When do the dates for Round 16 and 17 get confirmed?
Our Run home - near impossible to finish top 4
- Thread starter RJK Tiger
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Tiger_Of_Old
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Think Doggies are shakey.
Tiger_Of_Old
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Only 3 certs on their run home.Yep and its still possible for me to shag Cindy Crawford technically. Doesn't mean its likely to happen.
Melbourne losing to Collingwood means squat - because WE lost to the Eagles. Heaps of people have shat on me on this thread, but those who did the same exercise have all came to the same conclusion - its going to be bloody hard. For us to do it, we needed to beat the Ealges, Lions & Cats. If we went 2 out of 3, we still relied on others losing against bottom 8 teams, at home. If we went 1 for 3 - no chance. The comment is still looking pretty bloody right so far. The only team i see possibly falling out of the 8 is the Lions ( Dogs, Dee's too much head start. - Geelong, too primed & have good players coming back in).
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If you can find the 3 extra loses the Lions willl have MORE than us over the next 10 weeks, well done. I couldn't, unless i just relied on good ol fashioned "wishful thinking"
We will need the Lions to lose 3 more games than us over the remaining games. Top 4 teams dont go 1-6 against the other top 8 teams - duh
Stk/Suns & Pies.
As much as I dislike the cats the lions have many more campaigners playing for them. Zorko, wobinson, bawomata, Daniher, even their coach is a flog. Just a very unlike able team. Can’t wait for rd 18.
- Thread starter
- #457
lol, your point is completely irrelevant to what i said.
I never said their injuries are as bad as ours. What i said was, Its illogical to think that either teams 2nd half of the year will just magically be worse than the first half, as both teams have had their BEST player miss a large number of games and are now fully fit, rested & likely to make them stronger.
At the current time, neither team has ANY injuries that suggest their second half of the year will be impacted, let alone a run of injures like we had. They only have THEIR BEST player returning to the line-up - it suggest they will get stronger, not weaker.
Our injuries suck, but players returning does not magically make us win games we have already lost - nor make our top 4 opponents more likely to lose to North Melbourne etc. I haven't watched a full replay of last nights game, but watching the last 2 minute video compared to ours last week - it looked to me both teams handled that pressure far better than we did. Dogs were unlucky to lose, they won a lot of key one on ones & didn't lose due to choke - The Cats kept coming and took a wonderful set shot from Rohan to win it. You compare that to our last 2 minutes, which to be honest was a ******* s**t show. We need to worry about the team lifting and stop giving to sods about "top 4". I would rather us play like a top 4 team than just scrap through due to other teams falling over, which is what we are relying on now
With the top 8 looking set, i'd be curious to see a "games left v top 8" table.
We'll indeed need to play like a top 4 side to make the 4, other teams falling over is part of that deal now, they do play each other so not everyone is going to keep winning each week, the 4 is a stretch but we can still hit Finals as one of the form sides going in & nobody will want to play us. We could put someone out in str8 sets if they don't hold thier form.
- Jun 28, 2017
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Brisvegas (3)
Geelong at gabba, Us at the MCG, West coast at the Gabba.
They also play fremantle at optus
Geelong (3)
Brisbane at gabba, Us at MCG, Melbourne at GMHBA
they also play Freo at optus and Giants at Giants stadium
Melbourne (4)
Port in Adelaide, Dogs at MCG, West coast at Optus, Geelong at GMHBA
They also play Giants at MCG
Port (3)
Sydney in Adelaide, Melbourne in Adelaide, Dogs at Marvel
They also Play Giants in canberra
Us (2)
Brisbane in melbourne, Geelong at the mcg,
we also play Giants at giants stadium and freo at Optus
Sydney (3)
Port in Adelaide, West coast at SCG, dogs at marvel
They also play giants at Giants stadium and Freo at SCG
West coast (4)
Dogs at Optus, Sydney at SCG, Melbourne at Optus, Brisbane at Gabba,
they also play freo at optus
Dogs (4)
West coast at Optus, Sydney at Marvel, Melbourne at MCG, Port at Marvel
i have also included freo and giants as i believe they are the only 2 clubs with a chance of sneaking in to the 8 as they are currently a game + percentage (freo) or assuming they beat carlton today just a draw behind 8th (giants)
Giants (5)
melbourne at the MCG, Sydney at Giants stadium, port in Canberra, Geelong at GMHBA, Richmond at Giants stadium
Fremantle (5)
Geelong at Optus, sydney at SCG, Richmond at Optus, Brisbane at Optus, West coast at Optus,
You're right but Simple logic gets lost on some. I tried to explain Ad nauseam to lions supporters that having 5 of our best 7 mids out in Cotchin, Prestia, Edwards, Bolton and Lambert would be hard to win.
I had some coming back with we had 5 out to and my reply was your 5 out aren't in the one area of the ground.
Neale and Berry were out which are 2 of their best mids but add another 3, McCluggage, Lyons and Zorko. The game would've been over at halftime.
They harped on about Lester lol and Gardener being out, it's like us saying we have Astbury out (can understand if it was Harris Andrews).
Raynor missing too but that's one small forward to replace.
But the point of the argument is, if you have 1-2 out in the midfield or forward line you can somewhat shuffle the magnets around as we did with CCJ for Lynch, unfortunately, we could not replace Nank because our 2nd ruck Soldo is also out.
