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- Apr 22, 2006
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So this is pretty much a direct rip of the concept behind Hockey's Future. Although I haven't gone to the same lengths as the HF reviewers do - no numerical gradings etc - the same basic concept applies. I've attempted to rank our prospects on the basis of their talent, future ceiling, position (one of the reasons why Mitch Brown is No 1, for example) and time in the system. I've also taken a pretty hardline on what constitutes a prospect. Guys like Selwood and Varcoe who are young but are best 22 are out, as are fringe players like Lonergan and Blake. Drum didn't make the cut because he had four seasons of senior football under his belt before he arrived here.
I've been working on it on and off for about six months and so some of the comments might seem a bit dated in that respect. I guess a bit like that BF staple - the phantom draft - it's also not really clear what exactly this is supposed to do, it reflects my view on the player, where I think they sit relative to each other but also their long-term future at the club. One of the reasons I did it is because I understand a lot of people don't get to see the VFL and so our youngsters are a bit of a mystery. Not saying I'm an avid VFL fan who gets down there every week but have been to a fair few games over the last couple of seasons and in addition have seen some of these players at U18 level as well. Where my firsthand knowledge is lacking I've leaned on other sources like the prospectus or the opinion(s) of people I trust as judges of football talent.
Anyway, enough about me, on with the show:
1. Mitch Brown
KPF 20
196/85
Taken at #17 in the 2008 National Draft, Mitch Brown is the mystery man of the Geelong prospect pool. Picked on the back of an U18 season in which he was listed by Sandy mid-year after dominating for Mentone Grammar, Brown has played just a handful of VFL games in two seasons due to a wretched run with injury. Having kicked eight goals in four VFL practice matches in 2008, the youngster seemed to be fulfilling his high draft ranking when - just short of halftime - he suffered a broken leg and a dislocated ankle in the first VFL H&A game of the season. Complications to this injury delayed his start to the 2009 season and, after playing six games, he suffered a shoulder injury that required surgery, thus ending 2009 as well.
Despite this, what Brown has shown is tantalising. Mobile and strong-marking, at 196/85 he has the body of a typical modern power forward and bags of five and four goals in the VFL in 2009 suggest the football ability to go with it. If he can stay fit, Brown is Geelong’s long-term prospect at CHF and a Brown/Hawkins combination should have fans genuinely excited.
2. Daniel Menzel
Utility 19
188/79
One of the bolters of the 2009 draft, Menzel was taken at #17 by Geelong after an excellent stint for SA in the carnival at half-back. A quiet, injury-interrupted preseason meant he flew under the radar for a lot of Geelong supporters, but as soon as he reached VFL level he made an impression - including a 4-goal haul against Coburg and the sealer against reigning premiers North Ballarat. His excellent form was rewarded with an AFL call-up; he potted 4 goals over 3 games playing across half-forward.
Menzel simply oozes class. He is a superb kick (highest kicking efficiency at the 2009 Champs and a staggering 82% at AFL level) and an excellent all-round user of the football. Although not lightning quick he’s not slow and is strong overhead. If there’s a criticism it’s that he’s not hard enough at the ball, but that will change over time. Perhaps best of all he’s genuinely versatile - although the club has talked about a future in midfield he’s played across both half-forward and half-back with excellent results at both junior and senior level.
After his impressive AFL debut last season it’s likely that Menzel will push for games this year. If he does it’ll almost certainly be as a half-forward. Like a lot of current prospects the club has earmarked him as an eventual midfielder, but in reality he could play virtually anywhere. Expect him to be a regular in 2-3 seasons time.
3. Billie Smedts
Utility 18
189/76
Procured with Pick #12 in the 2010 Draft, Smedts can proudly claim to be the first return on The Ablett Defection for the GFC. He can also claim to be have been a matchwinner in his injury-interrupted U/18 season with the Falcons and a solid contributor to the Country side that won the Championship.
A genuine utility who was used in attack (11 goals in the first two TAC games of the year before being moved further up the field), midfield (30 possessions in Round 3) and defence (conceded one goal against in three games for Country), Smedts is an impressive athlete and natural footballer with no obvious weakness in his game. His side-step is a thing of beauty and while his kicking could improve his efficiency rating off the boot (hovers above 70%) is entirely respectable.
When drafted Scott described Smedts as being a future midfielder, but as his junior career shows he could reasonably be expected to play anywhere on the field and have an impact. Combined with Menzel - a player of similar quality and positional versatility - and the Cats look to have their future midfield set.
