Preview Rnd 10 Fremantle vs Geelong, Saturday 20 May 4:35pm (AEST) @ Optus Oval

[cats_09]

We jump on a plane for the third time this season and will be looking to take our interstate record into positive territory for the 2023 season, as well as bounce back from a frustrating loss last Friday night

We haven't loss to Fremantle at Optus Oval since 2019, and we'd be keen to see a repeat of our last match against them at that venue in 2021 when we won 100 - 31, a night when Hawkins & Dangerfield combined for 7 of our 14 goals

Some see this match was a defining one for our season, though we do need to remember that unlike previous years, we still have 14 matches ahead of us and not just 13 of past seasons - that's to the addition of Gather Round. So while we'll want to turn things around from our match on Friday night, there's still a long season ahead of us, and at the moment we look far from the finished product, especially when factoring in our injury list & the players to return over the short & medium terms

We know Close will return this week, while there's also speculation around the availability of those like J Henry, Stengle, maybe even Dangerfield & Rohan - the likes of whom will strengthen our senior line up and be a frustration for opposition coaches

And as mentioned, last Friday was a little frustrating but we saw the debut of our #8 pick who in his limited match time didn't look out of place, and could we'll see himself elevated to a spot in the 22 for Saturday - watching Jhye debut last Friday was no doubt the highlight of the evening, followed by Tanner's late goal from the guts, in yet another sign that the former Falcon & new Cat is starting to find his feet in the Hoops

As for this weeks opponent Fremantle, who've been somewhat disappointing to date this season but did have a strong win on the road against the Swans this past weekend - so no doubt a team we won't want to take likely, but a team we do have a strong record against on their home turf

The important thing for us this week is to take our chances and not make it easy for Fremantle to stay in the match - play as we know we can, and there's no reason we don't get back into the winners list

 

[BotsMaster]

Last time:

AFL Tables - Geelong v Fremantle - Sat, 30-Apr-2022 1:45 PM - Match Stats

 

[Mr Meow]

When I checked I was shocked to see that Geelong are the only team besides Hawthorn to have a better than 50% winning record when playing Fremantle at Perth. 12 wins, 9 losses. I guess we've mostly been a good side from '95.

Adelaide, Brisbane, Sydney and West Coast away games have troubled us more.

I'd bite anyone's hand off for a "take the 4 points, no injuries and run" game where neither time are great. 4 points on this trip would be golden. I'd have Fremantle as marginal favourites as I had Geelong marginal favourites on the weekend, so let's hope I'm wrong again.

One thing is for sure, kicking 5.11.41 in a first half again isn't going to get the job done. Let's get an 11.5 together this time please. Two weeks in a row we have been wildly inefficient while the opposition has been clinical.

 

[standupand]

Officially we're playing Walyalup, not Fremantle this weekend.

Could be the first time that two AFL teams with names of Indigenous origin face off against one another?

 

[foxdog50]

Officially we're playing Walyalup, not Fremantle this weekend.

Could be the first time that two AFL teams with names of Indigenous origin face off against one another?

Really ....

 

[Play it Sam]

Freo board is remarkably free of any childish spite toward us, just really good interesting discussions on their selections. i.e. Fyfe
Whatever purple stuff they're drinking over there, send some of it to Bitchmond pls.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Looks like we get a young Freo team hitting form. But hopefully with a few back we should be fine.

It sounds like Close and Stengle are certainties and Henry and De Koning are both real chances.

I think considering we're still missing a bunch of key players and travelling to Perth I'd go for mature bodies away from home.

I also would leave Ceglar out on the big ground to bring him back against GWS on the smaller ground where his lack of mobility is less of an issue. So something like:

Ins - Stengle, Close, SDK
Outs - Dempsey, Knevitt, Ceglar

One of Dempsey, Knevitt or Clark as sub. I'd plan to give Clark a full match against GWS.

 

[Mr Meow]

Looks like we get a young Freo team hitting form. But hopefully with a few back we should be fine.

