Preview Round 19 Geelong vs Western Bulldogs Friday 29th July 7.50pm Simonds Stadium

[Willo_]

I promised the guy at ticketmaster he could wave my flag and that I don't even let my own kids wave it.

So you're the bloke who sits in front of me!!

 

[Willo_]

I have to say re: the leaving early thing

That Melbourne game it was also cold as balls, add to that we were rubbish

Who cares if people left, each to their own.

We certainly don't owe the players anything, we give them support week in week out

 

[kimodgers]

It will be interesting to see who comes out for Henderson and Smith. I enjoyed the smaller line up, and may depend on the weather. Bews was fantastic I thought - broke the lines a few times and laid some tackles. Cowan showed a bit too. Maybe one of the tall defenders will be rested for Henderson. Not sure who makes way for Smith though.

In: Henderson Smith
Out: Bartel Enright

 

[Partridge]

I have to say re: the leaving early thing

That Melbourne game it was also cold as balls, add to that we were rubbish

Who cares if people left, each to their own.

We certainly don't owe the players anything, we give them support week in week out

Precisely. Stay to the end, leave early in the first quarter. Doesn't bother me.

 

[Scottland2007]

I have to say re: the leaving early thing

That Melbourne game it was also cold as balls, add to that we were rubbish

Who cares if people left, each to their own.

We certainly don't owe the players anything, we give them support week in week out

The Melb game, it had been quite a nice day. "Pack a coat" the mrs said, "don't need one, you're crazy" I said. The sun goes down in the third, by the fourth I'm telling my five year old (who the mrs made take three jumpers, a coat, a scarf and a beanie) "if we leave now, I'll buy you a hot chocolate", no, "we'll get Maccas" no. "Please, I'm freezing.....I'll give you $10"......

 

[dazbroncos]

Sat there still the end and then some. And the minister of war and finance, at her first afl game ever, did the same. Had sun till about half time. Cost me about 75 a seat, even with membership, airline tickets from LA travel from Melbourne..

Of course, she knew not to flinch in the direction of leaving.

A loss yes but to see Boris chaired off after 300 games... Priceless

Wild horses could not have dragged me away

Go Catters

 

[candiehappy]

Paul kelly rattled plenty off. You were probably too young to realise (or too old).

I thought Paul Kelly was sensational, and I would have thought admired by everyone.

 

[Seeds]

I thought Paul Kelly was sensational, and I would have thought admired by everyone.

The cyril rioli of his times in the way the media, especially Mcavaney, fawned over him. Bigfooty would not of been kind to him. Plus he loved to go in with high elbows and was prone to a bit of off the ball sniping like Goodes.

 

[candiehappy]

The cyril rioli of his times in the way the media, especially Mcavaney, fawned over him. Bigfooty would not of been kind to him. Plus he loved to go in with high elbows and was prone to a bit of off the ball sniping like Goodes.

I think that we'll just agree to disagree and move along.

 

[TheJimmyCartel]

Out: Cowan, Lonergan (managed, rested, we're better with one less tall and Bewsy is has finally shown he has some toe, whatever...)
In: Henderson, Smith

 

[Lana]

Round 19 Geelong V Western Bulldogs Preview

The only way to start this preview is to point out the milestones being reached. I'm not sure if anyone else is aware but Enright will become the clubs record holder and Bartel is playing his 300 game. One of the more important questions facing us this week is whether there will be more Enright or Bartel face masks. I'd give Enright the slight advantage over Bartel as there are bound to be a few left over masks from his own 300th. It is sad to say we don't have a great record in the 300 game milestones but we're bound to win one eventually.

Truth be told, I've seen less of Western Bulldogs this year then I should have given that I'm writing the preview and have been locked in do so for more than 3 months so this is probably going to be a more by the numbers then provide any qualitative insight. But since we all know plenty about our own form this preview will try focus more our opponents the Western Bulldogs and how we match up against them.

Their form line:
last 5 games LWWWL

Since the Western Bulldogs lost to us in round 13 their form has been solid but not spectacular. They won a close game against Sydney with a goal on the siren, snuck over the line against Richmond, belted the Gold Coast Suns and lost to St Kilda. Throughout this season they seem to be losing players almost every week to injury, but their last match against St Kilda was particularly brutal. It is fair to say that they will be quite undermanned against us. However being pushed against the wall can often bring a fractured team together and motivate them towards a strong performance by no means can we afford to let our guard down.