4. Mitch Duncan
Mid/Forward 19
187/82
Duncan had quite the resume going into the 2009 draft - U18 AA, member of a dominant WA team, multiple appearances for East Perth seniors in the WAFL - but slid to Geelong at #28. Played variously as a midfielder and lead-up forward in the juniors, he cracked a gig in the seniors from Round 1 as a half-forward and ended up playing eight games for the year.
He’s got ice running through his veins. A brief highlight reel of Duncan’s 2010 - starting with his first touch in the NAB Cup, where he sold a bit of candy to a Roos defender and then calmly slotted the goal from 30m out - shows a litany of clutch goals in which the youngster was totally unfazed by the pressure of tight games. His class was immediately apparent. Although he was not quite as brilliant when given a more ‘inside’ role in the VFL his general professionalism suggest the weaknesses in his game - largely a taste for the outside - will soon disappear.
Battled a hip injury late in 2010 but has again been outstanding during the NAB Cup and looks almost certain to play Round 1. Long-term is being groomed as a midfield prospect and will certainly play there in the VFL; at senior level might get some rotations through the middle but expect him to play predominantly as a half-forward. Would be staggered if he does not notch 100+ games in the hoops.
5. Steven Moltop
Forward/Mid 20
182/70
After a strong 2008 season in which he played in both the U16 and U18 carnivals for the Territory, Motlop was snagged by the Cats as a very bottom-bottom-ager with #39 in the draft. Dodgy shoulders limited him to a handful of VFL games, but he was the standout performer for Geelong in the 2010 preseason, which earned him a call-up in the seniors in Round 2. 19 minutes in he popped a shoulder again and only played six more games for the season - all in the VFL - bagging nine goals in the process.
Motlop - brother of Daniel etc - is often compared to his brother but it’s misplaced. Knows how to kick a goal and is a deceptively strong mark but also has real pace and looks to be more of a wing than a crumbing forward. His barnstorming 2009 preseason also suggests he’s got a bit more work ethic than his wayward sibling.
His 2010 preseason form has been solid without being spectacular, and you’d expect Motlop’s particular traits - pace, skill, a hint of the unpredictable - to make more of an impact at senior level. He’s also put on a bit of weight and no longer looks like an anorexic teenager next to his teammates in the hoops. Long term expect him to be Varcoe 2.0; short term, look form him to play a handful of games this season.
6. Cameron Guthrie
Mid/Def 18
186/79
Another to roll off the Calder production line, Guthrie played in both of the Cannons back-to-back premierships, played in 16 games at TAC level last season and took home a B&F as a result. He also played five games for Vic Metro across half-back in the Champs.
Although blue-collar is a bit too harsh it gives you some idea of Guthrie’s style of game. There’s nothing flashy about this kid - he’s just a very, very good footballer. The single quality constantly highlighted by both external judges and the man himself is the quality of his decision-making - Guthrie always hits the right target, demonstrated by him having the highest disposal efficiency at the carnival of any Metro player last season. His Combine testing also reveals a decent leap although he fared poorly at the endurance and ‘clean hands’ tests.
Guthrie immediately impressed in the NAB Cup - alongside Duncan a standout in the opening round-robin - and it looks as if the quality of his decision-making will stand the increased speed of senior football. Before those games I thought we’d be waiting a while to see him at AFL level - now I’m not so sure.
7. Taylor Hunt
Def/Mid 20
183/84
Nuggety small who was the Cats last pick - #49 overall - in 2008. A running defender for Sandy and Vic Metro, he continued that role in the VFL in 2009 but gradually began to move into midfield in 2010. His excellent form saw him play seven AFL games last season, averaging 15 disposals and two tackles a game.
Hunt’s primary asset is his pace. Blisteringly quick, he would be alongside Varcoe and Wojcinski as the fastest players at the club. His decision-making and kicking have steadily improved although he’s prone to taking the safe option. Not the most defensively solid player, either.
Hunt is generally projected as being a long-term option on halfback; I disagree and think his future is in midfield. He’s already played a fair bit in the VFL there and shows a strong resemblance to Nathan Foley at his best - using his pace to simply blow through the contest and out into open space. Hasn’t shown sparkling form in the preseason but should still be pushing for games this year.
