North Melbourne v West Coast.. who will be better in 2024?

Who will be better in 2024?


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Wardlaw is the biggest factor here.

It looks likely we will be adding a B&F candidate to the side week in week out compared to last year.

Not only that, he's going to bring absolute manic elite defensive pressure around the ball. Something we have struggled with for 4-5 years.

The average supporter has no idea what they are dealing with here yet and he looks fit and strong in early pre-season games. He's a level above both Ashcroft and Sheezel and I think the AFL world will see that this year.
I think you might be overestimating a second year player, Wardlaw im sure will be good, but hes still a second year player. He probably has similar impact to Ginbey this year.
 
I mean it’s line ball between Xerri and Williams


Factoring in Williams getting done by Hugh Greenwood, Xerri smashing his ankle and missing half the season, and sharing the ruck with goldy these stats don’t look great for Bailey
Not quite line ball lol, and Williams isnt our main ruck anymore, we have a guy who is better at rucking. Our backup is in a similar tier to your main guy
 

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I think you might be overestimating a second year player, Wardlaw im sure will be good, but hes still a second year player. He probably has similar impact to Ginbey this year.

Contested second year midfielder is very likely to tire from the physical battering week in and week out.

Suspect Wardlaw plays some really nice games in the first half of the year but will tire towards the end of the year, especially if the senior bodies in Simpkin and LDU cop injuries.

Daicos played well as a second year because he was largely uncontested and had plenty of mature bodies to support and protect him.
 
Contested second year midfielder is very likely to tire from the physical battering week in and week out.

Suspect Wardlaw plays some really nice games in the first half of the year but will tire towards the end of the year, especially if the senior bodies in Simpkin and LDU cop injuries.

Daicos played well as a second year because he was largely uncontested and had plenty of mature bodies to support and protect him.
Yep, I 100% agree. Its why im so adamant on the eagles here. Doesnt help Norths case that most of their young guys are 180cm mids and half forwards-relatively small in stature.
North have to rely on too many of the 1-3rd year guys to get anything done, the Eagles having a bunch of seasoned older guys should put them ahead for the year(barring injuries). In 2-3 years time itll probably be a different story.
 
Yep, I 100% agree. Its why im so adamant on the eagles here. Doesnt help Norths case that most of their young guys are 180cm mids and half forwards-relatively small in stature.
North have to rely on too many of the 1-3rd year guys to get anything done, the Eagles having a bunch of seasoned older guys should put them ahead for the year(barring injuries). In 2-3 years time itll probably be a different story.

What's your argument?

We are going to struggle at contested ball because we have 180cm mids?

LDU is 6"3 and I'm not sure you have to worry about Wardlaw.

For what it's worth, the 4 best clearance mids for clearance per game of 2023 were 178cm, 184cm, 180cm, 180cm.

I don't think it's the issue you think it is.

Who are these small in stature half forwards? Duursma, George, Curtis and Sheezel? None of them are small at all. George is built like a brick shithouse and Sheezel is a deceptively big body. Curtis is a powerful type and Duursma is 6"3 and likely to fill out.
 
What's your argument?

We are going to struggle at contested ball because we have 180cm mids?
No, not at the start of the season. Young players will tire faster, and being relatively small puts them at a disadvantage.
LDU is 6"3 and I'm not sure you have to worry about Wardlaw.
LDU is fine, nobody has any issues with LDU, hes a gun. Wardlaw will be good, you cant expect him to go into the CBAs and dominate as a second year player. Remember we have young players too who are bigger and just as good
For what it's worth, the 4 best clearance mids for clearance per game of 2023 were 178cm, 184cm, 180cm, 180cm.
They dont have to be big to win clearances, being younger and having a less mature body means they wont be able to go a whole season. A lot of the top clearance guys are not the guys getting the first touch either, they are the guy receiving a lot of the time. Neale for example often is the guy getting a handball and bursting from the stoppage.
I think you missed Bont btw, he was 3rd, and hes 192cm.
I don't think it's the issue you think it is.

Who are these small in stature half forwards? Duursma, George, Curtis and Sheezel? None of them are small at all. George is built like a brick shithouse and Sheezel is a deceptively big body. Curtis is a powerful type and Duursma is 6"3 and likely to fill out.
George and Duursma havent played yet, Sheezel is an outside player who relies on somebody giving him the ball at this stage, just like Daicos.

You forget that the eagles also have young players who are maturing. Ginbey is twice the size of Wardlaw for example.
Im not saying North dont have talent, im comparing their list for 2024 to the eagles 2024 list, and it would take another injury plagued year for the Eagles to sit behind North.

If you think the eagles finished last because there is no talent on the list, you clearly havent been paying attention
 
Wardlaw will be good, you cant expect him to go into the CBAs and dominate

Sheezel is an outside player who relies on somebody giving him the ball at this stage, just like Daicos.

Ginbey is twice the size of Wardlaw for example.

Harry sheezel averaged exactly as many contested possessions as Reuben Ginbey.

6.8 per game for both.

More than Elijah Hewitt who averaged 6 per game.

The Warlord averaged 7.4.

4.1 clearances per game for the warlord vs 2.1 for Ginbey.

Warlord last year

1705967239218.jpeg

Warlord now

1705967276772.jpeg
 
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I did some pros and cons for each.


