Prediction Round 1 2022 - Adelaide vs Fremantle, March 20, 2022

How many wins for the Crows in 2022?


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AFC979810

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You've really missed the papering over the cracks of our poor performances in 2016/17 and just gone straight to the Collective Minds blame

Yeah that was bad and is a big reason for a lot of what happened after but don't pretend for a second we didn't drop the ball badly at key times in 2016/17 which turned from a worrying trend into the norm.

Every team has bad performances in a season. In 2017 Richmond had a 70 point loss (to us) and a 60 point loss.

The fact remains we were brilliant in 2017. We finished top of the ladder and won our first two finals by 36 and 61 points. We kicked 4 goals to 2 in the first quarter of the grand final before we sh*t the bed.

There is nothing to be papered over. We were primed. Then we went full Lindy and F**** everything up more than any club has ever F**** it up.
 

AFC979810

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Reilly O'Brien was a clear best 22 player and solid contributor half way through his 5th season after a dozen games

The upcoming season is Frampton's 8th and he's not at that level.

Huge difference

Frampton has spent 2 years on our list and has played 15 games in 2 years. He is still 25.

O'Brien spent 4 years on our list for only 2 games before getting a chance as 24 year old in his 5th season and playing 18 games.

The difference is not as great as you want it to be.
 

Golumless

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Frampton has spent 2 years on our list and has played 15 games in 2 years. He is still 25.

O'Brien spent 4 years on our list for only 2 games before getting a chance as 24 year old in his 5th season and playing 18 games.

The difference is not as great as you want it to be.

Frampton also spent 5 years on Ports list, which cannot be discounted.

The difference is even greater than what Scorpus alluded too, Frampton had multiple positional switches in the last 7 years. From ruck to forward/ruck to defense. O'Brien was always locked in as the next ruck here (a notoriously slow position to develop, unlike key forward/defense, which tends to follow a more timeline).

We've had the question answered with Billy, he isn't it at this level and is destined for a fantastic SANFL career.
 
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Scorpus

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Frampton has spent 2 years on our list and has played 15 games in 2 years. He is still 25.

O'Brien spent 4 years on our list for only 2 games before getting a chance as 24 year old in his 5th season and playing 18 games.

The difference is not as great as you want it to be.
Okay so riddle me this.

What player at a similar age/seasons/games level to Frampton has gone on to be a good best 22 player at AFL level?

So a ~25 year old (or older) with ~7 seasons (or more) in the system and ~20 games experience (or less)

You're suggesting these players are worth persisting with so how good are our chances?
 

AFC979810

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Frampton also spent 5 years on Ports list, which cannot be discounted.

The difference is even greater than what Scorpus alluded too, Frampton had multiple positional switches in the last 7 years. From ruck to forward/ruck to defense. O'Brien was always locked in as the next ruck here (a notoriously slow position to develop, unlike key forward/defense, which tends to follow a more timeline).

We've had the question answered with Billy, he isn't it at this level and is destined for a fantastic SANFL career.

Absolutely it can. He was taken at pick 84. He was 18 weighed about 12 kilo's and was 200cm. He was the epitome of long term project. His Port time is irrelevant.

Now - really we have Butts and Doedee locked away as our taller defenders. IMO we have one spot left which will between McAsey, Frampton and Murray. IMO -Frampton should have as much of a chance for that spot as the other two.
 

skam85

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Absolutely it can. He was taken at pick 84. He was 18 weighed about 12 kilo's and was 200cm. He was the epitome of long term project. His Port time is irrelevant.

Now - really we have Butts and Doedee locked away as our taller defenders. IMO we have one spot left which will between McAsey, Frampton and Murray. IMO -Frampton should have as much of a chance for that spot as the other two.

Pick 84! wowie what a future star we're delisting at the end of the year.
 

Golumless

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Absolutely it can. He was taken at pick 84. He was 18 weighed about 12 kilo's and was 200cm. He was the epitome of long term project. His Port time is irrelevant.