Western Bulldog predicted Changes

After looking at their injury list (and their latest press release) it looks like Stringer and Dahlhaus will be named to play against us. They are optimistic about Morris but I don't see them risking it. Hamling was pulled out of their VFL match to spare him a 5 day break. Webb was named their best player at VFL level (being his 3rd time in his last 4 games) while Honeychurch has been named in the bests in all but one of his games so if they're going to promote a kid I'd assume it would be one of them. I can't tell you too much about them, the most I've seen of them was their 3 minute draft year highlights.

If they want some more maturity and leadership down back they could bring in Adcock. With the loss of another KPF they might not want Boyd doing a lot of rucking and given that Campbell isn't fit yet, Minson could get the call up but the inclusion of Stringer might mitigate this potential structural issue.

In Dahlhaus Hamling Stringer
Out Wallis Morris Redpath

FB Boyd Roberts Wood
HB Johnannisen Hamling Suckling
C Hunter Bontempelli Picken
HF Dickson Boyd Stevens
FF Smith Stringer Dunkley
Fol Roughead Liberatore Macrae
Int Dahlhaus Biggs Daniel Jong

Our possible changes
Our 2nds have run into almost dominant form in the last three weeks as we've been getting more players returning back from injury. Lang has been in our top two players in the last three weeks as a midfielder, I wouldn't want to keep him in the 2nds for much longer, while Pearsons has hit a golden vein of form to be in the bests the last three weeks. He probably won't get the call up this week but another strong game could see him break through for his debut the week after against Essendon. After quite a few sessions in the gym he is now up to 82 Kgs. I feel like S.Selwood needs to show another level of dominance at VFL level to get a call up, he is showing good signs but others have been better.

But due to the 5 day break I doubt we're going to promote anyone other than the obvious inclusions of Smith and Henderson. In theory Caddy could play but it would be better if he build up some match fitness in the 2nds. He shouldn't take long to stand out at that level and I expect him to be back at AFL level soon.

In Smith Henderson
Out Kolodjashnij(rest) Ruggles (rest)

I see Ruggles and Bews as being neck and neck for a spot in our best 22. It wouldn't hurt to give Ruggles a week off and get another week to see what Bews can do. I want to maintain our three talls in defense, I hope we use the next three weeks to give each of our KPDs a week off, it has been a long season. Cowan survives the cut because he is awesome.

FB Henderson Lonergan Bews
HB Mackie Taylor Enright
C Bartel Guthrie Duncan
HF Motlop Kersten Cockatoo
FF Menzel Hawkins McCarthy
Fol Smith Selwood Dangerfield
Int Stanley Blicavs Menegola Cowan

Some matchups

Blicavs will be sent to tag Bontempelli
Bews will play a lockdown role on Clem Smith
Lonergan on Boyd.
Taylor on Stringer (If Kolodjasnij does play he'll go to Stringer)

But my matchup of the round goes to the highly anticipated battle between our top two picks of the 2011 National draft, Kersten v Hamling. This grudge match fulfills every definition of the word epic. The rumors that come their time together at the club are startling to say the least. Kersten resented Hamling for being selected two spot ahead of him at the draft and his propensity to frequently let him know about it, while Hamling despised how Kersten took away his dream of being the hero full forward who kicks bags of goals, no matter how well Hamling did in the forward-line he was always shuttled down back when Kersten was available. By the time Hamling left the club they wouldn't even talk to each other, they were using Dale Amos as a carrying pigeon shuttling insults to each other as they glared at each other from the opposite sides of the team meeting, cafeteria or football field. The only way to stop them from fighting was to keep them apart, on more than one occasion they had to be physically separated by the playing group. I expect it to be very ugly not unlike the battle between Johnson and Baker.

Their style of play and a bunch of assorted stats, rankings and ratio

In many ways the Western Bulldogs are (at least statistically) the antithesis in the way they play while simultaneously achieving similar results. Both teams do a great job of restricting their opponents score. On average they conceded 73.24 points per game ranked 2nd, while on average we concede 73.59 points per game. Their midfield does a strong job of dominating their games as they dominate clearances and the I50 differential. The weakest part of their game is their be their ability to score. They average 87 points per game ranked 10th while we score 98 points per game ranked 5th.

