Uncontracted Tim Kelly

Obeanie1

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First 3 picks is massive massive overs.

But on face value we appear set for the next year or two anyway Eagles nay not value those picks as highly as others.

Trading 3 picks for a player who'll be immediately in the best 22 (and make a strong positive impact to our best 22) is probably still worth the 3 picks in my opinion.

There is a big swell of our A-graders around the 27-28yr old mark (Gaff/Darkling/Cripps/McGovern/Vardy/Hutchings/Sheppard/Hickey/Redden). Shuey/NicNat are 29.

So this is probably the last year I would be ok with selling our of the draft for 1 player.

If there's any hint of Gaff going though I'd rather hit the draft tbh.
If Gaff moves we get to do both. The picks for Gaff should net us Kelly leaving picks to hit the draft.

I really want to get the GC 2nd rounder like last year and trade that for several later picks. But that little trick is out of the bag so I can't see Gold Coast giving it up.

We may be lucky if we retain the Swans 2nd and come draft time we live trade down for a later 2nd and a 3rd if a club is super keen on a kid still on the table.
 

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Kwality

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Yeah but in fairness to TK and Geelong, I think the kids weren't diagnosed until they were in Geelong so they couldn't have foreseen this situation to occur.
I belive TK would have asked for a trade this year. However, the kids conditions obviously brought that forward to last year
Not sure on your timing, Kelly would have been offered a contract extension after a couple of games & didnt bite.
 

Scotland

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Not sure he would've known anything TBH. Sam Menegola (23) and Marcus Adams (22) were both drafted out of the WAFL.

Menegola is still with Geelong, Adams played 3 years with the Dogs and is now in Brisbane. Circumstances change and people either settle in well or they don't.

If Kelly was desperate not to leave WA under any circumstance he would've told clubs that made contact with him pre draft. He may well have told Geelong pre-draft 'yeah I am happy to play anywhere and see how it goes' but I doubt he told them 'please don't pick me I don't want to leave WA' as someone who had been passed over for 5 years. And I doubt Geelong would have taken a punt on him with a pick in the 20s if he did. I also doubt Geelong picked him in the draft without speaking to him.
 

Scotland

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Geelong did 'undercut' WC with pick 24 knowing that we had 26 and 32 before their 36 but that has no bearing on this year.

If Kelly was performing at the same level and Geelong had picked him at 36 they'd still be asking for whatever the current fictional asking price is.
 

Sloane4brownlow

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Not sure he would've known anything TBH. Sam Menegola (23) and Marcus Adams (22) were both drafted out of the WAFL.

Menegola is still with Geelong, Adams played 3 years with the Dogs and is now in Brisbane. Circumstances change and people either settle in well or they don't.

If Kelly was desperate not to leave WA under any circumstance he would've told clubs that made contact with him pre draft. He may well have told Geelong pre-draft 'yeah I am happy to play anywhere and see how it goes' but I doubt he told them 'please don't pick me I don't want to leave WA' as someone who had been passed over for 5 years. And I doubt Geelong would have taken a punt on him with a pick in the 20s if he did. I also doubt Geelong picked him in the draft without speaking to him.
It'd be great to be a fly on the wall in those scenarios.

Kelly must've known Eagles had some form of intent to take him at some point. I wonder if Eagles ever gave him assurance they'd pick him and to hold tight.

Cats must've asked Kelly if he'd be ok to come over, and when he said yes they locked him in. Can't argue with his decision after being overlooked for years prior. He also may have had the same promises in drafts gone by, we'll never know.
 

sherrif

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Herald Sun reporting today that Eagles could effectively get the deal done with our first 3 picks this year. That would be pick 14, 22 and 32. Their view that 22 and 32 would get you pick 9 (for either Eagles or Geelong to broker a deal) meaning Tim goes for 14 and 9’ish.

So the gist of the write up is what they as “independent analysts” think is around the mark.

I expect a whole bunch of negativity in response like usual, but this is a view from a non-invested group so please keep your knickers on and don’t let the petticoats self ignite.

Seems reasonable.
No one would trade 22 and 32 for 9. When a team trades an early pick like Sydney did last year to get a couple of later picks for academy and father son bids they always get more points then the exact amount of the later picks. In the three way Mcgovern trade last year Sydney basically got their academy point plus pick 30 for the 1st round pick. THe reason is that for teams without academy picks an early draft pick has more value than multiple later picks.
 
