is truly amazing. We are watching a rare talent at his career peak. I have little doubt our season would be more like 2-6 than 5-3 right now if he'd been out injured for those 8 games. When you see familiar players contesting a ball or a mark you have a sense beforehand which way it's likely to go. Bont is one of those players you know is going to come out with the pill or the better of the contest about 90% of the time. There's not many players you can say that about. I fear for the day he limps off injured.
  • The diminishing Jack Macrae. What's happened to this bloke? He was pretty solid last night - possibly one of his best games of the season - and a few even put him in their Ching votes. But right now he is just a shadow of the player he was 2-3 years ago, the one who racked up 30Ds a game for about 100 games in a row. I'm hoping there's some truth in the rumour that he is dealing with a rib injury of some sort. I'll be sad if this is the best we'll ever see of him from here on. He just doesn't seem to have the impact of past years. Is it his changed role? Or has he had his role changed because he is injured or in decline? He's only 28 and by rights he should be able to carry on for another 2-3 years at least. If he's genuinely on the way out our midfield woes are even worse than we've supposed. I've posted some stats below.
Jack Macrae career stats (source FootyWire):

1683462293494.png


Jack Macrae Ching Votes:

1683464283362.png
 
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Forgot to mention Tim English:
  • Great to see Timmy dominating the tap outs. That's not something we've been used to. He seemed to be able to direct them where he wanted most of the time although I see from OG's stats that he was much more successful against Himmelberg than Flynn. Understandable. As always he was excellent around the ground with strong marking and a few good plays, one of which resulted in Scott's goal. That game won't do his AA chances any harm at all.
 
Some Idiot said:
In fairness to Gardner, he hit the target with 10/12 disposals and had 3 score involvements which are both above average stats when compared to all of our key defenders.
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Stats are interesting things. They don't capture whether an ordinary pass required an extraordinary effort on the part of the receiver to complete it, just that it was completed.

They also don't record whether a player made a series of ill-judged and ineffective attempts to spoil which left them badly out of position and gifted golden opportunities for opponents to score precious goals in a low scoring match.
 
dogwatch said:
  • The diminishing Jack Macrae. What's happened to this bloke? He was pretty solid last night - possibly one of his best games of the season - and a few even put him in their Ching votes. But right now he is just a shadow of the player he was 2-3 years ago, the one who racked up 30Ds a game for about 100 games in a row. I'm hoping there's some truth in the rumour that he is dealing with a rib injury of some sort. I'll be sad if this is the best we'll ever see of him from here on. He just doesn't seem to have the impact of past years. Is it his changed role? Or has he had his role changed because he is injured or in decline? He's only 28 and by rights he should be able to carry on for another 2-3 years at least. If he's genuinely on the way out our midfield woes are even worse than we've supposed. I've posted some stats below.
Click to expand...
I think his role has changed because it had to. He is bereft of pace, burst and general. The 6 6 6 rule further exposed this where it's no longer possible to put an extra back as cover. His combination with others of moderate pace is no doubt a big part of the reason that teams have been able to waltz out of CBs in recent years. It also happened to coincide with Tim English's development phase and Gawn et als dominance where we were a less than 50/50 chance of being able to control the taps.

It seems that part of the solution is to effectively hide him on HFF at restarts and allow him to transition into a more central role from there. Unfortunately the lack of pace essentially has no remedy and he gets burnt on turnovers by faster players in general play. If we turn it over less then it's less of a problem and I suppose that's the ideal.

Timmy's improvement and emergence might be able to mitigate our clearance player's overall lack of pace moving forward and allow Macrae a more regular presence there but I think we're still left with the overall problem of a lack of pace with our most experienced clearance players at CBs and stoppages generally.

A few names have been put up as Libba's eventual replacement, West and Garcia amongst them. I wonder if it isn't in fact Macrae, even if just for a couple years.

