Roast St Kilda in no mans land

[Freomaniac]

The Saints haters out in force after one bad loss, write us off at your peril.

Blame the umpires lol

 

[Freomaniac]

The Saints haters out in force after one bad loss, write us off at your peril.

Blame the umpires lol

 

[theGav56]

6 of remaining 8 games against teams in the eight.

One of the games against teams outside the 8 is a team that beat them by 110 last year.

Makes a lot of those games doubly valuable if they win.

 

[johndemonic]

Remaining games

I would predict

Sydney (SCG) loss, although 2021 lost by 9 SCG, won by 29 Marvel so I think this will be close

Carl 50/50

Freo- (marvel) W. We already beat them in Perth so I'll back us

Dogs 50/50

WC (Perth) W

Haw (Marvel) W

Geelong (Geelong) L

Bris (Marvel) 50/50

Sydney (Marvel) 50/50

So. Win the 3 games I expect us to win. Lose the 2. Leaves 4 50/50 games. Win 2 from 4, definitely make finals (13 wins).

Alternatively you could say both Sydney games were 50/50 and Freo, that leaves 2 wins (WC and Haw) 1 loss (Geelong), and needing 3 from 6 games that are close to 50/50

If we stay healthy I think we'll still make it

Look objectively at Freo's form line and you cannot possibly pencil that in as a W, at best its 50/50 - just like the Bris game, but I'm learning more towards it being a matchup comparable with Sydney Ie Freo probably win by 10 points and you split the season 1/1. They will be gunning for top 2/4 and have the gameplan and maturity to pull off an away win to get it done. They've improved far more than the Saints, since your first meeting. You got lucky and met them at a time when they weren't humming. 12 to 12.5 wins. Miss out on the 8 on percentage. Probably to the Dogs. You land pick 11 and stay in no mans land. Ratten, Hill & Roughhead laugh all the way to the bank.

 

[VinnieB]

Remaining games

I would predict

Sydney (SCG) loss, although 2021 lost by 9 SCG, won by 29 Marvel so I think this will be close

Carl 50/50

Freo- (marvel) W. We already beat them in Perth so I'll back us

Dogs 50/50

WC (Perth) W

Haw (Marvel) W

Geelong (Geelong) L

Bris (Marvel) 50/50

Sydney (Marvel) 50/50

So. Win the 3 games I expect us to win. Lose the 2. Leaves 4 50/50 games. Win 2 from 4, definitely make finals (13 wins).

Alternatively you could say both Sydney games were 50/50 and Freo, that leaves 2 wins (WC and Haw) 1 loss (Geelong), and needing 3 from 6 games that are close to 50/50

If we stay healthy I think we'll still make it

I'd be surprised if you beat Hawthorn and Freo.
All the 50/50 games I would have 70/30 in the oppositions' favour.

 

[Johnny Karate]

Terrible loss on Friday night but I wouldn’t write them off completely. They looked knackered against the Lions and were off on Friday. Getting Steele back will help.

 

[lewdogs]

Our season is at a crossroads over the next two weeks. It's that tight at the top, in two weeks time we could be 4th or 10th.

 

[Veer Right]

I'd be surprised if you beat Hawthorn and Freo.
All the 50/50 games I would have 70/30 in the oppositions' favour.

Amazing how the pies won a game since the West Coast loss at HOME....

Or when you were as putrid as were this week when you gave nothing against the bulldogs...

Time to remove head from ass, no?

 

[LoungeLizard]

I'm gunna say St.Kilda may not win another game, only because this guy above cracks the sads when you don't pick them.

 

[SA HAWK]

Tough draw i think they will miss the 8.

 

[PJays]

I'd be surprised if you beat Hawthorn and Freo.
All the 50/50 games I would have 70/30 in the oppositions' favour.

You'd be surprised if we beat a bottom 4 team on our home ground, a team who we smashed by 12 goals on their home ground?

Right

Carlton is 9-4, we're 8-5, almost identical percentage but they've had an easier fixture. So that's definitely a 50/50 one. They've had worse injuries so if they have a stronger team by then, they might be favourites but only slightly

Dogs are starting to improve after a slow start, they smashed us last year but we beat them twice in 2020 including a final

Sydney we've won 2 of the last 3, by 53 and 29, and the loss by 9

Freo has travelled well this year (road wins vs Melbourne and Geelong) but that's a small sample size. On face value, at Marvel that's a 50/50

Much depends on St Kildas personnel. The record is crystal clear over the past 3 years- when St Kilda has Ryder and Marshall they're pretty formidable (and King's barely missed a game in that time. It's those 3 together that give us certain structural advantages vs almost anyone). Howard and Wilkie important too, as we lack backline size and no one else we have can compete like those two

I'd rather face a tough fixture with those guys healthy than an easy fixture with 2 or 3 of them missing. So much will depend on our ongoing injury situation. If we stay pretty healthy I'll back us for the 13 wins

 

[VinnieB]

Amazing how the pies won a game since the West Coast loss at HOME....

Or when you were as putrid as were this week when you gave nothing against the bulldogs...

Time to remove head from ass, no?

You seem upset.

