Free Agency Joe Daniher [RFA to Brisbane for 1st round compensation pick]

[eth-dog]

I sympathise with this viewpoint, but disagree. Just because you couldn't get someone at Joe's level at his best doesn't mean you shouldn't have looked to minimise the damage.

Big difference between a solid deal last season versus whatever compensation you get this season if he is adamant on leaving. We'll see what happens, but IMO, based on our approach last season, we won't be paying (much) unless the club knows something we don't.

I'm still adamant that it'll go to trade. If we finish ahead of Sydney, which seems likely, I daresay they'd still be willing to trade more than the compensation, even if it involves future picks rather than 2021.

Please don't use facts in this discussion, mate. Our club won and your club lost because the deal wasn't reached, no legitimate analysis necessary!!11!!1!

It will be fascinating to see what Sydney do this off-season though. If you finish just outside the 8 you might be forced to trade your first anyway.

 

[Bjchan13]

This will be unpopular but I think Essendon did the right thing keeping him. When fit he's our best player and if he stays and we get him on the park near full time we've gotten the result we wanted, if not, yeah we get an inferior deal on the table BUT the likelihood of getting someone of Joe's quality with either pick would be very low.

Unpopular with a few but many including myself wanted him to stay, considering our current team was built around him. Him being fit for 2018/19/20 was our best chance of winning finals while Hurley, Hooker and Bellchambers still had some footy left in them.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Trying to judge which team won/lost last season is stupid. Wait to see whether Joe and Papley still want to leave, and what each team gets for them, first. Each club has played one match since the failed deal and put in virtually the exact same performance against teams on virtually the exact same level. It's impossible to judge at present.

Least Paps is fit. Clear as day we need him more than a bloke that can’t get on the field

 

[SSwans2011]

If we finish ahead of Sydney, which seems likely

Based on? We were just as impressive as you guys in round one, despite missing equally important players and playing away from home.

I daresay they'd still be willing to trade more than the compensation, even if it involves future picks rather than 2021.

Once again - based on what? If this was the case, why not do it last year, rather than giving Joe the chance to change his mind?

 

[SSwans2011]

Least Paps is fit. Clear as day we need him more than a bloke that can’t get on the field

I've never supported holding players against their will. Paps is a gun and I love him, but if he doesn't want to be at the club, I don't want him there.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I've never supported holding players against their will. Paps is a gun and I love him, but if he doesn't want to be at the club, I don't want him there.

My view has always been never overpay absolute period. We bag other clubs but the ones that contend rarely overpay

 

[SSwans2011]

My view has always been never overpay absolute period. We bag other clubs but the ones that contend rarely overpay

Name another interstate club that consistently contends. West Coast is the only one, and we are up there just as much as them.

Like it or not, major Victorian clubs have an advantage with gun players regularly wanting to join them, so they can afford to miss out on them. We aren't in the same boat.

 

[Ambrosia]

Based on? We were just as impressive as you guys in round one, despite missing equally important players and playing away from home.

Not sure the outs were of similar importance at all. Essendon didn’t have a KPF fit on the list. All of Daniher, Hooker, Mckernan and Stewart were unavailable for selection. Laverde and Townsend were our KPFs. On top of that Heppell, McKenna and Ambrose who all finished top 10 in our B&F we missing.

 

[eth-dog]

Based on? We were just as impressive as you guys in round one, despite missing equally important players and playing away from home.

Once again - based on what? If this was the case, why not do it last year, rather than giving Joe the chance to change his mind?

Well, we finished 4 games ahead of you last year, and most people have Essendon in the finals race whilst respectfully I would say most people have Sydney missing finals.

As for your impressiveness, I honestly didn't see it that way. Adelaide's defensive pressure was nonexistant for most of the game and you won by 3 points. Heeney, Parker, Florent and Kennedy were excellent but there were quite a few players that weren't. As for "equally as important" you had 3 best 22 players missing in Reid (iffy best 22 based on last season), Franklin and Mills (two of your top 5 players). We had 3 players in our top 6 of our BnF, and our four key forwards ready for senior football.

Based on the fact we played hardball and you offered more than what the compensation would have been. Last year we had the option of keeping him, this year that option is significantly reduced. I do think a deal will get done if he chooses to leave.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Name another interstate club that consistently contends. West Coast is the only one, and we are up there just as much as them.

Like it or not, major Victorian clubs have an advantage with gun players regularly wanting to join them, so they can afford to miss out on them. We aren't in the same boat.

You still shouldn’t overpay. There’s always a line and you don’t cross it with how much you pay players with draft capital. Overpaying for one means you have hurt yourself going forward.

 

[SSwans2011]

Not sure the outs were of similar importance at all. Essendon didn’t have a KPF fit on the list. All of Daniher, Hooker, Mckernan and Stewart were unavailable for selection. Laverde and Townsend were our KPFs. On top of that Heppell, McKenna and Ambrose who all finished top 10 in our B&F we missing.

