- Sep 19, 2004
- AFL Club
I can see us ending up with DGB.
Highly doubt that now, our pick is going to be teens after likely JUH and Campbell bids. At least one club rates him a top 5.
It would be the point where even I would probably be happy as he'd be a bargain at ~14.
For that trade to even be a remote possibility would have to be Darcy Tucker and not blakely. Blakely alone would be worth a forth round pick.Essendon might be interested in swapping our first and Blakely for their first. They can't trade their first outright and need midfield grunt, they would then get the mature body and a first round pick.
At the moment that would be:
#12 and Blakely for #6
Worst case scenario pick 9 becomes 14 before compensation pics etc.Well, we can mathematically end up with pick 6-9 pre-deficit now.
Us vs Dogs
Bombers vs Dees
Blues vs Lions
Giants vs Saints
6 requires the Bombers to win and Carlton to win or to match our result with better % - very unlikely (Dons are ****)
7 requires Carlton to win or to match our result with better or Carlton % - possible especially given you'd expect the Lions to play bruise free
8 requires Carlton to match our result at best without making up % - plausible
9 requires us to win and Giants to lose and for us to make ~4% - unlikely
If we finish where we are now that would normally be pick 8. After 265 pts deficit that leaves us with 1286 points. Pick 12 is 1268. So we get pick 12 and a surplus of 18 pts.So if we’re sitting 11th at the end of the GF, which would nominally give us pick 8, we slide to 12, and any academy/FS picks before that doesn’t affect our points regardless of where that pick ends up (say 14 with bid matching etc). So even if we end up with pick 14, the points stay the same and don’t slide, pushing us further back. Is that right? Am I making sense?
Yeah I agree with this. Probably as good as our haul in that legendary 2008 draft Where freo got a lot of servicable players in Hill, Suban, Ballantyne, Zac Clarke, Walters, de boer and Clancee Pearce as all had at least gave us 100 games and 8 years of service each minimum.We picked four guns from four picks last year, its the sort of draft might set us up for a premiership down the track.
Couldn't give a stuff if it means falling from pick 8 to 12 or whatever if that's what it took to bring those guys in.
Its not about overrating picks its what you do with them. As I said. When freo finished 14th in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons, Both years we had no 2nd rounder or pick 23. As I said, I dont mind trading picks 5 and 41 which is an early 1st and 3rd rounder for a teams mid 1st, 2nd and 3rd Such as picks 10, 28 and 46 or 12, 30 and 48.yup, people overrate picks.
If we needed to bid higher for Henry we would have - he was our man, we had invested guys like Walter's time developing him, getting him ready for AFL. The price whatever it was, we were willing to pay it.
Sounds about right. Carlton could of tanked the 2019 season to get him. Serong is a gun. Henry looks solid. Hoping both play 200-250 games for freo.Carlton wanted Serong. They bid on Henry and not Green because we got Caleb and Sos sold his soul to GWS previously.
Rightfully so. If they are bitter then thats their problem.Yep they were pissed we got their target.
I think Hayden Young, Caleb serong and Liam henry will be serviceable 200 gamers for us.Malicious at the time but will go down as common sense in 3 years when Henry is a better player than Green & who ever Carlton picked.
Agreed, if winning these last few games helps us sign cerra, Andy, Serong and young on long term deals it will be well worth it.
We will still get a very decent player with pick 11/12. And I’m pretty sure there won’t be any FA compensation picks in the top 10 this year, maybe Daniher but who would offer him big long term bucks with his injury history? I saw somewhere here yesterday that crouch not going to get offered near enough for band 1 compo either.
considering the last 4-5 years.....It’s the first time in 5 years that we have been humming in the 2nd half of the season. Much rather that than going into the draft with false hope
I agree. to this extent. 2016-18 was the rebuilding years of getting the youth in. 2019 Ross Lyon attempted a finals push but failed and got sacked. J-lo becomes the new coach. most had low expectations and didnt expect finals but J-lo has performed beyond expectations.Pick 11 out to 14 is fine with me.
No footy in Vic etc in 2020, means it’s a great year for a slider
plus winning is way more important for us at this stage
true and I agree. pity we wont play finals. Teams like Saints and demons would not want a final vs freo in Queenland after what we have done to them.Good point. Normally Freo just limping to rnd 23. Now one of few that want the season to continue.
Regardless of the result vs the Bulldogs..... Win, Lose, draw or tank.... Freo is heading into the right direction. I dont care if freo finishes 11th with pick 8 turning into pick 10 or 12th with pick 7 turning into pick 9.True i just mean the last time i felt we finished a year strongly was probably 2012/13.
Back on topic though I reckon we could still pick up a good player with pick 11/12/13 that slides. Like dockeroo said i rather get the wins for the culture than higher draft picks.
If he is undersized then we don't want him either. His appeal is if he can play on genuine KPFs and intercept.I reckon he drops. An undersized KPD won’t appeal to too many in the first dozen or so.
Smart at Swans. JLo and Smart old buddies.
Much, much stranger things have happened.
If he is undersized then we don't want him either. His appeal is if he can play on genuine KPFs and intercept.
Thought I read that he grew to 195 as well. Guess we'll have to wait until the combine.
Well if he isn't top 10 then I'd have absolutely zero interest taking him at ~14. The appeal for me there is if he actually is a top 5 talent you just take him. If he isn't a top 5 talent then we are right back where we were when it looked like we would have pick 2-5 and there he is so far from our greatest need it hurts.We may not need him but we’d definitely want him at our pick. I agree that his current appeal is if he can play on genuine KPF’s and intercept, but from what I’ve seen he can’t do either to a high enough level to go top 10.
His real appeal is his athleticism and footy nouse and if he can prove to be versatile he’d easily be top 10. But he’s played exclusively as a KPD this year, which imo is dropping his draft value. Not very Smart by his management, or is it?
I know I’m clutching at straws and it’s a guess but so is everyone else on here. As you say, time will tell.