Play Nice 2018 Ladder Predictions

[hk89]

Check percentages over the last 6 games of the season(including finals)... That's what's coming your way in 2018.

Was certainly a very dominant finals series, but I suspect their 2018 will have more in common with Bulldogs 2017.

 

[Tiger71]

It seems some people think that the list rating ladder must mirror the home and away ladder to be considered correct....

That’s not how it works people, as clubs are reviewing themselves against where they think their list is and then what has been achieved and it’s also why coaches and clubs come under scrutiny for not delivering to their lists potential.

Guess we should use the betting odds to do our ladder lol

 

[JVseven]

A number of Hawthorn supporters have their club finishing top 6. Which players do you see as being the big improvers for this to happen?

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

A number of Hawthorn supporters have their club finishing top 6. Which players do you see as being the big improvers for this to happen?

Probably they feel that their returning players (from long-term injuries) will pick up the slack from 2017.

 

[hk89]

These years are 1907, 1908....

WTF? This is like Geelong fans trying to compete in a premiership count s**t fight with Hawthorn fans, and including all their VFA flags in their flag count. Reeks of insecurity.

 

[Sir_Loin]

Cute, posting stats from when North wasn't even in the main VFL/AFL comp.

You like stats and graphs hey, let me post my own:
View attachment 451923

All the results are in the picture above but, for the lazy, the Tigers have finished one spot out of finals 13 times from 100 years. That’s a lot! Worse still, since the AFL has brought in a top 8 finals system, Richmond’s finished 9th a massive 6 times from 19 years, you know, when ninth actually matters.

So discrediting North's VFA history, we don't bother counting VFA premierships, so why would we count ninth place finishes in the VFA, that's 2 off North's ninth place/missing out on finals by a spot, which takes the total to 12.

13 >12 for those playing at home.

North still finished 9th more times than Richmond

 

[Sir_Loin]

Guess we should use the betting odds to do our ladder lol

Top 4...woohoo

 

[prodigy1311]

1. Adelaide
2. Geelong
3. Sydney
4. Port
5. Melbourne
6. Hawthorn
7. GWS
8. Richmond
9. Essendon
10.Western Bulldogs
11. St Kilda
12. Fremantle
13. West Coast
14. Brisbane
15. Carlton
16. Collingwood
17. Gold Coast
18. North Melbourne

Hawks to finish above GWS, tigers, essendon & dogs.? Wow that's some prediction.........
I'll be surprised if they finish better than 10th

 

[hk89]

A number of Hawthorn supporters have their club finishing top 6. Which players do you see as being the big improvers for this to happen?

We don't need any improvers for that to happen, we just need to reproduce our post-bye form instead of our pre-bye form, and we'd get 6th spot. Of course there will be others who do improve competing for spots in the 8, so we'll need to out-improve them too to make finals. Fortuantely we have some fairly impressive recruits that were missing from most of those post-bye games, namely:

Rioli
O'Meara
Frawley
Birchall
Poupolo
Stratton
Ceglar
Impey

And some other depth players who were also unavailable due to injury, and were first round draft picks that are likely to see games this year:
Lovell
JOR

As for players that played in most of those post-bye games and definitely have scope for improvement based on still being 24 or under:
T.Mitchell
Sicily
Burton
O'Brien
Brand
Howe
Hardwick
Glass

Given you have us finishing 10th, why do you think we are going to be playing worse than we did post-bye given the quality of the players returning from injury and an extensive list of still improving youth that got plenty of game time during that period? We certainly put in some poor games at the start of the year , with most of those injured players in, but it looked like a number of senior players had started going through the motions after the disappointing end to 2016, and the fact that they already had 3-4 premiership medals in their trophy cabinets. Sounds like a poor year has them a lot hungrier this year based on the vibe at training compared to the 2017 pre-season vibe. We were also trying to deal with In:T.Mitchell, O'Meara out:S.Mitchell, Lewis, which took some time to get right, and was obviously hampered by O'Meara's lack of games.