Take Petracca and Oliver out of the dees and they would be stuffed.
Take Guthrie, Danger, Selwood, Duncan and Menagola out and cats would drop many games
The eagles have Shuey and Kelly out but let's say they also had another 3 in Yeo, Gaff and Sheed out, anyone think they would be winning games.
If we don't get top 4 reckon we'll finish 5th and likely not travel interstate as the dees, dogs and cats look likely holding on to the top 3 spots.
Richmond at full strength at the G in finals is a very scary proposition and I would back us to beat anyone on the G when finals pressure goes up several notches.
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What does it matter? when you're the champs and have won 3 **** in the last 4 years you must back us in because come finals you know how the story goes buckle up because this is when the tigers shift into another gear.
Just for comparison in 2018, the pies only beat one top 8 team and that didn't stop them from making the granny and almost winning it.
The Cats before this round I said they don't have a soft run home as they play 4 top 8 teams in the Dogs, Lions, Tigers and Dees .
Them winning after the siren I spewed but still have 3 tough games to come> Lions, Tigers and Dees.
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Essendon are surely the most likely to be the team to sneak in. They will be a game behind us by the end of the weekend.
- Jun 28, 2017
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ah but you forget
essendon are s**t
id actually forgotten about them really XD
Essendon (4)
Demons at the MCG, Geelong at GMHBA, Sydney at Marvel, Dogs at Marvel
also play Giants at marvel
- Feb 25, 2014
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Flag up for grabs... Swans the only team in the eight who probably can’t win it.
The fittest team come September will be a big show.
The fittest team come September will be a big show.
Not getting the results we want for our team and then not getting the results we want for our other top 4 contenders. Just have to hang tough now and get out best players on the park playing their best football as a team.
Masotiger
All Australian
Bring it on! To quote someone dear to us: "Nothing better than to go to a hostile environment and sit them on their arse!!"
Thats a good fixture for us as I see them as the only real threat to the eight
Bloody hope Hawthorn just didnt get themselves up for Sydney. Knocking Essendons chances downhill tomorrow should be more important to them. Might need Derm to give them a rev up.
Might not even make finals at this rate
yeah all these byes are killing us
- Feb 25, 2014
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Might not, no guarantees.
One of the joys of following a sporting team... the highs, plenty of those recently, and lows, not so many of those recently.
If we don’t then we dust ourselves off, congratulate the winners, and go again in 2022.
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We'll make it. Somewhere in the bottom half of the 8 most likely, so who knows from there.
- Jul 15, 2014
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One thing you’re forgetting is that this terrible record is mirroring 2019 pretty closely. We were 1-4 against the teams that ended up finishing in the top 8 by the bye. This year we’re 1-6 (that is, if everyone currently in the top 8 will end up making it). The only difference is that we played more top 8 sides this year than 2019. Even losing 60+ to Geelong is on form.
If we have a look at the opposition ladder at the bye (end of Round 14):
2019:
1. Geelong 11-2 146.0%
2. Collingwood 10-3 126.3%
3. GWS 9-4 132.9%
4. West Coast 9-4 106.2%
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9. Richmond 7-6 92.0%
2021:
1. Melbourne 11-2 132.2%
2. Western Bulldogs 10-3 144.7%
3. Geelong 10-3 127.7%
4. Brisbane 9-4 128.4%
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8. Richmond 7-6 105.3%
It is worth noting that we finished above three of the top 4 at the bye in 2019 (Collingwood, GWS and West Coast) and only had lower percentage than Collingwood out of the three despite going into the bye with a lowly percentage of 92.0%.
Point is, it’s not guaranteed that all of the current top 4 will stay in good form. In fact, it’s probably something that happens quite regularly. We tend to see at least one top 4 side at the bye fall out in recent years, opening up a spot. In 2018 it was Sydney. In 2017 it was Port Adelaide. In 2016 it was no one, but none of the top 4 won the Premiership. Yes, it isn’t guaranteed that we’ll hit good form in the second half of the year either but that’s been a trait of ours since 2013 (bar 2016).
Therefore, as long as we win our own games then there is still a pretty decent chance that the rest will end up working out just as it did in the 2019 season. As teams fatigue, they may end up dropping games that they normally would be expected to win like West Coast and Collingwood losing to Hawthorn in 2019 and Collingwood getting thrashed by North Melbourne so top 4 chance is still there IMO.
- Jul 15, 2014
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Last 9 Rounds since 2013:
2013: 6-3
2014: 9-0
2015: 7-2
2016: 2-7
2017: 7-2
2018: 8-1
2019: 9-0
2020: 8-1
We’re pretty reliable in the last 9 games (especially recently), so I expect us to lose at most 1 or 2 more games. Sounds to me like 9-0 also looks pretty good given our draw as well.
2013: 6-3
2014: 9-0
2015: 7-2
2016: 2-7
2017: 7-2
2018: 8-1
2019: 9-0
2020: 8-1
We’re pretty reliable in the last 9 games (especially recently), so I expect us to lose at most 1 or 2 more games. Sounds to me like 9-0 also looks pretty good given our draw as well.
- Banned
- #475
we dont even need to get out of second gear and we'll still make top 4