Short answer, the days of Libba, Macrae and Bont as the first choice stoppage unit are behind us and unless Timmy becomes utterly dominant 🤞we'll see it less and less. At the moment, Macrae is the most expendable of the 3 and has to reinvent himself in the interim (or until Libba retires). It's not easy. He's been fantastic for us over the journey.
 
Also just remembered that passage of play in the 4th where big Timmy got clobbered across the arms by Angwin (?) for no free kick and then moments later Matt Flynn came flying in for the clearest 50m penalty you will ever see into Tim's back again for nothing. Pathetic.
 
Next Waiting said:
I think his role has changed because it had to. He is bereft of pace, burst and general. The 6 6 6 rule further exposed this where it's no longer possible to put an extra back as cover. His combination with others of moderate pace is no doubt a big part of the reason that teams have been able to waltz out of CBs in recent years. It also happened to coincide with Tim English's development phase and Gawn et als dominance where we were a less than 50/50 chance of being able to control the taps.

It seems that part of the solution is to effectively hide him on HFF at restarts and allow him to transition into a more central role from there. Unfortunately the lack of pace essentially has no remedy and he gets burnt on turnovers by faster players in general play. If we turn it over less then it's less of a problem and I suppose that's the ideal.

Timmy's improvement and emergence might be able to mitigate our clearance player's overall lack of pace moving forward and allow Macrae a more regular presence there but I think we're still left with the overall problem of a lack of pace with our most experienced clearance players at CBs and stoppages generally.

A few names have been put up as Libba's eventual replacement, West and Garcia amongst them. I wonder if it isn't in fact Macrae, even if just for a couple years.

Short answer, the days of Libba, Macrae and Bont as the first choice stoppage unit are behind us and unless Timmy becomes utterly dominant 🤞we'll see it less and less. At the moment, Macrae is the most expendable of the 3 and has to reinvent himself in the interim (or until Libba retires). It's not easy. He's been fantastic for us over the journey.
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I don't think this is remotely accurate at all. The 6-6-6 rule has been around since the beginning of 2019 and Jack has accomplished 3 AA's since then and been a part of dominant midfield groups throughout that period. His stats across the board are actually nearly identical to his last season with the exception of uncontested possessions (down to 16 from 20).

There's also a chance it has something to do with a slight change in game style. Our mids have always shared the ball around considerably in the midfield so there may be more of a directive to be more direct with the footy due to our taller options.
 
Next Waiting said:
I think his role has changed because it had to. He is bereft of pace, burst and general. The 6 6 6 rule further exposed this where it's no longer possible to put an extra back as cover. His combination with others of moderate pace is no doubt a big part of the reason that teams have been able to waltz out of CBs in recent years. It also happened to coincide with Tim English's development phase and Gawn et als dominance where we were a less than 50/50 chance of being able to control the taps.

It seems that part of the solution is to effectively hide him on HFF at restarts and allow him to transition into a more central role from there. Unfortunately the lack of pace essentially has no remedy and he gets burnt on turnovers by faster players in general play. If we turn it over less then it's less of a problem and I suppose that's the ideal.

Timmy's improvement and emergence might be able to mitigate our clearance player's overall lack of pace moving forward and allow Macrae a more regular presence there but I think we're still left with the overall problem of a lack of pace with our most experienced clearance players at CBs and stoppages generally.

A few names have been put up as Libba's eventual replacement, West and Garcia amongst them. I wonder if it isn't in fact Macrae, even if just for a couple years.

Short answer, the days of Libba, Macrae and Bont as the first choice stoppage unit are behind us and unless Timmy becomes utterly dominant 🤞we'll see it less and less. At the moment, Macrae is the most expendable of the 3 and has to reinvent himself in the interim (or until Libba retires). It's not easy. He's been fantastic for us over the journey.
Click to expand...
Spot on and this is the reason we need to draft the best two onballers in the current draft. Its were the game is won and lost most times. We really should be in transition this year. I'd actually start playing Ed Richards in the middle.
 
