Preview Round 1 2022 - Adelaide vs Fremantle, March 20, 2022

[Kane McGoodwin]

I thought there is one just alive Mick Gatto?

Who killed at least 1 other of his crew...

 

[GROTTO]

Who killed at least 1 other of his crew...

Friends became enemies and enemies became friends.

In the end it was really whoever had the money. Some life to live.

Live by the sword........

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Friends became enemies and enemies became friends.

In the end it was really whoever had the money. Some life to live.

Live by the sword........

The average lifespan of a gangster is rather short...

 

[GROTTO]

The average lifespan of a gangster is rather short...

Probably about as long as the lifespan of the average AFL player.


A career in elite sport, such as AFL football, is an unusual career. It does not have long career prospects with the possibility for promotion and advancement. The career span for the average AFL player is 30 games or 2.9 years (Wood, 2003; Kelly & Hickey, 2005).

 

[Donkey Magoo]

Probably about as long as the lifespan of the average AFL player.


A career in elite sport, such as AFL football, is an unusual career. It does not have long career prospects with the possibility for promotion and advancement. The career span for the average AFL player is 30 games or 2.9 years (Wood, 2003; Kelly & Hickey, 2005).

You would have to think that that data was skewed with draftees who don't make it. I wonder what the average career for an AFL player is that plays a minimum of 10 games.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Probably about as long as the lifespan of the average AFL player.


A career in elite sport, such as AFL football, is an unusual career. It does not have long career prospects with the possibility for promotion and advancement. The career span for the average AFL player is 30 games or 2.9 years (Wood, 2003; Kelly & Hickey, 2005).

Haha, at least there is life after footy...

 

[AFC979810]

Carlton have been attempting to push up the table for a while but have been hamstrung by recruiting and drafting players like Liam Jones who aren't good enough

Ha ha ha.

If you think giving up pick 46 for a player who goes on to play 95 games and finishes top 10 at the clubs B&F the last 5 years is a negative - I don't know what to tell you.

Some of you act like the AFL talent pool is massive and its not 22 players on the field each week.

 

[AFC979810]

Now? When Carlton are going into every season with the hope of making finals. After years of building.

Only to find the Billy Framptons they've used to build suck balls when there's something on the line and let them down every time

I think you listen to the Vic Media a little too much mate. Its all fluff trying to generate excitement and revenue. They haven't had a list capable of challenging for the finals for the entire time Jones has been at the club.

Since Liam Jones arrival at the club here are Carltons finishes

2014 - 13th
2015 - 18th
2016 - 14th
2017 - 16th
2018 - 18th
2019 - 16th
2020 - 11th
2021 - 13th

 

[GROTTO]

You would have to think that that data was skewed with draftees who don't make it. I wonder what the average career for an AFL player is that plays a minimum of 10 games.

Even though the study conducted in the early '00s I have heard of this average many times being around the 3 year mark over the last few years.

I think it gets skewed both ways draftees that dont make it and then you have the 200+ game players.

Would be interested in what the Median and Mode values are?

Going off on bit of a tangent here, I truly respect and understand why players do whats best for them and dont begrudge them.

 

[GROTTO]

Haha, at least there is life after footy...

Some masquerade as coaches.

 

[hey shorty]

Ha ha ha.

If you think giving up pick 46 for a player who goes on to play 95 games and finishes top 10 at the clubs B&F the last 5 years is a negative - I don't know what to tell you.

Some of you act like the AFL talent pool is massive and its not 22 players on the field each week.

Not sure what you're getting at here.

Carlton have a long recent history of recruiting average players like Liam and it's put them where they are.

When you have a team full of average players of course he's going to get games.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

Even though the study conducted in the early '00s I have heard of this average many times being around the 3 year mark over the last few years.

I think it gets skewed both ways draftees that dont make it and then you have the 200+ game players.

Would be interested in what the Median and Mode values are?

Going off on bit of a tangent here, I truly respect and understand why players do whats best for them and dont begrudge them.

The reason for my suggested exclusion is that it would sort the difference between an AFL player and someone drafted to an AFL Club, so if you manage to become a player that plays, what's your life expectancy as a player.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I think you listen to the Vic Media a little too much mate. Its all fluff trying to generate excitement and revenue. They haven't had a list capable of challenging for the finals for the entire time Jones has been at the club.

Since Liam Jones arrival at the club here are Carltons finishes

2014 - 13th
2015 - 18th
2016 - 14th
2017 - 16th
2018 - 18th
2019 - 16th
2020 - 11th
2021 - 13th

He's why.

Him and players like him. Good enough to stay in the team, put in occasional decent performances in losses, star in token end-of-season wins after finals are out of reach.

Useless in games that count against good teams.

Will never get a game at a good team, like Frampton.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

He's why.

Him and players like him. Good enough to stay in the team, put in occasional decent performances in losses, star in token end-of-season wins after finals are out of reach.

Useless in games that count against good teams.

Will never get a game at a good team, like Frampton.

Liam Jones switch to defence reinvigorated his career. He was an elite spoiler of the ball. One of the reasons that that was so was Liam’s preference to punch the ball over marking it. So neutral possession over gained possession. The modern games best defenders are marking defenders. Ones that take possession of the ball. Jones didn’t do that.
They say that ball sports have 3 phases, we’ve got the ball, they’ve got the ball and the ball is in dispute.

jones at his best only did half the job.