It sounds like Close and Stengle are certainties and Henry and De Koning are both real chances.

I think considering we're still missing a bunch of key players and travelling to Perth I'd go for mature bodies away from home.

I also would leave Ceglar out on the big ground to bring him back against GWS on the smaller ground where his lack of mobility is less of an issue. So something like:

Ins - Stengle, Close, SDK
Outs - Dempsey, Knevitt, Ceglar

One of Dempsey, Knevitt or Clark as sub. I'd plan to give Clark a full match against GWS.

We can't let Blicavs ruck alone against Darcy and Jackson. Not in a game where we our down our two best mids and therefore Blicavs is close our important one. Big ground, small ground - Ceglar is going to be required at a bare minimum until Dangerfield is back. In the 3 games he's played, his opponents have collectively tallied 5 coaches votes. Defence, forward line and midfield all hurt us more on the weekend than ruck.

 

[Play it Sam]

We can't let Blicavs ruck alone against Darcy and Jackson. Not in a game where we our down our two best mids and therefore Blicavs is close our important one. Big ground, small ground - Ceglar is going to be required at a bare minimum until Dangerfield is back. In the 3 games he's played, his opponents have collectively tallied 5 coaches votes. Defence, forward line and midfield all hurt us more on the weekend than ruck.

He got more kicks than 11 of our players against Tiggs. Don't ask me where they went.
Irrespective, it's why they have him, break glass ICE- that glass has been well and truly smashed.

 

[Chinacats]

Can we have some dog hunger in this game? Probably shown that only against Sydney this year…. I’ve tipped cats in all games this year( and I’m not one to tip them always because I barrack for them) . This one I have to think about…

 

[CHAWKTS]

Looks like we get a young Freo team hitting form. But hopefully with a few back we should be fine.

It sounds like Close and Stengle are certainties and Henry and De Koning are both real chances.

I think considering we're still missing a bunch of key players and travelling to Perth I'd go for mature bodies away from home.

I also would leave Ceglar out on the big ground to bring him back against GWS on the smaller ground where his lack of mobility is less of an issue. So something like:

Ins - Stengle, Close, SDK
Outs - Dempsey, Knevitt, Ceglar

One of Dempsey, Knevitt or Clark as sub. I'd plan to give Clark a full match against GWS.

Not a bad thought in terms of giving ceglar a rest (he needs it if going to last until Rhys back). But only works if SDK is going to play and I reckon that is 50/50 at best? Even then not sure if they want to throw him in to cope with Darcy who is a big boy?

also i think you will find O Henry is out (maybe until after the bye) so that is one forced out.

From there I think they might take Parf out if they want to put in Clark (but agree they might hold him over to home game?). So Dempsey most like to go out given Close and Stengle in - unless they want him in with Henry out? This week could be hard to get meat tray as a few unknowns…

 

[Footy Smarts]

Not a bad thought in terms of giving ceglar a rest (he needs it if going to last until Rhys back). But only works if SDK is going to play and I reckon that is 50/50 at best? Even then not sure if they want to throw him in to cope with Darcy who is a big boy?

also i think you will find O Henry is out (maybe until after the bye) so that is one forced out.

From there I think they might take Parf out if they want to put in Clark (but agree they might hold him over to home game?). So Dempsey most like to go out given Close and Stengle in - unless they want him in with Henry out? This week could be hard to get meat tray as a few unknowns…

I completely forgot Parf even played on Friday. Whoops! Yeah Knevitt will play ahead of him. Or Clark.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Freo board is remarkably free of any childish spite toward us, just really good interesting discussions on their selections. i.e. Fyfe
Whatever purple stuff they're drinking over there, send some of it to Bitchmond pls.

Most boards are full of good people in my experience, the Saints and Dees boards in particular are great value.

It just makes the enigma that is the Richmond board all the more perculiar, and further proves that they truly are the issue in the majority of conflicts.

