Our First Pick - The Deficit

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Joao

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Well, we can mathematically end up with pick 6-9 pre-deficit now.

Us vs Dogs
Bombers vs Dees
Blues vs Lions
Giants vs Saints

6 requires the Bombers to win and Carlton to win or to match our result with better % - very unlikely (Dons are ****)
7 requires Carlton to win or to match our result with better or Carlton % - possible especially given you'd expect the Lions to play bruise free
8 requires Carlton to match our result at best without making up % - plausible
9 requires us to win and Giants to lose and for us to make ~4% - unlikely
 

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Scham

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Highly doubt that now, our pick is going to be teens after likely JUH and Campbell bids. At least one club rates him a top 5.

It would be the point where even I would probably be happy as he'd be a bargain at ~14.

I reckon he drops. An undersized KPD won’t appeal to too many in the first dozen or so.

Smart at Swans. JLo and Smart old buddies.

Much, much stranger things have happened.
 

Danny82

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Essendon might be interested in swapping our first and Blakely for their first. They can't trade their first outright and need midfield grunt, they would then get the mature body and a first round pick.

At the moment that would be:
#12 and Blakely for #6
For that trade to even be a remote possibility would have to be Darcy Tucker and not blakely. Blakely alone would be worth a forth round pick.
 

mightymouse75

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Well, we can mathematically end up with pick 6-9 pre-deficit now.

Us vs Dogs
Bombers vs Dees
Blues vs Lions
Giants vs Saints

6 requires the Bombers to win and Carlton to win or to match our result with better % - very unlikely (Dons are ****)
7 requires Carlton to win or to match our result with better or Carlton % - possible especially given you'd expect the Lions to play bruise free
8 requires Carlton to match our result at best without making up % - plausible
9 requires us to win and Giants to lose and for us to make ~4% - unlikely
Worst case scenario pick 9 becomes 14 before compensation pics etc.
Could blow out to 17.
 

Superkoops

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So if we’re sitting 11th at the end of the GF, which would nominally give us pick 8, we slide to 12, and any academy/FS picks before that doesn’t affect our points regardless of where that pick ends up (say 14 with bid matching etc). So even if we end up with pick 14, the points stay the same and don’t slide, pushing us further back. Is that right? Am I making sense?
If we finish where we are now that would normally be pick 8. After 265 pts deficit that leaves us with 1286 points. Pick 12 is 1268. So we get pick 12 and a surplus of 18 pts.

Any picks between 9 and 11 incl. the GCS (now Geelong) priority pick move forward one selection.

Then the initial pick selections are set prior to the draft. We can trade pick 12 if we want. During the trade and FA period that selection can move back further due to FA compensation picks. The biggest round 1 danger would be Daniher. There are also others like Corr, Williams, Atkins and Crouch which are all likely in the range ‘end of first round’ or second round’. So 12 may be come 13. Then there are academy bids in the the first 12 rounds so our pick 8 to 12 to 13 could push back to 15/16. Just a touch higher than the pick we landed Sam Sturt at in 2018.

With COVID it seems a rather even draft in the first couple of rounds and more difficult to predict stand outs. Also think back to 2017 and our own number 2 selection Andy Brayshaw who whilst a likely top 12 pick at the start of the year rocketed up the boards with an awesome end to his U18 season and some very good draft combine results. There are always stories like this (Clayton Oliver is another). These VIC players haven’t had the chance to impress in exposed games and remain untapped potential. All they have to impress is a modified Draft Combine.

So there will be some good talent at 8-10, also some good talent at 14-16 and again for a team like Brisbane with two picks at the end of the first round.
 

Freomaniac

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We picked four guns from four picks last year, its the sort of draft might set us up for a premiership down the track.

Couldn't give a stuff if it means falling from pick 8 to 12 or whatever if that's what it took to bring those guys in.
Yeah I agree with this. Probably as good as our haul in that legendary 2008 draft Where freo got a lot of servicable players in Hill, Suban, Ballantyne, Zac Clarke, Walters, de boer and Clancee Pearce as all had at least gave us 100 games and 8 years of service each minimum.
yup, people overrate picks.