Fast ball movement is the name of their game. They seek to breach their opponents defense before it can setup correctly. Centre clearances aside we're generally a lot more methodical (slow) in our ball movement. They are a high possession team averaging 423 disposals (ranked 1st in the competition). They restrict their oppositions possession to 361 disposal per game (ranked 5th) this is the highest differential in the competition. They are particularly adept as stopping the opposition from handballing (ranked 1st in the competition). I'd theorize it is so that their opposition is forced to kicked it from a poor position which would result in a turnover. We are ranked 2nd at restricting opposition possession but we seems to stop relatively more kicks (ranked 2nd) in doing so we prevent the opposition from moving the ball to an area that isn't covered by our defensive setups.

The Western bulldogs have the 2nd lowest low kick to handball ratio (adjusted for shots on goal) in the competition at 0.929. Their opposition averages a a kick to handball ratio of 1.198 the highest in the competition. There is a large contrast in how they move the ball compared to how they force their opposition to play. We have a kick to hand ball (adj.) ratio of 1.08 and our opponents average a kick to handball ratio of 1.097 nothing too interesting here.

Like us they dominate the I50 differential. They average 22.8% more I50 then their opposition, ranked 2nd in the differential. While we average 24.6% more I50s then our opposition, ranked 1st in the differential. But they need every I50 they can get their rate of converting I50 to shots on goal is poor and their rate of converting shots to goal is even worse. While our shot conversion isn't much better we do a better job of converting I50 to shots on goal.



In our round 13 match our efficiency in front of goal dwarfed theirs, in fact it was our best performance for the year. On average our shots were rated by Champion Data to be 33% easier than the Bulldogs. We significantly exceeded this value as we scored 133% more points per shot on goal then they did on the day.


While on paper their ruck division seems a little deficient, they have been dominant around the stoppages and centre bounces being ranked first over the season in the clearance differential in both categories (We are 7th and 2nd respectively). Rather than relying on a few players they have an even spread of contributors which explains their resilience in the face of large personnel losses. In our last meeting their seasonal dominance mattered little as we won both categories, lead strongly by Selwood and Dangerfield who combined for 17 Clearances.

Defensively it next to impossible to split. Both teams stop their opponents getting the ball I50, and from having scoring opportunities once I50 but when the opponents do have their shots they score goals at a high efficiency.


Note that Shot conversion in the 1st table is goals/shots on goal while score conversion is goal per score is goals/(goals+ behinds)
Scores = number of goals + behinds. Not the value on the scoreboard

Be prepared for a frustrating night as they are the top ranked team in the free kick differential (5 more per game) they win 31% more free kicks then their opponents. In recent times we have been able to improve our performance in this respect in that we are no longer ranked last in the free kick differential. We are now ranked 3rd last (-2.4 per game).

Short summary

• They win a lot of the ball, they handball, their opponents are forced to kick
• They win a lot I50s but don't convert opportunity to points on the score board well
• Their midfield works a lot better than it looks on paper. Thanks to Joel Corey.
• Their midfield protects their defense but their defense also does an excellent job but teams tend to be accurate when kicking for goal.
• Prepare to be frustrated by the umpire

Where we have the advantage

We have a massive advantage in the air. We are number 1 ranked in the contest marks (+6 per game, ratio of 1.81) and marks I50 (+6.2 per game, ratio of 1.73) differentials. While the Western Bulldogs are ranked 11th in the mark I50 (even) differential and 16th in the in the contested mark (-1.8 per game, ratio of 0.858). They conceded a mark I50 on 26.2% of I50s and they take a mark I50 on 21.3% of I50s. While we mark I50 on 26.2% of our I50s and concede a mark on just 18.9% of I50s. They aren't going to want to kick it to a contest as we like teams to do we are going to have to force them to do so. I think our players a good enough to turn their usual strength in the middle into a weakness which will disrupt their usual playing style, I expect us to win the clearances and the I50s which will put their defense under a lot of pressure, allow us to set up properly and force them wide when they the ball.

Playing the game at our home ground and on Friday night is a significant advantage. Rain would be great but even if it doesn't the conditions at the ground will be quite different from the perfect conditions they are used to under the roof at Eithiad Stadium. Similar to our match against Adelaide I expect that the conditions will slow the game down, disrupt their natural playing style and give us more time to set up our defensive structures while doing little to disrupt our own offensive game (as an aside I hope it rain all September).

I look forward to getting another look at our defensive setups, against Adelaide we kept a line of players almost at half back which prevented them from getting any fast breaks over the top into space, when they attempted to do they the found themselves out numbered and turned it over. It reminded me of something we used for a few weeks around 3/4th of the way through the 2014 season. It may just be a wet weather setup that we use at KP but it was extremely effective.

