Review Round 23 = Collingwood 100-124 Brisbane Lions

[Pie thon]

We ran 11km less than Brisbane (282km vs 271km), worst differential under McRae. 2nd worst was against Hawthorn at -10km.
Most games we keep it to within 5km of our opponents, usually in our favour. So something is off running wise.
And games at marvel against the dogs and north we ran at high speed (sprints) around 350 times, season highs. Against Brisbane we only did 236 times, close to season low.
Then against Geelong we were running hard again.
Just observations

 

[No SPIN]

Mate, if you wanna hope against hope and logic that somehow a switch will just “flick” and we suddenly turn around a 2 month steady form slump? More power to you

I’m a touch more realistic than that

There is no logic that says the Top team can’t win the flag.

You are confusing logic with, irrationality, dubious contentions, inane negativity, and presumptuous conclusions based on flawed analysis.

 

[sr36]

Mate, if you wanna hope against hope and logic that somehow a switch will just “flick” and we suddenly turn around a 2 month steady form slump? More power to you

I’m a touch more realistic than that

You've watched a team spend 2 years "flicking a switch" and turning on when it's matters. And you've concluded that it's impossible that they flick a switch and turn on when it matters.

Of course we might not win. But to consider us no chance is moronic.

 

[brysie]

I'll say this again. This has all to do with our July training load.
Designed to build fitness before the finals. We were afforded this luxury as we were comfortably on top.
Wade used to do this with the Rabbitohs and they would often lose a couple of games before finals and become eventual premiers.
Come finals time all guns blazing.
Our manic game will be back for those last few.

Teams that are either fighting for a top 4 or to stay in the 8 cannot afford to do a training load.
Hence we will be fitter at the pointy end of the season.
Players have been experiencing heavy legs after this method.

Wade and Fly will prove to be genius.

The Rabbitohs have won one flag in 2014 since 1971. I keep hearing about a July training load, and I hope the stories and speculation are true, however the impact it has had on our form and most importantly our confidence is worrying.

Our style demands confidence and for our players to take the game on. Whether it's due to tired legs, or the opposition setting up better against us, or maybe a combination, we seem to have lost our confidence and no longer look to play with dash or daring.

Some player losses on Friday night didn't help, sure. Those player losses however don't account for our poor showing against Carlton, Hawthorn or large patches of the Geelong game where we have been unable to prevent the opposition winning clearances and, maybe more concerning, to prevent the opposition from transitioning the ball from their back half to their forward line for an easy scoring shot.

 

[gouki88]

We ran 11km less than Brisbane (282km vs 271km), worst differential under McRae. 2nd worst was against Hawthorn at -10km.
Most games we keep it to within 5km of our opponents, usually in our favour. So something is off running wise.
And games at marvel against the dogs and north we ran at high speed (sprints) around 350 times, season highs. Against Brisbane we only did 236 times, close to season low.
Then against Geelong we were running hard again.
Just observations

Pretty interesting figures. I would have thought running -11km would have led to a more significant loss than 4 goals to be honest

 

[NMBB]

.........Wade and Fly will prove to be genius.

That would be glorious

We've managed to lose GFs by every means possible - now's the time to win one where there's a bit of doubt and have a big laugh looking at the sour faces in the media etc

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

You've watched a team spend 2 years "flicking a switch" and turning on when it's matters. And you've concluded that it's impossible that they flick a switch and turn on when it matters.

Of course we might not win. But to consider us no chance is moronic.

I'm not saying we're no chance. I'm saying it's highly unlikely given all the context I've provided repeatedly

Yeah, we've beat teams in a quarter or two through most of the season and I've also said that's not sustainable. 2011 has left your memory that quickly?

Some of you act like the suggestion that we've dropped off at the wrong time of the year (which, you know...is right in front of us) is some kind of outlandish suggestion. Right now there appears to be 2 camps on this forum:

Camp 1: Those who are accepting what they're seeing with their own eyes. Combined with history and statistics that ultimately says we most likely don't win the flag this year

Camp 2: Those who seem to stubbornly refuse to accept what their eyes are showing them and think we'll flick a switch once finals start

Both of these things are fine. The issue is, Camp 2 is not only living in the less realistic scenario, they're also the only ones attacking Camp 1 despite Camp 1 living more in reality as opposed to hope.

