Player Watch Welcome to Hawthorn : Jai “Duke” Newcombe - 2022 AFLCA Best Young Player, extends to 2026!

[Strapping Young Lad]

 

[Bugs1977]

Just watched the replay back and I may have been a few metres short.

I also saw Mrs. Krabappel and Principal Skinner were in the closet making babies and I saw one of the babies and the baby looked at me.

I don’t think you were far off… in dog years

 

[m0zza]

Got a little bit of attention at the contest from Rowell who had 13 contested possessions on him while Duke had 3 (2 frees and a contested mark).

He was pretty easily worried off the ground ball a couple of times or just fumbled it.

Just needs to attack the contest to win the ball on the ground as well as he does in the air.

All in all a good learning process for his future. Showing him where he needs to improve.

So a MSD pick, not drafted in two National Drafts, was tagged by the Number 1 pick from his draft year
And beaten
FMD if the tag was the other way round and Rowell had little influence you would say Mewk did his job
The expectations might be unrealistic

 

[H00t]

So a MSD pick, not drafted in two National Drafts, was tagged by the Number 1 pick from his draft year
And beaten
FMD if the tag was the other way round and Rowell had little influence you would say Mewk did his job
The expectations might be unrealistic

Once your drafted your draft pick doesn’t matter. Especially with someone like duke.

It wasn’t even a hard tag. Just a little body pressure at the stoppage to prevent Duke from running around free like he normally does.

If we want duke to become a really good mid he’s going to have to overcome bigger challenges.

Duke’s young and I expect him to bounce back this week. It’s just that it was a poor showing from him. And it exposed some of his weaknesses in his contested game. It’s up to him now to work on those weaknesses.

 

[The Chad and I]

Rowell is way ahead of Newcombe, so I'm not surprised if he beat him.
Newcombe sounds like he is a very motivated guy, so these lessons are important for his development.

 

[theiaofseed]

Once your drafted your draft pick doesn’t matter. Especially with someone like duke.

It wasn’t even a hard tag. Just a little body pressure at the stoppage to prevent Duke from running around free like he normally does.

If we want duke to become a really good mid he’s going to have to overcome bigger challenges.

Duke’s young and I expect him to bounce back this week. It’s just that it was a poor showing from him. And it exposed some of his weaknesses in his contested game. It’s up to him now to work on those weaknesses.

You know you can become elite midfielder without being an elite contested mid, he's closer to a Gaff than Mitchell

 

[H00t]

You know you can become elite midfielder without being an elite contested mid, he's closer to a Gaff than Mitchell

You can become an elite outside mid, but there is a gap between the best outside mids and those that can play inside.

Definitely agree he’s closer to Gaff than Mitchell. If anything I see similarities with Isaac Smith if Smith was built like Daniel Rich.

I’m just hoping his inside game will come along as well as his outside game has. But I’d guess he’s probably always been more an outside mid and it’s why he’s stepped up so much at each time he’s gone up a level as been able to find much more space.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

You know you can become elite midfielder without being an elite contested mid, he's closer to a Gaff than Mitchell

Did you just say Duke is closer to Gaff than Mitchell? LOL

 

[Dewyyyyy]

You can become an elite outside mid, but there is a gap between the best outside mids and those that can play inside.

Definitely agree he’s closer to Gaff than Mitchell. If anything I see similarities with Isaac Smith if Smith was built like Daniel Rich.

I’m just hoping his inside game will come along as well as his outside game has. But I’d guess he’s probably always been more an outside mid and it’s why he’s stepped up so much at each time he’s gone up a level as been able to find much more space.

Duke's game entirely always has been built on his tackling, contested ball and ability to dish it out quickly. But that's not the role he's playing atm playing more balanced which has meant he's been able to hold his width well and receive instead of getting it himself. He'll learn the balance part soon, but to say he's close to Gaff or Smith you're joking.

 

[H00t]

Duke's game entirely always has been built on his tackling, contested ball and ability to dish it out quickly. But that's not the role he's playing atm playing more balanced which has meant he's been able to hold his width well and receive instead of getting it himself. He'll learn the balance part soon, but to say he's close to Gaff or Smith you're joking.

That’s how he’s played most of this year. He hasn’t shown much of his strong contested side yet. He seems much happier sitting back laying a tackle than attacking the ball so far.

