Prediction Who's poised to be the disappointment/let down team of 2024?

[Blackhawk42]

This is all my subjective opinion, but;

1. Hawthorn over-achieved last year
2. North are further ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild, and should now be seeing some sustained improvement
3. Hawthorn's list is in a bad way, and may have the worst defense in the AFL (North aren't much better in this regard, for what it's worth)
4. Even before yesterday's injuries, it was my opinion that Hawthorn were the team in the AFL that was least prepared to cover any injuries to key players
5. I think Hawthorn's 'top' players are very, very over-rated by Hawk fans

I've said it before (and copped abuse from Hawk fans for it) but I think 2024 is going to be the massive bottoming-out year for Hawthorn, and starting next year is when you'll start to rebuild properly out of it.

You'll likely disagree. That's fine.

Opinions and opinions. So, whatever.

But you'll get necessary feedback on this list.

1. Okay sure, may have over achieved. Zero issue with anybody believing this.

2. What evidence do you have for this? Why are North further ahead in the rebuild? Because there are more first round draftees on the list? It can't be results based, so I'm genuinely curious.

3. Sorry, WHAT? Can you provide some reasoning as to why it's the worst list in the AFL?
As for the defensive end, North Melbourne are going into 2024 with quite possibly the weakest back 6 in the history of AFL football, relative to their time period. Logue being injured is bad luck, but there are zero reliable replacements ready after McKay left. Strange comment.

4. That's fine. You don't rate our depth. Box Hill made a preliminary final on the back of some great performances from our fringe players. But sure.

5. Who are you talking about exactly?
Jai Newcombe who was top 20 in the coaches votes and Brownlow and made the All Australian squad?
James Sicily, who Marcus Bontempelli said was the one opposition player he'd want at the Bulldogs?
Will Day who played his first season of midfield and won our best and fairest?
Josh Weddle who has people outside of Hawthorn rating him as a potential top 10 player in the game?
Mitch Lewis, who is at the elite end for tall forwards on goal per game average? (Needs more continuity in his body, I'm b happy to admit).
Luke Breust, who is an all time small forward for overall goals, consistency and durability?




I'd just love a more detailed explanation for these opinions is all, considering the majority of them appear to be held by you, and at best, a small minority.

 

[Chadwiko]

I'd just love a more detailed explanation for these opinions is all, considering the majority of them appear to be held by you, and at best, a small minority.

If this was true, why are all the Sport Betting agencies firmly of the belief Hawthorn will be bottom 4?

 

[Blackhawk42]

If this was true, why are all the Sport Betting agencies firmly of the belief Hawthorn will be bottom 4?

This was in relation to all your points.

There aren't many people out there who believe we have the worst list, overrated 'top' players and a worst defensive end than North Melbourne.

I don't give a flying Fluff what sports betting agencies say about anything, but considering Hawthorn are still rated as a better chance of finishing higher than North Melbourne by those betting agencies, it's odd to me that you'd use that as a way to try and prove your point.

Also, you didn't answer any of my direct questions. You still haven't explained how you've come to develop that viewpoint on Hawthorn's prospects in 2024.

 

[Chadwiko]

Also, you didn't answer any of my direct questions. You still haven't explained how you've come to develop that viewpoint on Hawthorn's prospects in 2024.

I'm not really interested in having an in-depth back and forth on why Hawk fans think I'm wrong.

But to address just one of your questions, North are obviously 'further ahead in the rebuild' in that we've actually bottomed-out and should now be on the upward trend after four consecutive years of bottom 4 finishes.

In that same period, look at the games Hawthorn have won;

2020 - 5W 12L*
2021 - 7W 2D 13L
2022 - 8W - 14L
2023 - 7W - 16L

To me, Hawthorn have been floundering around in the bottom 8 without actually properly commencing a rebuild, and 2023 exposed that your list wasn't a top-up away from being competitive, but requires a proper rebuild. I believe 2024 will see the results bear that out and Hawthorn will struggle to win more than 6 games~.

Meanwhile, NMFC were historically bad in 2023, winning a total of 3 games. I think we should be expected to win anywhere from 5-9 games this year, and personally I'm optimistic that we'll be a lot more competitive. Therefore, I have NMFC above Hawthorn in 2024.

 

[Chadwiko]

4. That's fine. You don't rate our depth. Box Hill made a preliminary final on the back of some great performances from our fringe players. But sure.

Also, NMFC's VFL team made the VFL finals last year too, despite our AFL team being historically bad. This doesn't really prove what you think it proves.

 

[Blackhawk42]

I'm not really interested in having an in-depth back and forth on why Hawk fans think I'm wrong.

But to address just one of your questions, North are obviously 'further ahead in the rebuild' in that we've actually bottomed-out and should now be on the upward trend after four consecutive years of bottom 4 finishes.

In that same period, look at the games Hawthorn have won;

2020 - 5W 12L*
2021 - 7W 2D 13L
2022 - 8W - 14L
2023 - 7W - 16L

To me, Hawthorn have been floundering around in the bottom 8 without actually properly commencing a rebuild, and 2023 exposed that your list wasn't a top-up away from being competitive, but requires a proper rebuild. I believe 2024 will see the results bear that out and Hawthorn will struggle to win more than 6 games~.

Meanwhile, NMFC were historically bad in 2023, winning a total of 3 games. I think we should be expected to win anywhere from 5-9 games this year, and personally I'm optimistic that we'll be a lot more competitive. Therefore, I have NMFC above Hawthorn in 2024.

There isn't a hard and fast rule about rebuilds though.

We went into 2023 as the youngest team in the competition. We still didn't bottom out below a 7 win season.
Our top 4 of the B&F were all 24 or younger. There isn't a reliance on the older players like some believe there is. We perform worse when Sicily and Lewis don't play, however that's far more positional than anything.