I guess you could be concerned about Hodge and Gibson out, but our best footy was played without Gibson who was unfortunately cooked before his injury took him out of the side. Hodge will be missed, but with lots of senior players returning to the backline his leadership will not be needed to the same extent it was last year. I guess you could be dubious about O'Meara playing significant games, but according to training reports of our Match simulations, O'Meara appears to have his explosive pace back, is playing without knee strapping, and had also looked very good in his final AFL game last season. Even without O'Meara playing games, adding Rioli and Poupolo back into midfield rotations will help midfield depth (Hodge did pretty much no midfield rotation work last year, so that isn't a loss from that point of view). Apparently Worpel, our first pick in the draft (late second rounder from memory) has a body that would allow him to play midfield in his first year if required, but I'd expect Lovell and JOR (if he can keep his hamstring from pinging) would be ahead of him for extra midfield depth.

Our main threat to finishing in the 8 is that we are competing for spots with other teams who will improve, namely Melbourne, Bulldogs, Saints. Pretty sure our post-bye form was better than all of those teams, and with a good deal of improvement scope of our own from players returning from injury and 8 regular best 22 players from that period being 24 and under, I'm not sure all 3 of those will improve above us (especially Saints). There could easily be spots open up for 3 of those 4 in the 8 with WC, Essendon, Tigers and even Geelong (if GAJ missed significant games) all vulnerable to missing finals.

 

[hk89]

Top 4...woohoo

Top 4 with who? The few betting agencies I looked at have Tigers finishing 5th.

 

[Sir_Loin]

Top 4 with who? The few betting agencies I looked at have Tigers finishing 5th.

Top 5...wooohoo

 

[DaveLister]

North still finished 9th more times than Richmond

Imagine being this insecure about the number 9, you must have copped it a lot as a kid.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Here's my ladder:

1. GWS - Excellent squad that is in its prime atm, finishing top has a few obvious advantages.
2. Sydney - Their youth is scary good and has a lot of development, complimented nicely by really good veterans in Parker, Kennedy and Franklin.
3. Richmond - Will build on their premiership year and have a talented squad.
4. Adelaide - Top 4 certainities for mine, but they have been hurt by the loss of Smith for the bulk of 2018.
5. Geelong - Has a few un-heralded and underrated players who help Dangerwood and Hawkins push Geelong up the ladder. An obvious homeground advantage really helps them during the H/A season as well.
   
6. Port - Have improved their depth and experience during off-season, anything less than top 8 is a failure in my book. If they start beating more top 8 sides, then they could test Richmond and the other top 4 teams for a top 4 spot.
7. Melbourne - This is the year they finally stand up and show the football world how good their squad actually is. Their midfield lacks a bit of polish and class, but that hasn't stopped other sides in the recent past going deep into September.
8. St Kilda - Underrated squad that is close to its prime, like Melbourne, they have potential, but they need to finish off particular games better.
9. Essendon - Excellent squad and a decent playing style should see them getting close to another top 8 spot. Good off-field additions, however, the inside midfield remains somewhat of a concern.
10. Dogs - I could be wrong with the 9th finish and the dogs finish in the top 8, but something went wrong in 2017 and I don't see them correcting their 2017 mistakes at this stage.
11. Hawthorn - The return of injured veterans and surprisingly good youth should see them finish around the 9-12th mark. Really rate Burton and Sicily, even if the latter is a bit of a flog, he can really play.
12. West Coast - Solid list, will struggle without Priddis and a somewhat vanilla midfield. Some of their youth look the goods, but they are out of their premiership window.
13. Collingwood - Excellent midfield, workmanlike defence, very average forward line outside Elliot and Fasolo. A fit Wells and Reid can see Collingwood finish anywhere from 8th to 14th.
14. Fremantle - Have some excellent youth and are on target with their rebuild, but are lacking in a few areas atm.
15. North - Yea I know, shoot me, I didn't put them last. North still has a lot of players in the 23-28 age range, which should hold them in good stead in most games, were competitive during most of 2017 and have many underrated (some overrated) kids that have been written off by most of BF before they have even watched them play more than 30 games. There's also a reason or two why North have not won a wooden spoon for over 3 decades with even worst lists than North has now heading into 2018.
16. Brisbane - A lot of impressive kids and Hodge should really help them organisation wise, a team on the rise.
17. Carlton - Will improve and certainly (over)rated by the media, despite finishing low on the ladder. They could finish anywhere from 17th to 10th based off potential. I personally don't rate their gamestyle and list as highly as others (still somewhat highly mind you, Curnow, Weitering, Pickett, Cripps, SPS, that is some scary good youth), but I've been wrong a few times before.
18. GC - Cultural and injury issues have let them down in recent years and their list lacks a bit atm.