Golden_6 said:
I don't think this is remotely accurate at all. The 6-6-6 rule has been around since the beginning of 2019 and Jack has accomplished 3 AA's since then and been a part of dominant midfield groups throughout that period. His stats across the board are actually nearly identical to his last season with the exception of uncontested possessions (down to 16 from 20).

There's also a chance it has something to do with a slight change in game style. Our mids have always shared the ball around considerably in the midfield so there may be more of a directive to be more direct with the footy due to our taller options.
Click to expand...
I don't agree. I think that as the 6 6 6 was bedded in over the initial period it became obvious that to maximise it's benefits, quick mids at CBs was the way to go. 2019 first year, 2020 covid year with shorter games. By GF 2021 it was clear that our 3, especially Macrae, was unsustainable against the likes of Melbourne who had pace to burn and a dominant ruck. Now it's not just Melbourne.

I put absolutely no store in AA selections. It's all about the blend of complementary skills and attributes within a team or a set up. An overall lack of pace with a not yet dominant ruckman will not get us far. Macrae is the casualty. There's a way back but both Libba and English are central to it.
 
LondonBulldog said:
Spot on and this is the reason we need to draft the best two onballers in the current draft. Its were the game is won and lost most times. We really should be in transition this year. I'd actually start playing Ed Richards in the middle.
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I agree with the first 2 sentences, partially with the 3rd, not with the last.

My solution to the last is continued investment in Smith and possibly giving Williams some thought. Outside of that I don't see many options.

We're sort of in transition this year and we need Smith to work if we're to be any sort of chance of a shot at the stumps later in the year.

Beyond that, I 100% agree that we need to prioritise fast and quality on-ballers, whether we trade for them or draft them.
 

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Next Waiting said:
I think his role has changed because it had to. He is bereft of pace, burst and general. The 6 6 6 rule further exposed this where it's no longer possible to put an extra back as cover. His combination with others of moderate pace is no doubt a big part of the reason that teams have been able to waltz out of CBs in recent years. It also happened to coincide with Tim English's development phase and Gawn et als dominance where we were a less than 50/50 chance of being able to control the taps.

It seems that part of the solution is to effectively hide him on HFF at restarts and allow him to transition into a more central role from there. Unfortunately the lack of pace essentially has no remedy and he gets burnt on turnovers by faster players in general play. If we turn it over less then it's less of a problem and I suppose that's the ideal.

Timmy's improvement and emergence might be able to mitigate our clearance player's overall lack of pace moving forward and allow Macrae a more regular presence there but I think we're still left with the overall problem of a lack of pace with our most experienced clearance players at CBs and stoppages generally.

A few names have been put up as Libba's eventual replacement, West and Garcia amongst them. I wonder if it isn't in fact Macrae, even if just for a couple years.

Short answer, the days of Libba, Macrae and Bont as the first choice stoppage unit are behind us and unless Timmy becomes utterly dominant we'll see it less and less. At the moment, Macrae is the most expendable of the 3 and has to reinvent himself in the interim (or until Libba retires). It's not easy. He's been fantastic for us over the journey.
Click to expand...

Macrae’s lack of pace and acceleration has been exposed in finals. The Dees in particular were working through his man and Dunkley’s, as neither could keep up.

We really need to move Macrae to HHF and allow him to then join the midfield. Unfortunately that is also Daniel’s best position too and neither have much pace.

We won’t get much for either via trade but having both in the team is increasing a lack of leg speed issue. Our early picks this year need to be spent on bringing in inside pace and power; either in the draft or via trade.
 
Proffessor said:
No, Gardner's second half was definitely not better than his first.
He may have gotten into the play more but that doesn't mean it was better.

He also made more costly mistakes. His last quarter was a bit of nightmare for him unfortunately. He really needs to learn to play more conservatively as a defender, and that sometimes it is a much better option to not over commit to a contest and prepare to fight the next one.

How many times can one bloke make the same type of mistake over and over again and not adjust his approach?
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A few classic Gardner moments of him spoiling a contest only for it to be our man he spoiled or he didnt completely kill the ball leaving his man all by himself 10m off the play.
 
