Recommitted Tim Kelly [requested a trade to West Coast]

[Kwality]

I guess it will come down to what satisfies TK ... and what satisfies geelong. Is Freo an option ?

if they are on the Kelly radar, Hill is the pea.

 

[shooshka]

I agree the Suns wont take him in the ND before WCE but Freo would. Hawthorn are also a club that would and would back in their retention record imo and i can think of a couple of other R1 clubs that would imo. The biggest issue for Kelly is that he has no certainty there...any club that wants him cab just live trade for the pick before WCEs pick and there is nothing he or WCE can do. I would suggest they are worried re this-why would you get your manager if Geelong would do a deal with yearly out clauses if you think you can get home via this years draft? Thered be no need to.

Absent the draft the only way Geelong trade him for WCEs 2 late R1s is if Freo have no earlier picks at the time. And can you see Freo trading out pick 6 plus whatever they get for Hill? I cant.

I actually think theres a lot of goodwill between Geelong and WCE i just cant see how WCE can come up with the pieces required to get Geelong to deal.

The thing with live trading is that all teams can do it.

Whilst I think there is 0% chance he ends up in the draft (surely one of Geelong, wc or Freo can satisfy his and/or Geelongs needs) theoretically I think it would be easier for wc to live trade for a high pick (3/4/5) than a quality player (TK). Teams are much happier to use points in those scenarios (where as we saw last year, the equivalent of pick 2 in points is not rated as equal to pick 2 by either club).

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[Pure_Ownage]

The thing with live trading is that all teams can do it.

Whilst I think there is 0% chance he ends up in the draft (surely one of Geelong, wc or Freo can satisfy his and/or Geelongs needs) theoretically I think it would be easier for wc to live trade for a high pick (3/4/5) than a quality player (TK). Teams are much happier to use points in those scenarios (where as we saw last year, the equivalent of pick 2 in points is not rated as equal to pick 2 by either club).

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Yes and no. I agree all teams can do it and he probably wont end up there. But your scenario is only when a team has a high end academy player. Eventhen top 5 picks cost a premium and clubs willbe wary after the mistake carlton made. If Adelaide say auction pick 3 i dont even think 12 +13 from gws would be enough for them to do it so your 2 late R1s certainly wont be.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Wells is an astute judge of football talent. He was trying to get Brander in on a trade for a reason.

The Cat posters are now trying to devalue Brander based on the first 2 years of a developing tall. I suspect Wells will be back asking for Brander and I hope we stay firm, if you are looking for a Brander comparison - this Nick Riewoldt. He had a massive tank which is why he is being developed at WAFL as a wing but this is an interim step not a final role. He also spent the second half of 2018 at CHB.

West Coast has not managed his 3 games at AFL very well hence the decision to keep him at WAFL. I have watched a number of his games so the comments made selling him short are about as relevant as boozy camp fire talk at 2 o’clock in the morning.

My comments are admittedly based on not having seen him much but the Nick Riewoldt comparison is surely a massive stretch. Reiwoldt polled 11 Brownlow votes in his second year, in which he played 22 matches. He's a shot at being a player but you can't deny he isn't that yet

 

[West World]

I agree the Suns wont take him in the ND before WCE but Freo would. Hawthorn are also a club that would and would back in their retention record imo and i can think of a couple of other R1 clubs that would imo. The biggest issue for Kelly is that he has no certainty there...any club that wants him cab just live trade for the pick before WCEs pick and there is nothing he or WCE can do. I would suggest they are worried re this-why would you get your manager if Geelong would do a deal with yearly out clauses if you think you can get home via this years draft? Thered be no need to.

Absent the draft the only way Geelong trade him for WCEs 2 late R1s is if Freo have no earlier picks at the time. And can you see Freo trading out pick 6 plus whatever they get for Hill? I cant.

I actually think theres a lot of goodwill between Geelong and WCE i just cant see how WCE can come up with the pieces required to get Geelong to deal.

To be honest reading "I just cant see how the Eagles come up with the peices" is one of the most frustrating things I continue to read on here. And Im am being very polite saying that as IMO its total BS.

Eagles weill hold a pick between 16-18 plus the Swans 2nd around pick 22 PLUS their 2019 2nd PLUS their 2020 1st PLUS players such as Petrucelle and Brander should they be need to either sweeten the deal or chase a pick upgrade with.

