Player Watch Trent Bianco (Delisted 2023)

[jonbe54]

I wouldn't say either examples are comparable.

As has been mentioned the likely hood of a Swanny dropping that far is much more unlikely these days. Recruiters have a much better grasp of top end talent now days. Plus Swanny had many attitude questions about him. For every Swan there's a Dayle Garlett.

Grundy slid because the vibe at the time was it's not worth risking a first round pick on a ruck. Better to trade for an established ruck. By geebus we made out like bandits though with that poor theory that abounded at the time.

If the same "theory" was applied this year I'd be shocked if Luke Jackson went in the top 20.

Spidey we don't have any info on why Bianco slid as far as he did but we do know there are enough examples of players sliding well past their expected places in the draft who become fine players. Contrary wise there a enough examples of high expectations unrewarded to convince me at least that picking players from the national draft is far, FAR, FAAARRR from the science many make it out to be.

It's an art that the best recruiters have a feel for and cannot be acquired by any means unless gifted at birth.

The why is unimportant to the result.

 

[jonbe54]

Capping? That’s just what I think would be a good/ great outcome. Anything over and beyond that would be amazing. He sure did go alright, but playing the odds for every Dane Swan there’s 15-20 Ben Crocker’s at that point in the draft.

I'm not saying the odds are not what they are just saying that if you pick up a lad with all the tools except height (apparently the only drawback) in whatever position in the draft he has as much chance of making it as the next guy.

Draft positions are a guide, watchers perceptions of individual players against opposition in their own age group with little personal background or personality investigation. It's fine to dominate in a weight for age race but get that same runner out into mixed company and they may not be so dominant.

For my money Bianco is a highly talented young man pushed down the order because of the current obsession with height.

If he wants it bad enough he will make them eat their words.

 

[Apex36]

I'm not saying the odds are not what they are just saying that if you pick up a lad with all the tools except height (apparently the only drawback) in whatever position in the draft he has as much chance of making it as the next guy.

Draft positions are a guide, watchers perceptions of individual players against opposition in their own age group with little personal background or personality investigation. It's fine to dominate in a weight for age race but get that same runner out into mixed company and they may not be so dominant.

For my money Bianco is a highly talented young man pushed down the order because of the current obsession with height.

If he wants it bad enough he will make them eat their words.

Several first round draftees were around Biancos height including pick 1. Saying he slid because of height is rubbish under the circumstances.

 

[sr36]

You’re talking about guys who were drafted in an era when drafting was far less involved and professional. Yeah, there’s still the odd guy who falls through the cracks, but it’s a much much rarer occurrence to pick up a Swan/Mitchell/Hird/Grant type late in the draft than it used to be. Usually the best you can hope for is a Phillips type, who has an trait that makes up for their significant weaknesses. For Rantall, like Phillips it’s his endurance making up for his poor kicking. Bianco, it’s elite kicking making up for size and perceived lack of defensive accountability. That’s not to say it’s impossible for these boys to become elite, but using champions from a different era of recruiting as examples is disingenuous at best.

Out of curiosity, has anyone actually done any research that supports the belief that drafting has become progressively more accurate over the last 20 years. Tigers just won a flag with 9 blokes coming off the rookie list. There also seems to have been more top 3 draft flops in the last decade than the previous decade based solely on the vibe test.

I'm not saying your wrong. I'm just saying that its a widely held belief that doesn't appear to be tested.

 

[Scodog10]

I'm not saying the odds are not what they are just saying that if you pick up a lad with all the tools except height (apparently the only drawback) in whatever position in the draft he has as much chance of making it as the next guy.

Draft positions are a guide, watchers perceptions of individual players against opposition in their own age group with little personal background or personality investigation. It's fine to dominate in a weight for age race but get that same runner out into mixed company and they may not be so dominant.

For my money Bianco is a highly talented young man pushed down the order because of the current obsession with height.

If he wants it bad enough he will make them eat their words.

TLDR. As I said as long as people stop discussing all time greats in the same sentence as him I’m happy!

 

[Apex36]

Out of curiosity, has anyone actually done any research that supports the belief that drafting has become progressively more accurate over the last 20 years. Tigers just won a flag with 9 blokes coming off the rookie list. There also seems to have been more top 3 draft flops in the last decade than the previous decade based solely on the vibe test.

I'm not saying your wrong. I'm just saying that its a widely held belief that doesn't appear to be tested.