 

[Sir_Loin]

Imagine being this insecure about the number 9, you must have copped it a lot as a kid.

Just a fact

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Guess we should use the betting odds to do our ladder lol

That would be dumb.

 

[Holy Rioli]

A number of Hawthorn supporters have their club finishing top 6. Which players do you see as being the big improvers for this to happen?

O'Meara, Rioli, Birchall, Frawley, Stratton, Impey, Breust, Hartung, Glass, Burton, Morrison.

 

[Sir_Loin]

O'Meara, Rioli, Birchall, Frawley, Stratton, Impey, Breust, Hartung, Glass, Burton, Morrison.

Hartung will have a massive year at the hawks I agree

 

[Holy Rioli]

Hartung will have a massive year at the hawks I agree

 

[Sir_Loin]

Nah mate you forgot. It’s ok there’s WCE fan who thinks Priddis is going around again. I could introduce you two

 

[Holy Rioli]

Nah mate you forgot. It’s ok there’s WCE fan who thinks Priddis is going around again. I could introduce you two

Since you still don't get it, the joke is we are stronger because we don't have Hartung. Sheesh I didn't think it would be that hard to get.

 

[Sir_Loin]

Since you still don't get it, the joke is we are stronger because we don't have Hartung. Sheesh I didn't think it would be that hard to get.

Nah if you meant it as a joke you would have put Hartung last in the list after Morrison. Would have been like this;

Morrison...Hartung.

Then it would have been a funny joke. But it wasn’t because you forgot.

 

[Lsta062]

Apologies, you're right. Scanned the ladder quickly, and misread GWS's percentage instead of Tigers by accident.

That's alright!

 

[PMBangers]

1. Adelaide - I think that with the addition of Gibbs they have 3 A grade midfielders (Sloane, M.Crouch and Gibbs) that are going to be hard to shut down. The departure of Lever is going to be their main problem as he did play a pretty vital role for them.

2. GWS - We were heavily weakened by injuries during our Home and Away season and with some luck, this season will be different, Our main problem will be getting the best out of our forward line, do we play our new small forwards or do we rest a midfielder as the trend seems to be at the moment?

3. Richmond - We saw last season that they were an energetic and free-flowing side and I expect it to continue, I have 2 main concerns for them. Number 1 is that they didn't really improve their list while teams around them have and number 2 is that they might get found out, every team would have been studying them during the offseason

4. Essendon - They have an exciting list and will return stronger than they were last season, I put there Elimination Final performance down to nerves and inexperience in finals but with the addition of Saad, Stronger and Smith they should be better. Main concerns are in their recruiting; the Saad pick up seems to be to allow McGrath more midfield time, but is he ready for that? Can they fix Smith's injury problems that we couldn't? Can they get Stringer performing at AA levels again and consistently?

5. Geelong - Obviously they have a brilliant list and with Danger and the Selwoods working in the middle they might have the best midfield in the comp, I'm not sure if the addition of GAJ is what they needed or what they were missing. I also question if they've got enough quality depth

6. Melbourne - They were stiff to miss out last season, especially since they were missing the leagues best ruck for a chunk of the season, Lever greatly improves their backline, adding some more quality in interception and disposal IF they deploy him correctly as a third tall rather than a true KPD. Also think that they need Hogan and Petracca to take the next step to be successful in finals

7. Sydney - Always fairly strong and as was proven last season they can come back from anywhere to make finals, I still think they have the best overall skill level of any team in the comp but they have been relying on too few to do too much. They would be top 4 for me if they had gotten some help for Buddy in the forward line but I'm not sure that he can continue performing so well. They're the only team I think can finish top of the ladder and also just miss finals. Need to see Heeney really take another step as well.

