Keys
Looking for a cloud to yell at
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- #1
Trade period (for players) is all but done and as the dust settles it’s now apparent the only viable suitor for any potential trade of pick 1 is North Melbourne. Armed with a trio of end of R1 priority picks spread over 2 years plus a fortuitous FA compo pick (3) for McKay they end trade week with picks 2,3,15,17,18.
No other club comes close to having the same arsenal to trade up. The next best (Hawthorn) reportedly had their offer of pick 4, their F1 and Brockman knocked back by West Coast, setting a high bar that rules out everyone bar North
Our list manager, Rohan O’Brien, remains open to trading the first pick of the draft for an unspecified price. If the pick isn’t traded, everyone not named Sam McClure expects West Coast will draft Harley Reid
As mentioned, North have the picks at their disposal, should they choose, to convince West Coast to part with pick 1. So the poll question becomes what is the minimum trade offer that posters believe necessary to relinquish Reid
I’ve made some assumptions when coming up with the poll options :
1) Any offer that doesn’t include pick 2 won’t be accepted. Hawthorn’s offer wasn’t unreasonable but presumably wasn’t accepted because pick 4 is too far down the order. And if we’re going to pass on the best player in the draft we aren’t going to give North access to the best two, so pick 3 I’ve ruled out as an option (unless it is with pick 2 as well)
2) North have 5x 1st round picks currently. I’m assuming they’ll want to hold on to at least 3 and preferably 4 first round picks after any trade for pick 1
3) While it’s possible an eventual trade might include an extra pick from West Coast I’ve ignored that possibility from the options for simplicity.
4) North have enough 2023 picks to do a trade so I’ve left out any future picks as I don’t think they’ll be a part of any trade
5) Whilst North have sufficient picks there’s a gap in value between pick 3 and 15 that has the potential to create an impasse. With that in mind, Melbourne with picks 6 and 11 could be brought in as a circuit breaker by trading those picks for pick 3 and leaving picks 2,6,11,15,17,18 as tradeable options
Which leaves the following poll options in order of worst to best - on the assumption that North make the offer what would it need to be for you to accept the trade
1) Picks 2 and 15 - the absolute minimum being the best of their late first rounders
2) Picks 2 and 11 - a slight improvement on (1) which involves Melbourne and means North effectively trade out 2&3 for 1&6 leaving us with 2&11 (for 1)
3) Picks 2,17 and 18 - two later picks (17,18) trumps one slightly earlier pick (11) and can be done without involving Melbourne. Leaves North with 1,3,15 but with the option of splitting 3 into 6 and 11
4) Picks 2,11 and 15 - this again involves Melbourne giving us better options along with 2 and leaves North with 1&6 (for 2,3,15) plus 17&18
5) Picks 2 and 6 - pick 6 likely gives us access to Curtin and would be preferable to 11 and 15 given the drop off in talent after pick 10ish. North are trading 2&3 for 1&11 whilst retaining 15,17,18
6) Picks 2,6 and 17 - because why not take 17 as well giving us a 3rd first round pick. North still have 11,15 and 18 to go with Reid
7) Picks 2 and 3 - according to Jay Clark this is our asking price and is most likely the sort of godfather offer guaranteed to get our attention. This also gives us the opportunity to further split 3 into 6 and 11 as an alternative
8) Picks 2 and 3 plus - acknowledging that some supporters are completely wedded to drafting Reid such that even picks 2 and 3 aren’t enough and something more would be needed
9) JTR - no trade, we’re closed for business. Just Take Reid.
Finally, this is not what you think will be offered by North or what you think West Coast will accept. It is about what, if it was your decision, would you need North to offer as a minimum to trade pick 1
No other club comes close to having the same arsenal to trade up. The next best (Hawthorn) reportedly had their offer of pick 4, their F1 and Brockman knocked back by West Coast, setting a high bar that rules out everyone bar North
Our list manager, Rohan O’Brien, remains open to trading the first pick of the draft for an unspecified price. If the pick isn’t traded, everyone not named Sam McClure expects West Coast will draft Harley Reid
As mentioned, North have the picks at their disposal, should they choose, to convince West Coast to part with pick 1. So the poll question becomes what is the minimum trade offer that posters believe necessary to relinquish Reid
I’ve made some assumptions when coming up with the poll options :
1) Any offer that doesn’t include pick 2 won’t be accepted. Hawthorn’s offer wasn’t unreasonable but presumably wasn’t accepted because pick 4 is too far down the order. And if we’re going to pass on the best player in the draft we aren’t going to give North access to the best two, so pick 3 I’ve ruled out as an option (unless it is with pick 2 as well)
2) North have 5x 1st round picks currently. I’m assuming they’ll want to hold on to at least 3 and preferably 4 first round picks after any trade for pick 1
3) While it’s possible an eventual trade might include an extra pick from West Coast I’ve ignored that possibility from the options for simplicity.
4) North have enough 2023 picks to do a trade so I’ve left out any future picks as I don’t think they’ll be a part of any trade
5) Whilst North have sufficient picks there’s a gap in value between pick 3 and 15 that has the potential to create an impasse. With that in mind, Melbourne with picks 6 and 11 could be brought in as a circuit breaker by trading those picks for pick 3 and leaving picks 2,6,11,15,17,18 as tradeable options
Which leaves the following poll options in order of worst to best - on the assumption that North make the offer what would it need to be for you to accept the trade
1) Picks 2 and 15 - the absolute minimum being the best of their late first rounders
2) Picks 2 and 11 - a slight improvement on (1) which involves Melbourne and means North effectively trade out 2&3 for 1&6 leaving us with 2&11 (for 1)
3) Picks 2,17 and 18 - two later picks (17,18) trumps one slightly earlier pick (11) and can be done without involving Melbourne. Leaves North with 1,3,15 but with the option of splitting 3 into 6 and 11
4) Picks 2,11 and 15 - this again involves Melbourne giving us better options along with 2 and leaves North with 1&6 (for 2,3,15) plus 17&18
5) Picks 2 and 6 - pick 6 likely gives us access to Curtin and would be preferable to 11 and 15 given the drop off in talent after pick 10ish. North are trading 2&3 for 1&11 whilst retaining 15,17,18
6) Picks 2,6 and 17 - because why not take 17 as well giving us a 3rd first round pick. North still have 11,15 and 18 to go with Reid
7) Picks 2 and 3 - according to Jay Clark this is our asking price and is most likely the sort of godfather offer guaranteed to get our attention. This also gives us the opportunity to further split 3 into 6 and 11 as an alternative
8) Picks 2 and 3 plus - acknowledging that some supporters are completely wedded to drafting Reid such that even picks 2 and 3 aren’t enough and something more would be needed
9) JTR - no trade, we’re closed for business. Just Take Reid.
Finally, this is not what you think will be offered by North or what you think West Coast will accept. It is about what, if it was your decision, would you need North to offer as a minimum to trade pick 1
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