Final prediction

With us back in form, the Bulldogs injury woes and the game being at our home ground, I think we'll start strongly and outlast any resistance that they offer.

Geelong to win by 31 points

 

[PatrickBateman]

In: Henderson Smith
Out: Bartel Enright

Does that mean if we get done by 10 goals, we're allowed to leave early without being judged by pea-brained former players?

 

[catempire]

Poll added and Lana's preview to the fore.

 

[vinum coupe]

Nice write up lana. That gets a 7.4. Downgraded purely due to spelling errors. A few 's' 'a' etc missing.
Or did you do that purposely so that dogs supporters would understand the post?

 

[Partridge]

Does that mean if we get done by 10 goals, we're allowed to leave early without being judged by pea-brained former players?

Not just pea-brained former players either.

 

[Cicatriz]

I think that we'll just agree to disagree and move along.

I lived in Sydney in those days and watched Kelly's career very closely. My favourite non Geelong player from that era easily.
I genuinely can't remember him being dirty (whilst dealing with disgraceful taggers/ snippers), was as hard as Selwood, had flashes of x factor with his skills etc.

 

[Lana]

Nice write up lana. That gets a 7.4. Downgraded purely due to spelling errors. A few 's' 'a' etc missing.
Or did you do that purposely so that dogs supporters would understand the post?

Well there is a reason that newspapers have sub editors. Are you volunteering for the job?

 

[fpm84]

I reckon this is the toughest week at selection we've had all year.

Surely Henderson and Smith come straight back in, Caddy's a chance and there are cases to be made for the likes of Lang and Clark (unlikely).

Nobody who played v Crows deserves the axe let alone the inclusions of Menegola and Bews who were both relevations. McCarthy and Cockatoo aren't racking up big possession counts but I think their defensive pressure makes them both best 22 for mine.

I think we will see at least one or two players 'managed' this week. Scott has repeatedly talked about the need to enter a finals campaign with 25-28 fit and AFL-ready players so it's a good thing we're getting games into the likes of Cowan and Bews. Few people will have them in their finals 22 now, but if injuries strike in the next month we need to have players who we know can step into the team and play a role.

IN: Smith, Henderson, Caddy
OUT: Blicavs (managed), Ruggles (managed - give Bews a game as number one small defender), Cowan (omit)

 

[TheJimmyCartel]

I reckon this is the toughest week at selection we've had all year.

Surely Henderson and Smith come straight back in, Caddy's a chance and there are cases to be made for the likes of Lang and Clark (unlikely).

Nobody who played v Crows deserves the axe let alone the inclusions of Menegola and Bews who were both relevations. McCarthy and Cockatoo aren't racking up big possession counts but I think their defensive pressure makes them both best 22 for mine.

I think we will see at least one or two players 'managed' this week. Scott has repeatedly talked about the need to enter a finals campaign with 25-28 fit and AFL-ready players so it's a good thing we're getting games into the likes of Cowan and Bews. Few people will have them in their finals 22 now, but if injuries strike in the next month we need to have players who we know can step into the team and play a role.

IN: Smith, Henderson, Caddy
OUT: Blicavs (managed), Ruggles (managed - give Bews a game as number one small defender), Cowan (omit)

I wouldn't be resting Blitz this week, not with the Essendon/Lions following. That would be the time. Resting a Kolo/Domsy would make sense though with Hendo coming back in and the Dogs having a pretty small forward line.

 

[Nickoo]

Smith will come back in if fit. They will want him in the side in the run-up to finals. Henderson likewise. Tough selection issues this week.

In: Smith, Henderson, Caddy
Out: Kersten, Cowan, Bews

Stanley to spend more time up forward as a second tall, and Guthrie to spend more time in the backline with Caddy taking up his midfield role. Lang desperately unlucky unless we drop McCarthy but I don't think that will happen. Ruggles could go out instead of Bews, both deserve a spot.

I have no idea how we will fit Scott Selwood into this side.

I think they'll leave menegola in and give caddy a run in the two's. Then drop him the following week. Bring in selwood for his first game which by then will be nearly 4 weeks in the twos. Caddy cant get a go straight or it will upset team balance. Menegola will be perfect for bulldogs as they don't take a backward step in close and josh wont have his touch back which could spell danger.