 

[Footy Smarts]

We can't let Blicavs ruck alone against Darcy and Jackson. Not in a game where we our down our two best mids and therefore Blicavs is close our important one. Big ground, small ground - Ceglar is going to be required at a bare minimum until Dangerfield is back. In the 3 games he's played, his opponents have collectively tallied 5 coaches votes. Defence, forward line and midfield all hurt us more on the weekend than ruck.

I disagree. It's been a long time since we've been beaten up around clearances with Blicavs in the ruck. He's a very good nullifying ruck now and excellent once the ball hits the ground.

As good as Ceglar is in the actual ruck work we have consistently struggled in transition with him in the team (not saying it's all his fault but clearly it doesn't help).

I just think we look way better, especially on big grounds, with an extra runner instead of being slightly improved in ruck contests but clearly worse around the ground. Last week was understandable since the extra runner was going to be another debutant when we already had a lot of inexperience. But if we get a few back I don't think picking Ceglar instead of say Knevitt really gains us anything.

 

[winty]

This week's preview courtesy of Farmer2Goggin

Round 10 Cats v Dockers at Optus Oval

In the blink of an eye here we are at Round 10 with the Cats heading west to take on the Dockers.
In thinking about this one I am reminded of one of Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

47

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

's football truths - " This game is not necessarily about who you play but when you play them" - not necessarily verbatim but you get my drift.

State of Play

7th Cats 20 points 5/4 127.5% 940 For 737 Against WWWWL
14th Dockers 16 points 4/5 98.1% 760 For 775 Against WLLWW

On the face of that it's game over but of course there is more to it.
Perhaps the Cats succumbed to the tipping point last week with too many changes through injury and suspension , although IMO a number of experienced players put in their worst games for the year. They will want to rectify that this week as Close seems the only ( welcome) inclusion at this stage.
Dockers have been very up and down but have found their groove and right mix over the last few games. A few keys are back from injury and have found form.
So referring back to Chris's comment about timing I think it's fair to say we will be up against it.

Game Style

Our ball movement started a long way off to start the season but a couple of easy kills and a hard fought win at home had us kinda back there with our forwards feeding off plentiful and quick supply. We stuttered last week and will need to establish better flow at Optus to give ourselves a chance.

I haven't seen much of the Dockers but my impression which is backed up by the Stats to follow is that they build off a kicking game from half back and patiently move it forward.
They have been reliant on their talented small forwards who are now back and firing ( Walters , Switkowski and Schultz) but Amiss and Treacy are now also marking the pill so their forward line will be a challenge. Clark and Young are their main distributors so they must be pressured as they can find long targets and change angles to great effect.
Dockers rucks are a concern if they can give their mids good supply - more of that below.

Forward Potency - Win to Cats

We pretty much dominate here :
Average score is - 15 .6 to 12.6
Shots on goal are - 28.8 to 24.3
Efficiency inside 50 - 50.8% to 45.4%
Inside 50 - 56 to 53
Marks inside 50 - 17 to 11
Tackles inside 50 - 8.6 to 11.9 ( Dockers way)

We win this comfortably as we all know stats don't lie !

Rucks - Win to Dockers but not what you think

Hitouts 51.9 to 38
% Won 55% to 39%
To Advantage 15.2 to 11.1
Clearances 37.9 to 38.9 ( Cats way plus centre and stoppages are even)

Win in the hitouts but both Clubs close on clearances - both centre and stoppage clearances.
Need to be careful when comparing average numbers but I do believe Darcy/Jackson combination could be very problematic as they both cover the ground well and whilst Blitz won't care Ceglar will struggle ( if selected)

Pressure

Both teams average around 136 contested possessions but the Dockers hold sway on spoils - 31.6 to 27.6 - and tackles 60.6 to 56.7.
Cats have more clangers at 61 versus 51 - will need that to be a lot closer in this match.

Other Key Stats

Dockers possess the ball more with 20 more per game and have 22 more uncontested per game - larger ground a factor here?
Marks are fairly even and consistent with their possession numbers their DE is better at 75.2% to our 71.5%.

Who Wins?

