Nostradamus Lives Stephen SOS Silvagni sacked from Carlton. Tom Browne upgraded to CCC- Junk Bond rating

[Sterge]

Are you seriously comparing the young players on your list to the likes of Martin, Cotchin, Riewoldt and Rance? Do you honestly think they hold that potential? Who is your future duel premiership captain/Brownlow medalist? Who is your future 3 x Coleman medalist? Who is your future Brownlow medalist/dual Norm Smith medalist? Who is your future AA captain/key defender who will be regarded as arguably the greatest defender of the modern era? As much as you want to be, you’re not Richmond, so don’t you dare mention our superstars with your nobodies in the same breath again.

Martin also played two finals in his first five seasons. Cripps is heading into his 7th season next year and you’re nowhere near it. And five years you say? You need ANOTHER five years before you start playing finals? Cripps will be 25 before the season starts. He’ll be banged up and thirty by the time your kids find their feet at AFL level (if they ever do). He can’t carry your midfield into his thirties. It’s funny, because once Cripps peaked, Murphy became over the hill, who was in your previous “They know we’re coming” rebuild. You guys have been rebuilding for that long, your previous number one draft picks are nearing the end of their careers!

And the same thing is likely to happen again. That’s exactly why you can’t just linger on the bottom for a decade stockpiling high draft picks. You need to get your age profile correct on your list so you can eventually mount a challenge. You have failed miserably in that regard and your fans just don’t get it.

* me calm down champ, no one at Richmond predicted rance martin cotchin or jack before they were stars either.

Cripps is pretty good and there are a few others, Carlton still have a lot of holes though.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Richmond played finals three seasons prior to that and everyone with a clue knew we had the talent. We just didn’t have the game plan. We didn’t become a good list overnight. Hardwick (in)famously praised our list in 2016 and was widely criticised for it. We had the foundation there to eventually launch an assault on the finals as we had been showing good signs for years. We regularly beat Hawthorn throughout their golden years, we won nine in a row to make finals in 2014 and at our best, we were very good. In 2016 we went backwards largely due to Hardwick trying to implement a Hawthorn style game plan that we couldn’t pull off, so we started playing to our strengths. We switched things up and the rest is history.

Carlton have showed literally nothing of recent times. Your highlight this year was beating Fremantle FFS. Your coach is apparently a genius, as is your list manager and a few wins against some ordinary teams and you’re all of a sudden bound to have a Brisbane like surge up the ladder.

And of course anything can happen with any list. We can only judge on the past and present. As it stands, SOS has had more misses than hits and that’s why he’ll be out of a job soon. Gone. Done. Finito.

Your club has done well in recent times. Sadly this seems to have empowered you to believe that your opinion is worth more than it actually is. My personal highlite this year was beating top 4 Brisbane.
More importantly though was winning 6 of the last 11 with two others that we should have won and seeing younger players start to get more confident. We think that we are heading in the right direction and the list that SOS has put together will hold us in good stead. Time will tell.
But that gone.done. finito. Crap just makes you look like a nuffy.

 

[Sash Cat]

Your club has done well in recent times. Sadly this seems to have empowered you to believe that your opinion is worth more than it actually is. My personal highlite this year was beating top 4 Brisbane.
More importantly though was winning 6 of the last 11 with two others that we should have won and seeing younger players start to get more confident. We think that we are heading in the right direction and the list that SOS has put together will hold us in good stead. Time will tell.
But that gone.done. finito. Crap just makes you look like a nuffy.

Five of those wins were against St Kilda (14th), Adelaide (11th), Gold Coast (18th), Sydney (15th) and Fremantle (13th), who you could argue at that stage of the season all had nothing to play for.

Brisbane were also exposed as frauds in finals. Belted at home by Richmond and also lost at home to a GWS side who are notoriously bad at traveling. They also had an incredibly soft draw. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re mid table next season as I think that’s more indicative of their quality. Absolutely no chance are they a top four side. Their forward line is very ordinary.

