List Mgmt. 2021 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals

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I don't think you can look at one year to determine the sucess of your trading/drafting.
last year we brought in 2 top 5 picks plus gulden + drafting Hickey minus Allir minus our 3rd pick this year.
this year we lost Hewett and Dawson and next years 3rd but gained Ladhams and next years first(Melb) and 2 second rounders.
Next year we potentially could have 3 first rounders (2 picks in first round+academy kids)

So over a 3 year period we potentially have 6 first rounders + lots of steak knives.
Depending on how well King develops/tracks we might only get him in the 1st round next year. Assuming we and Melbourne are thereabouts for finals/top 4. The club will see a potential top 10-15 bid a mile off (we generally do the academy posturing very well) and make sure we have draft value beyond that, or trade up, but I don't know if we'll get essentially 3 1st rounders. We'd have to get the exact right combination of King doing well, but not that well, and ladder finishes for that.

Certainly a longer term view is helpful though.
 
Can we use 31 and 39 to move up with someone wanting points? Do we want to?
Would it get us 23 from the Dogs?

We could then have 16, 23 and a late pick, currently at 70 but would go up with non-selections. We seem to uncover a fair amount of gold with late picks so...
 
Depending on how well King develops/tracks we might only get him in the 1st round next year. Assuming we and Melbourne are thereabouts for finals/top 4. The club will see a potential top 10-15 bid a mile off (we generally do the academy posturing very well) and make sure we have draft value beyond that, or trade up, but I don't know if we'll get essentially 3 1st rounders. We'd have to get the exact right combination of King doing well, but not that well, and ladder finishes for that.

Certainly a longer term view is helpful though.
I agree. Certainly we will have 5 1st rounders in 3 years. But that is contingent on us taking a long term view and drafting/trading as such.

I like the fact that we draft and trade sustainably. You watch the kids grow and trade just to plug holes. keep feeding them in the bottom and they largely are developed in a great environment where they can thrive.

The fact that Longmire and all the big heads at the club don't need tp prove short term goals, because they already have credibility, takes a lot of stress away from "being seen to be successful" in your fans eyes or trying to prove you have won a trade period. As Swans supporters we don't have that stress or expectation to want to prove we will be more successful next year. As supporters we trust the recruiters and management and we sleep nights knowing the club is in good hands and next year will be better even before we hit draft night.

I know I do.

Clubs like Carlton/Saints and lots of others have new coaches/new CEOs etc etc need short term wins for the morale of the club.

I'm very glad our club is focused on the long term. We play the long game.

We can be successful for longer that way.
 

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You suggested closing the thread and moving on, which was really odd even if it was a joke (as someone else has noted, it's also a draft thread).

I disagree we did the best we could with the trade period.

Ladhams - no disagreement, this was a win. Had plenty of arguments on here with people who were suggesting we should give up the future 1st to get it done, and in the end the outcome was even better than I thought it would be. Good work by the club.

Dawson - yeah, close to the mark. I think we aimed high, which was admirable but not that sensible, since we had no leverage. I think we may have been able to squeeze out some other pick shuffling if we hadn't dug in our heels so long on the high 1st round pick demand. But I'm certainly not going to die on that hill, any extra value wouldn't have been much. We got a future 1st which is a decent outcome for the situation (much prefer a current 1st) - if Melbourne tank, it gets a lot better.

Hewett - how long have we got? I won't re-hash all my thoughts on this, but IMO this was a big mistake, he is easily worth that $$/contract length, and there's simply nothing behind the assumption that he'd just get overtaken as a fait accompli (as an "ancient" 25 y.o. and if he was afforded the same luxuries as others have been). Pick 39 is ridiculous compensation for who/what we've lost. The club has to use that brilliantly for me to get over it.

In line with the fact that this is also a draft thread, I'll wait to give my final assessment before we 'move on'. If we make what appear to be good decisions at the drafts, I'll be much cheerier about this off-season. Going to be pretty difficult to rate it as a net positive though.
Sure - don't hugely disagree with your position. Largely the impact of losing Hewitt will define whether the period was neutral or net-positive.
 
Sure - don't hugely disagree with your position. Largely the impact of losing Hewitt will define whether the period was neutral or net-positive.
If I have been paying enough attention the loss of Hewett was to enable keeping both Parker and Dawson plus paying the youngsters enough. It had been on the cards for over a year.
Had we known earlier about Dawson we might have kept Hewett or not.
We stuck to our commitment with Hewett and I for one am happy with that.
It is also possible that those changes gave us enough in the kitty for Ladhams without breaking the bank.
 
Maybe that wasn't always the best option then...
Yeah, it drove me mad. Between watching us give it off to Dawson 50+ out seemingly once a week, and Brisbane doing the same with Rich, and having both come off maybe 1 in 10 times, when there was spot-up options inside 50, I was getting ropeable lol.
 