 

[rabidcrow]

Liam Jones switch to defence reinvigorated his career. He was an elite spoiler of the ball. One of the reasons that that was so was Liam’s preference to punch the ball over marking it. So neutral possession over gained possession. The modern games best defenders are marking defenders. Ones that take possession of the ball. Jones didn’t do that.
They say that ball sports have 3 phases, we’ve got the ball, they’ve got the ball and the ball is in dispute.

jones at his best only did half the job.

Top 20 in the comp for contested marks? Average same amount of marks as Lever who is considered elite intercept and not far off Aliir - probably underplaying him a bit


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[dylan123]

Now? When Carlton are going into every season with the hope of making finals. After years of building.

Only to find the Billy Framptons they've used to build suck balls when there's something on the line and let them down every time

Interesting leap to put the failings of Carlton on players like Jones who have played their role very well and not on their 'stars' who haven't delivered anywhere near the contract they're receiving.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Interesting leap to put the failings of Carlton on players like Jones who have played their role very well and not on their 'stars' who haven't delivered anywhere near the contract they're receiving.

Anyone is allowed to be a good player

Role capping?

That's something we do. Lower expectations to match ability. So whatever gets churned out is fine.

Winning...? Oh that's someone else's role.

 

[dylan123]

Anyone is allowed to be a good player

Role capping?

That's something we do. Lower expectations to match ability. So whatever gets churned out is fine.

Winning...? Oh that's someone else's role.

If everyone was paid the same then I'd agree they're equally responsible. Dare say Jones beats his direct opponent most weeks which if more on the team were doing the same, they'd be playing winning football.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

If everyone was paid the same then I'd agree they're equally responsible. Dare say Jones beats his direct opponent most weeks which if more on the team were doing the same, they'd be playing winning football.

He gets the easiest opponent every week because of his feted ability to zone off and intercept mark. So Plowman, Weitering do the heavy lifting.

They've developed a role that is easy enough for him to play.

There's this weird division between being good and playing your role. Average players hide behind playing their role. You can play your role and be good.

 

[GROTTO]

There's this weird division between being good and playing your role. Average players hide behind playing their role. You can play your role and be good.

This is exactly why Mackay played 200+ games for the AFC.

 

[Donkey Magoo]

Top 20 in the comp for contested marks? Average same amount of marks as Lever who is considered elite intercept and not far off Aliir - probably underplaying him a bit


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Well except that’s not exactly true.
He has 1.7 contested marks which is above Ave but not elite, and not top 20. That’s 11%-35%.
His uncontested Marks and spoil rate kinda prove my point and the point that Drugs Are Bad Mackay? Made about his roll and how he plays it.

.


the other factor in this is that all his and all Carlton defenders raw numbers are up. Which looks good hey! 1.7 contested marks a game! But when you factor in how many opposition inside entry’s there are you understand that it’s a supply issue.
A common mistake that people make when they look at data is that they don’t apply it’s real words effect.


There is a ver famous case of this from WW2. Too many bombers weren’t returning from raids. Defence engineers took data from planes that had returned from bombings. The plane model was riddled with bullets through the body and the wings. The solution to their problem Was simple, reinforce the armour on the body and the wings.
Except that they were wrong.
The data they had collected showed where planes could be hit and return home.

When data gives the wrong solution

During World War II, researchers at the Center for Naval Analysis faced a critical problem. Many bombers were getting shot down on runs over Germany. The naval researchers knew they needed hard data to solve this problem and went to work. After each mission, the bullet holes and damage from each...

www.trevorbragdon.com

 

[Mego Red]

He gets the easiest opponent every week because of his feted ability to zone off and intercept mark. So Plowman, Weitering do the heavy lifting.

They've developed a role that is easy enough for him to play.

There's this weird division between being good and playing your role. Average players hide behind playing their role. You can play your role and be good.

Plowman does the heavy lifting??

Jones did the majority of one-on-one nullifying defending in their backline, surely. He was never feted as ANYTHING.

I think Jones could certainly have been a piece in a successful side. He was never their problem.

 

[Thetrader15]

Liam Jones switch to defence reinvigorated his career. He was an elite spoiler of the ball. One of the reasons that that was so was Liam’s preference to punch the ball over marking it. So neutral possession over gained possession. The modern games best defenders are marking defenders. Ones that take possession of the ball. Jones didn’t do that.
They say that ball sports have 3 phases, we’ve got the ball, they’ve got the ball and the ball is in dispute.

jones at his best only did half the job.

I think you're underestimating Liam Jones here. He was an elite defensive aerial player, easily outperforming the premier's best defensive KPD. See if you can find another KPD who performed better than Jones for contested marks and contested defence 1 on 1 loss percentage.

AFL Stats - AFL.com.au

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[Donkey Magoo]

These guys are the only listed KPD's for Carlton

I think you're underestimating Liam Jones here. He was an elite defensive aerial player, easily outperforming the premier's best defensive KPD. See if you can find another KPD who performed better than Jones for contested marks and contested defence 1 on 1 loss percentage.
View attachment 1299893

AFL Stats - AFL.com.au

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www.afl.com.au

Go 2 posts up and have a read about raw data.

 

[AFC979810]

He gets the easiest opponent every week because of his feted ability to zone off and intercept mark. So Plowman, Weitering do the heavy lifting.

They've developed a role that is easy enough for him to play.

There's this weird division between being good and playing your role. Average players hide behind playing their role. You can play your role and be good.

I think the issue is that all sides have role players. Premiership teams are littered with average players.

There is a lot wrong with what Carlton have done over the past 20 years. Using pick 46 to bring in Liam Jones is 100% not one of them.