Where do you actually expect to finish next season? What is a pass mark for Carlton? I keep reading about improvement, but can you please give me a specific ladder finish that you would consider a reasonable goal?

 

[Dadda Dave]

Five of those wins were against St Kilda (14th), Adelaide (11th), Gold Coast (18th), Sydney (15th) and Fremantle (13th), who you could argue at that stage of the season all had nothing to play for.

Brisbane were also exposed as frauds in finals. Belted at home by Richmond and also lost at home to a GWS side who are notoriously bad at traveling. They also had an incredibly soft draw. I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re mid table next season as I think that’s more indicative of their quality. Absolutely no chance are they a top four side. Their forward line is very ordinary.

Where do you actually expect to finish next season? What is a pass mark for Carlton? I keep reading about improvement, but can you please give me a specific ladder finish that you would consider a reasonable goal?

Your the expert..
You tell us what a pass mark is and where will the blues finish ??

 

[A Banderas]

Your the expert..
You tell us what a pass mark is and where will the blues finish ??

I personally think they are going around in circles. 14-18th

 

[Sash Cat]

Your the expert..
You tell us what a pass mark is and where will the blues finish ??

If you escape the bottom four, it’s a pass. Gold Coast are a lock for last. I think based on quality, Adelaide and Fremantle are bottom three, but their pure home ground advantage will allow them to chalk up some extra wins against traveling sides, so hard to read them both. Sydney will struggle again, so you may leapfrog them. I’m expecting St Kilda and Melbourne to improve on next year. They should be around 8th to 12th.

I think you’ll finish 14th, above Sydney, Adelaide, Fremantle and Gold Coast.

Thoughts?

 

[Dadda Dave]

If you escape the bottom four, it’s a pass. Gold Coast are a lock for last. I think based on quality, Adelaide and Fremantle are bottom three, but their pure home ground advantage will allow them to chalk up some extra wins against traveling sides, so hard to read them both. Sydney will struggle again, so you may leapfrog them. I’m expecting St Kilda and Melbourne to improve on next year. They should be around 8th to 12th.

I think you’ll finish 14th, above Sydney, Adelaide, Fremantle and Gold Coast.

Thoughts?

Imo we'll do a little bit better than 14th..
10th for me ..
But thanks for a reasonable reply.

 

[Fadge]

Imo we'll do a little bit better than 14th..
10th for me ..
But thanks for a reasonable reply.

Wouldn't it be great to be heading into a season thinking 'if everything goes well, we might finish as high as 10th...'

 

[Fadge]

Also lol at saying none of our delisted players have made it onto another list yet you go on to list Aish. Was he delisted?

Delisted/exited...

You have 27 players who were brought into your club over the past 4 seasons who are no longer on your list, one of whom have made it on to another club's list.

Aish is at Fremantle, after being on the fringe of Collingwood's best 22 for the past four seasons...

 

[BigFrizz36]

If you escape the bottom four, it’s a pass. Gold Coast are a lock for last. I think based on quality, Adelaide and Fremantle are bottom three, but their pure home ground advantage will allow them to chalk up some extra wins against traveling sides, so hard to read them both. Sydney will struggle again, so you may leapfrog them. I’m expecting St Kilda and Melbourne to improve on next year. They should be around 8th to 12th.

I think you’ll finish 14th, above Sydney, Adelaide, Fremantle and Gold Coast.

Thoughts?
[/QUOTE]
We won 6 of our last 11 and should have beaten the Dees and could have beaten the dogs. We were 4 goals away from eagles and tigers and had a Barry Crocker against the cats in the last.
If we replicate those results we win 12 and if we improve a bit 14.
We would hope that we will be a significantly better team if Docherty (all Australian at his last game) can get back anywhere near his previous form, Martin should improve us and whilst Eddie is nearing the end he will create opportunities .

A fully fit forward line of McGovern, C. Curnow, Martin, Betts, big Harry and Cuningham could really do some damage .

The real key is whether the likes of Setterfield, Dow, Stocker, SPS, Fisher, O'Brien etc can jump from "youngsters with promise" to being genuine midfield contributors to help Cripps, Murphy and E. Curnow whilst Walsh looks like he could be elite.