8. Dawson Simpson
Ruck 22
206/105
Taken with #34 in 2007, Simpson is a long term ruck prospect who is being groomed to become the eventual No 1 at the Cattery. Having spent his first two seasons in the VFL he got his chance in 2010, playing two senior games. It was a tough baptism for Simpson - Fremantle and West Coast (perhaps more accurately Sandilands, Naitanui and Cox) at Subiaco. If Simpson didn’t set the world alight - averaging seven disposals and five hitouts - he didn’t disgrace himself, either.
There are two types of modern ruckmen: the leaping (often undersized) athlete and the truly enormous dinosaur. At 206cm and 105kg Simpson is very much of the latter category although, unlike some others of his breed, he’s a pretty decent footballer in his own right. His height and his strength are his advantages and while his tap work is not exceptional it’s not bad. He’s strong beneath his knees and has adequate disposal. He’s tough - concealed a fractured wrist during his final junior year out of fear the injury would scupper his draft chances - and has a bit of aggression, a welcome addition given his size.
Simpson is never going to reach Dean Cox levels; but he could well be a solid No 1 ruck in the vein of Mark Jamar. While you’d think it unlikely he’d play more than a handful of games this year, the looming retirement of Ottens should provide him with opportunities in the future.
9. Tom Gillies
KPD 21
192/88
Recruited from the Dandenong Stingrays with Pick #33 in 2008, Gillies had an impressive record when he arrived at the Cattery - TAC Cup Team of the Year fullback, Rays B&F and a member of a losing Grand Final side. He backed this up in his first season by playing six games in the seniors and winning the best first year player award. His 2010 was quieter, although he was one of only a few players to appear in every VFL game for the year.
A born-and-bred fullback - an almost extinct species in modern football - Gillies is strong on his man, strong overhead and reads the play well. He also has an attacking side and is willing to run hard out of defence, using his tidy disposal to clear the ball. Geelong are grooming him as the long term replacement for Matthew Scarlett and whilst it’s unfair to compare a third-year player to a once-in-a-generation champion, the combination of miserly defence and attacking flair is an exciting one that invites said comparison.
Gillies was described the Geelong coaching staff as having had a disappointing year, but this was surely as much due to his own extremely high standards as any doubt on his future. With the potential for a bit more support down back, expect Gillies to have a stronger season in the VFL; more senior games are not out of the question although the recruitment of Drum and even Smedts may frustrate this ambition in the short term.
I've been working on it on and off for about six months and so some of the comments might seem a bit dated in that respect. I guess a bit like that BF staple - the phantom draft - it's also not really clear what exactly this is supposed to do, it reflects my view on the player, where I think they sit relative to each other but also their long-term future at the club. One of the reasons I did it is because I understand a lot of people don't get to see the VFL and so our youngsters are a bit of a mystery. Not saying I'm an avid VFL fan who gets down there every week but have been to a fair few games over the last couple of seasons and in addition have seen some of these players at U18 level as well. Where my firsthand knowledge is lacking I've leaned on other sources like the prospectus or the opinion(s) of people I trust as judges of football talent.
Anyway, enough about me, on with the show:
- Mitch Brown
- Daniel Menzel
- Billie Smedts
- Mitch Duncan
- Steven Moltop
- Cameron Guthrie
- Taylor Hunt
- Dawson Simpson
- Tom Gillies
- Simon Hogan
- Trent West
- Nathan Vardy
- Allen Christensen
- George Horlin-Smith
- Josh Cowan
- Jack Weston
- Jordan Schroder
- Jonathan Simpkin
- Joshua Walker
- George Burbury
- Ben Johnson
- Jesse Stringer
- Ryan Bathie
1. Mitch Brown
KPF 20
196/85
Taken at #17 in the 2008 National Draft, Mitch Brown is the mystery man of the Geelong prospect pool. Picked on the back of an U18 season in which he was listed by Sandy mid-year after dominating for Mentone Grammar, Brown has played just a handful of VFL games in two seasons due to a wretched run with injury. Having kicked eight goals in four VFL practice matches in 2008, the youngster seemed to be fulfilling his high draft ranking when - just short of halftime - he suffered a broken leg and a dislocated ankle in the first VFL H&A game of the season. Complications to this injury delayed his start to the 2009 season and, after playing six games, he suffered a shoulder injury that required surgery, thus ending 2009 as well.
Despite this, what Brown has shown is tantalising. Mobile and strong-marking, at 196/85 he has the body of a typical modern power forward and bags of five and four goals in the VFL in 2009 suggest the football ability to go with it. If he can stay fit, Brown is Geelong’s long-term prospect at CHF and a Brown/Hawkins combination should have fans genuinely excited.
