Uncontracted Tim Kelly

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Turbocat

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The logic is last years draft was stronger in the top 15 than this years draft.

That has been reported by several papers and discussed on here already.

Feeling is pick 9 this year wont land you the quality of pick 13 last year. After pick 2/3 this year the quality is even and deeper. Hence why four clubs this year have already stated they would be prepared to trade their top 10 picks. Melbourne, Crows, Blues and Saints. These clubs are chasing multiple targets and obviously do not value those top picks as highly as clubs did last year. Last year noone wanted to trade out of the top 10.
Certainly Gee wanted to get into that King range last year... thats not there this year
 

AsterixTheGaul

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I think Green is inside 9 ..GWS will want be earlier that. Im not sure where Meed is expect to go but id say 9 ensure Port have a pick before he is called ..
Further reference points.

Twomey rated Green at 5 while Knightmare rated him at 2. Not asking you to agree, just recognise. Supposedly St Kilda and another Melbourne team have been quite big on Green.

All of Melbourne, St Kilda, Adelaide and Carlton have stated that they would be interested in multiple first round picks for their very early picks. That has not been the case in prior years to my knowledge.

Hypothetical - would GWS accept Hawthorn’s pick 10 for Paton and pick 13 since it is more of a salary dump? Not out of the question?

I am expecting high diversity in the top 10 prospects from different clubs and more surprises in the first 2 rounds than in more recent drafts.

All this means to me is that there will be considerable opportunities to get picks inside the top 10.

I actually have a high regard for Wells as a talent identifier and what he said he wanted in the 2018 draft will not be the same as what he wants this year. Personal opinion only because I see a very different outlook this year.
 

Taylor

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So with a Goldstein turning his back on the Cats reported 4 year deal, will Wells and Co be harder to deal with?
I don't know about a four year offer from the Cats.

Reports were Todd had two years on the table at the Roos, so he explored options.
Todd signs three year deal at the Roos. North Melbourne stump up the extra year of security and their ruck is happy to stay.

If Tim Kelly would sign a seven year deal with Geelong, now that is where it gets interesting.
 

AsterixTheGaul

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I don't know about a four year offer from the Cats.

Reports were Todd had two years on the table at the Roos, so he explored options.
Todd signs three year deal at the Roos. North Melbourne stump up the extra year of security and their ruck is happy to stay.

If Tim Kelly would sign a seven year deal with Geelong, now that is where it gets interesting.
Sam Edmund reporting today that Cats offered a 4 year deal which pushed Norf up to a 3 year deal.

Now a 7 year deal with Geelong for Kelly would be a complete about face. I would actually like to see that offered but there again I think Geelong have tried really hard to accommodate Kelly and the desire to leave is not about the club but the lack of family support.
 

Turbocat

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Further reference points.

Twomey rated Green at 5 while Knightmare rated him at 2. Not asking you to agree, just recognise. Supposedly St Kilda and another Melbourne team have been quite big on Green.

All of Melbourne, St Kilda, Adelaide and Carlton have stated that they would be interested in multiple first round picks for their very early picks. That has not been the case in prior years to my knowledge.

Hypothetical - would GWS accept Hawthorn’s pick 10 for Paton and pick 13 since it is more of a salary dump? Not out of the question?

I am expecting high diversity in the top 10 prospects from different clubs and more surprises in the first 2 rounds than in more recent drafts.

All this means to me is that there will be considerable opportunities to get picks inside the top 10.

I actually have a high regard for Wells as a talent identifier and what he said he wanted in the 2018 draft will not be the same as what he wants this year. Personal opinion only because I see a very different outlook this year.
I dont disagre with most of this... how early Green gets bid on is questionable ..does the standard of the draft alter that.. Usually bis go later ..sometime much later than the value. What is the earliest bid on a player so far ..Daniher ? Not sure. but bidding on Green with single figure would be close to highest ever.
I agree the demand for an early pick like last year is not critical..there is no King this year ..but Geelong has also had a few failure in late teen picks so it will be worth observing who they have their eye on. I hope a ruck is in their mind.
 

Turbocat

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Sam Edmund reporting today that Cats offered a 4 year deal which pushed Norf up to a 3 year deal.