Backline looks solid with Jones, Weitering, Marchbank, Plowman, Newman, Simpson and hopefully Docherty and Williamson.

I would also expect the likes if Jack Silvagni, Matt Kennedy, Levi Casboult, Jack Newnes etc to play plenty of senior footy.

Overall my biased view is that 15 wins would be an excellent outcome and 10 wins would be slightly disappointing. Injuries (Or lack of) can impact that of course.[/QUOTE]

 

[BigFrizz36]

Delisted/exited...

You have 27 players who were brought into your club over the past 4 seasons who are no longer on your list, one of whom have made it on to another club's list.

Aish is at Fremantle, after being on the fringe of Collingwood's best 22 for the past four seasons...

Your anti-Carlton bias is well known so I am probably wasting my time but here goes.

Your statistic is completely irrelevant as it pre-supposes that Carlton and Collingwoods lists were in exactly the same place at the start of 2015 (hint- they weren't)

SOS's strategy was very simple - our list was terribly lop sided and needed to be completely re-built. From the outset the plan was three fold;
1) Trade expendable or conditional players (e.g. Henderson, Menzel, Bell, Yarran) to help stockpile draft picks
2) Use top end draft picks initially for key positions (2015 saw Weitering, McKay and Curnow added) and then mid fielders to add to the limited top end talent already on the list (Cripps, Docherty, Murphy)
3) Having traded out those from 1) there is clearly going to be some pain as we wait for 2) to mature so get in some short term foot soldiers to try and minimise the damage. Hence you have your Kerridges, Lobbe's, Palmer's added to the list that were never designed to be long term players.

You take great joy in saying that Kerridge, Phillips, Sumner and Lamb are no longer on the list but that reality of that trade is that long term net effect is that we traded Menzel for Plowman and the other four did their jobs to varying degrees. We don't need to have a national day of mourning if rookies like Korchek (cat b rookie) McDaid (cat B rookie) or delisted free agents like Wright, Shaw, Mullett etc don't make it.

SOS has put a list together that many pundits believe is heading somewhere. Feel free to judge it from here on in. To suggest that he will be judged by who is no longer on the list is ridiculous. His list will be judged on who is on it and how it performs from here on in.

To add Kreuger and McAdam on to your list of 27 shows your bias as I'm not even sure they have driven past Princes Park let alone been inside it. You then compound that mistake by not adding them to the list of former players that are on other lists.

 

[Fadge]

Your statistic is completely irrelevant as it pre-supposes that Carlton and Collingwoods lists were in exactly the same place at the start of 2015

It's not irrelevant in that I was simply responding to a poster who had stated that Collingwood has had more turnover in their list than Carlton over the time SOS has been at the wheel.

I'm not the one who brought Collingwood into the conversation.

 

[Sash Cat]

We won 6 of our last 11 and should have beaten the Dees and could have beaten the dogs. We were 4 goals away from eagles and tigers and had a Barry Crocker against the cats in the last.
If we replicate those results we win 12 and if we improve a bit 14.
We would hope that we will be a significantly better team if Docherty (all Australian at his last game) can get back anywhere near his previous form, Martin should improve us and whilst Eddie is nearing the end he will create opportunities .

A fully fit forward line of McGovern, C. Curnow, Martin, Betts, big Harry and Cuningham could really do some damage .

The real key is whether the likes of Setterfield, Dow, Stocker, SPS, Fisher, O'Brien etc can jump from "youngsters with promise" to being genuine midfield contributors to help Cripps, Murphy and E. Curnow whilst Walsh looks like he could be elite.

Backline looks solid with Jones, Weitering, Marchbank, Plowman, Newman, Simpson and hopefully Docherty and Williamson.

I would also expect the likes if Jack Silvagni, Matt Kennedy, Levi Casboult, Jack Newnes etc to play plenty of senior footy.

Overall my biased view is that 15 wins would be an excellent outcome and 10 wins would be slightly disappointing. Injuries (Or lack of) can impact that of course.