Now - really we have Butts and Doedee locked away as our taller defenders. IMO we have one spot left which will between McAsey, Frampton and Murray. IMO -Frampton should have as much of a chance for that spot as the other two.

He was not 18 and 12 kilos 5 years later. That's 5 years of development at Port, and 5 extra years of scouting from us because we would have been following him from day dot. 5 years which already saw one positional change and had the door shut on him in what was a mediocre quality position at Port. Framptons time at Port matters because it is a key part of Framptons story at this level, especially now where we can rule out that a change of scenery sparks improvement. It's as relevant as the last two years here.

Again, you need to be willing to ignore what we learned in 2021 to have that attitude, and I hope we're smarter than that (as much as we have a rich history of being a dumb club). Because we got the answer to the question of who will be our key defenders in this rebuild last year, and we showed signs of understanding it by moving Talia on. If we're responding to what we've learned in 2021, the chances of McAsey and Frampton being a key defender here are low at best and require something going wrong in 2022. Doedee as a tall defender is certainly a question mark though as with Kelly leaving, we have an option to fit another tall in and shifting Tom over. A move that we should be making.
 

Scorpus

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He was not 18 and 12 kilos 5 years later. That's 5 years of development at Port, and 5 extra years of scouting from us because we would have been following him from day dot. 5 years which already saw one positional change and had the door shut on him in what was a mediocre quality position at Port. Framptons time at Port matters because it is a key part of Framptons story at this level, especially now where we can rule out that a change of scenery sparks improvement. It's as relevant as the last two years here.

Again, you need to be willing to ignore what we learned in 2021 to have that attitude, and I hope we're smarter than that (as much as we have a rich history of being a dumb club). Because we got the answer to the question of who will be our key defenders in this rebuild last year, and we showed signs of understanding it by moving Talia on. If we're responding to what we've learned in 2021, the chances of McAsey and Frampton being a key defender here are low at best and require something going wrong in 2022. Doedee as a tall defender is certainly a question mark though as with Kelly leaving, we have an option to fit another tall in and shifting Tom over. A move that we should be making.
Also our current coach was a coach at Port when Frampton was there. So it's more than just observing him from afar
 

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Thylacinus

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Barring injury, How many of the 5 draftees from 2020 do you all see playing round 1?

Thilthorpe, Pedlar, Cook, Berry, Rowe.

I'd be happy to predict 3, Thilthorpe and Berry for sure, and one of the other 3, but not confident in naming which one yet.

Think Rowe is fighting an uphill battle now with Rachele on the list
All are a chance. I will rate them in the following order with recovery from injury as well as others they are competing with being considerations in this ranking: 1) Thilthorpe. 2) Cook. 3) Rowe. 4) Berry. 5) Pedlar.

Fair bit of potential in this little crop!
 

hey shorty

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All are a chance. I will rate them in the following order with recovery from injury as well as others they are competing with being considerations in this ranking: 1) Thilthorpe. 2) Cook. 3) Rowe. 4) Berry. 5) Pedlar.

Fair bit of potential in this little crop!
I think Berry is a big chance, moreso than Cook. They clearly rate what both bring, but I reckon midfield will be a focus.
 

1970crow

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So if Atkins is a great player at the bottom of a good list why isn't he getting games at Gold Coast? Their list is far worse than ours in 2017. Good players in great lists should easily get games at crappy clubs

You're basically saying "he played games so it's evident he was good". No. The way he played was never conducive to high pressure matches and he consistently performed poorly in them. Merely playing games is not evident of quality

Whereas we chose to deny a player like Lyons an opportunity to excel because we preferred to wait out Thommo's retirement. Not that he wasn't a gun, but you don't go from gun to gold watch extension without becoming mediocre at some point.
 

dylan123

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Okay so riddle me this.

What player at a similar age/seasons/games level to Frampton has gone on to be a good best 22 player at AFL level?