He’s built his strong form this year on finding space, kicking long and being an outlet out of the contest. He also does well defending space out of the contest. He’s only won 83 contested possessions vs 164 uncontested and nearly a quarter of those contested possessions have been frees (19).

That’s not to say he won’t become a strong inside mid. But he’s played way more outside so far.

 

[chopflop]

Duke's game entirely always has been built on his tackling, contested ball and ability to dish it out quickly. But that's not the role he's playing atm playing more balanced which has meant he's been able to hold his width well and receive instead of getting it himself. He'll learn the balance part soon, but to say he's close to Gaff or Smith you're joking.

I'm glad that you have taken this view Dom. Just validates my own perspective. Duke is not a contested ball winning mid. He got smoked by Rowell because that is Rowell's one wood. Duke is an outside leaning mid who can tackle really well.

Duke's rise shows how much we need a clearance winning contested ball mid to feed him properly.

I am hopefully his 1st possession game improves. But atm league wide he is below average for contested possession rate. Meaning he is objectively not a classic ball winner

 

[Dewyyyyy]

That’s how he’s played most of this year. He hasn’t shown much of his strong contested side yet. He seems much happier sitting back laying a tackle than attacking the ball so far.

He’s built his strong form this year on finding space, kicking long and being an outlet out of the contest. He also does well defending space out of the contest. He’s only won 83 contested possessions vs 164 uncontested and nearly a quarter of those contested possessions have been frees (19).

That’s not to say he won’t become a strong inside mid. But he’s played way more outside so far.

Yep but it's not that he can't do it, it's that the role he's been playing is more as the 1st outlet for Titch, Worpel to handball to.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

I'm glad that you have taken this view Dom. Just validates my own perspective. Duke is not a contested ball winning mid. He got smoked by Rowell because that is Rowell's one wood. Duke is an outside leaning mid who can tackle really well.

Duke's rise shows how much we need a clearance winning contested ball mid to feed him properly.

I am hopefully his 1st possession game improves. But atm league wide he is below average for contested possession rate. Meaning he is objectively not a classic ball winner

Just validates your own perspective because i disagree?

He built his game last year entirely on contested ball and tackling, his outside game was limited.

He's improved his tank and outside game and has moved to more of a role where he doesn't do it as much. More as a first outlet player.

This was in my view to benefit Worpel as the no1 inside bull with Ward,Newc the other two most CBAs (pretty often) with Jaeger and Titch rounding it out.

But since Worpel's been thrown out, the first game he was fully, Newc was good in the clearances, contested ball, outside game and played a full 4 quarter performance against Brisbane. He had a really poor game against Gold Coast but he's a kid.

He had i think 12 touches but did lay 7 tackles.

It's a down game but it was pretty tough for all of our players.

 

[Brishawk]

Jai ranks average for contested possessions and total clearances, and above average for centre clearances. This isn’t someone who is playing purely outside. He isn’t dominant on the inside but part of that is because around the ground stoppages tend to be won by Mitchell and omeara. He also reads the ball around the packs well to be that outlet player and break into space. This is a good sign as a lessor player would likely be caught receiving the ball around the packs and notch a contested possession.

It does mean that his supply can be cut off if others aren’t winning the all. Anyway, this is his role right now. He is well capable of winning contested ball but we aren’t using him in that way right now. It is a hard ask in your first real season to win a high proportion of contested possessions. Rowell did but he also couldn’t stay on the park in his first two seasons and hasn’t looked the same as his first five games since.

 

[theiaofseed]

Did you just say Duke is closer to Gaff than Mitchell? LOL

Yes how can you not come to that conclusion... he's a high impact players that gains meters through elite disposal and run and carry, when he gets the ball he looks to kick and be dangerous or take the game on himself, Mitchell like purer inside mids are low meters gain, lack run and carry and dish the ball off to the outside first and foremost.

Kick to handball ratio reflects this along side metes gained per disposal.