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Scotland

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If you have 9 then you should have 27 and 45.

If you trade 9 for 22 and 32 then you would have to use 22 and 27 in order to match a bid on 9. Or with discount up to about pick 5. You would then use pick 32.

If you just kept 9 you would use that for a bid pick 6 or later or 9 plus 27 on an earlier bid and then there would be late shuffling.

The only reason you would bother to trade 9 into the 20s and 30s would be a points surplus/player and/or some opportunity to get into the draft earlier and your next pick would be. If a bid is going to cost 9 and 27 (i.e. pick 1 or 2) then a bunch of picks in the 20s hold value. 9 for something like 22 and 32 PLUS another pick in the 20s would start to make sense.
 

AsterixTheGaul

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No one would trade 22 and 32 for 9. When a team trades an early pick like Sydney did last year to get a couple of later picks for academy and father son bids they always get more points then the exact amount of the later picks. In the three way Mcgovern trade last year Sydney basically got their academy point plus pick 30 for the 1st round pick. THe reason is that for teams without academy picks an early draft pick has more value than multiple later picks.
Read my post. As predicted ------ "I expect a whole bunch of negativity in response like usual, but this is a view from a non-invested group so please keep your knickers on and don’t let the petticoats self ignite."
 

Clems Knee

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Read my post. As predicted ------ "I expect a whole bunch of negativity in response like usual, but this is a view from a non-invested group so please keep your knickers on and don’t let the petticoats self ignite."
The problem is that you are assigning authority to the HeraldSun. There are more nuffies posing as Journos in that organisation than there are nuffies posing as ITKs on these boards.
Use logic and work out if pick 9 = pick 22 +31.
 

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Turbocat

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Herald Sun reporting today that Eagles could effectively get the deal done with our first 3 picks this year. That would be pick 14, 22 and 32. Their view that 22 and 32 would get you pick 9 (for either Eagles or Geelong to broker a deal) meaning Tim goes for 14 and 9’ish.

So the gist of the write up is what they as “independent analysts” think is around the mark.

I expect a whole bunch of negativity in response like usual, but this is a view from a non-invested group so please keep your knickers on and don’t let the petticoats self ignite.

Seems reasonable.
Who are the teams that type of arrangment would work for ... who has P9 atm for eg.? Have the done their groundwork or have they just whacked two picks together?

P9 atm is Port , P8 is Carlton and if Suns get a PP..then that might become P9 ... do either have NGA'a ?
 

Nickoo

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Its a simple equation. Tim wants to come home and that narrows the field to two. Tim wont go to a team that finished out of the eight, has no coach, no full forward, no ruckman and has just had two of the best mids in Australia bail amid rumours of serious player dissent. That leaves just WCE. If you go from that premise Geelongs bargaining power is greatly reduced and will get what we give them.
How so given he’s indicated it’s out of Freo, WC or Geel and let’s break it down;
1. Geel best offer just to TK-loves the club, partner not so much
2. Freo next best offer, can satisfy cats pick requirements
3. WC worst of three offers, can’t satisfy cats without doing some fancy dancing and wouldn’t do it last year. But WC is his preference although he’s said now he does not care it’s down to the money.

I’d say given the Hills are leaving, Ross is gone and a coach maybe appt shortly I’d put money on Freo or stay for a year then try for WC again the next year.


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AsterixTheGaul

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Who are the teams that type of arrangment would work for ... who has P9 atm for eg.? Have the done their groundwork or have they just whacked two picks together?

P9 atm is Port , P8 is Carlton and if Suns get a PP..then that might become P9 ... do either have NGA'a ?
Port have Mead - father son
GWS will be wanting to get lower with Green who may go top 6 and Giants hold 11 (not far off)

The point of the post was it is an independent reference point not an authoritative statement.

My experience with this thread is the pushing of own club interest who unfortunately has blinkered too many posters.
 

mayne man

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Which Hill was the problem?