We were missing Buddy and Reid. Our sole KPF was McCartin who I believe trained with the backline over the pre-season. One of our best mids in Hewett was out.

Our sole ruck hadn't played a game in over two years. I think the outs were pretty comparable.

Well, we finished 4 games ahead of you last year, and most people have Essendon in the finals race whilst respectfully I would say most people have Sydney missing finals.

As for your impressiveness, I honestly didn't see it that way. Adelaide's defensive pressure was nonexistant for most of the game and you won by 3 points. Heeney, Parker, Florent and Kennedy were excellent but there were quite a few players that weren't. As for "equally as important" you had 3 best 22 players missing in Reid (iffy best 22 based on last season), Franklin and Mills (two of your top 5 players). We had 3 players in our top 6 of our BnF, and our four key forwards ready for senior football.

Based on the fact we played hardball and you offered more than what the compensation would have been. Last year we had the option of keeping him, this year that option is significantly reduced. I do think a deal will get done if he chooses to leave.

Finishing 4 games ahead of us really flattered you. We traded wins last year and finished with a higher percentage than you. I don't think there's much at all to really prove that you're that far ahead of us. I don't rate Reid, but he's definitely best 22 when we have no other KPFs. You can't act like McKernan is a big out then try to dismiss the loss of Reid.

Funny how your 1-goal win against a lowly team at home was impressive, but ours against a lowly team at a ground which is traditionally hard to travel to wasn't impressive. I love these threads.

 

[Ambrosia]

Our sole ruck hadn't played a game in over two years. I think the outs were pretty comparable.

Funny how your 1-goal win against a lowly team at home was impressive, but ours against a lowly team at a ground which is traditionally hard to travel to wasn't impressive. I love these threads.

You guys chose not to play another ruckman Sinclair was available for selection. Bellchambers was also massively underdone coming off a half of VFL.

Round 1 results generally aren’t great predictors for the season results. No one is saying one win was more impressive than the other you’re the one who keeps trying make the argument about one game of football.

 

[eth-dog]

We were missing Buddy and Reid. Our sole KPF was McCartin who I believe trained with the backline over the pre-season. One of our best mids in Hewett was out.

Our sole ruck hadn't played a game in over two years. I think the outs were pretty comparable.

Finishing 4 games ahead of us really flattered you. We traded wins last year and finished with a higher percentage than you. I don't think there's much at all to really prove that you're that far ahead of us.

Funny how your 1-goal win against a lowly team at home was impressive, but ours against a lowly team at a ground which is traditionally hard to travel to wasn't impressive. I love these threads.

Buddy>Daniher
Reid<Hooker
Hewett<Heppell
Mills=McKenna
Naismith>Bellchambers (had no pre-season)

On top of that we were missing Ambrose (6th in our BnF and best key defender), McKernan and Stewart (both our back up key forwards). I think the outs are significantly in our favour.

Yeah, and if the rules were followed we would have beaten you twice last year and finished 6 wins ahead of you.

As for "traditionally hard to travel to", Adelaide went 5-5 against teams outside of SA last year, and Port 6-4. And half the reason it'd be considered that way is due to the parochial crowd, which wasn't a factor in this case. On top of that, Fremantle looked like a significantly better side than Adelaide in terms of ball movement and overall defensive pressure.

 

[SSSSSS]

Dodoro delivering the fails year after year. How he still has a job in list management is baffling.

 

[SSwans2011]

You guys chose not to play another ruckman Sinclair was available for selection. Bellchambers was also massively underdone coming off a half of VFL.

Round 1 results generally aren’t great predictors for the season results. No one is saying one win was more impressive than the other you’re the one who keeps trying make the argument about one game of football.

No, I'm not. The argument started because Essendon posters suggested your early season form suggested you would make finals. I simply disagreed. I don't think either team has shown enough for me to have any confidence either would make finals. I'm actually arguing the exact point you're suggesting I'm not.

Yeah, and if the rules were followed we would have beaten you twice last year and finished 6 wins ahead of you.

Jesus mate, I like you, but not really helping to alleviate the victim image that your fans have managed to build for your club. No mention of the lopsided free kick count in your favour in the Essendon home fixture? Or the fact that the free kick count was equal the night the AFL ROBBED you of your rightful victory? How about the GWS game that you won because of the score review not being properly deployed?

As for "traditionally hard to travel to", Adelaide went 5-5 against teams outside of SA last year, and Port 6-4. And half the reason it'd be considered that way is due to the parochial crowd, which wasn't a factor in this case. On top of that, Fremantle looked like a significantly better side than Adelaide in terms of ball movement and overall defensive pressure.

Of course Fremantle looked like a better side. They were playing Essendon.

