Preview Round 9 vs Gold Coast

Winner?


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Saturday May 231
Metricon Stadium 1:40pm ACST
Gold Coast Forecast: Max: 26, Possible Shower


The Story So Far:
New year, new coach, new game plan. With many predicting us to slide (and some putting us in the bottom 4), we've exceeded expectations with a 4-4 start to the year (although we really should have more). We thumped Port and Richmond, scraped past Sydney in an epic and beat Freo in an instantly forgettable scrap. Our losses have mostly been close with all of them being missed opportunities; 11 points to North, 3 points to the Hawks, 15 points to the Dogs but our last loss was easily the worst of the lot. 26 points was flattering as on the field it felt more like a 10-goal loss. We were monstered, no other way around it. That loss saw a few meltdowns (from me included) and confirmed that we're still a fair way off contending.

Is 4-4 a reasonable result? I would've taken that at the start of the year but, in hindsight, a few of the teams we've beaten have been hugely disappointing, however, 3 of our 4 losses were all missed opportunities. However, since the Hawks loss, we've been poor so it's time to turn things around.

Gold Coast on the other hand... well they started with 3 wins but injuries have taken their toll and they have fallen apart. Their injury list:

Gary Ablett (concussion) test
Adam Saad (hamstring) TBC
Clay Cameron (knee) TBC
Dan Currie (hip) TBC
Brayden Fiorini (knee) 7 weeks
Mitch Hallahan (foot) 4 weeks
Steven May (suspension) 1 week
Trent McKenzie (ankle) 2 weeks
Jaeger O’Meara (knee) 4 weeks
Michael Rischitelli (shoulder) 2 weeks
Matt Rosa (hamstring) 3 weeks
Alex Sexton (broken arm) 3 weeks
David Swallow (knee) indefinite
Rory Thompson (ankle) 2 weeks

Their key defenders, a key ruckman, Saad, a bunch of gun mids and now possibly Ablett could be out for our match. It just gets worse by the week for the Suns and it could get even worse on Saturday.

History:

Not much to say really, we are 8-0 against them and our lowest winning margin is 28 points in round 14, 2013.

Otherwise, we have always easily accounted for them and, hopefully, that trend continues.

Memorable Matches:
Round 22, 2011
Our second clash with them saw the human tank break a then-record (before a bald-headed Sun broke it again the next year)

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51 touches he chalked up that day in a 61 point win! He's a bit slower these days but can he, maybe, repeat that?

Round 14, 2013
This was the closest game between the two sides. The Suns were in decent form while we were struggling after getting pumped by Sydney and Richmond in consecutive weeks. We pulled away in the end to win by 28.




(7:10 in for some comedy)


Tex also took a nice grab against them last year but, unfortunately, I can't find an image of it. footy4ever had it as his av for a while so that's the one if you remember it.

Teams
Gold Coast

B: Schade, Brooksby, Lemmens
HB: Harbrow, Day, Kolodjashnij
C: Ah Chee, Rischitelli, Shaw
HF: Russell, Lynch, Martin
F: Matera, Wright, Davis
Foll: Currie, Lonergan, Prestia
I/C: Grant, Malceski, MacPherson, Tape

Adelaide

B: Lever, Talia, Brown
HB: Henderson, Hartigan, Smith
C: Cameron, Sloane, Atkins
HF: Lyons, Jenkins, McGovern
F: Lynch, Walker, Betts
Foll: Jacobs, Douglas, Thompson
I/C: van Berlo, Seedsman, Cheney, Milera


Will add in when they get released. Saad is a certain out for the Suns and possibly Ablett may be out too. Hopefully we will make some changes after Friday night's debacle.

Key Match-Ups:
Daniel Talia vs Tom Lynch
Wait on a minute, how can two players from the same team be up against each other. What's that you say? There's ANOTHER Tom Lynch. Well, it seems like there is and he's coming second in the Coleman! Lynch has been the main focal point of the Suns forward line bagging 30 goals so far this season. If the Suns want to kick a respectable score, he's going to have to chime in with a few. If Talia blankets him, it could be a long night.

Sam Jacobs vs Tom Nicholls
Sauce hasn't been too awesome this year with some even calling him to be dropped. He's up against a ruckman who was in fact dropped after a string of poor performances so there's no excuse for Sauce on Saturday. Maybe start hitting it to some teammates too.