LittleG said:
Macrae’s lack of pace and acceleration has been exposed in finals. The Dees in particular were working through his man and Dunkley’s, as neither could keep up.

We really need to move Macrae to HHF and allow him to then join the midfield. Unfortunately that is also Daniel’s best position too and neither have much pace.

We won’t get much for either via trade but having both in the team is increasing a lack of leg speed issue. Our early picks this year need to be spent on bringing in inside pace and power; either in the draft or via trade.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't like to trade him to be fair.

I think he's now in the unfortunate position of bidding his time (in the 22 but on the periphery) until Libba retires or suffers an LTI and he takes his role or English becomes so dominant that his pace (or lack thereof) ceases to be the factor it has become. Any significant improvement or development in Bedendo or Cleary, or a miraculous injury free run from VDM, may even put him outside the 22.

That may not suit him and he may find the warmer climes of GC attractive. I think he'd be a really good fit for GC, not that I'd like to see it happen
 
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Next Waiting said:
I wouldn't like to trade him to be fair.

I think he's now in the unfortunate position of bidding his time (in the 22 but on the periphery) until Libba retires or suffers an LTI and he takes his role or English becomes so dominant that his pace (or lack thereof) ceases to be the factor it has become. Any significant improvement or development in Bedendo or Cleary, or a miraculous injury free run from VDM, may even put him outside the 22.

That may not suit him and he may find the warmer climes of GC attractive. I think he'd be a really good fit for GC, not that I'd like to see it happen
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I don’t want him taking Libba’s role.

We need a powerful inside bull in there and Macrae isn’t that.

GC would be his best option but he might want to stay in Victoria, so Saints, North or Bombers would be his options. GC could pay us the most in trade assets, the others would likely want to do pick upgrades (which IF big enough, I don’t mind either).

Hopefully his manager is exploring his options at the moment.
 
Next Waiting said:
I agree with the first 2 sentences, partially with the 3rd, not with the last.

My solution to the last is continued investment in Smith and possibly giving Williams some thought. Outside of that I don't see many options.

We're sort of in transition this year and we need Smith to work if we're to be any sort of chance of a shot at the stumps later in the year.

Beyond that, I 100% agree that we need to prioritise fast and quality on-ballers, whether we trade for them or draft them.
Click to expand...
Smith has limitations though. Look at the way Petrucca and Oliver play. Richards has the most attributes of anyone on our list. Yes he is playing great footy at half back, yet what could that be like in the middle? Smith is an outside runner who struggles in a "hot" contest. Richards thrives in 1 on 1 contests and in my view would be the same at centre bounces.
We need to look from within, otherwise we may just waste a 1 in a lifetime generation talent in the Bont. He deserves more than 1 premiership. I would draft onballers this year, yet we may not have time to wait for their development. Look from within and for me its Richards.
 
The disrespect 😳 personally id rather see him play out the next 5 years as the sub before I’d like to see him running around in opposition colours even if we got a high draft pick for it.

He’s an absolute legend and a gun player, everyone went early on CD who’s one of our best 6 or so players this year (Bont, English, Libba, Treloar, Richards ahead, maybe Liam Jones? That’s probably it) let’s cool it on a genuine gun in Macrae…
 
doggies ftw said:
The disrespect 😳 personally id rather see him play out the next 5 years as the sub before I’d like to see him running around in opposition colours even if we got a high draft pick for it.

He’s an absolute legend and a gun player
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Bit ridiculous isn't it.

Talking about hoping his manager is looking at other clubs ... the *?

Turfing a player like Macrae is a sure fire way of sinking the team
 
Libbaaaa said:
Also just remembered that passage of play in the 4th where big Timmy got clobbered across the arms by Angwin (?) for no free kick and then moments later Matt Flynn came flying in for the clearest 50m penalty you will ever see into Tim's back again for nothing. Pathetic.
Click to expand...
Umpiring was disgraceful across the game. Clearly a directive to not pay frees for both teams.
 
