List Mgmt. What to do with McCartin?

[Macgruber]

If Paddy played like Marshall on Friday night, everyone would be in raptures.

We have to face facts that Paddy is a bit like Boyd, overrated at draft time but that happens.

The other certainty, Petracca isn't a superstar either.

As Jay Sainter posted, swings and roundabouts, we got Membrey and Marshall for nothing.
Perspective . Doesn't mean Saints are hopeless, it means drsfting is hit and miss.



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Drafting is hit and miss no1 draft picks historically aren’t.

Picking mccartin over petracca is as bad as picking watts over Nic Nat

If we had petracca up forward/ middle we could play Newnes/Weller in positions more suited to them.

 

[Diehard Saint]

'

I also look at the list like a portfolio and overall performance rather than individual stocks.

That is a great metaphor and I agree with you.

I like every player that pulls on a Saints jumper, some a bit more than others, but none of them currently are blue chip shares like Rooey, Lenny, Harvey etc.
( Stuv and Carlisle getting closer.)

I would have been devastated to lose any of those to another club, but at this stage I just want to see a (hopefully rapid) upward trend next season and if that means we have to sell a few along the way to bring in others then so be it.

Of course, I’m hoping like hell my portfolio managers know what they are doing!!!

 

[busso_mick]

It's pretty simple with Paddy IMHO, his tank is simply a long way off AFL standard. Because of this it is really tough to gauge how good of a footballer he could become for us.

He was taken number 1 so he must have talent but his lack of tank means most of us aren't seeing it. Combine this with the concussions and it's no wonder we are questioning him.

This next pre-season is make or break for him as far as I see. The club should absolutely hammer him on the training track, get him fitter than he ever thought possible.... then see how he looks in games. If, after a hellish pre-season he still carries puppy fat and looks off the pace in matches, I'm afraid his tank will never be up to it and we cut our losses.

He was looking good last year before his pre-season injury, I think the following picture showed him looking a lot fitter than he does now. I am not 100% this is pre-season this year but it does show he can drop the weight if the program is right.

 

[busso_mick]

He was looking good last year before his pre-season injury, I think the following picture showed him looking a lot fitter than he does now. I am not 100% this is pre-season this year but it does show he can drop the weight if the program is right.

And another one where he is looking even fitter.

 

[triggering bro]

And another one where he is looking even fitter.

Fitter? Are you taking the piss? Sorry but he looks like absolute s**t. Skinny-fat body, ****, gut, love handles, the lot. No shoulders or any definition. Not proper, not saluted.

 

[VDS66]

Fitter? Are you taking the piss? Sorry but he looks like absolute s**t. Skinny-fat body, ****, gut, love handles, the lot. No shoulders or any definition. Not proper, not saluted.

Got one of Battle to compare?

 

[triggering bro]

Got one of Battle to compare?

I feel dirty stalking the blokes insta...but here ya go. Kents ripped to shreds, as he should be, he’s a pro athlete.

 

[mightymalaka]

I feel dirty stalking the blokes insta...but here ya go. Kents ripped to shreds.

View attachment 528091

Yeah that 2nd pic doesn't do the big boy any favours! lol
But Mav Weller is the perfect proof that muscles and a six pack
mean s**t, if your not a footballers arsehole!

 

[triggering bro]

Yeah that 2nd pic doesn't do the big boy any favours! lol
But Mav Weller is the perfect proof that muscles and a six pack
mean s**t, if your not a footballers arsehole!

Yea agree bloke. I still think there’s a minimum standard. You don’t need to look like a bodybuilder but you still need to have low skinfolds.

 

[BrutThough]

I feel dirty stalking the blokes insta...but here ya go. Kents ripped to shreds, as he should be, he’s a pro athlete.

View attachment 528091

The McGovern brothers and Hawkins show there is still a place in the AFL for big guts. Paddy just needs to work on improving his tank because he is never getting ripped like Battle.

 

[VDS66]

Yea agree bloke. I still think there’s a minimum standard. You don’t need to look like a bodybuilder but you still need to have low skinfolds.

Keep telling my wife the same thing but no good...

 

[Dard Ball Get]

 

[VDS66]

View attachment 528101

Seriously, what's with the water polo head gear?

 

[Mikka84]

Seriously, what's with the water polo head gear?

In case it rains..

 

[Drake Huggins]

At Sandy

Stick him into a fat camp. Seriously, he needs constant supervision over the preseason, with monitoring from medical professionals of everything that goes into his body. I know his diabetes is an issue, but I fail to see how someone can train through 4 preseasons, hired a PT to do extra work and still look the way he does? Slow, lacking in agility and looking as though he is carrying extra weight.