So a ~25 year old (or older) with ~7 seasons (or more) in the system and ~20 games experience (or less)

You're suggesting these players are worth persisting with so how good are our chances?
I think the age is the one that's more important the seasons spent on a list as there are a decent chunk of taller guys that get drafted at 20 odd who aren't really ready until 25 or so (for the record, I'm not saying I expect Frampton to breakout or anything next season).

Anyways, figured I'd check out a few players that kind of came to mind to see how they stack up.

Stefan Martin - Drafted at 21 years old (2017 pre season draft), I don't really recall him making it as a serious best 22 until the 2014 season (27 years old) at Brisbane where he was insane in the ruck. That said, he'd played 62 games at that point including 19 in 2009 and 21 in 2011 (stats for the 2011 season seem decent but I don't really recall him a great deal back then).

Sam Collins - Drafted at 21 years old (2015 draft), played 14 games for Freo in two seasons before being delisted. Redrafted in 2018 draft, played 9 games in 2019 (23 games in 3 seasons, at 25 years old). Properly earned his spot as a best 22 player at 26 years old in 2020.

Sam Menegola - Drafted in 2011 by Hawks, Delisted and then drafted by Freo where he spent 2012-2014 on the list having not played a single game after 4 seasons on two lists. Delisted again before being drafted by Geelong in 2016 (24 years old) where he managed 8 games. Been best 22 since the 2017 season.

Jarrod Witts - Drafted in the 2011 draft, spent 5 seasons on Collingwood's list for 40 games before breaking going to GC in 2017 where he's since been best 22.

Pods is another that comes to mind. Only had 3 seasons on an AFL list before a 7 year gap before his 3rd crack.
 

dylan123

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All are a chance. I will rate them in the following order with recovery from injury as well as others they are competing with being considerations in this ranking: 1) Thilthorpe. 2) Cook. 3) Rowe. 4) Berry. 5) Pedlar.

Fair bit of potential in this little crop!
I'd have Berry ahead of Rowe, think there's more upside with him v Rowe. That said, it seems Rowe has had a solid pre season to date so I hope he can change my mind of him a bit.
 

1970crow

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Every team has bad performances in a season. In 2017 Richmond had a 70 point loss (to us) and a 60 point loss.

The fact remains we were brilliant in 2017. We finished top of the ladder and won our first two finals by 36 and 61 points. We kicked 4 goals to 2 in the first quarter of the grand final before we sh*t the bed.

There is nothing to be papered over. We were primed. Then we went full Lindy and F**** everything up more than any club has ever F**** it up.

you can’t ignore the fact that we came top with only 15 wins. In most years that just squeezes you into the top 4. We had some big wins but we were beaten by the same method each time.
 

radiojake

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Fun fact :
Rory Atkins has the highest winning% of any crow in history to play 100+ games

And it will be a long time before anyone knocks him off
 

Scorpus

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I think the age is the one that's more important the seasons spent on a list as there are a decent chunk of taller guys that get drafted at 20 odd who aren't really ready until 25 or so (for the record, I'm not saying I expect Frampton to breakout or anything next season).

Anyways, figured I'd check out a few players that kind of came to mind to see how they stack up.

Stefan Martin - Drafted at 21 years old (2017 pre season draft), I don't really recall him making it as a serious best 22 until the 2014 season (27 years old) at Brisbane where he was insane in the ruck. That said, he'd played 62 games at that point including 19 in 2009 and 21 in 2011 (stats for the 2011 season seem decent but I don't really recall him a great deal back then).

Sam Collins - Drafted at 21 years old (2015 draft), played 14 games for Freo in two seasons before being delisted. Redrafted in 2018 draft, played 9 games in 2019 (23 games in 3 seasons, at 25 years old). Properly earned his spot as a best 22 player at 26 years old in 2020.