If we needed to bid higher for Henry we would have - he was our man, we had invested guys like Walter's time developing him, getting him ready for AFL. The price whatever it was, we were willing to pay it.
Its not about overrating picks its what you do with them. As I said. When freo finished 14th in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons, Both years we had no 2nd rounder or pick 23. As I said, I dont mind trading picks 5 and 41 which is an early 1st and 3rd rounder for a teams mid 1st, 2nd and 3rd Such as picks 10, 28 and 46 or 12, 30 and 48.


Carlton wanted Serong. They bid on Henry and not Green because we got Caleb and Sos sold his soul to GWS previously.
Sounds about right. Carlton could of tanked the 2019 season to get him. Serong is a gun. Henry looks solid. Hoping both play 200-250 games for freo.
Yep they were pissed we got their target.
Rightfully so. If they are bitter then thats their problem.
Malicious at the time but will go down as common sense in 3 years when Henry is a better player than Green & who ever Carlton picked.
I think Hayden Young, Caleb serong and Liam henry will be serviceable 200 gamers for us.



Again you look at the GWS trade that involved with Cam McCarthy. Freo Traded pick 3 for Cam Mcarthy, Pick 8 in logue, Pick 32 in darcy and pick 72 in Ryan. More than happy to trade pick 3 for 4 players in our 22 when fully fit. Pity Cam McCarthy didnt make it at freo in the end as he was the most talented and naturally skilled of those 4.

Then you look at the Harley Bennell trade(s). Traded picks 16 and 35 for bennell and pick 22. Not bad. then traded the 2016 2nd rounder and pick 61 to get pick 35 back and for pick 55. yes that 2016 2nd rounder ended up as pick 21. But I dont care what the suns used those picks on, I care about freos picks.

22 ended up as Darcy tucker, 35 was harley balic and 55 was Ironically was Sam Collins.

Port trade in 2018 was still worked out ok for freo.

Yeah we gave up picks 6 and 2019 3rd rounder but got picks 11, 23, 30 and 49. Then traded picks 11 and 23 to GWS for 14 and Rory Lobb.
 

Freomaniac

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Agreed, if winning these last few games helps us sign cerra, Andy, Serong and young on long term deals it will be well worth it.
We will still get a very decent player with pick 11/12. And I’m pretty sure there won’t be any FA compensation picks in the top 10 this year, maybe Daniher but who would offer him big long term bucks with his injury history? I saw somewhere here yesterday that crouch not going to get offered near enough for band 1 compo either.
It’s the first time in 5 years that we have been humming in the 2nd half of the season. Much rather that than going into the draft with false hope
considering the last 4-5 years.....

2016: started 0-10, won 3 games in a row beating essendon, brisbane and port to go 3-10 and won the last game of the season going 4-18.

2017: Started with a 6-3 record. Got belted by crows by 100 points 143-43. I didnt care. 6-4 is way better than 0-10. only won 2 more game in the 2nd half of the season. Would of loved to have finshed with 2-3 more wins with a 10-12 or 11-11 record and got pick 7-8 instead but we would missed out on either Brayshaw or Cerra or both.

2018: 4-7 after 11 games. ended up 8-14, won 7 home games and won 1 away game vs a hopeless carlton team at docklands. I am convinced we tanked the last 2 games of that 2018 season as we got belted by the cats in Geelong and lost to Collingwood at home narrowly, which in my opinion we should of won despite the magpies making the grand final that year.

2019: was 6-5 then ended up 9-13 with the injuries piling up. Could of made finals.

2020: Started 0-4 but was competive. Win 7 games from rounds 5-17. we will end up 7-10 after losing to the dogs and will look back in this season think we should be 10-7 and playing a final or 2.
Pick 11 out to 14 is fine with me.
No footy in Vic etc in 2020, means it’s a great year for a slider

plus winning is way more important for us at this stage
I agree. to this extent. 2016-18 was the rebuilding years of getting the youth in. 2019 Ross Lyon attempted a finals push but failed and got sacked. J-lo becomes the new coach. most had low expectations and didnt expect finals but J-lo has performed beyond expectations.
Good point. Normally Freo just limping to rnd 23. Now one of few that want the season to continue.
true and I agree. pity we wont play finals. Teams like Saints and demons would not want a final vs freo in Queenland after what we have done to them.
True i just mean the last time i felt we finished a year strongly was probably 2012/13.