North Melbourne

Pros: Has had the 'best youth' for 7 years now. Should be ready to fire.
Cons: Has had the 'best youth' for 7 years now. Why the hell haven't they fired yet?
Bonus con: An organisation with a toxic obsession with an ex. If the ex was total mediocrity and incompetence.

West Coast

Pros: Still have some handy players but have been absolutely destroyed by injuries so true position still a bit unknown.
Bonus Pro: Well run club with a culture of success.
Con: Step Zero in the rebuild.

Conclusion: It'll be close!
 
realistically how much improvement can north expect from last year off the back of a bunch of players that probably havent even played 30 games yet? and theyve completely lost any defensive experience they 'relied' on last year. unbelievably they might be even worse than previous years! in saying that they have a load of talent, if they can keep them from getting jack watts'ed and bring in some talent in other areas of the ground except the middle, they have a good future but still a while away... maybe some more AFL charity will speed that up

the eagles as hard as it is for me to say have a much better looking spine and should be able to hold up decently across the season. biggest issue for them is the middle, if kelly/yea/duggan/sheed can stay fit for a good portion of the year the eagles should be able to pip a few more wins, still will be bottom 4 though no doubt
 
Harry sheezel averaged exactly as many contested possessions as Reuben Ginbey.

6.8 per game for both.

More than Elijah Hewitt who averaged 6 per game.

The Warlord averaged 7.4.

4.1 clearances per game for the warlord vs 2.1 for Ginbey.

Warlord last year

View attachment 1891046

Warlord now

View attachment 1891047

The point being that it's highly unlikely a 2nd year player could carry an inside midfield clearance role for an entire season. He's come off two injury interrupted seasons between his draft year and last season.

Might want to temper your expectations somewhat. He'll play some nice games no doubt, but it's unlikely he'll get it done week in week out for 23 games. That usually takes 3-5 years.
 
The point being that it's highly unlikely a 2nd year player could carry an inside midfield clearance role for an entire season. He's come off two injury interrupted seasons between his draft year and last season.

Might want to temper your expectations somewhat. He'll play some nice games no doubt, but it's unlikely he'll get it done week in week out for 23 games. That usually takes 3-5 years.

Where did I say that wardlaw will need to carry out midfield week after week?

I simply pointed out that despite being “smaller” than Ginbey he got more contested possessions and twice as many clearances. He was also way less physically prepared to do so.

Also that if sheezel “needs to be fed the ball”, yet wins as much contested possession as Ginbey, and more than Hewitt, maybe the person that wrote that is off the mark.
 
Where did I say that wardlaw will need to carry out midfield week after week?

I simply pointed out that despite being “smaller” than Ginbey he got more contested possessions and twice as many clearances. He was also way less physically prepared to do so.

Also that if sheezel “needs to be fed the ball”, yet wins as much contested possession as Ginbey, and more than Hewitt, maybe the person that wrote that is off the mark.

This was the comment that started the chain that you replied in to;

Wardlaw is the biggest factor here.

It looks likely we will be adding a B&F candidate to the side week in week out compared to last year.

Not only that, he's going to bring absolute manic elite defensive pressure around the ball. Something we have struggled with for 4-5 years.

The average supporter has no idea what they are dealing with here yet and he looks fit and strong in early pre-season games. He's a level above both Ashcroft and Sheezel and I think the AFL world will see that this ye

Contested possessions are a bit misleading; there's three main ones for midfielders (the bolded) below. Unfortunately we don't get access to the breakdown of these so we have to guess it by eye. Clearances can be similarly misleading.


A possession which has been won when the ball is in dispute. Includes looseball-gets, hardball-gets, contested marks, gathers from a hit-out and frees for.

Example; Darcy Parish wins a high rate of contested possessions, but mostly from looseball-gets and gathers from a hit-out. Useful yes, but not the bottom of the pack kind of guy like a Cunnington or Liberatore, or the guy who simply rips it out of a group of players like Martin, Dangerfield or Petracca can. In a big final at a big moment it's the hardball-get players that became incredibly valuable.

Sheezel might have high contested possessions but gets them in the same way a Darcy Parish does, or a Nick Daicos does.

Wardlaw is going to be a very high level hardball-gets player, but it takes a very different physical toll on the body to do that at AFL level on a weekly basis. Cunnington was in his 4th year when he really got rolling.
 
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No, not at the start of the season. Young players will tire faster, and being relatively small puts them at a disadvantage.

LDU is fine, nobody has any issues with LDU, hes a gun. Wardlaw will be good, you cant expect him to go into the CBAs and dominate as a second year player. Remember we have young players too who are bigger and just as good

They dont have to be big to win clearances, being younger and having a less mature body means they wont be able to go a whole season. A lot of the top clearance guys are not the guys getting the first touch either, they are the guy receiving a lot of the time. Neale for example often is the guy getting a handball and bursting from the stoppage.
I think you missed Bont btw, he was 3rd, and hes 192cm.

George and Duursma havent played yet, Sheezel is an outside player who relies on somebody giving him the ball at this stage, just like Daicos.

You forget that the eagles also have young players who are maturing. Ginbey is twice the size of Wardlaw for example.
Im not saying North dont have talent, im comparing their list for 2024 to the eagles 2024 list, and it would take another injury plagued year for the Eagles to sit behind North.

If you think the eagles finished last because there is no talent on the list, you clearly havent been paying attention

Someone has a weird height obsession.
 
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