Giants will trade the Essendon 1st they hold due to Green.

Saints will likely trade their 1st as they have no other picks until the 3rd or 4th rounds and are looking at players to trade in.

Bulldogs also looking for 2020 picks to pay for academy kids.

There are far more teams this trade period willing to trade picks than last season and the Eagles have two 1sts and 3 2nd round picks to play with and players if needed.

Its not difficult at all to see then gaining what is needed for a reasonable request.

If Wells demands two top 10 picks well he can go talk to Freo and let them sell the farm and pay massive overs.

 

[West World]

A side that can't buy or develop a ready to go mid suddenly has one put his hand up for the draft, where contractually he is going to the club that picks him. If they don't select him they need to sack the list manager.

A list manager who blows a top 3 pick on a player with family issues who does not want to play anywhere but Perth should and would be sacked.

What do you imagine Kelly's reaction would be if the Suns drafted him against his express wishes. Sure contractually he would be required to phyically turn up. But mentally he would be mighty unhappy. And that is the understatement of the year.

The Suns will be doing massive due diligence on every draftee due to their poor retention rates. And you seriously suggest they would ignor every indicator screaming out " flight risk" and "mental health risk"?

What you are suggesting would be massively counter productive and a waste of time and a top 5 pick.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

To be honest reading "I just cant see how the Eagles come up with the peices" is one of the most frustrating things I continue to read on here. And Im am being very polite saying that as IMO its total BS.

Eagles weill hold a pick between 16-18 plus the Swans 2nd around pick 22 PLUS their 2019 2nd PLUS their 2020 1st PLUS players such as Petrucelle and Brander should they be need to either sweeten the deal or chase a pick upgrade with.

Giants will trade the Essendon 1st they hold due to Green.

Saints will likely trade their 1st as they have no other picks until the 3rd or 4th rounds and are looking at players to trade in.

Bulldogs also looking for 2020 picks to pay for academy kids.

There are far more teams this trade period willing to trade picks than last season and the Eagles have two 1sts and 3 2nd round picks to play with and players if needed.

Its not difficult at all to see then gaining what is needed for a reasonable request.

If Wells demands two top 10 picks well he can go talk to Freo and let them sell the farm and pay massive overs.

Pick 16 + 16 doesnt carry much weight when your biggest list need is a kpf its much easier to get that with pick 6 (see King last year and many other examples) even though 16 + 16 is more DVI points..points matter little. 6 also carries more weight if Geelong are going to trade for an A grader.

GWS will be trading up not down so they wont work for you.
St Kilda might but they will want more than 16 + 16 for their pick. They are more likely to trade out players for picks.
Bulldogs may trade 2020 1st but we will likely want a 19 R1 over a 20 R1 and again you have the same issue of having enough capital to close that deal?
Adelaide wont give you 3 for 16 16 and 22.
Where will you get a top 6 pick from? Realistically you wont.
None of the players you will offer up will have enough currency to get that pick or will be likely to be that appealing to Geelong.

The reality is if Freo offer 6 (which they are likely to as they will want to know whether they can get a replacement player before they decide whether to trade B Hill) then Geelong will only trade him to WCE for any of the picks you currently hold if a) they think Kelly will do a Luke Ball (which i think is unlikely) or b) Freo have already traded 6 to another club. While that pick is in play you are very unlikely to get that done, im not sure what about that you are struggling to see.

 

[West World]

Pick 16 + 16 doesnt carry much weight when your biggest list need is a kpf its much easier to get that with pick 6 (see King last year and many other examples) even though 16 + 16 is more DVI points..points matter little. 6 also carries more weight if Geelong are going to trade for an A grader.

GWS will be trading up not down so they wont work for you.
St Kilda might but they will want more than 16 + 16 for their pick. They are more likely to trade out players for picks.
Bulldogs may trade 2020 1st but we will likely want a 19 R1 over a 20 R1 and again you have the same issue of having enough capital to close that deal?
Adelaide wont give you 3 for 16 16 and 22.
Where will you get a top 6 pick from? Realistically you wont.

The reality is if Freo offer 6 (which they are likely to as they will want to know whether they can get a replacement player before they decide whether to trade B Hill) then Geelong will only trade him to WCE for any of the picks you currently hold if a) they think Kelly will do a Luke Ball (which i think is unlikely) or b) Freo have already traded 6 to another club. While that pick is in play you are very unlikely to get that done, im not sure what about that you are struggling to see.