Sam Day vs Josh Jenkins/Taylor Walker
The former KPF has been thrown back due to injuries and suspensions. JJ kicked 8 a couple of weeks ago and is having a career best season but Tex has been off the boil somewhat, surely he's due to fire soon?

Gary Ablett/Dion Prestia vs the Crows midfield
There's Ablett chance he may not play and even if most others around him aren't up to it, he'll always try his guts out. Prestia is one player who always destroys us so we need to keep him in check. Do that, and it should be a nice % booster.

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The two above need to get back into form, this week's an opportunity.

Tom Lynch vs Tom Lynch
They won't match up on each other but who will score the most goals? Will ours kick 10 again?

Verdict:



No excuses, the Suns are just about fielding a NEAFL side so this should be a % booster to get back on the winner's list. Not much else to say about this preview really, it's a lopsided head to head record and this game isn't really an interesting one all things considered. I guess it's us by how much?

Crows by 70.
 
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I'm sure we'll win and probably easily since we love beating sides like this. Can't say I'm too excited for the game tbh.
 
No disrespect to GCS intended as there is a clear understanding of the quantity and quality of players unavailable. Opposition will be near on a NEAFL side on Saturday.

This is a reset/reload game for us. After 8 weeks of having a "big" game in "big timeslots (5 games of either Fri/Sat night), I've no doubt some fatigue has set in - it would have to given the high quality, high pressure opposition we have faced week in week out.

Other sides have got themselves rolling off the back of this type of fixture, so there's no reason to downgrade what we are setting out to achieve this Saturday. An opportunity to have a significant % boosting win and get our confidence/energy flowing again.

I can foresee minimal unforced changes again to give those underperformers of the last 2 weeks to recapture form. That said I still think there is room to rotate some mids- just get the feeling it won't happen.

If we go there with limited expectation other than to get back to how we were playing weeks 1-6, then I've no doubt a huge win will eventuate.
 
Some stats on us and the opponents so far this season ...

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If you take the "last 3" as a form guide - then we are looking at an 88 point win as the base line. For the season as a whole, it would be a 54 point win.

PS - Interesting that we were 20.8 points better than the rest of their opponents against Geelong. Probably more a reflection of the un-even draw at round 8 than anything else !!
 
IN:
B: S. Lemmens / J. Leslie / S. Tape
HB: KK / H. Schade / N. Malice ski
C: J. Martin / J. Lonergan / M. Shaw
HF: J. Harbrow / T. Lynch / R. Davis
F: B. Matera / J. Grant / D. Mac
R: S. Day / A. Hall / C. Ah Chee
IC: K. Brooksby

OUT:
B: A. Saad / S. May / T. Mckenzie
HB: D. Stanley / R. Thompson / A. Sexton
C: M. Rosa / G. Ablett / M. Rischitelli
HF: T. Miller / P. Wright / C. Cameron
F: B. Fiorini / T. Nicholls / L. Russell
R: D. Currie / D. Swallow / J. O'Meara
IC: D. Prestia

Our out side looks far stronger than our in side :(


Posted by the Sun God - I have a lot of sympathy for them.
 

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There really is no excuse for us not to build our percentage this week. I'm not normally one for talking as such but really they are at the lowest of lows. Bring a couple of the SANFL guys in and rest the weary veterans.

We played a very weak GC side up there last year but this one's even worse.
 
I'm sure we'll win and probably easily since we love beating sides like this. Can't say I'm too excited for the game tbh.
The parallels with last year's game are almost eerie. That was one of the worst wins I think I've ever seen, and nowhere near the percentage booster we needed it to be.
 
We need to act tough for this game after a couple of pathetic showings in recent weeks. This is a good chance to gain some confidence against a side that has next to no confidence in itself, and we need to take advantage of that (something we have a tendency to not do - Freo game the classic example).

Anything less than a 10 goal win will be a disappointment.
 
The parallels with last year's game are almost eerie. That was one of the worst wins I think I've ever seen, and nowhere near the percentage booster we needed it to be.
Yeh it made all the difference in the final reckoning.

If only we'd won by 100 points we would've finished 7th and had an away EF against the Bulldogs.
 
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