Now a 7 year deal with Geelong for Kelly would be a complete about face. I would actually like to see that offered but there again I think Geelong have tried really hard to accommodate Kelly and the desire to leave is not about the club but the lack of family support.
Any contract with kelly would have outs... he may want to have his future secure.. it why I feel the draft is a dropbear .. if a deal cant get done ..he would rather less dissrupt his playing by staying in geelong than going anywhere else.

The GSten thing may mean Geelong will need to trade in a ruck...which changes things a lot.
 

JackOutback

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Eagles fans would see trading out of the draft as overs, Cats would know two second round picks do not equal 9 and see it as unders, so probably about right. Eagles loaded up with high-ish picks last season, so could probably afford to miss one weaker draft. Cats would get their three picks before 32 (not 30, I know).
 

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Sloane4brownlow

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Eagles fans would see trading out of the draft as overs, Cats would know two second round picks do not equal 9 and see it as unders, so probably about right. Eagles loaded up with high-ish picks last season, so could probably afford to miss one weaker draft. Cats would get their three picks before 32 (not 30, I know).
Last year it was "no deal - not a top 10 pick"
This year "no deal - it's not 3 picks inside 30".
 

GoGeta

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Kelly isn't worth a 7 year deal imo. Hardly anyone is.

I do think that the Cats are trying to push up his price with this 3 picks stuff, in hopes of then negotiating for a young KPP prospect and the original 2 late firsts.

There's just no real incentive for the Eagles to go hard at finding a top 10 pick unless Kelly legitimately will go to Freo which seems unlikely.
 

Scotland

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I hope we do some pick shuffling and end up with 27, 28, 29. There you go, 3 inside 30. :)

Srsly though, 4 year contract for Goldstein? He's beeb alright this year but is 31 and hasn't been in the 40 man AA squad since 2015. I don't buy it, sounds like optimistic reporting.

Cox retired at 33, Sandilands played a full season at 32 and has limped through the last 4 years, Ryder is on the outer at 31, Jacobs is on the outer at 31... any team signing up a 31 year old ruckman on a 4 year deal would be taking a big risk.
 

GoGeta

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I wanted Goldy, but I agree that 4 years would have been silly, 3 years front loaded would have been ok with me though, Goldy has been unusually durable thus far and I would have been happy with 2 solid years out of him.
 

sherrif

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The logic is last years draft was stronger in the top 15 than this years draft.

That has been reported by several papers and discussed on here already.

Feeling is pick 9 this year wont land you the quality of pick 13 last year. After pick 2/3 this year the quality is even and deeper. Hence why four clubs this year have already stated they would be prepared to trade their top 10 picks. Melbourne, Crows, Blues and Saints. These clubs are chasing multiple targets and obviously do not value those top picks as highly as clubs did last year. Last year noone wanted to trade out of the top 10.
I havent read anything that says clubs want to trade early picks for picks as late as 32. PIck 22 is also likely to be pushed back by the time the draft comes around if there are multiple pick bids for any of the three likely academy/father son bids. Give up. There is less than zero chance any team will do the trade you are suggesting. There is still plenty of interest in the likes of Luke Jackson,Dylan Williams, Hayden Young Fischer McAsey and Dylan Stephens who will likely be around the mark at pick 9 and have been described as outstanding prospects by some of the better draft experts on bigfooty alone. Essendon, GWS, North Melbourne and Geelong are just some of the teams who are rumoured to be warming to Luke Jackson in particluar, who finished the year dominating at Colts level in WA. He'll be around the mark at Pick 9 so its highly likely that rather than moving down there will be a few teams trying to move up if it means having the chance to draft Luke. Live in fantasy land if you want, doesnt change the fact your trade suggestion is absurd.
 

Lore

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Next person who tries to drag this thread into a discussion about Willie Rioli is going to get points.

Off-topic and inappropriate. I’m sure there are loads of other threads in other boards where that discussion would be welcome.
 

Wojcinski

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Next person who tries to drag this thread into a discussion about Willie Rioli is going to get points.

Off-topic and inappropriate. I’m sure there are loads of other threads in other boards where that discussion would be welcome.
I thought the question and answer were pretty respectful and not even close to trolling?
 