I think you’re confusing the idea of decent players being grabbed late, and absolute elite talent being overlooked. Almost the only time the latter happens these days is if there are other significant issues at play (ie.Stack and Pickett for the Tigers) and for every success story you have like them there’s a Dayle Garlett story. The only elite player I can think of in recent history that slid for no rational reason is Worpel, and he’s not been consistently good enough yet to put in the Swan/Hird category.

 

[ClaytonM]

TLDR. As I said as long as people stop discussing all time greats in the same sentence as him I’m happy!

As long as people stop writing him off based on height or draft position. His height and draft position are irrelevant. it will all come down to talent, brain, and body (eg injuries). He has the talent, hopefully the brain and body are up to it.

 

[sr36]

I think you’re confusing the idea of decent players being grabbed late, and absolute elite talent being overlooked. Almost the only time the latter happens these days is if there are other significant issues at play (ie.Stack and Pickett for the Tigers) and for every success story you have like them there’s a Dayle Garlett story. The only elite player I can think of in recent history that slid for no rational reason is Worpel, and he’s not been consistently good enough yet to put in the Swan/Hird category.

The Swan/ Hird category is too small a category to really base anything on though. And even if you do look just at the very top shelf, guys like Grundy, Fyfe, Cripps, didn't go very early. They didn't make it to the 40s, but they do still point to how inexact a science it remains. Guys like Stewart, Ben Brown, Tim Kelly were passed several times. We hold on to rankings of a kid at age 18 for far too long, even though we know they would have been ranked entirely differently at age 17, as they should be at age 20,25,etc.

 

[Apex36]

The Swan/ Hird category is too small a category to really base anything on though. And even if you do look just at the very top shelf, guys like Grundy, Fyfe, Cripps, didn't go very early. They didn't make it to the 40s, but they do still point to how inexact a science it remains. Guys like Stewart, Ben Brown, Tim Kelly were passed several times. We hold on to rankings of a kid at age 18 for far too long, even though we know they would have been ranked entirely differently at age 17, as they should be at age 20,25,etc.

Mate the entire reason this conversation started is people mentioning Bianco in the same sentence as Mitchell, Swan and Hird. As I said, good players can be had late, even these days, but it’s incredibly rare to get a proper top line elite player after the top 30.

 

[sr36]

Mate the entire reason this conversation started is people mentioning Bianco in the same sentence as Mitchell, Swan and Hird. As I said, good players can be had late, even these days, but it’s incredibly rare to get a proper top line elite player after the top 30.

I agree with you on the silliness of talking about Bianco in the context of Hird and Swan. But that goes for any kid at any draft pick. In the 30 odd years of the draft, Riewoldt and Hodge are the only pick 1s who belong in the same conversation as Hird and Swan.

 

[jackcass]

I think James Worpel at 45 will prove your argument wrong.

Not all players mature at the same time. The draft is a point in time assessment of what are effectively kicks. Like the HSC or equivalent, not all high school boffins go on to excel professionally.

Too much emphasis is taken on where they land in the draft. Many a top 10 has been disappointing in recent years. Go look at 2012 draft for instance, o’Rouke at 2, Toumpas at 4, and Menzel and Jaksch in top dozen. That is 1 in 3 duds in first dozen. Add to that the so called experts let Grundy slip to around 20.

These boys and girls are flawed and make mistakes. Pick duds early at times and let future champions got through.

Hardly being disingenuous.

Guy's like Stewart and Kelly, the epitome of late developers, are both serious sliders. Off our list, Phillips and Langdon both overlooked in their draft years.

 

[jackcass]

I wouldn't say either examples are comparable.

As has been mentioned the likely hood of a Swanny dropping that far is much more unlikely these days. Recruiters have a much better grasp of top end talent now days. Plus Swanny had many attitude questions about him. For every Swan there's a Dayle Garlett.

Grundy slid because the vibe at the time was it's not worth risking a first round pick on a ruck. Better to trade for an established ruck. By geebus we made out like bandits though with that poor theory that abounded at the time.

If the same "theory" was applied this year I'd be shocked if Luke Jackson went in the top 20.

Tim Kelly taken in 2017 as a 23 year old slid 5 years worth of draft picks, does he count?

 

[unplugged]

Without looking at stats (wouldn't know where to look) is it actually unusual how many boys we've taken from Oakleigh over the years? Do any other clubs favour specific NAB League teams? It seems to have happened at least since JDG and Moore but possibly longer.

Is there a reason for this I wonder?

 

[Soups]

Without looking at stats (wouldn't know where to look) is it actually unusual how many boys we've taken from Oakleigh over the years? Do any other clubs favour specific NAB League teams? It seems to have happened at least since JDG and Moore but possibly longer.

Is there a reason for this I wonder?