But IMO in this period - the club did the best it could in this period and there is a ratio of about 90% bemoaning vs 10% optimism....
I actually think most posters have been generally supportive of our decisions in the trade period.

Normally at this point in time the board goes into meltdown and the phrase 'rolled over' takes centre stage.

It seems the main bone of contention is George Hewett, but even then I think the majority, whilst wishing George well, understand the club's thinking.

PS Fully agree with your assessment of the trades.
 
I think even with the Hewett situation, they are going to be banking on the youngsters to develop even more. If the young midfield group aren't eventually better than Hewett this past year, then we ain't going to win the whole thing anyway. Thus its understandable that they want to see what Rowbum, Warner and Stephens can bring in the next 2-3 years, slowly increase their TOG% and then decide where to go from there in terms of the midfield.
 
Don't blame the club.
We've handed Adelaide a player we developed in our system. It's offensive when opposition supporters & media criticise us for all things Dawson because they don't research what we've gone through with him but when our own supporters do, it's sickening actually because we should know the history.

If you come back "a bit behind the pack & had to catch up" then it's not the club's fault " he dominated NEAFL and was ignored".

It took Jordan 2 years to get " the wake up call"!

This from the man himself.


"Dawson has weapons. He is a raking left-foot kick. Not many players at 192cm can cover the ground as well as he can, while those with his endurance generally do not have his size. But talent is one thing, application another. This was a lesson Dawson learned at the end of 2017 when he reported back for preseason "a bit unfit". "My skinnies [skinfolds] were a bit higher than they should have been," Dawson admits.
Players are given programs during their break to ensure they come back ready for the summer slog. Dawson, however, thought he would be "able to rock up and it will happen". "I didn't follow it to the level it should have been done," he says.


Being 1.5kg overweight is no big deal for most of us, but the margins are fine in the AFL.
The coaches were not happy and let him know about it. They did not give him a blast, which in some ways made Dawson feel worse.

"It wasn't a spray, more a heart to heart," Dawson says. "They said I was a bit behind the pack and I had to catch up."
It cost him.
"I got injured a few weeks in,
" Dawson says. "That proved if you're not going to do the work you'll get caught out. That was a wake-up call."

Another injury early in the season wiped out the first half of 2018, but he was able to break into the side in round 19 only to be dropped for the finals despite some handy games.
"On reflection, it wasn't a good look from my perspective, rocking up overweight with the skinnies high – it shows you don't care to the coaches," Dawson says. "They were pretty flat with me. I wanted to make sure I came back in good nick and show the coaches that I really want this and am working hard for it.

And there in lies why some clubs are better than others when developing talent and why supporters have NFI when mindlessly sprouting crap about how a players was left to rot in the seconds.

You do the work, you perform, you get selected.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 

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I agree. Certainly we will have 5 1st rounders in 3 years. But that is contingent on us taking a long term view and drafting/trading as such.

I like the fact that we draft and trade sustainably. You watch the kids grow and trade just to plug holes. keep feeding them in the bottom and they largely are developed in a great environment where they can thrive.

The fact that Longmire and all the big heads at the club don't need tp prove short term goals, because they already have credibility, takes a lot of stress away from "being seen to be successful" in your fans eyes or trying to prove you have won a trade period. As Swans supporters we don't have that stress or expectation to want to prove we will be more successful next year. As supporters we trust the recruiters and management and we sleep nights knowing the club is in good hands and next year will be better even before we hit draft night.

I know I do.

Clubs like Carlton/Saints and lots of others have new coaches/new CEOs etc etc need short term wins for the morale of the club.

I'm very glad our club is focused on the long term. We play the long game.

We can be successful for longer that way.
So ... we are the China of the AFL?

Horse Jinping = glorious leader for life.
 
Why is everyone assuming he'll be great? Cause he can kick the footy? That's a start.
But you've also got to have athletic and physical presence to make it as a great player in the AFL, AND be able to find the footy regularly. Dawson has all 4 of those traits. Heeney too. Gary Rohan had 3 outta 4 and never really made it - other than a few truly outstanding moments amongst many more frustrating games. I'm yet to see much to convince me on Campbell having much more than 1 outta 4. Hope he develops the nous to find the ball, because I don't think he's going to have the athletic or physical presence.

Still everyone else seems convinced so I'll await my 'road to Damascus' moment.
How many of your 4 disciplines did Dawson show before this year?
 
If only the club would officially recognise your footy genius and name one of the SCG stands after you. I look forward to having a beer and pie under your name plaque.

Love your passion. Disagree with some but not all of your opinions. Don't like your current brand of shitposting.
But his passion is totally negative. I've now put him in ignore and have been very happy with that decision.
 
Anyone seen much of Corey Warner? Predicted to be in and around the 2nd round. Would sure help any go home factor with Chad.
 
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