So my picks are;
In: Smith, Henderson,
Out: Bews, Cowan

Bews will be back though in coming weeks as will Lang but who we wont see is my tip;
Vardy(obviously and maybe never again i suspect)
GHS this year
Clarke; he'll get another year though i reckon

Watch out if menegola does a Ruggles as well and screams to be picked by dent of form and composure under pressure. He is sooo hungry it hurts.

And on this topic I just keep saying Tommy Ruggles what a legend. Keep going Rug!! I posted after NAB cup against the bombers that he was good. I totally agree with the more knowledgeable posters on playing two mobile smalls down back.

Also I'm loving how invested Paddy is in the club. My fears were that Joel and he wouldn't get on but that doesn't seem to be an issue maybe quite the opposite.






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Nickoo]

CatsTV interviewed him at the ground at half time and he seemed pretty upbeat about an imminent return.

I heard that as well and my impression was that it was more likely VFL. I suspect it all depended on what sam did and what sam did was prove he is pretty good. Maybe better at inside work but not as damaging as Caddy can be when on the outside. Other posters reckon that he is a good kick we just didn't quite see it sat night.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Mr Blicavs]

The cyril rioli of his times in the way the media, especially Mcavaney, fawned over him. Bigfooty would not of been kind to him. Plus he loved to go in with high elbows and was prone to a bit of off the ball sniping like Goodes.

LOL ......no!!!!
Paul Kelly was a champion by any measure

 

[Wooffa]

I thought Paul Kelly was sensational, and I would have thought admired by everyone.

Great player

Nice write up lana. That gets a 7.4. Downgraded purely due to spelling errors. A few 's' 'a' etc missing.
Or did you do that purposely so that dogs supporters would understand the post?

Overall, great preview. The Bulldog's midfield works better than it looks on paper? Liberatore, Bontempelli, Hunter, Macrae, Dalhauus, Wallis (when there), Stringer (when he plays there). They are pretty fair players. To me that looks very good on paper. Just an opinion

 

[Shai]

Round 19 Geelong V Western Bulldogs Preview

The only way to start this preview is to point out the milestones being reached. I'm not sure if anyone else is aware but Enright will become the clubs record holder and Bartel is playing his 300 game. One of the more important questions facing us this week is whether there will be more Enright or Bartel face masks. I'd give Enright the slight advantage over Bartel as there are bound to be a few left over masks from his own 300th. It is sad to say we don't have a great record in the 300 game milestones but we're bound to win one eventually.

Truth be told, I've seen less of Western Bulldogs this year then I should have given that I'm writing the preview and have been locked in do so for more than 3 months so this is probably going to be a more by the numbers then provide any qualitative insight. But since we all know plenty about our own form this preview will try focus more our opponents the Western Bulldogs and how we match up against them.

Their form line:
last 5 games LWWWL

Since the Western Bulldogs lost to us in round 13 their form has been solid but not spectacular. They won a close game against Sydney with a goal on the siren, snuck over the line against Richmond, belted the Gold Coast Suns and lost to St Kilda. Throughout this season they seem to be losing players almost every week to injury, but their last match against St Kilda was particularly brutal. It is fair to say that they will be quite undermanned against us. However being pushed against the wall can often bring a fractured team together and motivate them towards a strong performance by no means can we afford to let our guard down.

Western Bulldog predicted Changes

After looking at their injury list (and their latest press release) it looks like Stringer and Dahlhaus will be named to play against us. They are optimistic about Morris but I don't see them risking it. Hamling was pulled out of their VFL match to spare him a 5 day break. Webb was named their best player at VFL level (being his 3rd time in his last 4 games) while Honeychurch has been named in the bests in all but one of his games so if they're going to promote a kid I'd assume it would be one of them. I can't tell you too much about them, the most I've seen of them was their 3 minute draft year highlights.

If they want some more maturity and leadership down back they could bring in Adcock. With the loss of another KPF they might not want Boyd doing a lot of rucking and given that Campbell isn't fit yet, Minson could get the call up but the inclusion of Stringer might mitigate this potential structural issue.