Obeanie1

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I havent read anything that says clubs want to trade early picks for picks as late as 32. PIck 22 is also likely to be pushed back by the time the draft comes around if there are multiple pick bids for any of the three likely academy/father son bids. Give up. There is less than zero chance any team will do the trade you are suggesting. There is still plenty of interest in the likes of Luke Jackson,Dylan Williams, Hayden Young Fischer McAsey and Dylan Stephens who will likely be around the mark at pick 9 and have been described as outstanding prospects by some of the better draft experts on bigfooty alone. Essendon, GWS, North Melbourne and Geelong are just some of the teams who are rumoured to be warming to Luke Jackson in particluar, who finished the year dominating at Colts level in WA. He'll be around the mark at Pick 9 so its highly likely that rather than moving down there will be a few teams trying to move up if it means having the chance to draft Luke. Live in fantasy land if you want, doesnt change the fact your trade suggestion is absurd.
Stop being so defensive.

You put up your view as well as throwing personal insults around.

My response was logical and factual based on articles published recently. Just because you don't admit to reading them doesn't mean they are not there.

Facts are several clubs have stated they will look to trading out of the top 10. How and what they get can be 50 different ways.

Fact is its been reported this draft is not rated as good as last years. Top 2-3 are quality and then it evens out and is deep after pick 3. So two picks in the top 30 is better than a single pick 9. Four clubs with top 10 picks have pressing needs to get involed in multiple trades or want multiple top 30 picks.

This logical view doesn't suit your agenda so you get all antsi and defensive.

You asked for a logical argument. You have one.
 

sherrif

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Sam Edmund reporting today that Cats offered a 4 year deal which pushed Norf up to a 3 year deal.

Now a 7 year deal with Geelong for Kelly would be a complete about face. I would actually like to see that offered but there again I think Geelong have tried really hard to accommodate Kelly and the desire to leave is not about the club but the lack of family support.
Eventhough he actually does have family support in Geelong.
Stop being so defensive.

You put up your view as well as throwing personal insults around.

My response was logical and factual based on articles published recently. Just because you don't admit to reading them doesn't mean they are not there.

Facts are several clubs have stated they will look to trading out of the top 10. How and what they get can be 50 different ways.

Fact is its been reported this draft is not rated as good as last years. Top 2-3 are quality and then it evens out and is deep after pick 3. So two picks in the top 30 is better than a single pick 9. Four clubs with top 10 picks have pressing needs to get involed in multiple trades or want multiple top 30 picks.

This logical view doesn't suit your agenda so you get all antsi and defensive.

You asked for a logical argument. You have one.
You have zero logical arguments thats kinda the point. PIck 22 and 32 is not getting you in the vicinity of PIck 9 and thats proven by whats happened in every trade period ever. Im not throwing insults around at all. You interpret pointing out how your posts are absurd as being an insult because you cant argue your way out of a wet paper bag, while throwing insults at anyone who points out the massive logic flaws in what you write. If you dont want debate why bother posting anything? That's not a personal insult its a basic observation based. By the way Im not sure how you can say teams want to trade out of the top ten. In a shallow draft the opposite of what you say is always true (teams want to trade up). No team shows their hand to the media before trade week and they havent even had the Draft Combine. THere's a heap of things for clubs to go throw before they even form their final view of the quality of the draft. Every year there is also always players who rise dramatically after the afl draft combine and after teams do their final assessments of players. Logue, Brayshaw and Tarranto are some of the players who rose dramatically in rankings in the weeks before the draft in recent years

You're using rumour and innuendo as facts and they are not. Unless the actual quotes that teams want to trade out for much later picks have been confirmed by direct quotes from clubs, then all you are doing is quoting hyperbole from the media.Speculation articles (like the one you originally quoted) or on-line draft opinions mean next to nothing in reality.

Speaking of reality versus fiction. Tim Kelly's finish to the year continues to be outstanding. After tonight he would have been in Geelongs' best four players in at least five of the last seven games. Kicks left and right foot. Wins the 1oth amount of clearances of any player in the afl regular season. Covers more distance than any other player in the last quarter of an afl final. Seven inside 50's and two goals. Deadset gun.
 
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