They did it to Whitnall and it worked, at least for a while. We really need to know what's really going on with his preparation, because even after all this time, he doesn't appear to have an AFL body.

 

[Drake Huggins]

At least we nailed pick 1... of the rookie draft. Sinclair is a gun.

If Sinclair had been taken in the main draft that year, at this stage I'd be saying it wasn't a bad result. Streets ahead of Paddy and Petracca.

 

[Human Person]

View attachment 528101

I feel bad for laughing so hard at that.

 

[Drake Huggins]

And when playing alongside Battle, he was able to get a lot of one on ones and looked like a good forward.

But when it was just him and Membrey, the opposition could afford to play two on Paddy because they know we always bomb it long to the goal square and you can put your third tall on Membrey without an issue.

And dont use the Carlton game as your counter argument that our other forwards get better delivery because Carltons backline is terrible and they had very little pressure coming from their midfield.


He is good for the first 15-20m, then it goes down hill

The only way he could keep up was if he was running downhill.

 

[Sadsainter]

He was looking good last year before his pre-season injury, I think the following picture showed him looking a lot fitter than he does now. I am not 100% this is pre-season this year but it does show he can drop the weight if the program is right.

Weight is one thing - football ability is another .

 

[Drake Huggins]

And another one where he is looking even fitter.

I sincerely hope that picture of him on the paddle board is from his first year and not this year. If he looked like that in the preseason this year, then we have a real problem on our hands.

 

[Dard Ball Get]

I feel bad for laughing so hard at that.

I love the bloke but I did chuckle

 

[Joffaboy]

Drafting is hit and miss no1 draft picks historically aren’t.

Picking mccartin over petracca is as bad as picking watts over Nic Nat

If we had petracca up forward/ middle we could play Newnes/Weller in positions more suited to them.

I wanted Petracca over McCartin, though he hasn't been much chop.

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[Strahany]

The thing with exogenous insulin is that it's relatively easy to stick to a consistent regime for your 'standard' Type 1 diabetic, but it's something different altogether for someone performing physical activity, let alone the demands of an AFL footballer.

To put it really simply, you obtain glucose from food insulin is used to transport the glucose into your cells where it can then be broken down and used as energy. So, whilst our body monitors how much glucose is in our bloodstream and releases insulin (and glucagon, it's counterpart) accordingly to keep it within safe limits, Paddy can't. So the problem is that he and the medical team need to dial in the right dose of insulin on the right schedule; too much insulin, and Paddy could become hypoglycaemic, due to all of his glucose being thrusted into his cells, and can manifest itself anywhere from being sluggish and performing poorly, to death. If not enough insulin is provided, then not enough energy will reach his cells, and therefore his performance will suffer; if he becomes hyperglycaemic then some rarer side effects include heart issues, but mainly long term kidney problems result.

So why does this matter?

Well, imagine a situation where too much insulin is provided, or Paddy hasn't eaten the right foods for insulin control, and he becomes hypoglycaemic. I'm sure everyone here knows or has known a diabetic, and they'll often carry around something like a Gatorade, or some jelly beans for some quick simple sugars. This is fine for the average person, but if this happens often for Paddy, then this can introduce several hundreds of calories into his diet that wouldn't have otherwise been there, which makes weight control more difficult.
You might say the above example is too drastic, which might be true, but then let's look at a more basic example. Imagine if you're at football training, and you need some more insulin; your body releases it, and you keep performing to a high level (or, well, to the best that you can, plodder). Conversely, Paddy's body can't do that. In this situation, unless he is directly monitoring his levels at this point in time, then it would be more or less impossible to distinguish a drop in performance due to poor fitness, and a drop in performance due to insufficient insulin.
Okay, big deal, the club doctors should easily keep this under control, right? Well, not exactly. Firstly, whilst dosing guidelines exist, not all people will be the same - even with identical height/weight/gender/age etc. Then you need to consider the intensity of exercise and factor that into consideration - but then the question is raised on if your calculations are right since, if you base it on his insulin balance during previous sessions, how do they know this was an 'optimal' session, and wasn't, in fact, a session where Paddy was slightly hypoglycaemic? They don't know that, and it can easily alter the numbers. On top of that, one of the great results of exercise is insulin hypersensitivity, which means that each cell requires less insulin to bring in the same amount of glucose. This is great for an individual's health, but now when you're trying to gather data on insulin dosage. So even if it was easy to create a proper plan for Paddy, the goalposts are consistently shifting, so to speak.