15 wins?! That would put you into the top four. That also means you’ll finish above one of Richmond, GWS, Collingwood or West Coast, not to mention Geelong, Bulldogs and Brisbane. Don’t you think there’s a slight chance you’re overrating your list a bit?

Ten wins would be an exceptional outcome for Carlton next season.

 

[BigFrizz36]

15 wins?! That would put you into the top four. That also means you’ll finish above one of Richmond, GWS, Collingwood or West Coast, not to mention Geelong, Bulldogs and Brisbane. Don’t you think there’s a slight chance you’re overrating your list a bit?

Ten wins would be an exceptional outcome for Carlton next season.

1) No
2) No

(refer previous 6 wins from past 11 X 2 etc)

Were Richmond entitled to win the 2017 flag after winning 8 games in 2016 or were Brisbane supposed to win 16 games this year after winning 5 in 2018? I am comfortable with my 10 - 15 games scenario.

 

[Demontim275]

1) No
2) No

(refer previous 6 wins from past 11 X 2 etc)

Were Richmond entitled to win the 2017 flag after winning 8 games in 2016 or were Brisbane supposed to win 16 games this year after winning 5 in 2018? I am comfortable with my 10 - 15 games scenario.

So you think Carlton are a genuine top 4 chance?

 

[Fadge]

Not sure how you remotely view it as laughable.

Carlton considering all the turnover over the last 5 years had to bring in far more players each year than other clubs (as shown by the 55 vs 37 numbers). If 65% of the players picked up over this time were to still be retained by the club it means ~ 36 players from SOSs time would still be on the list. Essentially you are suggesting that Carlton should have retained the equivalent amount of players, that Collingwood totally acquired in that period of time.

Rather than trying to use some stupid % retained thing, have a look at the 28 and 27 players and just see how many of them are now best 22. Because I counted atleast 15+ for Carlton and 10 if that for Collingwood.

Laughable, again.

There has been so much turnover at Carlton because of the horrific strike rate of trading and drafting at the lower end.

I could read the AFL website and get most of the picks in the top 30 right, but surely a List Manager earns his dues by getting at least a few selections at the bottom end right.

The fact that you guys are openly saying that players were not recruited for the long term, and others have even said there were some players who were acquired not even to play at AFL level, leads to the ridiculous level of turnover that will ensure you remain in the lower rungs of the ladder for the forseeable future.

Your best 22 statement is also ridiculous. Collingwood have been a top 4 team for the past 2 seasons, Carlton bottom 4. See, we recruit for the long term; the revolving door policy does not a successful team make...

 

[Sash Cat]

1) No
2) No

(refer previous 6 wins from past 11 X 2 etc)

Were Richmond entitled to win the 2017 flag after winning 8 games in 2016 or were Brisbane supposed to win 16 games this year after winning 5 in 2018? I am comfortable with my 10 - 15 games scenario.

Your list is nowhere near as good as either of those sides’ though plus Teague is not at the level of Fagan/Hardwick. Just because Richmond and Brisbane did it, doesn’t mean you will. And you can apply your reasoning for Carlton surging up the ladder to literally any club.

As I said, five of your last six wins were against bottom eight sides who had most likely mentally checked out for the season given that they had no hopes of playing finals. You also played Richmond and West Coast when they were both in self preservation mode for finals. Richmond that day were missing Martin, Cotchin, Soldo and Pickett from our premiership side (plus Rance), and actually fielded a younger side than Carlton. Your wins need context and you have an incredibly simplistic and biased take on things.

 

[BigFrizz36]

So you think Carlton are a genuine top 4 chance?

I believe that we have a team (and list) that will win between 10 - 15 games. Pretty sure that I explained why. Clearly I can be dismissed as biased if it suits your argument.

Which part was tricky for you?

Did you think that Brisbane could go from 5 to 16 wins from 2018 to 2019.

Conversely did you think that Melbourne would go from 14 wins in 2018 to 5 wins in 2019?

Not all improvement/decline has to be incremental.

