Banter Adelaide Board's Combined Politics/Covid discussion Banter Thread (WARNING NOT FOR THE FAINT-HEARTED)

[Cap]

Haha, hilarious. Penbo, asked the same question I did. After all the seats lost by moderate libs to progressive independents, ALP and greens because the LNP was seen as too right wing, they think the answer is to go even more right wing? ....Really, they think thats the answer. lol

According to a few posters here there is no evidence the Libs moved to the right.

So it's pure fantasy that all the political analysts have got wrong.

Except I'm sure Sky.

 

[jenny61_99]

It's not broken though

The whole purpose of 2PP voting is to encourage voting for other candidates as you know that your vote isn't be wasted by voting for them.

By getting rid of 2PP voting all it would do is kill off minor parties and independents as people won't vote for them as their vote would end up being pointless.

It IS broken though. When the two parties are filled with crusted on pollies who are all made to toe the party line, where the majority of senior players are old white men who are firmly stuck in the “good old days” and are paid well by fossil fuel lobbyists. It IS absolutely broken. We need a robust system that allows pollies to cherry pick the best policies no matter which side came up with it first. Where they actually all work together for the greater good of the country and not just for themselves and their rich mates.

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

If you have some sort of point, try to make it.

Otherwise perhaps observe all the political commentary on the topic.

Or don't, your choice.

If a simple question regarding your political commentary can’t be answered, then it’s probably not worth observing.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Haha, hilarious. Penbo, asked the same question I did. After all the seats lost by moderate libs to progressive independents, ALP and greens because the LNP was seen as too right wing, they think the answer is to go even more right wing? ....Really, they think thats the answer. lol

It's going to be very interesting to watch the Liberal response including the new leadership.

If Dutton is elected as leader & they move more to the right, there could be a split of the party.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

One Nation, UAP and 'freedom movement' parties fail to make an impact

Despite a pandemic, tens of millions of dollars of advertising, and a swing away from major parties, far-right groups failed at the ballot box.

www.crikey.com.au

Thank goodness these types are in the vast minority in Australia... & not even huge amounts of advertising can brainwash a significant number of Australians to vote for them.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

According to a few posters here there is no evidence the Libs moved to the right.

So it's pure fantasy that all the political analysts have got wrong.

Except I'm sure Sky.

The Coalition lost because they lost the vote in the middle.

Elections are won on the swinging voters in the middle.

Really is that simple.

 

[Cap]

If a simple question regarding your political commentary can’t be answered, then it’s probably not worth observing.

It's been answered all over the media.

If you can't be bothered reading that, you obviously aren't interested in the answer.

Aren't you the guy who thought most voters weren't interested in ICAC or climate change?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

It IS broken though. When the two parties are filled with crusted on pollies who are all made to toe the party line, where the majority of senior players are old white men who are firmly stuck in the “good old days” and are paid well by fossil fuel lobbyists. It IS absolutely broken. We need a robust system that allows pollies to cherry pick the best policies no matter which side came up with it first. Where they actually all work together for the greater good of the country and not just for themselves and their rich mates.

Can be argued the 2 major parties are broken... particularly with the hand-picking of candidates, which spectacularly failed on both sides. We are not getting the right mix to represent us with these party machines.

However, nothing wrong with the 2PP voting system, which has meant that a third of Australia not voting for either major party have been able convert into seats for other parties or independents.

 

[Vader]

Was turfed to save the election. Which Morrison did.

The reason his Govt was so unpopular was because Abbott and the right wing faction within the party were actively sabotaging everything he tried to do. As a result, he was unable to achieve anything, and the Govt's popularity suffered as a result.

The problem wasn't Turnbull, it was (and still is) the hard right nutters within the party.

The Libs took the wrong lesson from the Turnbull experience, and they show every sign of making the same mistake now. If they keep going down their current path, then they will never get elected again.

On SM-T510 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[kirky]

Reducing primary vote of the majors. Has been dropping for the last 5 elections - by 17%, with the biggest 6.2% decline this election.

We are moving away from the major 2 parties & this trend is likely to continue as younger people don't support the majors as much as older people.

Minority governments may become the norm...

Year, ALP, LNP, Total, change from last
2022 32.8, 35.7, 68.5, -6.2
2019 33.3, 41.4, 74.7, -2.0
2016 34.7, 42.0, 76.7, -2.3
2013 33.4, 45.6, 79.0, -2.3
2010 38.0, 43.3, 81.3, -4.2
2007 43.4, 42.1, 85.5

Don’t understand the aversion to minority governments. It means you have to negotiate a position and demonstrate the better good for all.

The reason that those on Right are against them is because generally most of them are crap at negotiating - it is either their way or the highway.

Another analogy I’d like to use is real estate salesman - in a booming market anyone can sell however the real estate in a declining tighter market only those with the better skills get the sales.

 

[GreyCrow]

I hope internally the ALP are not falling for this 'new day' narrative that's permeated the social media discussion the last 48 hours

 

[kirky]

I suppose you have take some consolation from the rout.

 

[kirky]

What an interesting take on the election given that it completely contradicts how the 2PP system works.

