How does Labor win the next federal election/elections to come?

[Nuggs Bunny]

The ALP already wins SE QLD, they lose votes north of the Sunshine Coast. The primary concern of these electorates is steady employment because the driving industries, namely pulling s**t out of the ground and putting it on a boat, are inherently unstable. For the ALP to successfully win these seats or at least make a good attempt of pork barrelling them, there needs to be an obvious gesture at creating and maintaining employment in the region. If they're not going to do that they might as well forget about winning those seats and concentrate on other areas of the country with different demographics.

Australian thermal coal exports are on the way out in the forseeable future, when they wind up the people in those communities will leave and the electoral borders will likely change to reflect the reduce population numbers. It is not the end of the world if the ALP cannot win these seats back.

 

[Kwality]

The ALP already wins SE QLD, they lose votes north of the Sunshine Coast. The primary concern of these electorates is steady employment because the driving industries, namely pulling sh*t out of the ground and putting it on a boat, are inherently unstable. For the ALP to successfully win these seats or at least make a good attempt of pork barrelling them, there needs to be an obvious gesture at creating and maintaining employment in the region. If they're not going to do that they might as well forget about winning those seats and concentrate on other areas of the country with different demographics.

Australian thermal coal exports are on the way out in the forseeable future, when they wind up the people in those communities will leave and the electoral borders will likely change to reflect the reduce population numbers. It is not the end of the world if the ALP cannot win these seats back.

Mining is inherently unstable: in the next parliamentary term ?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

The ALP already wins SE QLD, they lose votes north of the Sunshine Coast.

Huh? They routinely lose the entire Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Scenic Rim, Moreton Bay, Redlands, Bayside, western Brisbane and the electorate of Brisbane itself. No other capital city CBD is governed by the Liberals. Not to mention they got slammed hard in the outer suburbs in the last election, nearly losing a stronghold like Blair. There's a massive amount of ground they can make up in SEQ.

There aren't all that many seats north of the Sunshine Coast anyway. Only 8/30 wholly outside SEQ.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Huh? They routinely lose the entire Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Scenic Rim, Moreton Bay, Redlands, Bayside, western Brisbane and the electorate of Brisbane itself. No other capital city CBD is governed by the Liberals. Not to mention they got slammed hard in the outer suburbs in the last election, nearly losing a stronghold like Blair. There's a massive amount of ground they can make up in SEQ.

There aren't all that many seats north of the Sunshine Coast anyway. Only 8/30 wholly outside SEQ.

Looking at the results of the 2020 state election and the changes in polling since, I'd be pretty confident the ALP will comfortably win a majority in SEQ, even without coming close in any of the high personal net worth seats.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Looking at the results of the 2020 state election and the changes in polling since, I'd be pretty confident the ALP will comfortably win a majority in SEQ, even without coming close in any of the high personal net worth seats.

We'll see. The seat of Brisbane is certainly in play, as is Forde, but I can't see any other seat in the areas I mentioned above flipping, besides Moreton Bay's three electorates (DaRick might have better insights into that though). The margins are pretty high and the people are pretty conservative. Except Ryan I suppose, but Julian Simmonds is a pretty strong campaigner and has the advantage of incumbency this time.

 

[kranky al]

State ownership by the head of the Part and their mates which equates to billionaires.

Well that sounds a lot like trumps government.

 

[kranky al]

Did a job this week for one of the more wealthy blokes in wa. Owns several cattle properties, a fishing flotilla, and high end restaurants amongst other things.

he is voting labor for the first time ever this federal election. Thinks scummo is an incompetent halfwit.

 

[kranky al]

Mining is inherently unstable: in the next parliamentary term ?

Yeah china hate us.

They are going to go all out to teach us a lesson and they are quite prepared to cut their nose off to spite their face to do it.

over the next two years i plan on working my arse off to retire all debt because unless we get a new government - thats prepared to make up with the chinese, we have a tsunami of s**t headed our way.

we have too many eggs in that basket and to piss off the old mate whos buying all those eggs is just unbelievably stupid. The crowning nugget of incompetent idiotic things in the large list of them scomo has in his resume.