 

[Sash Cat]

So you think Carlton are a genuine top 4 chance?

Yes, that’s what he/she is getting at. Ten wins (which puts them at about 10th to 12th) would be disappointing, apparently.

15 wins is a chance and that guarantees them a top four spot and potentially a home Qualifying Final.

Crazy.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Your list is nowhere near as good as either of those sides’ though plus Teague is not at the level of Fagan/Hardwick. Just because Richmond and Brisbane did it, doesn’t mean you will. And you can apply your reasoning for Carlton surging up the ladder to literally any club.

As I said, five of your last six wins were against bottom eight sides who had most likely mentally checked out for the season given that they had no hopes of playing finals. You also played Richmond and West Coast when they were both in self preservation mode for finals. Richmond that day were missing Martin, Cotchin, Soldo and Pickett from our premiership side (plus Rance), and actually fielded a younger side than Carlton. Your wins need context and you have an incredibly simplistic and biased take on things.

I think that you may have forgotten to include "in my opinion" in your first sentence.

You are welcome to your opinion.

 

[Fadge]

So you think Carlton are a genuine top 4 chance?

It's November and they are equal top at the moment.

Just got to maintain that position...

 

[Sash Cat]

I think that you may have forgotten to include "in my opinion" in your first sentence.

You are welcome to your opinion.

As are you. I’m just trying to digest yours.

So you’re essentially saying you’re a flag chance and Carlton 2020 will be of similar quality to Richmond 2017 and Brisbane 2019?

 

[BigFrizz36]

Laughable, again.

There has been so much turnover at Carlton because of the horrific strike rate of trading and drafting at the lower end.

I could read the AFL website and get most of the picks in the top 30 right, but surely a List Manager earns his dues by getting at least a few selections at the bottom end right.

The fact that you guys are openly saying that players were not recruited for the long term, and others have even said there were some players who were acquired not even to play at AFL level, leads to the ridiculous level of turnover that will ensure you remain in the lower rungs of the ladder for the forseeable future.

Your best 22 statement is also ridiculous. Collingwood have been a top 4 team for the past 2 seasons, Carlton bottom 4. See, we recruit for the long term; the revolving door policy does not a successful team make...

Recruiting for the long term?
So trading your 2018 and 2019 first rounders to get a 28 year old Dayne Beams back is recruiting for the future?
Giving 27 year old Chris Mayne and 29 Lyndon Dunn lists spots is recruiting for the future? Needless to say that Daniel wells was 32 when he went to Collingwood.

Don't kid yourself all recruiters recruit to try and build a premiership winning team. Some inherit different lists and some have different methods of trying to get there

 

[BigFrizz36]

As are you. I’m just trying to digest yours.

So you’re essentially saying you’re a flag chance and Carlton 2020 will be of similar quality to Richmond 2017 and Brisbane 2019?

Not at all. I am saying that I believe that having gone from a 2 win 2018 to a 7 win 2019 that Carlton have the capacity to win between 10 - 15 games in 2020.
I then gave examples of other teams that have made similar advances to show that it can happen.

Those in the cheap seats then do the "You are saying that they will finish top 4" rubbish. Or even better "so you are saying you are a flag chance". By all means comment on my 10 - 15 win claim, but please don't show your ignorance by adding "You are essentially saying you are a flag chance".

 

[Robertio]

Your list is nowhere near as good as either of those sides’ though plus Teague is not at the level of Fagan/Hardwick. Just because Richmond and Brisbane did it, doesn’t mean you will. And you can apply your reasoning for Carlton surging up the ladder to literally any club.

As I said, five of your last six wins were against bottom eight sides who had most likely mentally checked out for the season given that they had no hopes of playing finals. You also played Richmond and West Coast when they were both in self preservation mode for finals. Richmond that day were missing Martin, Cotchin, Soldo and Pickett from our premiership side (plus Rance), and actually fielded a younger side than Carlton. Your wins need context and you have an incredibly simplistic and biased take on things.

Don't think he's the one being biased kiddo.