Regardless of who you vote for with your first preference, your vote ends up being allocated to one of the two leading candidates in every seat. People indicate via preferences who they would prefer gets their vote.

In those 76 seats that Labor won, more than 50% of the people in those seats voted that they would prefer the Labor candidate to win the seat over the LNP candidate.

Now it's pretty much a given that just about everyone who votes for One Nation will direct their preference vote towards the Liberals, just the same as most of the Green votes end up with Labor via preferences.

So unless you're claiming that One Nation voters were directing their preferences to Labor candidates, which would be an interesting theory to hear then I don't see how appealing to a base who's voters are already secure via preferences would be the key to winning en election?

Due to the 2PP system in Australia, the middle swing vote will always be where elections are won and lost.

It's the lesson that Labor learned from the screw up from the last election by trying to go too far left with their policies to appeal to a voter base that they already had and completely lost the middle vote.

Actually One Nation preferences to the ALP can be between 35-50%. Same goes for UAP. It isn’t like the Greens where preferences to the ALP which runs at 80%+.

A lot of One Nation voters were previously ALP voters.

This was the seat of Leichardt in Qld in 2019 (go to bottom of the page for preference flows) - this election preference flows were stronger to Coalition due in part to Palmer blitz of advertising.

Leichhardt, QLD - AEC Tally Room

Leichhardt, QLD

results.aec.gov.au

 

[Vader]

Can be argued the 2 major parties are broken... particularly with the hand-picking of candidates, which spectacularly failed on both sides. We are not getting the right mix to represent us with these party machines.

However, nothing wrong with the 2PP voting system, which has meant that a third of Australia not voting for either major party have been able convert into seats for other parties or independents.

I disagree. Having a 2PP system, with 2 main parties, has (until now) invariably meant that it came down to just those 2 parties. That in itself is a large part of the reason why there's such a lack of diversity, which you rightly decry.

I prefer the ACT Govt structure, where we have larger electorates, each of which elects multiple members. It works similarly to the Senate, except that there are multiple electorates.

In theory, this lowers the quota bar, potentially allowing the election of members from smaller parties, thus increasing the diversity of the parliament. It hasn't worked out this way yet, with only Labor, Libs, and Greens elected last time around, but it should make it easier if the minor parties could actually find some decent candidates/policies/funding.

On SM-T510 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[kirky]

The reason his Govt was so unpopular was because Abbott and the right wing faction within the party were actively sabotaging everything he tried to do. As a result, he was unable to achieve anything, and the Govt's popularity suffered as a result.

The problem wasn't Turnbull, it was (and still is) the hard right nutters within the party.

The Libs took the wrong lesson from the Turnbull experience, and they show every sign of making the same mistake now. If they keep going down their current path, then they will never get elected again.

On SM-T510 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Good then they will be irrelevant if they don’t learn.

Watching a bit of Sky News last night it appears those commentators want to move further to the right - well welcome to oblivion if that is the case.

 

[George Kramer]

According to a few posters here there is no evidence the Libs moved to the right.

So it's pure fantasy that all the political analysts have got wrong.

Except I'm sure Sky.

This was the line spread by the independents and it worked, but is that what Pembo actually said, I’d like to hear the quotes. Did he say the Libs moved too far right and hence lost or were they far right compared to the platform the independents were running? Did he give examples of moving further right.

If someone could list the policies the government moved further right in the last term that would help justify it. And before anyone brings up ScoMo bringing coal into parliament, that was the term prior to him winning the election.

 

[Mutineer]

No. Not even close.

If Abbott, Morrison & Dutton hadn't destroyed his Govt from within, then the Libs would probably still be in power, and wouldn't be facing an existential crisis.

What utter hogwash, Turdbull haemorrhaged votes big time at the previous election and stunk with the electorate....absolutely no way the LNP had any chance until he was removed. Useless campaigner in every sense of the word campaigner, refused to do any campaigning in the afternoon, had to have his afternoon siesta did the Wentworth waffler.

Like Rudd an absolute stain, all he ever had was waffle waffle waffle. Like Rudd showed his true colours after he got ditched.

 

[Cap]

What utter hogwash, Turdbull haemorrhaged votes big time at the previous election and stunk with the electorate....absolutely no way the LNP had any chance until he was removed. Useless campaigner in every sense of the word campaigner, refused to do any campaigning in the afternoon, had to have his afternoon siesta did the Wentworth waffler.

Like Rudd an absolute stain, all he ever had was waffle waffle waffle. Like Rudd showed his true colours after he got ditched.

Turnball lost voters because he didn't get the action on climate change he promised.

He was like Rudd in that manner. Lots of promises, little outcome.

 

[Slippery Pete]

So unless you're claiming that One Nation voters were directing their preferences to Labor candidates, which would be an interesting theory to hear then I don't see how appealing to a base who's voters are already secure via preferences would be the key to winning en election?

Hanson was very vocal about punishing the left-leaning Liberals by directing preferences to Labor in seats outside QLD.

I think you’re underestimating just how much ill-feeling there is toward the Liberal party in this cohort of minor-party voters. Their preferences would’ve been all over the shop.