I want nothing more than to be wrong here. Deep down, I'm clinging to the same hope as all of you. The hope that maybe, just maybe we've been waiting for finals to start before we switch on. My wife is a fanatical Collingwood supporter too (wouldn't have married her otherwise) and honestly she's more like the rest of this forum. She too thinks I'm too negative. But even she's giving up hope at this point based on what she's seeing out there.

But for weeks and weeks I've been saying to her, "I'm praying that they're just waiting for finals to start before they switch on".

Anyone with functioning eyes knows that at our best, we're still the best team in the comp. We're just not currently showing any signs of being that team.

 

[sr36]

I'm not saying we're no chance. I'm saying it's highly unlikely given all the context I've provided repeatedly

Yeah, we've beat teams in a quarter or two through most of the season and I've also said that's not sustainable. 2011 has left your memory that quickly?

Some of you act like the suggestion that we've dropped off at the wrong time of the year (which, you know...is right in front of us) is some kind of outlandish suggestion. Right now there appears to be 2 camps on this forum:

Camp 1: Those who are accepting what they're seeing with their own eyes. Combined with history and statistics that ultimately says we most likely don't win the flag this year

Camp 2: Those who seem to stubbornly refuse to accept what their eyes are showing them and think we'll flick a switch once finals start

You're whole flick switching theories are contradictory.

Claim 1: All teams, IRregardless of form, flick a switch and rise to the occasion when they're playing Collingwood.

Claim 2. It's incredibly unlikely that a team can flick a switch and find form to rise to the occasion.

Everyone is accepting that we're currently playing s**t. But not everyone accepts your thesis that that form is destined to continue, as your theories are full of flaws.

This team has played the majority of their games the way we're playing the season. Fly out of the blocks, then coast along ineffectually until the game is on the line. I don't know why you'd assume that this isn't another one of our ordinary third quarters before we hit the final quarter and regain our early mojo.

Personally I think you got way ahead of yourself and thought we were much better in the first half of the year than we were and thought we were going to not have a blip in our glorious march.

If we had any of the following games over the last two months, you'd be grouping them with our losses as signs that our form is irredeemable:

R1 - 4 goals down three times - before running over the Cats
R3 - ugly grind against Richmond
R4 - pumped by Brisbane
R5 - Ugly grind against Saints
R6 - 5 goals down at 3 quarter time agianst the Dons - before we flicked a switch
R7 - Turned it on in the last quarter to snatch victory after trailing all game against Adelaide
R11 - Really patchy against North
R12 - Really patchy against WCE

But despite this not always convincing and consistent form, we kept winning. What you're viewing as a very unlikely to turn around slump, seems pretty consistent with a team whose in-game form fluctuates - until it matters - and that's been occurring for 2 years.

 

[sideswipe]

I'm not saying we're no chance. I'm saying it's highly unlikely given all the context I've provided repeatedly

Yeah, we've beat teams in a quarter or two through most of the season and I've also said that's not sustainable. 2011 has left your memory that quickly?

Some of you act like the suggestion that we've dropped off at the wrong time of the year (which, you know...is right in front of us) is some kind of outlandish suggestion. Right now there appears to be 2 camps on this forum:

Camp 1: Those who are accepting what they're seeing with their own eyes. Combined with history and statistics that ultimately says we most likely don't win the flag this year

Camp 2: Those who seem to stubbornly refuse to accept what their eyes are showing them and think we'll flick a switch once finals start

Both of these things are fine. The issue is, Camp 2 is not only living in the less realistic scenario, they're also the only ones attacking Camp 1 despite Camp 1 living more in reality as opposed to hope.

I want nothing more than to be wrong here. Deep down, I'm clinging to the same hope as all of you. The hope that maybe, just maybe we've been waiting for finals to start before we switch on. My wife is a fanatical Collingwood supporter too (wouldn't have married her otherwise) and honestly she's more like the rest of this forum. She too thinks I'm too negative. But even she's giving up hope at this point based on what she's seeing out there.

But for weeks and weeks I've been saying to her, "I'm praying that they're just waiting for finals to start before they switch on".

Anyone with functioning eyes knows that at our best, we're still the best team in the comp. We're just not currently showing any signs of being that team.

Everyone would like us to be playing better. The problem with your posts is that you won't shut up about how bad you think we are going.

Maybe step off the hamster wheel of woe. You might feel better for it.

 

[NMBB]

You're whole flick switching theories are contradictory.

Claim 1: All teams, IRregardless of form, flick a switch and rise to the occasion when they're playing Collingwood.

Claim 2. It's incredibly unlikely that a team can flick a switch and find form to rise to the occasion.