Regardless of the Pies, I'm commenting on where I see the Saints. Fact is, I don't think you are that good to suggest you are 50/50 v every reasonably good team and expect to beat Freo.

Hope you have a better day.

 

[VinnieB]

You'd be surprised if we beat a bottom 4 team on our home ground, a team who we smashed by 12 goals on their home ground?

Right

Carlton is 9-4, we're 8-5, almost identical percentage but they've had an easier fixture. So that's definitely a 50/50 one. They've had worse injuries so if they have a stronger team by then, they might be favourites but only slightly

Dogs are starting to improve after a slow start, they smashed us last year but we beat them twice in 2020 including a final

Sydney we've won 2 of the last 3, by 53 and 29, and the loss by 9

Freo has travelled well this year (road wins vs Melbourne and Geelong) but that's a small sample size. On face value, at Marvel that's a 50/50

Much depends on St Kildas personnel. The record is crystal clear over the past 3 years- when St Kilda has Ryder and Marshall they're pretty formidable (and King's barely missed a game in that time. It's those 3 together that give us certain structural advantages vs almost anyone). Howard and Wilkie important too, as we lack backline size and no one else we have can compete like those two

I'd rather face a tough fixture with those guys healthy than an easy fixture with 2 or 3 of them missing. So much will depend on our ongoing injury situation. If we stay pretty healthy I'll back us for the 13 wins

Did Marshall, Ryder and King play against Essendon? Or Brisbane?

 

[PJays]

I will add one more comment to this thread, that was St Kilda's worst game for the year

We were due for an off game, and coming off a 6 day break after losing in Queensland with 3 men down was not a completely surprising time to look off the pace

I wouldn't think this will snowball into a massive losing streak

Sport observers have recency bias and overrate the importance of recent form

The relevant form line is 2020-2022, as we've had a pretty consistent team over that period

eg Ryder and Marshall ruck combo. King and Membrey anchoring the forward line. Butler and Higgins the small forwards (Higgins since 2021). Howard and Wilkie anchoring the back line. Steele leading the midfield. Jones, Ross, Hill, Sinclair. Crouch (2021). All consistent contributors. Ratten in the coaches box

Sinclair has improved but the main difference comparing 2021 to 2022 is Gresham's return. He's been excellent this year, probably his best season, after missing most of 2020 and 2021. Pace, flair, match winning ability, goal sense Also Ryder and Marshall have remained healthy. They both missed half of 2021 (Ryder missed 10, Marshall missed 9 and left early in 2 others). The others rucks have been spuds

With Ryder, Marshall, Gresham all there, the 2020-2022 form line suggests to me the Saints will recover from this week. The first half of 2022 was not the anomaly, Friday night was the anomaly. Based on 2020-2022

2020 made finals and won a final. 2021 missed finals by 1 game and % with the hardest fixture in the comp, after missing Gresham (who has now reminded everyone what a gun he is), Ryder and Marshall missing half the year. Those are 3 of the Saints most valuable players

No reason for panic stations based on one bad game

 

[projectv]

We're going to have to play out of our skins to finish in the top four now, pretty unlikely.

Our run home is really tough, we could still make the eight but we're a step below the best sides in the comp right now.

 

[projectv]

Did Marshall, Ryder and King play against Essendon? Or Brisbane?

The problem has been, and still is, our midfield. We have great ruck and key position players, but our inability to link them together is what costs us games.

 

[Wojcinski]

The problem has been, and still is, our midfield. We have great ruck and key position players, but our inability to link them together is what costs us games.

just gotta figure out a way to clone several Jack Steele's

 

[projectv]

just gotta figure out a way to clone several Jack Steele's

Absolutely. He's a jet, but he can't do it by himself. When he's missing we don't have much else to fall back on.

 

[Mesc]

The Saints haters out in force after one bad loss, write us off at your peril.

 

[PJays]

I'd rather face a tough fixture with those guys healthy than an easy fixture with 2 or 3 of them missing. So much will depend on our ongoing injury situation. If we stay pretty healthy I'll back us for the 13 wins

Interestingly though, if you look at the ladder, St Kilda could lose to Sydney and quite possibly drop to 10th despite having an 8-6 record

This is due to the utter ineptitude of North and West Coast this year. It's unusual having 2 teams sitting 1-12, which leads to the extraordinary situation of an 8-5 team sitting 9th (Collingwood)

Personally I think Essendon (3-9), West Coast and North will win more games on the back half than the front half, which will even this up slightly, but you certainly wouldn't be banking on 12-10 making the 8 this year

This year is looking more like 2018 when 4 teams went 12-10 and all missed the 8, with 8th going 13-9

It would be historically absolutely extraordinary for someone to finish 13-9 and miss the 8 but it's not impossible

 

[CholEstrol]

Feel a bit sorry for Ratten. Saints are going to plummet in a big way.

 

[Heaps of fun]

Bump.

 

[mattwa]

So are we going to acknowledge that everything opposition supporters was accurate?

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

In the middle of a minefield pinned by snipers atm…

Coach or player problem?

 

[Substance]

How do we define no mans land? Saints have been rebuilding for 11 years, still looks like a lot of drafting/trading has to go right before they challenge.