61% of Newcombes disposals are kicks compared to 44% of Mitchell's, Newcombe averages 22.2 meters per touch while Mitchell is only 12.6, 34% of Newcombes disposals are uncontested while Mitchell's is at 48%, does this sounds like similar players,

If you truly believe "Duke's game entirely always has been built on his tackling, contested ball and ability to dish it out quickly" I have to question how much attention you actual pay attention during a game/

 

[TylerDurden]

Jai ranks average for contested possessions and total clearances, and above average for centre clearances. This isn’t someone who is playing purely outside. He isn’t dominant on the inside but part of that is because around the ground stoppages tend to be won by Mitchell and omeara. He also reads the ball around the packs well to be that outlet player and break into space. This is a good sign as a lessor player would likely be caught receiving the ball around the packs and notch a contested possession.

It does mean that his supply can be cut off if others aren’t winning the all. Anyway, this is his role right now. He is well capable of winning contested ball but we aren’t using him in that way right now. It is a hard ask in your first real season to win a high proportion of contested possessions. Rowell did but he also couldn’t stay on the park in his first two seasons and hasn’t looked the same as his first five games since.

Agree. It's because Tom, Jom, or Worpel are usually the 'hit to' players at a stoppage.
Absolutely he is an inside mid, who can burst from a stoppage. He's more Ricciuto or Dangerfield, than anyone.

 

[H00t]

Jai ranks average for contested possessions and total clearances, and above average for centre clearances. This isn’t someone who is playing purely outside. He isn’t dominant on the inside but part of that is because around the ground stoppages tend to be won by Mitchell and omeara. He also reads the ball around the packs well to be that outlet player and break into space. This is a good sign as a lessor player would likely be caught receiving the ball around the packs and notch a contested possession.

It does mean that his supply can be cut off if others aren’t winning the all. Anyway, this is his role right now. He is well capable of winning contested ball but we aren’t using him in that way right now. It is a hard ask in your first real season to win a high proportion of contested possessions. Rowell did but he also couldn’t stay on the park in his first two seasons and hasn’t looked the same as his first five games since.

I’d almost say it’s the opposite. Young players generally win a fair chunk of contested possessions. Its their uncontested game that improves as time goes on.

Contested ball is mostly between the ears. Do you want the ball more than the other bloke trying to get it.

I’d like to see duke crack in when it’s his turn and win the ball. It could be purely due to coaching but he seems to prefer to let the opposition win the ball then tackle then.

Below his knees and when the balls in dispute is where Duke needs to improve.

 

[cryptor]

Would've thought Liam Shiels

14

Liam Shiels

Age

32

Ht

184cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.2

5star

K

11.7

4star

HB

8.5

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.9

5star

CL

3.4

5star

D

17.4

4star

K

10.4

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

4.1

5star

CL

1.9

4star

D

12.2

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

3.8

5star

was the obvious comparison. Both solidly built mids with (at first glance) surprising aerobic capacity. Tackling machines when needed and can play inside and outside.

Comparison at same age indicates a lot of similarities in their stats and in particular the split between contested and uncontested ball.

Jai Newcombe and Liam Shiels AFL Stats Comparison

Jai Newcombe and Liam Shiels AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

I think based on what we've seen Nuke will be the better player but in terms of similarities he's far closer to Shiels than he is Mitchell or Gaff.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Yes how can you not come to that conclusion... he's a high impact players that gains meters through elite disposal and run and carry, when he gets the ball he looks to kick and be dangerous or take the game on himself, Mitchell like purer inside mids are low meters gain, lack run and carry and dish the ball off to the outside first and foremost.

Kick to handball ratio reflects this along side metes gained per disposal.

61% of Newcombes disposals are kicks compared to 44% of Mitchell's, Newcombe averages 22.2 meters per touch while Mitchell is only 12.6, 34% of Newcombes disposals are uncontested while Mitchell's is at 48%, does this sounds like similar players,

If you truly believe "Duke's game entirely always has been built on his tackling, contested ball and ability to dish it out quickly" I have to question how much attention you actual pay attention during a game/

The point for me is he is neither. Gaff is a wingman who holds width and rarely goes into the middle. He’s a lot like a Parish on a wing he loves to chip it around and run hard.

Dukes game originally was built off of contested footy. It’s changed with both role and what he’s wanted to improve which we know he is a very motivated player.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Jai ranks average for contested possessions and total clearances, and above average for centre clearances. This isn’t someone who is playing purely outside. He isn’t dominant on the inside but part of that is because around the ground stoppages tend to be won by Mitchell and omeara. He also reads the ball around the packs well to be that outlet player and break into space. This is a good sign as a lessor player would likely be caught receiving the ball around the packs and notch a contested possession.