Do you know what pick upgrades are?

Because you seem to be totally ignoring them.

What would pick 16 plus another pick or player get the Eagles?

What would picks 18 plus 22 net?

22 plus the Eagles 2020 1st?

The Eagles have a lot of options with picks and potentially players.

As for Freo the player needs to agree. They are a basket case. AFLPA investigating their medical program after player manager raised concerns from a group of players at Freo he mqnagers, players getting released in season, both Hills looking at leaving, Landon as well, assistant coaches being let go, the senior coach on shakey ground and at board level the pressure is on.

The only reason a player would nominate Freo is $$$$$ and only $$$$$. Which is great for the Eagles because you want team first players not selfish money grabbers.

 

[Clems Knee]

Do you know what pick upgrades are?

Because you seem to be totally ignoring them.

What would pick 16 plus another pick or player get the Eagles?

What would picks 18 plus 22 net?

22 plus the Eagles 2020 1st?

The Eagles have a lot of options with picks and potentially players.

As for Freo the player needs to agree. They are a basket case. AFLPA investigating their medical program after player manager raised concerns from a group of players at Freo he mqnagers, players getting released in season, both Hills looking at leaving, Landon as well, assistant coaches being let go, the senior coach on shakey ground and at board level the pressure is on.

The only reason a player would nominate Freo is $$$$$ and only $$$$$. Which is great for the Eagles because you want team first players not selfish money grabbers.

This is untrue. You demean yourself by repeating demonstrable falsehoods.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Do you know what pick upgrades are?

Because you seem to be totally ignoring them.

What would pick 16 plus another pick or player get the Eagles?

What would picks 18 plus 22 net?

22 plus the Eagles 2020 1st?

The Eagles have a lot of options with picks and potentially players.

As for Freo the player needs to agree. They are a basket case. AFLPA investigating their medical program after player manager raised concerns from a group of players at Freo he mqnagers, players getting released in season, both Hills looking at leaving, Landon as well, assistant coaches being let go, the senior coach on shakey ground and at board level the pressure is on.

The only reason a player would nominate Freo is $$$$$ and only $$$$$. Which is great for the Eagles because you want team first players not selfish money grabbers.

Tell me when was the last time a club traded a top 6 pick for 2 late 1sts and a 2nd? There are basically no examples (excluding academy situations which doesnt really apply this year) because clubs base place a premium on trading top end picks for lower picks. Which is why you will struggle to get this deal done.

I agree on the Freo part of your post up to a point.

 

[JackOutback]

I remember when we lost a midfield gun and had to be happy with an untested, developing tall who was highly rated. Turned out alright

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I remember when we lost a midfield gun and had to be happy with an untested, developing tall who was highly rated. Turned out alright

You got picks 3 20 and Kennedy for Judd and 46. Not quite just Kennedy.

 

[JackOutback]

You got picks 3 20 and Kennedy for Judd and 46. Not quite just Kennedy.

We also gave up Chris Judd, not Tim Kelly

 

[West World]

Tell me when was the last time a club traded a top 6 pick for 2 late 1sts and a 2nd? There are basically no examples (excluding academy situations which doesnt really apply this year) because clubs base place a premium on trading top end picks for lower picks. Which is why you will struggle to get this deal done.

I agree on the Freo part of your post up to a point.

Since when was a top 6 pick needed?

Oh because Freo have 6 the Eagle MUST beat that?

The Essendon pick held by GWS is very gettable, pick 8 or 9.

The Dogs pick is also gettable again around pick 8-9.

If Geelong think a top 5 pick is in play I see that as wishful thinking.

And to answer your question the Eagles traded pick 6 for pick 11 and pick 31 in 2013.

They picked up Sheed with 11.

Pick 6 is a poisoned challis btw!

 

[West World]

This is untrue. You demean yourself by repeating demonstrable falsehoods.

Ok then. What part of that is untrue?

Lets bookmark our posts and revisit this at the end of trade week and also see how things pan out on the coaching front.

Are you saying everyrhing at Freo is roses and they are going along nicely. No unhappy campers or fans? The board are all happy with things?

Five minutes on the Freo board tells you different.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

A list manager who blows a top 3 pick on a player with family issues who does not want to play anywhere but Perth should and would be sacked.