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Well I’m not an expert but after reading and hearing lots of different rumours over the year about the hills and Kelly.
I have come too the conclusion that I don’t know anything at all about their situation. Remember I told you that I’m not an expert at the beginning.
 

sherrif

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Read my post. As predicted ------ "I expect a whole bunch of negativity in response like usual, but this is a view from a non-invested group so please keep your knickers on and don’t let the petticoats self ignite."
THe problem is there is no chance of the Herald Sun logic happening. If you dont believe me look at the Mitch Mcgovern three way trade last year. Part of the trade for MItch Mcgovern involved Sydney and and Carlton exchanging picks for pick 13.
From afl.com.au
'Carlton has relinquished two second-round selections (Picks 26 and 28) from the 2018 national draft in exchange for Pick 13 from the Swans.'
How on earth do you think 22 and 32 (Pick 32 is the WCE second rounder only if they lose on the weekend as well) will equal pick 9 is anyones guess. Pick 9 's significantly better than 13 obviously in points. The reason for Carlton offering more than equal points to Sydney in exchange for pick 13 is that there is more value to teams who dont have academy or father son bids to gain early picks compared to bidding clubs. That's because the bids on first round players recieve a discount of 25% for first round bids. The suggestion also doesnt take into account how the value of picks changes even more because teams take into account how picks slip in the early rounds when a team bids for a player.

If you want to argue or debate it might be an idea to raise the level of the conversation above your average 6 year old insult. No problems putting you on ignore. Fill free to do the same to me. Yeah Im the one that throwing insults because I point out how WC fans attack and personally insult everyone who disagrees with them despite clear gigantic flaws in their logic.
 
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Turbocat

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Port have Mead - father son
GWS will be wanting to get lower with Green who may go top 6 and Giants hold 11 (not far off)

The point of the post was it is an independent reference point not an authoritative statement.

My experience with this thread is the pushing of own club interest who unfortunately has blinkered too many posters.
I think Green is inside 9 ..GWS will want be earlier that. Im not sure where Meed is expect to go but id say 9 ensure Port have a pick before he is called ..
 

Obeanie1

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Who are the teams that type of arrangment would work for ... who has P9 atm for eg.? Have the done their groundwork or have they just whacked two picks together?

P9 atm is Port , P8 is Carlton and if Suns get a PP..then that might become P9 ... do either have NGA'a ?
It would be the Blues pick. They are chasing multiple trade targets and would likely need to convert 8/9 into several lower picks.
 

Obeanie1

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THe problem is there is no chance of the Herald Sun logic happening. If you dont believe me look at the Mitch Mcgovern three way trade last year. Part of the trade for MItch Mcgovern involved Sydney and and Carlton exchanging picks for pick 13.
From afl.com.au
'Carlton has relinquished two second-round selections (Picks 26 and 28) from the 2018 national draft in exchange for Pick 13 from the Swans.'
How on earth do you think 22 and 32 (Pick 32 is the WCE second rounder only if they lose on the weekend as well) will equal pick 9 is anyones guess. Pick 9 's significantly better than 13 obviously in points. The reason for Carlton offering more than equal points to Sydney in exchange for pick 13 is that there is more value to teams who dont have academy or father son bids to gain early picks compared to bidding clubs. That's because the bids on first round players recieve a discount of 25% for first round bids. The suggestion also doesnt take into account how the value of picks changes even more because teams take into account how picks slip in the early rounds when a team bids for a player.

If you want to argue or debate it might be an idea to raise the level of the conversation above your average 6 year old insult. No problems putting you on ignore. Fill free to do the same to me. Yeah Im the one that throwing insults because I point out how WC fans attack and personally insult everyone who disagrees with them despite clear gigantic flaws in their logic.
The logic is last years draft was stronger in the top 15 than this years draft.

That has been reported by several papers and discussed on here already.

Feeling is pick 9 this year wont land you the quality of pick 13 last year. After pick 2/3 this year the quality is even and deeper. Hence why four clubs this year have already stated they would be prepared to trade their top 10 picks. Melbourne, Crows, Blues and Saints. These clubs are chasing multiple targets and obviously do not value those top picks as highly as clubs did last year. Last year noone wanted to trade out of the top 10.
 

Obeanie1

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I think Green is inside 9 ..GWS will want be earlier that. Im not sure where Meed is expect to go but id say 9 ensure Port have a pick before he is called ..
If the Swans keep their current pick I could see them bid on Green. He is the exact type they need and they would also be keen to keep GWS honest.
 

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