We MIGHT bottom out and win the spoon in 2024. At the moment I just don't see how we aren't still above North and West Coast at an absolute minimum.

A record of 6-9 with a percentage of 90 in the second half of 2023. That's enough for some optimism heading into this year. Completely bottoming out now would come as a bit of a surprise.


As for your first sentence... well this is a footy forum. And you're sharing your opinions. I don't know why you wouldn't be interested in having a proper discussion with people questioning you. As long as it's respectful.

 

[The Jet From Poowong]

This is all my subjective opinion, but;

1. Hawthorn over-achieved last year
2. North are further ahead of Hawthorn in terms of their rebuild, and should now be seeing some sustained improvement
3. Hawthorn's list is in a bad way, and may have the worst defense in the AFL (North aren't much better in this regard, for what it's worth)
4. Even before yesterday's injuries, it was my opinion that Hawthorn were the team in the AFL that was least prepared to cover any injuries to key players
5. I think Hawthorn's 'top' players are very, very over-rated by Hawk fans

I've said it before (and copped abuse from Hawk fans for it) but I think 2024 is going to be the massive bottoming-out year for Hawthorn, and starting next year is when you'll start to rebuild properly out of it.

You'll likely disagree. That's fine.

Let’s hope you haven’t disappeared before round 5
because in my subjective opinion north will have done well to get 2 wins in 2024

 

[The Jack]

The Saints will yet again disappoint all those who have given them no hope of making the 8.

 

[gbatman]

Who's got the injuries and instability off the field that who was good and promising last season?

Think Sydney could go either way. Melbourne looking very likely. Essendon have owned this thread for a long time, can they finally make a significant improvement? Port finished the season poorly after being good for most of it.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

They are the cockiest supporter base ever from a bottom 4 team aren't they...

Was tempted to vote for them but the Carlton option was non negotiable this year.

You did very well with that first paragraph mate. The second one not so much though!

I'll go with Essendon here. Enjoy those 20th birthday celebrations this September Bombers.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

Poor troll.

You even said it yourself that many don't expect them to be any good which is true. The majority think that. I'm the minority and disagree. Most Hawks fans aren't even saying or think what you said.

I'll tell you this much though. They'll belt you when they play you and show you that you're a bottom four club if not a bottom side like you were last year. You're in no such position to be taking pop shots ( But I am haha gee I'm tough )

Hawthorn will finish above you guys this year. AGAIN.

He/she is in such a position where Collingwood are concerned though. 1977 mate that is by far my most celebrated non Carlton flag.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

Without doubt the team that will let the most football supporters down this season is Richmond Tigers FC. Approximately 9.2 million opposition fans are praying, hoping and have talked themselves into expecting the "once" mighty Tigers to finalise their ladder positioning within the bottom 4. Come the end of the season they gunna be:

I hope you got the full cash value out of those flag wins mate. It's gonna be a fair old while before the Tigers win another one.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I hope you got the full cash value out of those flag wins mate. It's gonna be a fair old while before the Tigers win another one.

Not 29 years I hope.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

Not 29 years I hope.

I lived through a Richmond premiership dynasty and survived to tell the tale.

If Collingwood embark on one though, them i'm going to have a serious problem on my hands!

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I lived through a Richmond premiership dynasty and survived to tell the tale.

If Collingwood embark on one though, them i'm going to have a serious problem on my hands!

You must of course mean you have lived through the first part of the Richmond dynasty.

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

You must of course mean you have lived through the first part of the Richmond dynasty.

That one will do fine. Please stay crap for another 37 years now.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

The problem with Freo is.........


The core. The core. The core. The core.

 

[Scritchyscroony]

You did very well with that first paragraph mate. The second one not so much though!

I'll go with Essendon here. Enjoy those 20th birthday celebrations this September Bombers.

Unlike Blues though there's not a lot of expectation around the Bombers.

Zzzzffffffppppzzzffffpppzppppffffffffffffffpfpfpfpfpfpffffzzz p
Thats the prolonged deflating sound that Carlton hype balloon is gonna make if you guys don't get to a prelim!

Bombers miss finals again ... meh.. usual

 

[Irish BlueBagger]

Unlike Blues though there's not a lot of expectation around the Bombers.

Zzzzffffffppppzzzffffpppzppppffffffffffffffpfpfpfpfpfpffffzzz p
Thats the prolonged deflating sound that Carlton hype balloon is gonna make if you guys don't get to a prelim!

Bombers miss finals again ... meh.. usual

We'll make the grand final and beat Collingwood to regain our position as the greatest club in the land.

 

[Scritchyscroony]

We'll make the grand final and beat Collingwood to regain our position as the greatest club in the land.

I'd rather you didn't.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Taylor Swift


Maybe she's related to Tom Swift

Tom Swift

Age

33

Ht

189cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.4

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

9.2

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

3.0

5star

CL

1.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

13.0

4star

K

4.6

2star

HB

8.4

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

1.2

3star

the ex-West Coast player?

 

[Freomaniac]

Yep. Sammy Mitchell is a conman who has convinced the supporters that regression is okay and it’ll all just happen eventually because Hawks.

The talk of finals is ridiculous.

are you saying Sam Mitchell is a snake oil salesman like ross Lyon? lol

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

How are Essendon coming 3rd in this vote as I don't really have any expectations of them?

 

[Retzlaff]

I’ve given the first vote to West Coast as I’m worried they might win a couple of games

 

[catstorm]

I have seen a lot of people rating GWS very highly.

I’m prepared to go on record saying they will struggle to make the 8. I think people are getting sucked in by an end of season purple patch, they are a mediocre team that will finish somewhere between 7th-12th.