My guess is Hine and co like their professional structure and possibly know a lot of people that work for The Chargers.

 

[Scodog10]

As long as people stop writing him off based on height or draft position. His height and draft position are irrelevant. it will all come down to talent, brain, and body (eg injuries). He has the talent, hopefully the brain and body are up to it.

Cool although I’m yet to see one post writing him off based on draft position (I assume anyone doing it is on my ignore list). It would be as dumb as referencing all time greats.

 

[TradeDraft]

Several first round draftees were around Biancos height including pick 1. Saying he slid because of height is rubbish under the circumstances.

Agree Apex36 there has to be Another reason then just his Height

 

[partypie]

It’s a symptom of being Collingwood. I mean there’s maybe two blokes that could be spoken about in the same breath as Pendles and Mitchell and I’d let it slide, but they both went to GC with the first two picks of the draft.

Bianco was passed on 44 times before our selection and will do well to get to 100 games so yeah some need to cool their jets a bit. Bearing in mind of course that I like that we got him at that point.

Just to throw it out there if I recall correctly it works out to something like 17-18% of all VFL / AFL players managing to make it to 100 games, so any player who does that is beating the odds.

The things Bianco has heavily in his favour are skill with the ball in hand (on both sides of the body) and the innate ability to make the right decisions quickly, which both go a long way to making a medium-paced midfielder look a lot quicker and be able to play out a game at an effective level even if they aren't an endurance beast - imo the first things that tend to go later in a game when the screws are being tightened and players are getting more fatigued is decision making, followed closely by disposal.

We're all engaging in our finest crystal-ball work at the moment, but I think with the tools he has already there will be a place in midfield rotation for him, if he can get the physical side of his game up to a decent level (and there's nothing to suggest that he wont put in the hard work it takes to get there at this stage).

 

[partypie]

Tim Kelly taken in 2017 as a 23 year old slid 5 years worth of draft picks, does he count?

Not really - he admits himself that he wasn't ready coming out of junior footy. It's only been the past couple of years that he's really stood out.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

most years there seems to be a couple of sliders.

in one sense they might drift into an unexpected pick (expected at mid 20 range but go at mid range 40)

however in a way it’s really each club having only a few picks and preferring a player they feel is a more pressing need or they can’t resist bidding on someone and getting caught up in that.

i sort of look at the draft and think of the first 22 players kind of like picking the first team, then it goes to the next team and so on.

a bit like they are drafting that years junior year All Australian team.

Then the next batch are like an AA squad members or a second team.

Hence being in the top 2 teams of their year is still quite a feat.


(As an aside, I always think the AA final squad should be a Top 44, like a seconds team. But anyway, I guess it is but no interchange [that would at least please Kevin Bartlett].)

 

[sr36]

Agree Apex36 there has to be Another reason then just his Height

Going on the short videos of him (which is a ridiculous thing to do), his areas of concern seem very Sidey like - small, medium paced, not much physicality. If my video impression is accurate, I can understand why those traits would see someone slide.

Sidey is a top liner with those areas of concern. He overcomes those things because he is outstanding in terms of endurance, balance, skill, game sense, and spacial awareness. Basically if you are small, medium paced and not very physical, you've got to be pretty exceptional in other areas to be a top-line player. Time will tell if Bianco is exceptional enough to excel.

 

[Kappa]

Take it from me, Bianco is a gun player. Total mystery how he lasted until pick 45 in the national draft. Best pick up since Stephenson and it wouldn't surprise me if he's playing round 1 in the senior team next season, provided he stays injury free. Basically he mops up everything in the back line whether by hand or foot and gets it in the hands of a teammate going the other way.

I would assume a lack of height and lack of elite pace had recruiters worried he'd struggle to match up on good forwards.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

If he’s 5’10” how is that particularly small?

Seems acceptable as a height of a player in this era.

 

[Mick F]

Could say Mitchell is Exception to the Rule

Yes, for every Sam Mitchell and Greg Williams there are a thousand short, slow blokes that remain guns at local level.

 

[Mick F]

If he’s 5’10” how is that particularly small?

Seems acceptable as a height of a player in this era.

Pendlebury, Cripps and co are 6’4” centremen.

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Pendlebury, Cripps and co are 6’4” centremen.

Yes they are that range.

Whilst players are getting progressively taller, players in the 5’10” range are not being shown up to be precluded from being valuable AFL players.

Layers 5’6” or 5’7 even 5’8” those types are hard pressed getting senior opportunities.

Like Caleb Daniel they have to bring serious extras to be considered.

But what you say certainly points to the trend bigger matters.