2. Daniel Menzel
Utility 19
188/79
One of the bolters of the 2009 draft, Menzel was taken at #17 by Geelong after an excellent stint for SA in the carnival at half-back. A quiet, injury-interrupted preseason meant he flew under the radar for a lot of Geelong supporters, but as soon as he reached VFL level he made an impression - including a 4-goal haul against Coburg and the sealer against reigning premiers North Ballarat. His excellent form was rewarded with an AFL call-up; he potted 4 goals over 3 games playing across half-forward.
Menzel simply oozes class. He is a superb kick (highest kicking efficiency at the 2009 Champs and a staggering 82% at AFL level) and an excellent all-round user of the football. Although not lightning quick he’s not slow and is strong overhead. If there’s a criticism it’s that he’s not hard enough at the ball, but that will change over time. Perhaps best of all he’s genuinely versatile - although the club has talked about a future in midfield he’s played across both half-forward and half-back with excellent results at both junior and senior level.
After his impressive AFL debut last season it’s likely that Menzel will push for games this year. If he does it’ll almost certainly be as a half-forward. Like a lot of current prospects the club has earmarked him as an eventual midfielder, but in reality he could play virtually anywhere. Expect him to be a regular in 2-3 seasons time.
3. Billie Smedts
Utility 18
189/76
Procured with Pick #12 in the 2010 Draft, Smedts can proudly claim to be the first return on The Ablett Defection for the GFC. He can also claim to be have been a matchwinner in his injury-interrupted U/18 season with the Falcons and a solid contributor to the Country side that won the Championship.
A genuine utility who was used in attack (11 goals in the first two TAC games of the year before being moved further up the field), midfield (30 possessions in Round 3) and defence (conceded one goal against in three games for Country), Smedts is an impressive athlete and natural footballer with no obvious weakness in his game. His side-step is a thing of beauty and while his kicking could improve his efficiency rating off the boot (hovers above 70%) is entirely respectable.
When drafted Scott described Smedts as being a future midfielder, but as his junior career shows he could reasonably be expected to play anywhere on the field and have an impact. Combined with Menzel - a player of similar quality and positional versatility - and the Cats look to have their future midfield set.
4. Mitch Duncan
Mid/Forward 19
187/82
Duncan had quite the resume going into the 2009 draft - U18 AA, member of a dominant WA team, multiple appearances for East Perth seniors in the WAFL - but slid to Geelong at #28. Played variously as a midfielder and lead-up forward in the juniors, he cracked a gig in the seniors from Round 1 as a half-forward and ended up playing eight games for the year.
He’s got ice running through his veins. A brief highlight reel of Duncan’s 2010 - starting with his first touch in the NAB Cup, where he sold a bit of candy to a Roos defender and then calmly slotted the goal from 30m out - shows a litany of clutch goals in which the youngster was totally unfazed by the pressure of tight games. His class was immediately apparent. Although he was not quite as brilliant when given a more ‘inside’ role in the VFL his general professionalism suggest the weaknesses in his game - largely a taste for the outside - will soon disappear.
Battled a hip injury late in 2010 but has again been outstanding during the NAB Cup and looks almost certain to play Round 1. Long-term is being groomed as a midfield prospect and will certainly play there in the VFL; at senior level might get some rotations through the middle but expect him to play predominantly as a half-forward. Would be staggered if he does not notch 100+ games in the hoops.
5. Steven Moltop
Forward/Mid 20
182/70
After a strong 2008 season in which he played in both the U16 and U18 carnivals for the Territory, Motlop was snagged by the Cats as a very bottom-bottom-ager with #39 in the draft. Dodgy shoulders limited him to a handful of VFL games, but he was the standout performer for Geelong in the 2010 preseason, which earned him a call-up in the seniors in Round 2. 19 minutes in he popped a shoulder again and only played six more games for the season - all in the VFL - bagging nine goals in the process.
Motlop - brother of Daniel etc - is often compared to his brother but it’s misplaced. Knows how to kick a goal and is a deceptively strong mark but also has real pace and looks to be more of a wing than a crumbing forward. His barnstorming 2009 preseason also suggests he’s got a bit more work ethic than his wayward sibling.
His 2010 preseason form has been solid without being spectacular, and you’d expect Motlop’s particular traits - pace, skill, a hint of the unpredictable - to make more of an impact at senior level. He’s also put on a bit of weight and no longer looks like an anorexic teenager next to his teammates in the hoops. Long term expect him to be Varcoe 2.0; short term, look form him to play a handful of games this season.