It does mean that his supply can be cut off if others aren’t winning the all. Anyway, this is his role right now. He is well capable of winning contested ball but we aren’t using him in that way right now. It is a hard ask in your first real season to win a high proportion of contested possessions. Rowell did but he also couldn’t stay on the park in his first two seasons and hasn’t looked the same as his first five games since.

This

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Would've thought Liam Shiels was the obvious comparison. Both solidly built mids with (at first glance) surprising aerobic capacity. Tackling machines when needed and can play inside and outside.

Comparison at same age indicates a lot of similarities in their stats and in particular the split between contested and uncontested ball.

Jai Newcombe and Liam Shiels AFL Stats Comparison

Jai Newcombe and Liam Shiels AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

I think based on what we've seen Nuke will be the better player but in terms of similarities he's far closer to Shiels than he is Mitchell or Gaff.

None of the above. None of those have his ability in the air. None have the long raking kick either. He’s also built bigger both in height and weight than all 3 aswell as being the most explosive.

I’d compare him like Tyler did to the Danger type or for me I’ve went with Petracca.

 

[theiaofseed]

The point for me is he is neither. Gaff is a wingman who holds width and rarely goes into the middle. He’s a lot like a Parish on a wing he loves to chip it around and run hard.

Dukes game originally was built off of contested footy. It’s changed with both role and what he’s wanted to improve which we know he is a very motivated player.

He didn't

 

[chopflop]

Just validates your own perspective because i disagree?

He built his game last year entirely on contested ball and tackling, his outside game was limited.

He's improved his tank and outside game and has moved to more of a role where he doesn't do it as much. More as a first outlet player.

This was in my view to benefit Worpel as the no1 inside bull with Ward,Newc the other two most CBAs (pretty often) with Jaeger and Titch rounding it out.

But since Worpel's been thrown out, the first game he was fully, Newc was good in the clearances, contested ball, outside game and played a full 4 quarter performance against Brisbane. He had a really poor game against Gold Coast but he's a kid.

He had i think 12 touches but did lay 7 tackles.

It's a down game but it was pretty tough for all of our players.

I’d almost say it’s the opposite. Young players generally win a fair chunk of contested possessions. Its their uncontested game that improves as time goes on.

Contested ball is mostly between the ears. Do you want the ball more than the other bloke trying to get it.

I’d like to see duke crack in when it’s his turn and win the ball. It could be purely due to coaching but he seems to prefer to let the opposition win the ball then tackle then.

Below his knees and when the balls in dispute is where Duke needs to improve.

On this point. I can't remember where I heard it or watched it, but it was a media story/interview with a recruiter/list manager. They said

The easiest thing to fix is disposal efficiency but the speed and contested possession winning ability between juniors and seniors is pretty much constant. Means if you aren't winning contested ball as a junior, you will find it tough to learn how to win contested ball.

We shouldn't be aiming for Newcombe to be an inside mid, we should draft the best one available

 

[Dewyyyyy]

He didn't

Watching his VFL footy last year and his first few games. It was either tackling built or quick hands out of stoppages which was a lot of his disposals against Sydney in his first game. His outside game had talent but wasn’t refined, he showed it with his big leg.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

On this point. I can't remember where I heard it or watched it, but it was a media story/interview with a recruiter/list manager. They said

The easiest thing to fix is disposal efficiency but the speed and contested possession winning ability between juniors and seniors is pretty much constant. Means if you aren't winning contested ball as a junior, you will find it tough to learn how to win contested ball.

We shouldn't be aiming for Newcombe to be an inside mid, we should draft the best one available

He’s unlikely to be a Mitchell level contested ball winner but he’ll be very good at it. His game is gonna be very balanced and really well spread with little weakness. It’s why I see him as Petracca type who can do basically everything.

 

[badgrill]

None of the above. None of those have his ability in the air. None have the long raking kick either. He’s also built bigger both in height and weight than all 3 aswell as being the most explosive.

I’d compare him like Tyler did to the Danger type or for me I’ve went with Petracca.

seen (and tend to agree) some compare him more to Mark Ricciuto