 

[Gigantic]

Come on Albo

You've got to try harder than that

 

[tandino]

Come on Albo

You've got to try harder than that

A white woman from Scotland Island isn't my idea of diversity.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

A white woman from Scotland Island isn't my idea of diversity.

it is when there were only men beforehand

 

[tandino]

it is when there were only men beforehand

She's already in Parliament. If she can't win that third spot, that's on her.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

She's already in Parliament. If she can't win that third spot, that's on her.

sorry - thought you were talking someone else

for senate spots, i legit dont care. ranking is based upon exposure, support, and likelihood of success. if you're third on a ticket, there usually is a reason

 

[HairyO]

Come on Albo

You've got to try harder than that

Wow that is atrocious. Parachuting a rich white Catholic (met her husband at the World Catholic Youth Congress or some s**t) in to the seat is the very same thing as recruiting a local who is the child of refugees and has worked in the area for years.

 

[Gigantic]

Wow that is atrocious. Parachuting a rich white Catholic (met her husband at the World Catholic Youth Congress or some sh*t) in to the seat is the very same thing as recruiting a local who is the child of refugees and has worked in the area for years.

Labor keep scoring own goals on this. It's like they want to make it the hill they want to die on.

 

[RW]

One of the comments on Tu Le's Facebook page, posted without comment:

What is different between ALP and Communist Party of Vietnam in Ha Noi?
You need to have a bunch of friends in Head Office in order to get a place in pre-election.
That was why Fed and NSW ALP were rejected last few elections.

 

[NSWCROW]

LOL we're still on this molehill ??


Geez imagine if it was the OTHER mob....
Oh wait, that already happened when Grimlock stamped his feet like the little petulant fat *en slug he is at the last election and no one gave a *.



yeah i see ya

 

[Mindtraveller]

Don't agree with the KK move, but how many lawyers are in politics?

 

[Sttew]

Yeah china hate us.

They are going to go all out to teach us a lesson and they are quite prepared to cut their nose off to spite their face to do it.

over the next two years i plan on working my arse off to retire all debt because unless we get a new government - thats prepared to make up with the chinese, we have a tsunami of sh*t headed our way.

we have too many eggs in that basket and to piss off the old mate whos buying all those eggs is just unbelievably stupid. The crowning nugget of incompetent idiotic things in the large list of them scomo has in his resume.

That’s fairly naive. China has entered the next phase of its evolution as the worlds dominant power. It will reclaim Taiwan. It will ban the English language in its universities and has already started the process. It is amassing military tools like no country has ever seen. It is a few years away from sourcing good quality iron ore from a country other than Australia. China doesn’t need Australia and we need to get used to that.

Australia was a mere pawn that was used to help China get to this point.

 

[kranky al]

That’s fairly naive. China has entered the next phase of its evolution as the worlds dominant power. It will reclaim Taiwan. It will ban the English language in its universities and has already started the process. It is amassing military tools like no country has ever seen. It is a few years away from sourcing good quality iron ore from a country other than Australia. China doesn’t need Australia and we need to get used to that.

Australia was a mere pawn that was used to help China get to this point.

We have better quality ore and are closer and are stable.

Since we pissed them off they have quite literally killed off several of our industries exporting to them.

Denialiam

 

[Gigantic]

Don't agree with the KK move, but how many lawyers are in politics?

Plenty, at least with corporate backgrounds

How many practice in migration/admin law and represent (or want to represent) an electorate that has a population of 60% migrants? I don't know of any currently sitting in Parliament, but there surely wouldn't be many.

 

[Sttew]

We have better quality ore and are closer and are stable.

Since we pissed them off they have quite literally killed off several of our industries exporting to them.

Denialiam

We have better iron ore at the moment but China has invested heavily in mining facilities in Guinea (Africa) and Brazil, and eventually (could be three years, or 5), they will tell Australia to get lost.

How China is moving beyond Australia for its iron ore hunger

We take a look at how China has been investing in other nations to meet its hunger fir iron ore and how it may affect the wider iron market.

www.mining-technology.com

It's on us for putting all our eggs in one basket in terms of exporting grains, wine etc.

If China can so callously and dramatically turn off the Australian import tap over a diplomatic spat, what's to say they won't do it again and again?

 

[HairyO]

We have better iron ore at the moment but China has invested heavily in mining facilities in Guinea (Africa) and Brazil, and eventually (could be three years, or 5), they will tell Australia to get lost.

How China is moving beyond Australia for its iron ore hunger

We take a look at how China has been investing in other nations to meet its hunger fir iron ore and how it may affect the wider iron market.

www.mining-technology.com

It's on us for putting all our eggs in one basket in terms of exporting grains, wine etc.

If China can so callously and dramatically turn off the Australian import tap over a diplomatic spat, what's to say they won't do it again and again?