In Dahlhaus Hamling Stringer
Out Wallis Morris Redpath

FB Boyd Roberts Wood
HB Johnannisen Hamling Suckling
C Hunter Bontempelli Picken
HF Dickson Boyd Stevens
FF Smith Stringer Dunkley
Fol Roughead Liberatore Macrae
Int Dahlhaus Biggs Daniel Jong

Our possible changes
Our 2nds have run into almost dominant form in the last three weeks as we've been getting more players returning back from injury. Lang has been in our top two players in the last three weeks as a midfielder, I wouldn't want to keep him in the 2nds for much longer, while Pearsons has hit a golden vein of form to be in the bests the last three weeks. He probably won't get the call up this week but another strong game could see him break through for his debut the week after against Essendon. After quite a few sessions in the gym he is now up to 82 Kgs. I feel like S.Selwood needs to show another level of dominance at VFL level to get a call up, he is showing good signs but others have been better.

But due to the 5 day break I doubt we're going to promote anyone other than the obvious inclusions of Smith and Henderson. In theory Caddy could play but it would be better if he build up some match fitness in the 2nds. He shouldn't take long to stand out at that level and I expect him to be back at AFL level soon.

In Smith Henderson
Out Kolodjashnij(rest) Ruggles (rest)

I see Ruggles and Bews as being neck and neck for a spot in our best 22. It wouldn't hurt to give Ruggles a week off and get another week to see what Bews can do. I want to maintain our three talls in defense, I hope we use the next three weeks to give each of our KPDs a week off, it has been a long season. Cowan survives the cut because he is awesome.

FB Henderson Lonergan Bews
HB Mackie Taylor Enright
C Bartel Guthrie Duncan
HF Motlop Kersten Cockatoo
FF Menzel Hawkins McCarthy
Fol Smith Selwood Dangerfield
Int Stanley Blicavs Menegola Cowan

Some matchups

Blicavs will be sent to tag Bontempelli
Bews will play a lockdown role on Clem Smith
Lonergan on Boyd.
Taylor on Stringer (If Kolodjasnij does play he'll go to Stringer)

But my matchup of the round goes to the highly anticipated battle between our top two picks of the 2011 National draft, Kersten v Hamling. This grudge match fulfills every definition of the word epic. The rumors that come their time together at the club are startling to say the least. Kersten resented Hamling for being selected two spot ahead of him at the draft and his propensity to frequently let him know about it, while Hamling despised how Kersten took away his dream of being the hero full forward who kicks bags of goals, no matter how well Hamling did in the forward-line he was always shuttled down back when Kersten was available. By the time Hamling left the club they wouldn't even talk to each other, they were using Dale Amos as a carrying pigeon shuttling insults to each other as they glared at each other from the opposite sides of the team meeting, cafeteria or football field. The only way to stop them from fighting was to keep them apart, on more than one occasion they had to be physically separated by the playing group. I expect it to be very ugly not unlike the battle between Johnson and Baker.

Their style of play and a bunch of assorted stats, rankings and ratio

In many ways the Western Bulldogs are (at least statistically) the antithesis in the way they play while simultaneously achieving similar results. Both teams do a great job of restricting their opponents score. On average they conceded 73.24 points per game ranked 2nd, while on average we concede 73.59 points per game. Their midfield does a strong job of dominating their games as they dominate clearances and the I50 differential. The weakest part of their game is their be their ability to score. They average 87 points per game ranked 10th while we score 98 points per game ranked 5th.

Fast ball movement is the name of their game. They seek to breach their opponents defense before it can setup correctly. Centre clearances aside we're generally a lot more methodical (slow) in our ball movement. They are a high possession team averaging 423 disposals (ranked 1st in the competition). They restrict their oppositions possession to 361 disposal per game (ranked 5th) this is the highest differential in the competition. They are particularly adept as stopping the opposition from handballing (ranked 1st in the competition). I'd theorize it is so that their opposition is forced to kicked it from a poor position which would result in a turnover. We are ranked 2nd at restricting opposition possession but we seems to stop relatively more kicks (ranked 2nd) in doing so we prevent the opposition from moving the ball to an area that isn't covered by our defensive setups.

The Western bulldogs have the 2nd lowest low kick to handball ratio (adjusted for shots on goal) in the competition at 0.929. Their opposition averages a a kick to handball ratio of 1.198 the highest in the competition. There is a large contrast in how they move the ball compared to how they force their opposition to play. We have a kick to hand ball (adj.) ratio of 1.08 and our opponents average a kick to handball ratio of 1.097 nothing too interesting here.