Everyone is accepting that we're currently playing s**t. But not everyone accepts your thesis that that form is destined to continue, as your theories are full of flaws.

This team has played the majority of their games the way we're playing the season. Fly out of the blocks, then coast along ineffectually until the game is on the line. I don't know why you'd assume that this isn't another one of our ordinary third quarters before we hit the final quarter and regain our early mojo.

Personally I think you got way ahead of yourself and thought we were much better in the first half of the year than we were and thought we were going to not have a blip in our glorious march.

If we had any of the following games over the last two months, you'd be grouping them with our losses as signs that our form is irredeemable:

R1 - 4 goals down three times - before running over the Cats
R3 - ugly grind against Richmond
R4 - pumped by Brisbane
R5 - Ugly grind against Saints
R6 - 5 goals down at 3 quarter time agianst the Dons - before we flicked a switch
R7 - Turned it on in the last quarter to snatch victory after trailing all game against Adelaide
R11 - Really patchy against North
R12 - Really patchy against WCE

But despite this not always convincing and consistent form, we kept winning. What you're viewing as a very unlikely to turn around slump, seems pretty consistent with a team whose in-game form fluctuates - until it matters - and that's been occurring for 2 years.

Can we compare "intra-game" switches to "inter-game" switches?

Asking for a friend

 

[sr36]

Can we compare "intra-game" switches to "inter-game" switches?

Asking for a friend

We talk about and see teams being suddenly up for a game all the time. We even predict when a team is going to flick a switch - and be on. Who didn't know that the Pies were going to flick a switch and come out firing for Bucks's last game as coach - we were bloody awful that year, yet flicked a switch and rolled the eventual Premiers? A team's first game with new coach after a sacking - switch flicked, Cousin of Daicos's claim that teams are alsways on against Collingwood - switch flicked, etc...

I think everyone is kidding themselves if they think it's really unlikely that Collingwood will flick a switch when the finals come around. Switch flicking happens all the time and this team have shown themselves to be switch flicking experts.

Sure it might not happen. Seems pretty likely to me though.

 

[NMBB]

We talk about and see teams being suddenly up for a game all the time. We even predict when a team is going to flick a switch - and be on. Who didn't know that the Pies were going to flick a switch and come out firing for Bucks's last game as coach - we were bloody awful that year, yet flicked a switch and rolled the eventual Premiers? A team's first game with new coach after a sacking - switch flicked, Cousin of Daicos's claim that teams are alsways on against Collingwood - switch flicked, etc...

I think everyone is kidding themselves if they think it's really unlikely that Collingwood will flick a switch when the finals come around. Switch flicking happens all the time and this team have shown themselves to be switch flicking experts.

Sure it might not happen. Seems pretty likely to me though.

Nice flicking expose

 

[gouki88]

You're whole flick switching theories are contradictory.

Claim 1: All teams, IRregardless of form, flick a switch and rise to the occasion when they're playing Collingwood.

Claim 2. It's incredibly unlikely that a team can flick a switch and find form to rise to the occasion.

Everyone is accepting that we're currently playing s**t. But not everyone accepts your thesis that that form is destined to continue, as your theories are full of flaws.

This team has played the majority of their games the way we're playing the season. Fly out of the blocks, then coast along ineffectually until the game is on the line. I don't know why you'd assume that this isn't another one of our ordinary third quarters before we hit the final quarter and regain our early mojo.

Personally I think you got way ahead of yourself and thought we were much better in the first half of the year than we were and thought we were going to not have a blip in our glorious march.

If we had any of the following games over the last two months, you'd be grouping them with our losses as signs that our form is irredeemable:

R1 - 4 goals down three times - before running over the Cats
R3 - ugly grind against Richmond
R4 - pumped by Brisbane
R5 - Ugly grind against Saints
R6 - 5 goals down at 3 quarter time agianst the Dons - before we flicked a switch
R7 - Turned it on in the last quarter to snatch victory after trailing all game against Adelaide
R11 - Really patchy against North
R12 - Really patchy against WCE

But despite this not always convincing and consistent form, we kept winning. What you're viewing as a very unlikely to turn around slump, seems pretty consistent with a team whose in-game form fluctuates - until it matters - and that's been occurring for 2 years.

A lot of his posts are contradictory. Bends over backwards to spread doom and gloom

 

[Kirby]

A lot of his posts are contradictory. Bends over backwards to spread doom and gloom

He's bending over backwards and looking up his own backside.