This is not a failure of “right-wing” ideology from the Liberal party. To believe that you’d have to ignore the results of the last three elections.

It’s a failure of strategy, and leadership. These ”freedom” parties should not exist. Regardless of where their preferences go, their platforms rally disenfranchised (mostly Liberal) voters. They damage the brand of the Liberal party, whichever way you look at it.

John Howard recognized this in the late 90s, during ON’s first incarnation, and was able to knock it on the head by pulling back in those disenfranchised voters.

I agree with your assessment about winning the middle, but it is not like we have ended up with that! Anthony Albanese is not the middle! He a left-faction member of the nation’s major left-wing party.

So we’ve got a clear left-wing majority in federal parliament after less than a third of the country first preferenced Labor, and somehow the answer to that, is for the party in opposition to be more left wing too?

 

[Cap]

Hanson was very vocal about punishing the left-leaning Liberals by directing preferences to Labor in seats outside QLD.

I think you’re underestimating just how much ill-feeling there is toward the Liberal party in this cohort of minor-party voters. Their preferences would’ve been all over the shop.

This is not a failure of “right-wing” ideology from the Liberal party. To believe that you’d have to ignore the results of the last three elections.

It’s a failure of strategy, and leadership. These ”freedom” parties should not exist. Regardless of where their preferences go, their platforms rally disenfranchised (mostly Liberal) voters. They damage the brand of the Liberal party, whichever way you look at it.

John Howard recognized this in the late 90s, during ON’s first incarnation, and was able to knock it on the head by pulling back in those disenfranchised voters.

I agree with your assessment about winning the middle, but it is not like we have ended up with that! Anthony Albanese is not the middle! He a left-faction member of the nation’s major left-wing party.

So we’ve got a clear left-wing majority in federal parliament after less than a third of the country first preferenced Labor, and somehow the answer to that, is for the party in opposition to be more left wing too?

You have to ignore the overwhelming results in this election

Because of other elections in the past?

You really have a genuine problem with the passing of time don't you, do you prescribe to the block universe theory?

 

[Vader]

What utter hogwash, Turdbull haemorrhaged votes big time at the previous election and stunk with the electorate....absolutely no way the LNP had any chance until he was removed. Useless campaigner in every sense of the word campaigner, refused to do any campaigning in the afternoon, had to have his afternoon siesta did the Wentworth waffler.

Like Rudd an absolute stain, all he ever had was waffle waffle waffle. Like Rudd showed his true colours after he got ditched.

Yes... his Govt stank... because he was unable to achieve anything - because the right wing nutters kept sabotaging him at every turn.

Take the NEG for example. It was an excellent policy, one which even achieved bipartisan support. Turnbull won support for it in his own party room, only for the right wing nutters to backflip when the ALP announced that they would support it. The NEG was thus DOA, entirely due to the right wing nutters - and the Libs never managed to come up with an energy policy to replace it. Indeed, their policy from that time onward was not to have a policy.

The NEG is an obvious example, but it is far from the only example.

Turnbull had the makings of an excellent PM, but led one of the least effective Govts of all time due to the self-sabotaging from within his own party's right wing ranks. It was not his fault that his Govt failed, it was the likes of Abbott, Canavan and Christensen who were entirely to blame.

 

[Slippery Pete]

You have to ignore the overwhelming results in this election

They werent overwhelming.

Labor got a lower primary vote than it did in 2019, but has ended up with a majority.

That is a win on political strategy, not ideology.

 

[Cap]

They werent overwhelming.

Labor got a lower primary vote than it did in 2019, but has ended up with a clear majority.

That is a win on political strategy, not ideology.

Lol.

2013

LIB: 37.7 - Abbott

LABOR: 30.11

2016

LIB: 42.04 - Turnball

LABOR: 34.7

2019

LIB: 41.44 - Morrison (6 months...)

LABOR: 33.34

2022 (to date)

LIB 35.7 ( Morrison).

LAB 32.8

*I've got these from Wikipedia so people are welcome to double check.

2022 sees the rise of the teal independents all rejecting right wing policies like undermining Climate change , ignoring equality, picking on trans kids and ICAC. Greens are up as well doing the same thing.

Why haven't Labors support fallen of a cliff?

Once again your argument is on the Fringe, almost laughable in it is ridiculousness

 

[Cap]

This was the line spread by the independents and it worked, but is that what Pembo actually said, I’d like to hear the quotes. Did he say the Libs moved too far right and hence lost or were they far right compared to the platform the independents were running? Did he give examples of moving further right.

If someone could list the policies the government moved further right in the last term that would help justify it. And before anyone brings up ScoMo bringing coal into parliament, that was the term prior to him winning the election.

He hand picked an anti trans activist.

There is the start of your list. The rest you can literally get from every single media outlet covering the news.

Except Sky of course.

 

[George Kramer]

He hand picked an anti trans activist.

There is the start of your list. The rest you can literally get from every single media outlet covering the news.

Except Sky of course.

So you'd have that list handy then as I haven't seen them, I have Apple News which has all major stories and no I don't watch Sky News.