Like us they dominate the I50 differential. They average 22.8% more I50 then their opposition, ranked 2nd in the differential. While we average 24.6% more I50s then our opposition, ranked 1st in the differential. But they need every I50 they can get their rate of converting I50 to shots on goal is poor and their rate of converting shots to goal is even worse. While our shot conversion isn't much better we do a better job of converting I50 to shots on goal.

View attachment 269580

In our round 13 match our efficiency in front of goal dwarfed theirs, in fact it was our best performance for the year. On average our shots were rated by Champion Data to be 33% easier than the Bulldogs. We significantly exceeded this value as we scored 133% more points per shot on goal then they did on the day.
View attachment 269588

While on paper their ruck division seems a little deficient, they have been dominant around the stoppages and centre bounces being ranked first over the season in the clearance differential in both categories (We are 7th and 2nd respectively). Rather than relying on a few players they have an even spread of contributors which explains their resilience in the face of large personnel losses. In our last meeting their seasonal dominance mattered little as we won both categories, lead strongly by Selwood and Dangerfield who combined for 17 Clearances.

Defensively it next to impossible to split. Both teams stop their opponents getting the ball I50, and from having scoring opportunities once I50 but when the opponents do have their shots they score goals at a high efficiency.

View attachment 269585
Note that Shot conversion in the 1st table is goals/shots on goal while score conversion is goal per score is goals/(goals+ behinds)
Scores = number of goals + behinds. Not the value on the scoreboard

Be prepared for a frustrating night as they are the top ranked team in the free kick differential (5 more per game) they win 31% more free kicks then their opponents. In recent times we have been able to improve our performance in this respect in that we are no longer ranked last in the free kick differential. We are now ranked 3rd last (-2.4 per game).

Short summary

• They win a lot of the ball, they handball, their opponents are forced to kick
• They win a lot I50s but don't convert opportunity to points on the score board well
• Their midfield works a lot better than it looks on paper. Thanks to Joel Corey.
• Their midfield protects their defense but their defense also does an excellent job but teams tend to be accurate when kicking for goal.
• Prepare to be frustrated by the umpire

Where we have the advantage

We have a massive advantage in the air. We are number 1 ranked in the contest marks (+6 per game, ratio of 1.81) and marks I50 (+6.2 per game, ratio of 1.73) differentials. While the Western Bulldogs are ranked 11th in the mark I50 (even) differential and 16th in the in the contested mark (-1.8 per game, ratio of 0.858). They conceded a mark I50 on 26.2% of I50s and they take a mark I50 on 21.3% of I50s. While we mark I50 on 26.2% of our I50s and concede a mark on just 18.9% of I50s. They aren't going to want to kick it to a contest as we like teams to do we are going to have to force them to do so. I think our players a good enough to turn their usual strength in the middle into a weakness which will disrupt their usual playing style, I expect us to win the clearances and the I50s which will put their defense under a lot of pressure, allow us to set up properly and force them wide when they the ball.

Playing the game at our home ground and on Friday night is a significant advantage. Rain would be great but even if it doesn't the conditions at the ground will be quite different from the perfect conditions they are used to under the roof at Eithiad Stadium. Similar to our match against Adelaide I expect that the conditions will slow the game down, disrupt their natural playing style and give us more time to set up our defensive structures while doing little to disrupt our own offensive game (as an aside I hope it rain all September).

I look forward to getting another look at our defensive setups, against Adelaide we kept a line of players almost at half back which prevented them from getting any fast breaks over the top into space, when they attempted to do they the found themselves out numbered and turned it over. It reminded me of something we used for a few weeks around 3/4th of the way through the 2014 season. It may just be a wet weather setup that we use at KP but it was extremely effective.

Final prediction

With us back in form, the Bulldogs injury woes and the game being at our home ground, I think we'll start strongly and outlast any resistance that they offer.

Geelong to win by 31 points

Really enjoyable piece, some of the names you've mentioned for the Dogs are significant. Quality coming back in, Stringer and Dahlhaus cover a med forward & mid position, they will miss Morris if he doesn't get up but as mentioned to Turbocat , their (Dogs) defence keeps getting under estimated and still do the job. Plenty of run from 1/2 back (and outside) which will need to be addressed.

Honeychurch is interesting, shown glimpses of quality but yet to cement a full time 22 possie, liked him last year and he seems to be developing well. Dunkley may also be in that category.

Can't afford to let Dickson (definitely a confidence player) or Picken off the leash either, as both are capable of kicking goals. I like the team you've listed and looking forward to a memorable game for both our legends and our club.

 

[Go Hoops]

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