 

[Hotpiescoldbeers]

Pretty interesting figures. I would have thought running -11km would have led to a more significant loss than 4 goals to be honest

Have we ramped up training loads to play fatigued to get ready for finals? Like we did in the pre season?

 

[Maggie5]

You've watched a team spend 2 years "flicking a switch" and turning on when it's matters. And you've concluded that it's impossible that they flick a switch and turn on when it matters.

Of course we might not win. But to consider us no chance is moronic.

I don't think it is impossible but surely you would concede that 4 (1 twice) teams have worked out our system. Port Adelaide nearly did it and an umpiring decision gave us the game against Adelaide. I previously mentioned 5 but I think 6 have worked out our game.

Can they do it again? Not sure.

I would rather not rely on flicking a switch.

I don't consider us a no chance but wish I had seen signs that the selection/coaching panel have something up their sleeve.

 

[Kes1984]

We ran 11km less than Brisbane (282km vs 271km), worst differential under McRae. 2nd worst was against Hawthorn at -10km.
Most games we keep it to within 5km of our opponents, usually in our favour. So something is off running wise.
And games at marvel against the dogs and north we ran at high speed (sprints) around 350 times, season highs. Against Brisbane we only did 236 times, close to season low.
Then against Geelong we were running hard again.
Just observations

that is interesting - wonder if it's a headspace thing - not able to push themselves when top 4 sealed and then top 2.
Geelong game helped get top two.

Or do we have some fitness issues - is it the loading theory? So many questions really, but some of these stats - and those they showed on ON THE COUCH this week, are definitely concerning.

We've been two different teams before and after the BYE really. Let's hope the other team kicks in again after the pre finals BYE!

 

[Vicky Park]

We talk about and see teams being suddenly up for a game all the time. We even predict when a team is going to flick a switch - and be on. Who didn't know that the Pies were going to flick a switch and come out firing for Bucks's last game as coach - we were bloody awful that year, yet flicked a switch and rolled the eventual Premiers? A team's first game with new coach after a sacking - switch flicked, Cousin of Daicos's claim that teams are alsways on against Collingwood - switch flicked, etc...

I think everyone is kidding themselves if they think it's really unlikely that Collingwood will flick a switch when the finals come around. Switch flicking happens all the time and this team have shown themselves to be switch flicking experts.

Sure it might not happen. Seems pretty likely to me though.

‘Switch flicking’ is really hard to say quickly. Hopefully harder to say than to
do.

 

[sr36]

We've been two different teams before and after the BYE really. Let's hope the other team kicks in again after the pre finals BYE!

We haven't really been two different teams after the bye. Heaps of those first half of the season wins were won through bursts at the beginning and the end when we were on. This has been our quarter 2 and 3 form all season, zone conceding territory, and often losing those quarters on the scoreboard.

Our defensive 50 has struggled the last couple of weeks - since Moore was injured and we haven't had the up quarters where we turned it on at the beginning and the end of games to win the game - that's been the real difference.

Perhaps we've been worked out, but seems more likely to me that we're just less motivated and aren't hitting the peaks within games that we were. Either way, we just have to be patient, as we won't find out until September.

I personally think it's going to get ugly quickly for teams who go into a high pressure final against a pumped up Collingwood with a plan to calmly chip kick their way through our zone, but only time will tell.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

We haven't really been two different teams after the bye. Heaps of those first half of the season wins were won through bursts at the beginning and the end when we were on. This has been our quarter 2 and 3 form all season, zone conceding territory, and often losing those quarters on the scoreboard.

Our defensive 50 has struggled the last couple of weeks - since Moore was injured and we haven't had the up quarters where we turned it on at the beginning and the end of games to win the game - that's been the real difference.

Perhaps we've been worked out, but seems more likely to me that we're just less motivated and aren't hitting the peaks within games that we were. Either way, we just have to be patient, as we won't find out until September.

I personally think it's going to get ugly quickly for teams who go into a high pressure final against a pumped up Collingwood with a plan to calmly chip kick their way through our zone, but only time will tell.

100%

If we do manage to turn that pressure back on and go into finals with a renewed zest for the contest, I wouldn't expect anyone to beat us. Let alone:

Melbourne - we're their bogey side
Brisbane - Can't win at the G
Port - Beat them twice already

Having said that, you may want to go and watch those earlier season games. We were pretty different early on.