8. Port Adelaide - They've brought in 3 big name recruits to have a big push for the flag but I'm not sure they chose the right recruits. Rockliff, despite being brilliant, is an accumulator and isn't what they needed in the engine room. Motlop can be that player but has shown over the past couple of seasons that he either is inconsistent or doesn't care enough to do it regularly, he goes missing often and doesn't bring enough to the team to push them further up the ladder. Watts is similar to Motlop being inconsistent and rather underwhelming, whether thats throw lack of care or something else we can't say. Put on top of this that they brought in Trent McKenzie who is depth and Jack Trengrove who (at his best and injury frree) is best 22 but always injured I can't really justify putting them higher than they finished last year

9. St Kilda - The most underwhelming team of 2017, I expect them to miss out once more. At the end of the season saints supporters pointed out their need for a KPD and some class in the middle. The first they addressed bringing in Logan Austin, and the second they could have with 2 top 10 picks and instead opted to go the draft. Like Richmond, I don't think they've improved their squad enough and are relying on some early output from their draftees

10. Western Bulldogs - Lost a lot of experience with Boyd and Murphy hanging up the boots and seemed to ignore filling those holes in the trade period, I will admit that they brought in two good KPP's in Trengrove and Schache and then got two more great defence prospects in Naughton and Richards, but I can't say that's enough to see them back into the top 8

11. Hawthorn - Despite losing Hodge I think they have something to be optimistic about in their youngsters improving, we saw how good Burton is last year and only expect him to get better this season. With the addition of Jarman Impey they might be able to fill the Brad hill sized hole they were missing last season

12. Collingwood - I don't think they've improved but I do think the teams around them have gotten weaker, another team that I think will stagnate, not making any big waves in the competition but just going by week to week being average. Great Midfield that I think will benefit from having a fit speedstar in Jaidyn Stephenson but apart from that I don't expect much to change for the pies

13. West Coast - They lost a lot of experience all of the sudden, especially in the middle where they were already considerably weak and, like other teams, seemed to make no effort in improving their midfield through the trade period, only bringing in Brandon Ah Chee, they're very Back Line and forward line is what sees them stay outside of the bottom 5 for me, but they're relying a lot on their draftees to do really well

14. Fremantle - Not much to say, they've improved their squad but it still won't be enough to see them progress any further. I think this year may just be a development year for their draftees and youngsters.

15. Brisbane - Have improved their list the most of any of the bottom four sides through some great drafting, I think it will be a year of improvement for the Lions and they'll show some positive signs

16. North Melbourne - Haven't done anything during the trade period and picked some rather predictable (apart from Walker) players in the draft, so it will be another year of pain for the kangas, once more think that they'll show some positive signs and are already looking like doing well in the draft

17. Carlton - Addition of Bam Bam will make the absence of Gibbs not so noticeable but I think the loss of Docherty will be their biggest downfall, could easily see them finishing higher than this dependant on the progress of their youngsters like Curnow, SPS and Weitering

18. Gold Coast - Easy option really, lost their BnF winner for peanuts and gave away every pick they had for Weller who, while he's been impressive for his age, isn't the A-Grade midfielder that they'd need him to be. No games at their own ground for the first half of the season and an inexperienced list mean it'll be a difficult season for the suns, expect the Tom Lynch leaving commentary to be the only way the Suns stay relevant all year

 

[Leather Poisoning]

In your opinion, how do you explain Dylan Grimes getting 25 CH Data points for the Grand Final?

Not that it was directed at me, but I would say that champion data points are based on what a player does, rather than what they stop another playing doing.

 

[Janus]

Richmond won the flag on the back of playing three sides that are built to play on grounds smaller than the MCG with their game style.

Geelong needed another midfielder/forward to work in tandem with Dangerfield to make their system work on the MCG against the Richmond pressure due to the bigger ground.

GWS have a problem running two ways even without losing Shiel, so again the larger expense of the MCG helped. Plus they had massive injuries with Mumford and Cameron missing.

Adelaide’s system is based around putting players in positions that are based around their limitations in terms of kicking. That’s why they play AO so well. Again, such a rigid system that Richmond’s pressure exploited.

It was a simple case of right team at the right time.