This isn't going to be easy particularly if Dockers Rucks give quality supply to their midfield.
I'm concerned about our ability to defend their small forwards as well as the groundball pressure which will be immense. We cannot let their small crumb well or get out the back and score easily.
If our mids breakeven I think we generate enough F50 entries for this one to play out by the numbers but the issue is which Cats outfit will show up?
We will need more of the quality we saw in the Crows game to get over the line with our young guys performing and the senoir guys stepping back to that level as opposed to what we saw v the Tigers

Cats to get over the line by 13 points

 

[catsfootyfan89]

Close and Stengle back is HUGE for us if true. It'll be nice to have some forward-pressure again.

Not convinced we win this one, unfortunately. It'll be another huge test. Sending all the youngsters to Perth is a pretty tall order if you ask me.

 

[Romeoh1]

Well a few weeks ago this was a comfortable win, but we have since increased our injury list and they might have looked ok last week. ( although who knows how to gauge that with the poor form of Sydney).
Get Close and at least one other back and we are a fighting chance. Be great to pull this one off and if we play good footy, we will. None of last week’s ordinary footy will suffice this week. Happy though, to get more games into the kids.

 

[fpm84]

Sorry, not feeling this one. I tipped Richmond to beat us given our outs and it seems we’re only likely to get a couple back this week. Darcy, Serong and Brayshaw will absolutely feast on us.

Missing Dangerfield and Guthrie at the same time is going to kill us until we get one or both back.

Take DeGoey/Pendlebury, Petracca/Oliver, Neale/Dunkley, Rozee/Wines out of any of the teams above us and I’d be struggling to tip them too.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I'm more confident here than I was last week. I'm not offering to eat my hat this time around.

 

[Mr Meow]

I'm more confident here than I was last week. I'm not offering to eat my hat this time around.

Do you think it's because we'll play better, Freo are worse or we will return to being efficient (field kicking and goal kicking)? My brain says so many senior players can't have another poor game and our kicking surely undertakes mean reversion. I'm really not sure about Freo though.

 

[Warhorse]

Freo board is remarkably free of any childish spite toward us, just really good interesting discussions on their selections. i.e. Fyfe
Whatever purple stuff they're drinking over there, send some of it to Bitchmond pls.

Breath of fresh air compared to the tigers board. The posters seem knowledgeable and respectful of other teams. Richmond fanbase is the absolute worse - low iq dribble. No wonder they spit on their own coaches. Imagine treating a coach like this over a football game:

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I disagree. It's been a long time since we've been beaten up around clearances with Blicavs in the ruck. He's a very good nullifying ruck now and excellent once the ball hits the ground.

As good as Ceglar is in the actual ruck work we have consistently struggled in transition with him in the team (not saying it's all his fault but clearly it doesn't help).

I just think we look way better, especially on big grounds, with an extra runner instead of being slightly improved in ruck contests but clearly worse around the ground. Last week was understandable since the extra runner was going to be another debutant when we already had a lot of inexperience. But if we get a few back I don't think picking Ceglar instead of say Knevitt really gains us anything.

I remember saying this every year since since 2020 and constantly batting away suggestions he should be played at KPD. Why we put him in the backline in 2021 I'll never understand

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Do you think it's because we'll play better, Freo are worse or we will return to being efficient (field kicking and goal kicking)? My brain says so many senior players can't have another poor game and our kicking surely undertakes mean reversion. I'm really not sure about Freo though.

I actually think we outperformed Richmond, it was a mixture of poor efficiency, strange umpiring decisions and some basic skill errors that let us down. I'm not sure Freo are in the same class as Richmond.

 

[Generalissimo]

It just makes the enigma that is the Richmond board all the more perculiar,

Persecution complex combined with room-temperature IQ.

 

[standupand]

I actually think we outperformed Richmond, it was a mixture of poor efficiency, strange umpiring decisions and some basic skill errors that let us down. I'm not sure Freo are in the same class as Richmond.

Not in the same class? They're nearly in the same ladder position.
Or do you mean class as in classy, where Richmond are at absolute zero?