List Mgmt. What to do with McCartin?

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StCicatriz said:
to use your phone analogy. in an era of the smart phone, where apple took the market share, we decided the nokia 3310 was going to make a come back

hot tip. it wasn't. it never was going to.

if you're innovating, you need a point of difference, not something harking back to 30 years ago. in that case you get the s**t tall >=200cm forward with agility, stretching defenders or you are going small and mobile. you're not picking a block who reminds you of an 1980s/1990s full forward with the aerobic capacity of a sloth.

right now paddy is the biggest number 1 pick bust since john hutton in 1991, which was only the 5th draft to occur, in an era where the recruiter didnt even watch all of the players.

thats how ******* bad the pick is right now. clubs who didnt even watch the players, still managed to pick a better player at pick 1. when you compare the money invested between the two selections, you're literally in awe as to how bad we ****** that up. you're talking a spend difference north of a million to produce a poorer outcome with all the technological and industry advancements.

and here's the thing, a LOT and i do mean a LOT of supporters saw this one coming.
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Paddy is a s**t truck
 
I doubt Paddy will ever be a superstar. But I'd love to see him get a decent run at it with injury. Even when he managed to string a few games together this year, there were signs there that he can play. The talk that he's the worst no.1 of all time is harsh given that he has had such a bad run with injury.

Hoping it turns around for him this year.
 
StCicatriz said:
to use your phone analogy. in an era of the smart phone, where apple took the market share, we decided the nokia 3310 was going to make a come back

hot tip. it wasn't. it never was going to.

if you're innovating, you need a point of difference, not something harking back to 30 years ago. in that case you get the s**t tall >=200cm forward with agility, stretching defenders or you are going small and mobile. you're not picking a block who reminds you of an 1980s/1990s full forward with the aerobic capacity of a sloth.

right now paddy is the biggest number 1 pick bust since john hutton in 1991, which was only the 5th draft to occur, in an era where the recruiter didnt even watch all of the players.

thats how ******* bad the pick is right now. clubs who didnt even watch the players, still managed to pick a better player at pick 1. when you compare the money invested between the two selections, you're literally in awe as to how bad we ****** that up. you're talking a spend difference north of a million to produce a poorer outcome with all the technological and industry advancements.

and here's the thing, a LOT and i do mean a LOT of supporters saw this one coming.
Click to expand...
I don’t think we will agree on where Paddy is at, which is fine.

Is the reason you think Paddy won’t make it soley/mostly tank related?

I think this is where our difference of opinion comes from. I think he can fix his tank and if he does he makes it. Reading between the lines, you see a player that has had plenty of time to be afl ready and is still no where need ready for modern footy. Which is understandable. Is the right?

In my eyes he has the tools to be a very good CHF with the exception of his tank. If he gets his diabetes in order and gets off the concussion train he will have the opportunity to build that tank IMO. I have mentioned on here before that after concussion our doctor had us on zero cardio and no gym. I assume it’s been the same for Paddy.
 

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Paddy is tracking about as well as another very high Pick key forward who is not "built for the modern game" and was playing full forward in a sh*** side.

KENNEDY%20Josh.png


Surprisingly, some still don't realise that football development is not a linear progression.

McCartin clearly has enough skills to kick 50 goals a season at full forward - what he needs is an uninterrupted run with a better game plan and then we can make a judgement.

 
Some of the comments on paddy are a bit harsh but there is no doubt we can all agree unless he can get his cardio right then he is a bust. I feel for him because it appears his fitness is not attitude related but diabetes related. I was talking to a lady through a work related matter the other day and it came up her husband (Sydney based) had been working closely with paddy the last 12 months as he was a sports diabetes specialist outside of the afl system. At least we are leaving no stone unturned in our quest to manage the diabetes issue.

I am looking forward optimistically to the Paddy McCartin next chapter of his career but if it continues to be snippets of highlights in say 2 more years rather than running out games we need to move on and accept our losses.
 
Mattysaints said:
Some of the comments on paddy are a bit harsh but there is no doubt we can all agree unless he can get his cardio right then he is a bust. I feel for him because it appears his fitness is not attitude related but diabetes related. I was talking to a lady through a work related matter the other day and it came up her husband (Sydney based) had been working closely with paddy the last 12 months as he was a sports diabetes specialist outside of the afl system. At least we are leaving no stone unturned in our quest to manage the diabetes issue.