Sam Menegola - Drafted in 2011 by Hawks, Delisted and then drafted by Freo where he spent 2012-2014 on the list having not played a single game after 4 seasons on two lists. Delisted again before being drafted by Geelong in 2016 (24 years old) where he managed 8 games. Been best 22 since the 2017 season.

Jarrod Witts - Drafted in the 2011 draft, spent 5 seasons on Collingwood's list for 40 games before breaking going to GC in 2017 where he's since been best 22.

Pods is another that comes to mind. Only had 3 seasons on an AFL list before a 7 year gap before his 3rd crack.

So in most of your examples the player in question was a mature age recruit who even then managed to break through to best 22 status within 6 seasons despite some being delisted multiple times. And half of them played more than double the games of Frampton before reaching that status. None have been in the AFL system for as long.

I think the amount of years in the system does matter. It shows the time between when a recruiter thinks a player is worth drafting, and when they make it. The longer the time, the slower their progression and that makes it less likely they'll make it.

Even with your examples where the player hadn't already played a decent amount of games, Collins and Menegola had showed enough in their 4th and 5th seasons (24 turning 25, and 24 years old) to become a starting player the following season. Menegola played the entire back half of the season, and Collins was a starting player in his 4th year before he was injured.

So I'm far from convinced that Frampton is on that sort of trajectory. At a similar stage in their careers, both Menegola and Collins were on a list for less time, and already had shown enough to play as best 22. Martin and Witts had played over double the games and Podsiadly was delisted.
 

dylan123

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So in most of your examples the player in question was a mature age recruit who even then managed to break through to best 22 status within 6 seasons despite some being delisted multiple times. And half of them played more than double the games of Frampton before reaching that status. None have been in the AFL system for as long.

I think the amount of years in the system does matter. It shows the time between when a recruiter thinks a player is worth drafting, and when they make it. The longer the time, the slower their progression and that makes it less likely they'll make it.

Even with your examples where the player hadn't already played a decent amount of games, Collins and Menegola had showed enough in their 4th and 5th seasons (24 turning 25, and 24 years old) to become a starting player the following season. Menegola played the entire back half of the season, and Collins was a starting player in his 4th year before he was injured.

So I'm far from convinced that Frampton is on that sort of trajectory. At a similar stage in their careers, both Menegola and Collins were on a list for less time, and already had shown enough to play as best 22. Martin and Witts had played over double the games and Podsiadly was delisted.
Yeah like I mentioned, not trying to convince anyone Frampton will make it or is on the same trajectory, just thought I'd see how other players that took some time stack up. There may be actual examples or not, nothing I could think of though outside of the above list.

Had Frampton been delisted by port for 3-4 seasons and we drafted him when we did, would that make him any more appealing right now? I don't think so as we'd look at his age first and foremost and form an opinion based off of that rather than years on an AFL list. I suppose that can help add another cross through his name but I think most weighting comes from their age.
 

Scorpus

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Yeah like I mentioned, not trying to convince anyone Frampton will make it or is on the same trajectory, just thought I'd see how other players that took some time stack up. There may be actual examples or not, nothing I could think of though outside of the above list.

Had Frampton been delisted by port for 3-4 seasons and we drafted him when we did, would that make him any more appealing right now? I don't think so as we'd look at his age first and foremost and form an opinion based off of that rather than years on an AFL list. I suppose that can help add another cross through his name but I think most weighting comes from their age.

I think if he was delisted we'd look at his SANFL form. If he was performing a class above the others (like you'd expect from a mature age recruit) then we'd go from there.

He's played a lot of SANFL over the last 4 years and while he's been good he hasn't been able to play consistently enough to dominate aside from the occasional game here and there
 

Thylacinus

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I have no problems with Frampton getting games if he shows form as a second key back and he continues to demonstrate upside in that position. However, the one the spotlight should really be on is McAsey, as he was pick six in the 2019 draft, this year will be his third season on our list and he is a big boy (198cm & 98kg) specifically targeted and recruited as a key defender.