Australia has been taking short term hits but a number of our exporters have started looking elsewhere.

The exporters got lazy because China said they would buy everything. Why bother looking for other buyers? That didnt mean there was no demand.

Their spat will make our econony stronger and theirs weaker. Them looking elsewhere drove up their prices then they still bought some from us when they couldnt fully replace us.

 

[DaRick]

We'll see. The seat of Brisbane is certainly in play, as is Forde, but I can't see any other seat in the areas I mentioned above flipping, besides Moreton Bay's three electorates (DaRick might have better insights into that though). The margins are pretty high and the people are pretty conservative. Except Ryan I suppose, but Julian Simmonds is a pretty strong campaigner and has the advantage of incumbency this time.

Johnny Bananas

Are you referring to Petrie, Lilley and Longman?

Petrie: My electorate. Pretty much middle Australia (around the mean in terms of income, full of professionals/tradies/retirees), roughly centrist (voted for Gillard in 2010 and the LNP barely won in 2013, while their margin increased under Turnbull in 2016, around the mean in terms of % of YES for gay marriage voters), but quite politically disengaged and heavily polarised - some suburbs (like mine) are heavily ALP, whereas others (Carseldine) strongly lean LNP.

I know the local MP (Luke Howarth) well - he's not particularly charismatic, but he impresses as a genuinely pleasant person (rather than a cynical manipulator ala Pauline Hanson) and is reasonably honourable, keeping his promises where possible (offering to be a referee and putting in a reference). He is also reasonably well-regarded by those who know him, but IMO policy-wise he's Dutton-lite and impresses me as the sort of guy who thinks you can solve the Manus issue by painting the joint with smiley faces (that "positive spin on homelessness" comment kind of sums up the man - fairly positive as a personality, but wary of change in the classically conservative tradition). In fairness, he was at the Women's March, but again that strikes me as him trying to be accommodating (although again not in a deliberately cynical way), rather than him displaying a commitment to substantial change RE how women are treated in Parliament.

At this point, I don't (yet) feel a significant appetite for change in the electorate. Since 1987, to win government you need to win Petrie, so that would normally not be a great sign, but this election leadup is sui generis due to COVID, the (likely) double-dip recession and whatever fallout has come from that, so it may not be necessary to win.

That said, when QLD swings, it swings hard, and I expect his margin to be eaten up considerably due to 1) fewer people voting for ON/UAP, 2) no Fraser Anning (thank the stars) and 3) preferences not swinging towards the LNP as much because Albo, while unconvincing, lacks Shorten's baggage up here, while Morrison has seemingly lost some of his appeal. That said, he managed to increase his own PV in the last election, so I still expect him to retain for now.

Lilley: The most left-wing and progressive of the three electorates. Wayne Swan is no longer there, and it is a marginal seat, but I fail to see why the LNP would win it now. Barring some unforeseen event, or a particularly unpopular local MP (of that I have no idea), the ALP should retain.

Longman: Full of retirees, socially conservative, really don't like those they see as being overly neoliberal or socially progressive (both Gillard and Turnbull were punished there). ScoMo ought to retain since he doesn't fit that category, but retirees are vulnerable to COVID and Delta is a particularly dangerous variant.

How much danger ScoMo is of losing this seat would depend on COVID's spread, and his perceived culpability in such. If he's merely perceived as culpable, his margin will be reduced significantly (especially in light of ON/UAP's reduced impact) but he won't necessarily lose the seat. If Delta does (god forbid) get into QLD and into Longman in particular, all bets are off. Merely the fear of COVID getting into Longman may be enough to cost him the seat. campbell IIRC is a local here, so she might know more than I do.

Dickson isn't really a Moreton Bay electorate so I haven't bothered discussing it until now, but Dud-ton performs well in the semi-rural areas (Samford) and poorly in the urban areas (Strathpine). IOW, there's a reason why I've been hankering for some strong Queensland leadership for some time now. IMO the electorate has deteriorated economically under his 'watchful' eye - Strathpine used to be a middle-class area, now it's lower-middle class with job agencies everywhere.

He's always a chance of losing his seat, and his PV reduced fractionally in the last election, but ON/UAP propped him up to a significant degree. Now, the ever-so loyal and reliable Clive will likely try and force him out. I don't expect UAP to do as well this time however, so he'll probably still retain since Dickson residents can't tell him from a bar of soap. From an emotional POV, I'd love him to get booted, but rationally speaking he's absolutely toxic elsewhere, so if he does get booted my dreams of some strong Queensland leadership, with the absolute electoral meltdowns that would result in multiple areas as a result (VIC, likely SA and Eastern Sydney, probably WA), will sadly go up in smoke.