I am looking forward optimistically to the Paddy McCartin next chapter of his career but if it continues to be snippets of highlights in say 2 more years rather than running out games we need to move on and accept our losses.
Click to expand...
 
I think that Paddy is a very good contested mark but he needs to be given the opportunity to run at the ball. He is not a Stewie Loewe type that can monster his opponents no matter where the ball is delivered. To many times this season we just dumped the ball on his head and expected him to beat two opponents.
On the lead, he gets good separation from his defender but the amount of times his leads were ignored this year was frustrating (Ratten, as both a transition and a forward coach, should be able to rectify some of our poor I50 delivery)
If Paddy can get his body right, and with the added benefit of Bruce in the team doing a lot of the grunt work up the ground, IMO 40+ goals is not beyond him
Is 40 goals enough of a contribution for a #1 draft pick? I guess it also depends on how his inclusion in the team impacts on guys like Bruce, Membrey and the small forwards.
If Bruce, Membrey, and the small forwards can have more scoreboard impact because of Paddy's efforts, then I am probably leaning towards a yes.
The club have shown a lot of faith in him. Let's hope he starts repaying that faith in spades
 
WhiskySaint said:
I don’t think we will agree on where Paddy is at, which is fine.

Is the reason you think Paddy won’t make it soley/mostly tank related?

I think this is where our difference of opinion comes from. I think he can fix his tank and if he does he makes it. Reading between the lines, you see a player that has had plenty of time to be afl ready and is still no where need ready for modern footy. Which is understandable. Is the right?

In my eyes he has the tools to be a very good CHF with the exception of his tank. If he gets his diabetes in order and gets off the concussion train he will have the opportunity to build that tank IMO. I have mentioned on here before that after concussion our doctor had us on zero cardio and no gym. I assume it’s been the same for Paddy.
Click to expand...

its not just his tank, he has no agility!!!

he will never make it as a CHF as he won't have the agility for the ground ball nor the tank for the running patterns required. he wont be able to get up and back down the ground. he won't be able to apply any defencive pressure.

to make it at the highest level you have to have a trait that makes you different to the rest. you need something in your game that is elite and hard for defenders and teams to counteract. paddy does not have that. sure he has nice hands in the marking contest, but he's also undersized making it easy for defenders to defend him in a one on one contest deep. he doesn't have the aerobic capability to get on his bike and make that his go as a medium tall, like membrey does.

the concussion and diabetes is just an excuse. he's been in the system for 4 full seasons. you're telling me he hasn't had the chance to develop a tank. it took membrey 2 off-seasons to do that!!!
 
StCicatriz said:
its not just his tank, he has no agility!!!

he will never make it as a CHF as he won't have the agility for the ground ball nor the tank for the running patterns required. he wont be able to get up and back down the ground. he won't be able to apply any defencive pressure.

to make it at the highest level you have to have a trait that makes you different to the rest. you need something in your game that is elite and hard for defenders and teams to counteract. paddy does not have that. sure he has nice hands in the marking contest, but he's also undersized making it easy for defenders to defend him in a one on one contest deep. he doesn't have the aerobic capability to get on his bike and make that his go as a medium tall, like membrey does.

the concussion and diabetes is just an excuse. he's been in the system for 4 full seasons. you're telling me he hasn't had the chance to develop a tank. it took membrey 2 off-seasons to do that!!!
Click to expand...

Obviously I disagree about the agility. I think that is related to fitness, but seems nimble enough to me when he has played at his fittest/ leanest.

To me what you’re saying is you don’t think he can/will ever have an AFL tank and that is the main reason he will be a bust. Fare enough given his time in the system.

However, I think he gets there and his lack of continuity and diabetes have been the only reason he hasn’t got his tank sorted.

I’m sure we both agree that hopefully he gets his fitness together so we can at least see if he has what it takes.
 
WhiskySaint said:
Obviously I disagree about the agility. I think that is related to fitness, but seems nimble enough to me when he has played at his fittest/ leanest.

To me what you’re saying is you don’t think he can/will ever have an AFL tank and that is the main reason he will be a bust. Fare enough given his time in the system.

However, I think he gets there and his lack of continuity and diabetes have been the only reason he hasn’t got his tank sorted.

I’m sure we both agree that hopefully he gets his fitness together so we can at least see if he has what it takes.
Click to expand...
I think everyone can agree on wanting to at least see him get a solid body of work, but like StCicatriz I'm also very very skeptical about Paddy. From what I've seen he's played one good game in his career and 3 years in at that. He's completely inneffectual if he isn't being given the ball on a platter and even then he fumbles a lot. He doesn't create space, doesn't know how to protect the drop, doesn't even push off his opponent to lead, has no breakaway speed and is cooked halfway through every game.