6. Cameron Guthrie
Mid/Def 18
186/79
Another to roll off the Calder production line, Guthrie played in both of the Cannons back-to-back premierships, played in 16 games at TAC level last season and took home a B&F as a result. He also played five games for Vic Metro across half-back in the Champs.
Although blue-collar is a bit too harsh it gives you some idea of Guthrie’s style of game. There’s nothing flashy about this kid - he’s just a very, very good footballer. The single quality constantly highlighted by both external judges and the man himself is the quality of his decision-making - Guthrie always hits the right target, demonstrated by him having the highest disposal efficiency at the carnival of any Metro player last season. His Combine testing also reveals a decent leap although he fared poorly at the endurance and ‘clean hands’ tests.
Guthrie immediately impressed in the NAB Cup - alongside Duncan a standout in the opening round-robin - and it looks as if the quality of his decision-making will stand the increased speed of senior football. Before those games I thought we’d be waiting a while to see him at AFL level - now I’m not so sure.
7. Taylor Hunt
Def/Mid 20
183/84
Nuggety small who was the Cats last pick - #49 overall - in 2008. A running defender for Sandy and Vic Metro, he continued that role in the VFL in 2009 but gradually began to move into midfield in 2010. His excellent form saw him play seven AFL games last season, averaging 15 disposals and two tackles a game.
Hunt’s primary asset is his pace. Blisteringly quick, he would be alongside Varcoe and Wojcinski as the fastest players at the club. His decision-making and kicking have steadily improved although he’s prone to taking the safe option. Not the most defensively solid player, either.
Hunt is generally projected as being a long-term option on halfback; I disagree and think his future is in midfield. He’s already played a fair bit in the VFL there and shows a strong resemblance to Nathan Foley at his best - using his pace to simply blow through the contest and out into open space. Hasn’t shown sparkling form in the preseason but should still be pushing for games this year.
8. Dawson Simpson
Ruck 22
206/105
Taken with #34 in 2007, Simpson is a long term ruck prospect who is being groomed to become the eventual No 1 at the Cattery. Having spent his first two seasons in the VFL he got his chance in 2010, playing two senior games. It was a tough baptism for Simpson - Fremantle and West Coast (perhaps more accurately Sandilands, Naitanui and Cox) at Subiaco. If Simpson didn’t set the world alight - averaging seven disposals and five hitouts - he didn’t disgrace himself, either.
There are two types of modern ruckmen: the leaping (often undersized) athlete and the truly enormous dinosaur. At 206cm and 105kg Simpson is very much of the latter category although, unlike some others of his breed, he’s a pretty decent footballer in his own right. His height and his strength are his advantages and while his tap work is not exceptional it’s not bad. He’s strong beneath his knees and has adequate disposal. He’s tough - concealed a fractured wrist during his final junior year out of fear the injury would scupper his draft chances - and has a bit of aggression, a welcome addition given his size.
Simpson is never going to reach Dean Cox levels; but he could well be a solid No 1 ruck in the vein of Mark Jamar. While you’d think it unlikely he’d play more than a handful of games this year, the looming retirement of Ottens should provide him with opportunities in the future.
9. Tom Gillies
KPD 21
192/88
Recruited from the Dandenong Stingrays with Pick #33 in 2008, Gillies had an impressive record when he arrived at the Cattery - TAC Cup Team of the Year fullback, Rays B&F and a member of a losing Grand Final side. He backed this up in his first season by playing six games in the seniors and winning the best first year player award. His 2010 was quieter, although he was one of only a few players to appear in every VFL game for the year.
A born-and-bred fullback - an almost extinct species in modern football - Gillies is strong on his man, strong overhead and reads the play well. He also has an attacking side and is willing to run hard out of defence, using his tidy disposal to clear the ball. Geelong are grooming him as the long term replacement for Matthew Scarlett and whilst it’s unfair to compare a third-year player to a once-in-a-generation champion, the combination of miserly defence and attacking flair is an exciting one that invites said comparison.
Gillies was described the Geelong coaching staff as having had a disappointing year, but this was surely as much due to his own extremely high standards as any doubt on his future. With the potential for a bit more support down back, expect Gillies to have a stronger season in the VFL; more senior games are not out of the question although the recruitment of Drum and even Smedts may frustrate this ambition in the short term.