So, when you look at Paddy over the years and say that "he isn't in good enough shape for a player of X years", keep in mind that his training regime would be quite inefficient in comparison to a player without diabetes, and then throw in the concussion issues, too. So even if Paddy had been doing everything as best as he possibly could up until now, he would still be behind players several years his junior. This isn't to say that Paddy has been perfect, or that the medicos are yet to get on top of his diabetes, because it could well be the case that it's Paddy's fault, entirely. Maybe it is, but it doesn't change the fact that there are vastly different circumstances involved with him.

If a KPF takes 4-5 years to really hit their straps from a physical perspective and an experience perspective, then Paddy's diabetes may pin the physical aspect back 2 years or so, whilst his concussion issues would certainly be delaying his development from an experience perspective. IF Paddy is going to make it, then it probably won't be obvious for another 2-3 years, and this might not be any fault of Paddy's. Because of that, trading him for a pittance this year would be ridiculous, unless there is pertinent information only known within the club.

 

[t_94]

For someone who is supposedly an old school full forward he sure is very fumbly and drops a lot of marks.

 

[Drake Huggins]

The thing with exogenous insulin is that it's relatively easy to stick to a consistent regime for your 'standard' Type 1 diabetic, but it's something different altogether for someone performing physical activity, let alone the demands of an AFL footballer.

To put it really simply, you obtain glucose from food insulin is used to transport the glucose into your cells where it can then be broken down and used as energy. So, whilst our body monitors how much glucose is in our bloodstream and releases insulin (and glucagon, it's counterpart) accordingly to keep it within safe limits, Paddy can't. So the problem is that he and the medical team need to dial in the right dose of insulin on the right schedule; too much insulin, and Paddy could become hypoglycaemic, due to all of his glucose being thrusted into his cells, and can manifest itself anywhere from being sluggish and performing poorly, to death. If not enough insulin is provided, then not enough energy will reach his cells, and therefore his performance will suffer; if he becomes hyperglycaemic then some rarer side effects include heart issues, but mainly long term kidney problems result.

So why does this matter?

Well, imagine a situation where too much insulin is provided, or Paddy hasn't eaten the right foods for insulin control, and he becomes hypoglycaemic. I'm sure everyone here knows or has known a diabetic, and they'll often carry around something like a Gatorade, or some jelly beans for some quick simple sugars. This is fine for the average person, but if this happens often for Paddy, then this can introduce several hundreds of calories into his diet that wouldn't have otherwise been there, which makes weight control more difficult.
You might say the above example is too drastic, which might be true, but then let's look at a more basic example. Imagine if you're at football training, and you need some more insulin; your body releases it, and you keep performing to a high level (or, well, to the best that you can, plodder). Conversely, Paddy's body can't do that. In this situation, unless he is directly monitoring his levels at this point in time, then it would be more or less impossible to distinguish a drop in performance due to poor fitness, and a drop in performance due to insufficient insulin.
Okay, big deal, the club doctors should easily keep this under control, right? Well, not exactly. Firstly, whilst dosing guidelines exist, not all people will be the same - even with identical height/weight/gender/age etc. Then you need to consider the intensity of exercise and factor that into consideration - but then the question is raised on if your calculations are right since, if you base it on his insulin balance during previous sessions, how do they know this was an 'optimal' session, and wasn't, in fact, a session where Paddy was slightly hypoglycaemic? They don't know that, and it can easily alter the numbers. On top of that, one of the great results of exercise is insulin hypersensitivity, which means that each cell requires less insulin to bring in the same amount of glucose. This is great for an individual's health, but now when you're trying to gather data on insulin dosage. So even if it was easy to create a proper plan for Paddy, the goalposts are consistently shifting, so to speak.

So, when you look at Paddy over the years and say that "he isn't in good enough shape for a player of X years", keep in mind that his training regime would be quite inefficient in comparison to a player without diabetes, and then throw in the concussion issues, too. So even if Paddy had been doing everything as best as he possibly could up until now, he would still be behind players several years his junior. This isn't to say that Paddy has been perfect, or that the medicos are yet to get on top of his diabetes, because it could well be the case that it's Paddy's fault, entirely. Maybe it is, but it doesn't change the fact that there are vastly different circumstances involved with him.

If a KPF takes 4-5 years to really hit their straps from a physical perspective and an experience perspective, then Paddy's diabetes may pin the physical aspect back 2 years or so, whilst his concussion issues would certainly be delaying his development from an experience perspective. IF Paddy is going to make it, then it probably won't be obvious for another 2-3 years, and this might not be any fault of Paddy's. Because of that, trading him for a pittance this year would be ridiculous, unless there is pertinent information only known within the club.

Great explanation, Strahany. And a telling argument as to why we shouldn't have picked him in the first place. When there are so many variables at play as there are in this case, surely you wouldn't risk taking him with pick number one, would you?