That's not even mentioning the diabetes and concussions...
 

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The Drawn GWS game last season i thought he was great. Gave us an option and kicked a couple from memory. We played with pace and he looked good with room to move into.

It was games like the Cats at Kardinia Park that killed him.
We played slow and kicked it long to him 2 or 3 on 1 which not only batters him but also looks ordinary in terms of the stats sheet as he is no chance of marking many in contests like that.

Hopefully he can make the 50 his own this year and then when King comes along, become the spearheads of our next finals team.
 
McCartin clearly has the smarts to play in our forward line. His biggest issue is his body, and the lack of confidence that stems from that.

We need to remember that he has only played 24 games in the last three years, and only 15 of those with Josh Bruce in the same team (and in those one of Paddy or Bruce were injured 5 times). So he really hasn't been able to develop any consistency in the way he wants to play, or in his playing relationship with other key forwards. Paddy has oft been asked to shoulder the responsibility of heading a forward line despite the fact that he has been clearly under done from a physical preparation point of view.

Anybody who has played first class sport knows that at the top level there are very few easy contests, and when the going gets tough your inner belief comes from knowing that you have done the hard yards beforehand; that you have trained for whatever forsaken adversity confronts you, and that you are conditioned and ready to compete.

But, when you haven't done the hard yards then you are purely playing on a combination of talent, smarts and self-confidence . And that will only get you so far before you fall off the pace. Then you start feeling like you are letting everyone around you down; team mates, coaches, supporters, family and self. And you become inhibited and play within your real capabilities.

I think this is about to change. It finally looks like Paddy is on track to meet some very important fitness goals and importantly find some durability in his training. I think we will all be surprised by the transformation that will have on him come game day, especially from a mental aspect. Having Bruce alongside him will help, and when King comes on Paddy's role will become a little less demanding again. It also looks like we are going to be able to surround our talls with a nice blend of genuine pace and ground ball smarts too. Don't be surprised if you see Paddy fly for a pack mark early on in the year and strutting around like he belongs.

Here is a hot tip for you while I am at it. Patrick McCartin will captain at least one game in 2019.

Go Saints.
 
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Here are some stats from older key forwards in a study of how long it takes to mature into a useful player

(=======================) I have arbitrarily chosen to mark a key forward as successful once he can regularly produce seasons where he averages 2 goals per match. The lag for a key forward to become a 2 goal a week forward is quite variable. One could generalise that most of these successful key forwards have a 3 year build up to get to that level but the evidence is quite weak. Josh Kennedy and Tom Hawkins took 5 years.
GA = goal assists
CM = contested marks

Lance Franklin
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2005   20   21   8  10
=======================
2006   14   31   6   6
2007   22   73  12  28
2008   25  113  18  64
2009   21   67   8  37
2010   18   64   7  32
2011   22   82  16  39
2012   19   69  24  39
2013   21   60  11  26
2014   22   79  20  51
2015   17   47   7  17
2016   26   81  19  42
2017   24   73  24  40
2018   19   57  18  38

Josh Kennedy
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2006    9    5   1   5
2007   13    6   -   7
2008    7    7   4   9
2009   16   31   9  23
2010   22   41  15  30
=======================
2011   23   59  15  42
2012    9   18   1   7
2013   21   60  17  16
2014   20   61  10  19
2015   25   80  18  28
2016   23   82  15  42
2017   19   69  10  34
2018   14   43   4  22

Jack Riewoldt
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2007    8    7   5   6
2008   18   18  15  14
2009   20   32   8  28
=======================
2010   22   78   9  54
2011   22   62  21  41
2012   22   65  20  39
2013   22   58  26  31
2014   23   61  18  28
2015   23   54  22  42
2016   22   48  18  43
2017   23   54  11  37
2018   24   70  19  48

Tom Hawkins
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2007    9   12   6   6
2008   10   13   6  17
2009   24   34  18  31
2010   18   21   9  22
2011   18   27  14  42
=======================
2012   22   62  19  54
2013   22   49  16  35
2014   24   68  17  56
2015   19   46  16  48
2016   23   55  17  58
2017   22   51  17  36
2018   21   60  24  47
 