What do you imagine Kelly's reaction would be if the Suns drafted him against his express wishes. Sure contractually he would be required to phyically turn up. But mentally he would be mighty unhappy. And that is the understatement of the year.

The Suns will be doing massive due diligence on every draftee due to their poor retention rates. And you seriously suggest they would ignor every indicator screaming out " flight risk" and "mental health risk"?

What you are suggesting would be massively counter productive and a waste of time and a top 5 pick.

Probably shouldn't nominate for the draft then when your explicit wishes contractually don't matter. If he tells a club he doesn't want to play for them then he gets a ban for draft tampering. If Dew calls him he literally is contactually obliged to tell them he'll play for them.

In any case suns can read between the lines, Freo has no reason not to take him though when his worth is probably their first and second but they can get him for a first only.

 

[Peel67skin]

Sydney come in and take Tim Kelly. Pick 4 should be enough.

 

[Purpellian Anchor]

This is untrue. You demean yourself by repeating demonstrable falsehoods.

is this copywrite Clem? I'd like to use it sometime

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Since when was a top 6 pick needed?

Oh because Freo have 6 the Eagle MUST beat that?

The Essendon pick held by GWS is very gettable, pick 8 or 9.

The Dogs pick is also gettable again around pick 8-9.

If Geelong think a top 5 pick is in play I see that as wishful thinking.

And to answer your question the Eagles traded pick 6 for pick 11 and pick 31 in 2013.

They picked up Sheed with 11.

Pick 6 is a poisoned challis btw!

Please try and be logical. Ofcourse Geelong will only trade to wce for a same or better pick than Freo offers. Your club would do the same.

The team most likely to bid on Green is Sydney at 4 or Adelaide at 3 (adelaide have form bidding on academy players) gws either dont care about a bid in which case they keep their picks or they trade ahead of Sydney to get a live pick before the bid. Trading down with you doesnt help them at all.
The dogs want to trade their first rounder next year not this years.
You may be able to get the adelaide pick but it would cost more than you would be willing to pay.

 

[eastfreo75]

Since when was a top 6 pick needed?

Oh because Freo have 6 the Eagle MUST beat that?

The Essendon pick held by GWS is very gettable, pick 8 or 9.

The Dogs pick is also gettable again around pick 8-9.

If Geelong think a top 5 pick is in play I see that as wishful thinking.

And to answer your question the Eagles traded pick 6 for pick 11 and pick 31 in 2013.

They picked up Sheed with 11.

Pick 6 is a poisoned challis btw!

Not lately

 

[JackOutback]

Please try and be logical. Ofcourse Geelong will only trade to wce for a same or better pick than Freo offers. Your club would do the same.

The team most likely to bid on Green is Sydney at 4 or Adelaide at 3 (adelaide have form bidding on academy players) gws either dont care about a bid in which case they keep their picks or they trade ahead of Sydney to get a live pick before the bid. Trading down with you doesnt help them at all.
The dogs want to trade their first rounder next year not this years.
You may be able to get the adelaide pick but it would cost more than you would be willing to pay.

If Kelly flat out refuses to go to Freo, then Geelong will have to trade for the best they can get, not the best Freo can offer.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

We also gave up Chris Judd, not Tim Kelly

Wasnt debating that.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If Kelly flat out refuses to go to Freo, then Geelong will have to trade for the best they can get, not the best Freo can offer.

No the above only holds true if he refuses Freo AND is prepared to go into the draft to try and get to WCE.
If he says no to Freo but yes to WCE with 1 year at Geelong as a backup then Geelong will keep him unless they get what they want.
It all hinges on whether he is prepared to go to the draft.

 

[JackOutback]

No the above only holds true if he refuses Freo AND is prepared to go into the draft to try and get to WCE.
If he says no to Freo but yes to WCE with 1 year at Geelong as a backup then Geelong will keep him unless they get what they want.
It all hinges on whether he is prepared to go to the draft.

The draft threat is a furphy, it doesn’t happen in modern footy. Geelong will have to take a little less than they want, Eagles give up a little more. But Geelong will accept a lower offer from the Eagles if Kelly insists that’s where he wants to be, so long as it is still reasonable.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

If Kelly flat out refuses to go to Freo, then Geelong will have to trade for the best they can get, not the best Freo can offer.

Kelly won't refuse to go anywhere until after he's certain he won't be risking the draft. If he's certain of that it means cats are happy