 

[campbell]

Johnny Bananas

Are you referring to Petrie, Lilley and Longman?

Petrie: My electorate. Pretty much middle Australia (around the mean in terms of income, full of professionals/tradies/retirees), roughly centrist (voted for Gillard in 2010 and the LNP barely won in 2013, while their margin increased under Turnbull in 2016, around the mean in terms of % of YES for gay marriage voters), but quite politically disengaged and heavily polarised - some suburbs (like mine) are heavily ALP, whereas others (Carseldine) strongly lean LNP.

I know the local MP (Luke Howarth) well - he's not particularly charismatic, but he impresses as a genuinely pleasant person (rather than a cynical manipulator ala Pauline Hanson) and is reasonably honourable, keeping his promises where possible (offering to be a referee and putting in a reference). He is also reasonably well-regarded by those who know him, but IMO policy-wise he's Dutton-lite and impresses me as the sort of guy who thinks you can solve the Manus issue by painting the joint with smiley faces (that "positive spin on homelessness" comment kind of sums up the man - fairly positive as a personality, but wary of change in the classically conservative tradition). In fairness, he was at the Women's March, but again that strikes me as him trying to be accommodating (although again not in a deliberately cynical way), rather than him displaying a commitment to substantial change RE how women are treated in Parliament.

At this point, I don't (yet) feel a significant appetite for change in the electorate. Since 1987, to win government you need to win Petrie, so that would normally not be a great sign, but this election leadup is sui generis due to COVID, the (likely) double-dip recession and whatever fallout has come from that, so it may not be necessary to win.

That said, when QLD swings, it swings hard, and I expect his margin to be eaten up considerably due to 1) fewer people voting for ON/UAP, 2) no Fraser Anning (thank the stars) and 3) preferences not swinging towards the LNP as much because Albo, while unconvincing, lacks Shorten's baggage up here, while Morrison has seemingly lost some of his appeal. That said, he managed to increase his own PV in the last election, so I still expect him to retain for now.

Lilley: The most left-wing and progressive of the three electorates. Wayne Swan is no longer there, and it is a marginal seat, but I fail to see why the LNP would win it now. Barring some unforeseen event, or a particularly unpopular local MP (of that I have no idea), the ALP should retain.

Longman: Full of retirees, socially conservative, really don't like those they see as being overly neoliberal or socially progressive (both Gillard and Turnbull were punished there). ScoMo ought to retain since he doesn't fit that category, but retirees are vulnerable to COVID and Delta is a particularly dangerous variant.

How much danger ScoMo is of losing this seat would depend on COVID's spread, and his perceived culpability in such. If he's merely perceived as culpable, his margin will be reduced significantly (especially in light of ON/UAP's reduced impact) but he won't necessarily lose the seat. If Delta does (god forbid) get into QLD and into Longman in particular, all bets are off. Merely the fear of COVID getting into Longman may be enough to cost him the seat. campbell IIRC is a local here, so she might know more than I do.

Dickson isn't really a Moreton Bay electorate so I haven't bothered discussing it until now, but Dud-ton performs well in the semi-rural areas (Samford) and poorly in the urban areas (Strathpine). IOW, there's a reason why I've been hankering for some strong Queensland leadership for some time now. IMO the electorate has deteriorated economically under his 'watchful' eye - Strathpine used to be a middle-class area, now it's lower-middle class with job agencies everywhere.

He's always a chance of losing his seat, and his PV reduced fractionally in the last election, but ON/UAP propped him up to a significant degree. Now, the ever-so loyal and reliable Clive will likely try and force him out. I don't expect UAP to do as well this time however, so he'll probably still retain since Dickson residents can't tell him from a bar of soap. From an emotional POV, I'd love him to get booted, but rationally speaking he's absolutely toxic elsewhere, so if he does get booted my dreams of some strong Queensland leadership, with the absolute electoral meltdowns that would result in multiple areas as a result (VIC, likely SA and Eastern Sydney, probably WA), will sadly go up in smoke.

I do think LNP is gone in Longman. They blame Sco Mo for the vaccine debarcle.
They are proud Qlders, who hate being shafted.
They like Anna as they feel she has kept us safe.