Here are some stats from current players who were drafted as key forwards

Thomas Lynch
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2011   13   15   4  28
2012   17   12   5  20
2013    8    8   7  18
=======================
2014   22   46  22  43
2015   20   43  13  51
2016   22   66  24  62
2017   19   44  16  27
2018   10   20   7  15

Jeremy Cameron
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2012   16   29  11  26
=======================
2013   21   62  11  12
2014   14   29   4  12
2015   22   63  10  17
2016   20   53   9  17
2017   19   45  11  13
2018   18   46   7  23

Jonathon Patton
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2012    7    4   4   8
2013    3    5   2   -
2014   19   25   7  29
2015    3    3   2   1
2016   23   38   8  36
=======================
2017   22   45   7  44
2018   12   10   8  12

Joe Daniher
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2013    5    3   1   6
2014   21   28  10  27
2015   22   34   6  35
=======================
2016   22   43  10  52
2017   23   65  11  43
2018    7    8   4  11

Josh Jenkins
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2013   17   24   7  18
=======================
2014   20   40   7  21
2015   21   46  15  12
2016   24   62  23  30
2017   21   52  14  25
2018   22   46  14  27

Ben Brown
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2014   11   18   6  15
2015   22   32   7  24
2016   22   41   7  49
=======================
2017   22   63  12  43
2018   22   61  15  36

Thomas Boyd
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2014    9    8   6   8
2015   14   16   1  18
2016   15   13   2  18
2017   11    7   4   3
2018   12    6   5   9

Cam McCarthy
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2014    1    1   -   -
2015   20   35   8   9
2016    -    -   -   -
2017   19   25   8   7
2018   17   19  10   8

Jesse Hogan
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2014    -    -   -   -
=======================
2015   20   44  12  47
2016   21   41  12  43
2017   10   20   6  10
2018   20   47  14  24

Jeremy Cameron and Jesse Hogan look like they are set to have fine careers as the key forward target of their respective clubs. They are clearly above average. Tom Lynch, Ben Brown, Josh Jenkins and Joe Daniher are also doing fine and Jono Patton probably should have sought a different club to spearhead. Tom Boyd and Cam McCarthy have not set the world on fire.
 
Paddy McCartin
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2015    6    3   1   5
2016   11   14   4  17
2017    5    5   3   5
2018   13   12   3  15

Peter Wright
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2015    3    1   -   3
2016   17   27   9  29
2017   22   31   8  28
2018    7    5   0  11

Darcy Moore
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2015    9    9   2   9
2016   17   24  10  35
2017   21   25   8  38
2018    7    3   0   4

Josh Schache
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2016   17   16   7  21
2017   10    9   4   2
2018   13   17   3   9

Harry Mckay
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2016    0    0   0   0
2017    2    3   2   3
2018   13   21   3  20

Eric Hipwood
Code: 
Year Games Goals GA CM
2017   20   30  11  22
2018   22   37  13  18


These players are still early in their careers but none have shown themselves to be a dominant key forward as yet
 
What expectations do I have?

I think we need to see Paddy play more matches, hopefully 20+ in 2019 (and beyond)
I would want to see him average more than 1 goal and 1 contested mark per match in 2019
I would like to see him extend that to averaging more than 2 goals per match and more goal assists in 2020

with Max King now at the club, the continued inability of McCartin to perform at the expected levels in 2019 (and 2020 if he is contracted) will surely see him moved on.
 
I actually think the recruitment of Maxxx might end up being the best thing to happen for Paddy.

Paddy is no longer the only high draft key fwd for us. Maxxx seems to have that inner confidence in himself that will thrive on being the "messiah" up fwd for us.

Paddy can concentrate on just getting himself right. He can be a very nice 2nd fiddle to Maxx. A one - two punch of Paddy and Maxx could be incredible.


While I'm at it- maybe we should recruit Nic Nat and reat him in a fwd pocket....


We could have a fwd line of:

Nic Nat, Paddy, Max.......
Give the dog a bone, this old man came rolling home



Hello?...... is this thing even on?


tenor-11.gif
 
So far he's tracking like Jay Schulz

Official stats:
Richmond 2003 : SFA
Richmond 2004 : SFA
Richmond 2005 : SFA
Richmond 2006 : SFA
Richmond 2007 : SFA
Richmond 2008 : SFA
Richmond 2009 : SFA

Traded to Port for peanuts.
Port 2010 : 30+
Port 2011 : 30 +
Port 2012 : 40 +
Port 2013... 9th most effective forward in the contest.
 
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