Toast Path to finals - We're in the Eight baby!!

[bedford]

I'm 0-3

2 5

 

[RubbaDuck]

You make some fine points. I will take them under consideration, however, just in case, do you have a spare couch I can crash on?

Sure mate, but as my dad used to say, "knock with your elbows"

I still think it's morally unacceptable for a Swans supporter to be forced out of his or her own home by Carlton fans.

 

[RubbaDuck]

can't see us winning week one

That's not helpful. What we need is the sort of impassioned one-eyed support, unrestrained fandom and unbridled optimism that kept a young Bedford on life support throughout a 72 year Premiership drought.

Keep the dream alive.

 

[RubbaDuck]

If we manage to beat Carlton next week then the further into finals we go, the more advantageous that loss to Melbourne will prove to be.

If you subscribe to the idea that all good things come to an end, then it's better that we go into finals off a loss, rather than seven straight wins.

And it also means that from here on, if we're to win the premiership, we only need to win four games in a row, rather than eleven games in a row.

We've essentially been given a reality check and a chance to reset, at the expense of a home final. Not the worst deal.

You got some mighty flawed statistics right there. If you'd already won seven coin tosses on the trot, the chance of wining another four coin tosses in a row is statistically the same as winning four in a row following seven losses. Now maybe seven wins would drive conficence

The advantage of a loss is not a statistical one, but a learning one. The most competitive sports people hate losing passionately, so when they inevitably do lose at some point they look for ways to ensure it never happens again. Losing builds resilience too, especially if the person or team can get back to winning. I hope every Swan feels the loss against Melbourne, painfully and personally, they'll feel compelled to learn and improve and we can get back to winning games.

 

[MF]

The good thing about the Melbourne game is that it wasn't necessarily a demoralizing or disheatening loss. I know they didn't have much to play for but you can't tell me there weren't going 100% in that final quarter. We were a few errant kicks or a Papley injury away from matching it with them and I think they're the best team in it this year.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

The good thing about the Melbourne game is that it wasn't necessarily a demoralizing or disheatening loss. I know they didn't have much to play for but you can't tell me there weren't going 100% in that final quarter. We were a few errant kicks or a Papley injury away from matching it with them and I think they're the best team in it this year.

Agreed, I think it just reinforced what the team already knew - that we weren't putting in a full 4 quarter performance. So it's actually a good reality check leading into finals. However, showed that we were good enough to match it with the best for most of the game.

With 2 weeks to work on it, I'm sure that will be in sharp focus for the team - the players have all mentioned it in their recent pressers, so I'm confident that we'll do whatever it takes to work on it in an attempt to rectify it before the Carlton match.

We go in with a certain level of confidence, and a solid understanding as to what we need to improve on to give ourselves the best chance at a flag.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

Good to know Horse has used BF in mapping out the path to finals.

@ Horse, there have been some great suggestions about the tactical use of the sub, PM me if you'd like me to send you direct links to some of the better suggestions. Always happy to help!

 

[Ticky009]

The final cut on Squiggle after Round 24

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

The final cut on Squiggle after Round 24

View attachment 1792477

Massive difference from last season Ticky you can see the standout teams.

 

[Millky95]

Massive difference from last season Ticky you can see the standout teams.

View attachment 1792479

Shows how s**t this year has been footy wise

Also means if we can play our best footy for 16 quarters we will win it

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Shows how s**t this year has been footy wise

Also means if we can play our best footy for 16 quarters we will win it

Then you also think what a wasted opportunity, our 2022 form would be comfortably top 2.

 

[Millky95]

Then you also think what a wasted opportunity, our 2022 form would be comfortably top 2.

I would legit only be worried by Collingwood at the MCG

 

[Ticky009]

Massive difference from last season Ticky you can see the standout teams.

This year is crazy even. If GWS had made top 4 I'd put them as my favourites vs the Dees, but Magpies & Demons have a home GF and will be very very hard to beat for any visiting team.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

The squiggle suggests a Brisbane v Melbourne grand final. Brisbane with the highest rated attack vs Melbourne with the highest rated defence. Can Brisbane continue to score at the same level during finals, will Melbourne strangle their opposition while putting points on the board (I get the sense Melbourne have an extra gear).

Giants with a strong finish to the year and sit somewhere in between Brisbane & Melbourne - can they put together a strong four weeks to take it all?

Port, Pies and Blues the next tier down. Port with the better attack but may be unable to stop their opponents, Carlton strong defensively, but probably won't have the scoring power to put a winning score 4 games in a row. Pies sit between Port & Blues with a better balance between attack & defence.

Swans have essentially been treading water this year. Swans had a fair leap in round 15 (according to squiggle) based on our win against WC (which probably says more about the squiggle algorithm than our form). However, after that leap, our position stayed fairly stagnant during our 6 match winning streak, and we actually went backwards in r23 & r24.

Saints are a poor man's Carlton in 2023, so wouldn't expect much from them.

Strange that squiggle rates Pies behind GWS, but I can understand why that's the case.

I agree Brisbane & Demons are the teams to beat this year, Brisbane have been consistent all year, and came home fairly strongly. I think they've done enough to announce themselves as contenders. Demons are favourites imo, they're proven winners, have been solid all year, and have another gear so think their defence will enable them to keep their opponents to a beatable score and if they hit form during finals we could see a repeat of 2022 where they belt teams on the way to a flag.

Given their late season form, GWS are definitely capable of making the GF. Pies can't be written off either - minor premiers and have shown they can win a tight battle or pull back a deficit.

I don't see Port winning it all, but may take a scalp or two.

Blues are pretenders, Saints beat the odds to make finals and will exit week 1.

Swans - I can't really comment without bias, but if we lose in first week, the result would have been supported by squiggle. Carlton and Collingwood (if we meet them in week 2) are both beatable, but Port, Brisbane, GWS & Melbourne would all be favourites against us (according to squiggle).

 

[DobmusEdge]

The good thing about the Melbourne game is that it wasn't necessarily a demoralizing or disheatening loss. I know they didn't have much to play for but you can't tell me there weren't going 100% in that final quarter. We were a few errant kicks or a Papley injury away from matching it with them and I think they're the best team in it this year.

In the last two rounds of 2012 we lost to hawks at home and cats away. I have heard both ROK and JPK say we came out of those loses feeling we were good enough to match it, work on some things and go again.

Similar sentiments in 2023