Back on topic though I reckon we could still pick up a good player with pick 11/12/13 that slides. Like dockeroo said i rather get the wins for the culture than higher draft picks.
Regardless of the result vs the Bulldogs..... Win, Lose, draw or tank.... Freo is heading into the right direction. I dont care if freo finishes 11th with pick 8 turning into pick 10 or 12th with pick 7 turning into pick 9.

Might trade a 2021 2nd rounder or 2021 3rd rounder to try and get a gem to add to freos depth.
 

Joao

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I reckon he drops. An undersized KPD won’t appeal to too many in the first dozen or so.

Smart at Swans. JLo and Smart old buddies.

Much, much stranger things have happened.
If he is undersized then we don't want him either. His appeal is if he can play on genuine KPFs and intercept.

Thought I read that he grew to 195 as well. Guess we'll have to wait until the combine.
 

Scham

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If he is undersized then we don't want him either. His appeal is if he can play on genuine KPFs and intercept.

Thought I read that he grew to 195 as well. Guess we'll have to wait until the combine.

We may not need him but we’d definitely want him at our pick. I agree that his current appeal is if he can play on genuine KPF’s and intercept, but from what I’ve seen he can’t do either to a high enough level to go top 10.

His real appeal is his athleticism and footy nouse and if he can prove to be versatile he’d easily be top 10. But he’s played exclusively as a KPD this year, which imo is dropping his draft value. Not very Smart by his management, or is it?

I know I’m clutching at straws and it’s a guess but so is everyone else on here. As you say, time will tell.
 

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nurries

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Hamling will be 28 when next season starts, so if he gets over his ankle he only has a few years in him. Pearce isn’t a certainty next year (or any year) so a 19 year old KPD is maybe a good thing if available. No go home risk if he doesn’t play straight up either
 

Joao

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We may not need him but we’d definitely want him at our pick. I agree that his current appeal is if he can play on genuine KPF’s and intercept, but from what I’ve seen he can’t do either to a high enough level to go top 10.

His real appeal is his athleticism and footy nouse and if he can prove to be versatile he’d easily be top 10. But he’s played exclusively as a KPD this year, which imo is dropping his draft value. Not very Smart by his management, or is it?

I know I’m clutching at straws and it’s a guess but so is everyone else on here. As you say, time will tell.
Well if he isn't top 10 then I'd have absolutely zero interest taking him at ~14. The appeal for me there is if he actually is a top 5 talent you just take him. If he isn't a top 5 talent then we are right back where we were when it looked like we would have pick 2-5 and there he is so far from our greatest need it hurts.
 

wayToGo_

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DGB is quality. The kid is playing against senior bodies. They could have left him at Colts but it simply wasn't going to challenge him enough. Fortunately the recruiters understand the massive step up (even more so since seeing how Naughton has gone) and will take that into account when valuing him - which is also why McDonald has skyrocketed in pick #1 favouritism (disregarding JUH).
 

Paracleet

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With clubs rankings likely to be less in alignment than in a normal year it is much more likely we will be suprised by whomever we pick. The chance that someone we rank top 5 ends up at 12+/- is very real for mine and that = best available.
 

Wobbly Punt

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Unless something changes and the Logan kiddy drops a few I don’t see any way DGB goes past them.

Stratton gone, Sicily our for a year. Frawley almost cooked. Frost is the only guy down there with any future and whilst he’s decent he’s not someone to build around.

DGB fits needs and also likely best available for them. They need a lot but this one seems highly likely to happen at this point to me.

O’Driscoll is a real possibility I think. Not a bad result.
 
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Joao

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I have been big on O'Driscoll because he was being phrased as like Dangerfield-lite. His writeups of late make him sound more like Deboer.

We need someone who gets from the middle of a pack to the outside really quickly and it sounds like that's not really his game. He sounds more like a good two way player.
 

CapitalA

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If O'Driscoll and Carroll are both available at our pick around 15ish who do we take?

I would think Carroll since they are both ranked about the same but he is the more outside player with good decision making.

But i also think it is highly likely we pick up a tall who we think can become a ruck/forward with our first due to limited list space and we have guaranteed outside runners in our nga.
 

Joao

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Think Carroll ahead of O'Driscoll. If we can't get the genuine outside speed then I think the skill of Carroll is more appealing.
 

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