 

[Ambrosia]

No, I'm not. The argument started because Essendon posters suggested your early season form suggested you would make finals. I simply disagreed. I don't think either team has shown enough for me to have any confidence either would make finals. I'm actually arguing the exact point you're suggesting I'm not

What the way I read it is you questioned eth asking for evidence as to why Essendon would finish above the Swans next year and brought up round 1 for a reason why there isn’t much between the two sides.

Eths first point we finished ahead of you last season. You the glossed over winning 4 more games like it isn’t a massive difference.

 

[skittlebrew]

Dodoro delivering the fails year after year. How he still has a job in list management is baffling.

Dodoro can do the negotiating, Dons can leave picking the draftees and building a list to someone else.

Then again if 2x firsts were on the table for Joey they probably should've taken it and they paid overs for Shiels so maybe he isn't the shrewd negotiator he once was.

 

[SSwans2011]

What the way I read it is you questioned eth asking for evidence as to why Essendon would finish above the Swans next year and brought up round 1 for a reason why there isn’t much between the two sides.

Eths first point we finished ahead of you last season. You the glossed over winning 4 more games like it isn’t a massive difference.

No, I said round 1 didn't prove there was any difference in quality between the sides at all. Basing it off last year is stupid when the difference was 4 wins a -2%. We also had a slightly more difficult fixture because we finished higher the year before. What's to say with a slightly weaker draw we don't pick up wins in a couple of the close losses? Also, Essendon had one of the oldest lists and Sydney one of the youngest. There's so many variables, and there's not nearly enough evidence to conclude Essendon's comfortably ahead of the Swans like Essendon posters are suggesting. If we really want to talk about finals and being a contender, how many finals have Sydney won since Essendon's last finals win?

 

[Ambrosia]

No, I said round 1 didn't prove there was any difference in quality between the sides at all. Basing it off last year is stupid when the difference was 4 wins a -2%. We also had a slightly more difficult fixture because we finished higher the year before. What's to say with a slightly weaker draw we don't pick up wins in a couple of the close losses? Also, Essendon had one of the oldest lists and Sydney one of the youngest. There's so many variables, and there's not nearly enough evidence to conclude Essendon's comfortably ahead of the Swans like Essendon posters are suggesting. If we really want to talk about finals and being a contender, how many finals have Sydney won since Essendon's last finals win?

4 wins is a huge it’s 20% of the games played. You give Essendon 4 more wins last year and we finish top 4.

 

[SSwans2011]

4 wins is a huge it’s 20% of the games played. You give Essendon 4 more wins last year and we finish top 4.

4 wins is less huge when you're using it to measure quality and the team with 4 extra wins has a lower percentage. In 2018 Brisbane only won 5 matches, but managed a modest 90%. Look what happened in 2019. Percentage is absolutely worth considering if you're trying to make judgments on the quality of a team in the following season - especially if the team with a poor win-loss record but modest percentage was fielding one of the youngest sides in the comp most weeks.

 

[Ambrosia]

4 wins is less huge when you're using it to measure quality and the team with 4 extra wins has a lower percentage. In 2018 Brisbane only won 5 matches, but managed a modest 90%. Look what happened in 2019. Percentage is absolutely worth considering if you're trying to make judgments on the quality of a team in the following season - especially if the team with a poor win-loss record but modest percentage was fielding one of the youngest sides in the comp most weeks.

Where do you see the Swans finishing this year?

Where do you see Essendon finishing this year?

Because I’m fairly confident Essendon will continue on our way with a mediocre 11-13 wins and finish around 8th again.

I just don’t see the Swans being that good this year. 3 of your best 5 players will be over 30 to start the year. I don’t think 2020 will be the year Blakely makes a significant impact.

 

[SSwans2011]

Where do you see the Swans finishing this year?

Where do you see Essendon finishing this year?

I don't know. It's a pretty pointless question.

 

[Ambrosia]

I don't know. It's a pretty pointless question.

Well it’s sort of all that matters in this thread and is why people are discussing the strength of each team is about future picks.

I’m not saying Essendon has a better list than Sydney, will win a premiership before Sydney or has better youth than Sydney. I just expect in 2020 Essendon will finish around 8th again and Sydney are a year away from pushing into that section of the ladder.

 

[SSwans2011]

3 of your best 5 players will be over 30 to start the year. I don’t think 2020 will be the year Blakely makes a significant impact.

Yeah, with dinosaurs like Heeney, Dawson, Mills, Papley, Florent and Hewett on the list we're ****ed. Not like Essendon have some level of reliance on Hooker, Hurley and Bellchambers who are all 30+. If anything you were comfortably MORE reliant on these players last season than we were our 30+ crowd. Your point makes no sense.

Rampe turns 30 one week before the season starts, but is in his prime at the moment due to being drafted late. It's not like we haven't had to prepare for a future without Buddy for a number of seasons now. You really like cherry-picking facts to suit your argument, huh?

 

[Slysh]

Thought they were crazy not to do the deal at the time and if he doesn't get back on the park this year it could be end up being a really really costly decision.