LittleG said:
I don’t want him taking Libba’s role.

We need a powerful inside bull in there and Macrae isn’t that.

GC would be his best option but he might want to stay in Victoria, so Saints, North or Bombers would be his options. GC could pay us the most in trade assets, the others would likely want to do pick upgrades (which IF big enough, I don’t mind either).

Hopefully his manager is exploring his options at the moment.
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It's a brutal business I know but I'd hate to see Macrae pensioned off to GCS or somewhere similar. He's been such a fiercely loyal Bulldog from the day he arrived and has given such great service it would be great to see him end his career as a one-club player.

Yeah I'm a sentimental traditionalist but if there's any move I hope it's his decision and not us pushing him out. He's a Bullgod after all.
 
Golden_6 said:
His stats across the board are actually nearly identical to his last season with the exception of uncontested possessions (down to 16 from 20).
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No, I don't think there's any doubt his production is down. The question I'm asking is why.

Look at the career stats I posted above. There's a modest difference between 2022 and 2023 but the difference between 2021 and 2023 is stark:

Disposals DOWN 20% (Kicks DOWN 29%, Handball DOWN 2%)
Marks DOWN 21%
Tackles DOWN 14%
GAs DOWN 40%
i50 UP 4%
Clearances DOWN 32%
Clangers DOWN 35% (a good thing!)
R50 DOWN 25%

I'm not being critical of Macrae. I'm just pointing out his stats AND the eye test say he's not exerting the sort of influence he had 2-3 years ago. I'm hoping there's some transient or tactical reason rather than having to accept that his career is in terminal decline. It shouldn't be happening yet.

Most of the differences between 2021 and 2023 could be put down to him being further away from the engine room (at least for some of the game) so I'm more inclined to follow Next Waiting 's line of reasoning.

I'm also clinging onto the hope that he might be nursing some sort of chronic injury (ribs? intercostal?) from which he could recover after a good off-season.

My gut feeling though is that we're seeing a permanent shift in our midfield dynamic. With Treloar and Libba also close to the end of their careers it highlights the need to
(1) use our high draft picks to recruit some more grunt and speed for the engine room
(2) find a way to tap the unrealised talent we already have in Bailey Smith.
 
dogwatch said:
No, I don't think there's any doubt his production is down. The question I'm asking is why.

Look at the career stats I posted above. There's a modest difference between 2022 and 2023 but the difference between 2021 and 2023 is stark:

Disposals DOWN 20% (Kicks DOWN 29%, Handball DOWN 2%)
Marks DOWN 21%
Tackles DOWN 14%
GAs DOWN 40%
i50 UP 4%
Clearances DOWN 32%
Clangers DOWN 35% (a good thing!)
R50 DOWN 25%

I'm not being critical of Macrae. I'm just pointing out his stats AND the eye test say he's not exerting the sort of influence he had 2-3 years ago. I'm hoping there's some transient or tactical reason rather than having to accept that his career is in terminal decline. It shouldn't be happening yet.

Most of the differences between 2021 and 2023 could be put down to him being further away from the engine room (at least for some of the game) so I'm more inclined to follow Next Waiting 's line of reasoning.

I'm also clinging onto the hope that he might be nursing some sort of chronic injury (ribs? intercostal?) from which he could recover after a good off-season.

My gut feeling though is that we're seeing a permanent shift in our midfield dynamic. With Treloar and Libba also close to the end of their careers it highlights the need to
(1) use our high draft picks to recruit some more grunt and speed for the engine room
(2) find a way to tap the unrealised talent we already have in Bailey Smith.
Click to expand...
It will be interesting to see what we will do with Smith. We’ve identified that his defensive work is a massive issue and have pretty much cut him completely out of the centre bounces since rounds 2-3. Even last week, the coaching staff have preferred to use Caleb and I’d be surprised if Smith attended more than 1 or 2 centre bounces over the past 2 weeks.
 
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