The Geelong game? We pumped them from start to finish. Don't let the scoreboard flatter them. They kicked 16.1 lol which completely masked what really happened

Port? Pumped them

Richmond? again, pumped them in general play and simply kicked horribly for goal

Brisbane? Despite not playing great, we had more scoring shots and inside 50s. Had we kicked straight, would have won that game too

In the first (just under) half or so of the season we visibly looked a level above the rest of the comp. For me that sheen started to wear off with the North game and got progressively worse from there. Despite the wins.

 

[Kes1984]

We haven't really been two different teams after the bye. Heaps of those first half of the season wins were won through bursts at the beginning and the end when we were on. This has been our quarter 2 and 3 form all season, zone conceding territory, and often losing those quarters on the scoreboard.

Our defensive 50 has struggled the last couple of weeks - since Moore was injured and we haven't had the up quarters where we turned it on at the beginning and the end of games to win the game - that's been the real difference.

Perhaps we've been worked out, but seems more likely to me that we're just less motivated and aren't hitting the peaks within games that we were. Either way, we just have to be patient, as we won't find out until September.

I personally think it's going to get ugly quickly for teams who go into a high pressure final against a pumped up Collingwood with a plan to calmly chip kick their way through our zone, but only time will tell.

Moore struggled for two games before he was injured too. Our stats pre bye and post bye are very different. DeGoey is part of it too I think. He missed those games around the bye, and hasn't quite been able to recapture his pre suspension form.

 

[brysie]

I don't think it is impossible but surely you would concede that 4 (1 twice) teams have worked out our system. Port Adelaide nearly did it and an umpiring decision gave us the game against Adelaide. I previously mentioned 5 but I think 6 have worked out our game.

Can they do it again? Not sure.

I would rather not rely on flicking a switch.

I don't consider us a no chance but wish I had seen signs that the selection/coaching panel have something up their sleeve.

One thing that cannot be discounted either is that the selection/coaching panel may or might have had something up their sleeve, including increased training loads etc., however the recent spate of injuries has impacted those plans.

Whether new plans have been, or are being, formulated is also a relevant consideration. McRae spoke after the Brisbane game about tightening our defence across the entire ground - to me the coaching staff are aware of the deficiencies, whether they can compensate for them or overcome though will only be known in week 1 of the finals at the earliest.

I'm hoping we meet Melbourne week 1 as this is likely to be the acid test - that's not to say we can't lose to anyone else if we beat Melbourne, but their system and their team are likely to be the most consistent and experienced in this finals series.

 

[sr36]

100%

If we do manage to turn that pressure back on and go into finals with a renewed zest for the contest, I wouldn't expect anyone to beat us. Let alone:

Melbourne - we're their bogey side
Brisbane - Can't win at the G
Port - Beat them twice already

Having said that, you may want to go and watch those earlier season games. We were pretty different early on.

The Geelong game? We pumped them from start to finish. Don't let the scoreboard flatter them. They kicked 16.1 lol which completely masked what really happened

Port? Pumped them

Richmond? again, pumped them in general play and simply kicked horribly for goal

Brisbane? Despite not playing great, we had more scoring shots and inside 50s. Had we kicked straight, would have won that game too

In the first (just under) half or so of the season we visibly looked a level above the rest of the comp. For me that sheen started to wear off with the North game and got progressively worse from there. Despite the wins.

Glad you're beginning to sound a bit more hopeful.

I persnoally think you read too much into the first half of the season aura and also too much into our recent slump. Much of that aura was built off that Port game, where we were electric. But I wouldn't read too much into that game. At that stage of the season, Port hadn't realised that you've got to protect the corridor against us. We were corridor side of our opponents all game and just lined up through the corridor to recieve handballs and run it straight up the guts whenever we got the footy. That game wasn't reflective of the majority of footy we played in the first half of the year.

We've switched on and off all year. When we're off, we're pretty pedestrian, but when we're on, we play great footy and know how to win. And until the last month we were able to switch on enough at the start and end to win virtually every week. Basically, I think our game plan is so intensity reliant that it does't stack up when we're flat but is very effective when our energy is up.

 

[Wattlebird]

At least we can use the injury excuse if everything comes crashing down next month..

p.s
i‘m not scared, you are!!1!

 

[Pie thon]

Have we ramped up training loads to play fatigued to get ready for finals? Like we did in the pre season?

In last year's finals series we ran slightly less than what we did during the home and away series against Sydney and Geelong. Finals might create more stoppages which might be the main factor for that. SO I wouldn't ascribe training load as a reason.
Hunger is definitely a major factor.