Where are we going to finish?

[NaturalDisaster]

will get hard draw next year and miss the finals again

they need to back emelves in this year

crows will s**t the bed at the G

Nah

We get another kpf and we will improve even more with the right trading imo

We could be only a year or two away from contending

 

[Groupie_]

Nah

We get another kpf and we will improve even more with the right trading imo

We could be only a year or two away from contending

Griffith to star in the finals

 

[Tiger Toffee]

IMO we will finish 4th and to be frank, have probably stretched to get there.
Will finish on 15 wins and a % of around say 113

Previous years this would have had us finishing:
2016 - 8th
2015 - 5th
2014 - 5th
2013 - 5th
2012 - 7th

Pre-season most of us were predicting missing finals - perhaps scraping into 8th - to finish 4th after the H&A would be a great result. We have hit our limit though I reckon.
Great backline, a midfield that if it clicks can break-even with the leagues best but a forward line that has been cobbled together to get the best possible result based on available personnel.
The speedy little pressure guys are all young and inexperienced and were always going to struggle to sustain a full year of output... let alone late in the H&A and then finals when more seasoned, hardened and experienced opponents will hold sway.

Also, we took most opponents and coaches by surprise early on with the style of play - they have responded and are now shutting down our areas that worked for us.
Even Rance is being nullified with clever coaching against him.

We need another couple of new tricks to win pressure September games IMO and of course, the lack of a solid 2nd tall up forward is only going to bite harder in the weeks ahead.

Whatever happens, it's more about 2018 and 2019 for us IMO.

+ must sign Dusty.

You do know we have only lost 1 game in a row right and have actually won 4 out of our last 5 and even further than that it's 8 out of last 11.

People are carrying on like we have dropped 5 on the trot and what is it that when we have a loss it's doomsday time.

I do think some tiger fans and media overreact a bit too much to a tiger loss.

 

[tigernsw]

More than likely finals include:

3rd and GWS away
4th and Adelaide away

5th and Bulldogs MCG
6th and Shemons MCG

Top 4 if we win both and might get us 3rd
Top 4 if we win 1 more and Dogs beat Port and Crows beat Swans

 

[Roachy8]

You do know we have only lost 1 game in a row right and have actually won 4 out of our last 5 and even further than that it's 8 out of last 11.

People are carrying on like we have dropped 5 on the trot and what is it that when we have a loss it's doomsday time.

I do think some tiger fans and media overreact a bit too much to a tiger loss.

Not overreacting toffee - in fact I reckon we will win next two and therefore lock away 4th which will be a great result considering last years enema of a season.
Doomsday?
Sadly I don't yet believe we have quite enough grit or forward line scoring power to win 3 high pressure Sept games in a row.

 

[Groupie_]

Would love to cop Poort at the G in the semi final

it possible if they play Melbin in the elim final

 

[Tiger Toffee]

Not overreacting toffee - in fact I reckon we will win next two and therefore lock away 4th which will be a great result considering last years enema of a season.
Doomsday?
Sadly I don't yet believe we have quite enough grit or forward line scoring power to win 3 high pressure Sept games in a row.

This time last year the crows were flying and the dogs were stumbling to the finals with questions marks over their list to the point everyone predicted them to be rock and rolled in the first week of finals.
We have the grit i reckon and as for scoring see below.

Fun Fact: dogs in 2016 entered the finals as the 12th ranked team for scoring after home and away but more importantly entered with the 3rd best defence.

 

[Tiger Toffee]

Would love to cop Poort at the G in the semi final

it possible if they play Melbin in the elim final

There will be an upset in the first week of finals, 2011/12/13/15/16 have produced a win by a team on the road first week.

 

[Roachy8]

This time last year the crows were flying and the dogs were stumbling to the finals with questions marks over their list to the point everyone predicted them to be rock and rolled in the first week of finals.
We have the grit i reckon and as for scoring see below.

Fun Fact: dogs in 2016 entered the finals as the 12th ranked team for scoring after home and away but more importantly entered with the 3rd best defence.

Fair e nuff - and you might be on the money that this could repeat for us & I hope so... in that case the loss on Sat may have been the perfect thing to happen to ensure we stay focussed.

 

[energyquant]

IMO we will finish 4th and to be frank, have probably stretched to get there.
Will finish on 15 wins and a % of around say 113

Previous years this would have had us finishing:
2016 - 8th
2015 - 5th
2014 - 5th
2013 - 5th
2012 - 7th

Pre-season most of us were predicting missing finals - perhaps scraping into 8th - to finish 4th after the H&A would be a great result. We have hit our limit though I reckon.
Great backline, a midfield that if it clicks can break-even with the leagues best but a forward line that has been cobbled together to get the best possible result based on available personnel.
The speedy little pressure guys are all young and inexperienced and were always going to struggle to sustain a full year of output... let alone late in the H&A and then finals when more seasoned, hardened and experienced opponents will hold sway.

Also, we took most opponents and coaches by surprise early on with the style of play - they have responded and are now shutting down our areas that worked for us.
Even Rance is being nullified with clever coaching against him.

We need another couple of new tricks to win pressure September games IMO and of course, the lack of a solid 2nd tall up forward is only going to bite harder in the weeks ahead.

Whatever happens, it's more about 2018 and 2019 for us IMO.

+ must sign Dusty.

Great analysis. I hadn't recognised just how lucky we were to still be in the hunt for a top 4 spot. It's easy to forget that we had 15 win seasons in 2013 and 2015, and they were only good enough for a 5th place finish. So, this year is "just another" 15 win season that, combined with our poor percentage, says a lot about where we are really at as a football team.

Cheers.

Dave P.

 

[tigernsw]

Would love to cop Poort at the G in the semi final

it possible if they play Melbin in the elim final

For that to happen we'd need:
* To win our next 2
* Dogs to beat Port
* Hawks to beat Dogs in round 23. Hodge last game - could happen

C'mon Crowbots!

 

[tigs2010]

Would love to cop Poort at the G in the semi final

it possible if they play Melbin in the elim final

WC better.

Or we win first final and avoid semis. Delicious

 

[Tiger Toffee]

Fair e nuff - and you might be on the money that this could repeat for us & I hope so... in that case the loss on Sat may have been the perfect thing to happen to ensure we stay focussed.

We weren't blown away and if not for some comical shots by Houli and some brain fades in the back half by Nank and Bellis which lead directly to cats goals in the last qtr we could've won.

We won 2 qtrs as did the cats but our 2 qtrs lost were worse than geelongs.

Rich qtrs won 22-20 and 22-4
Gee qtrs won 33-7 and 23-15

The bolded is where we lost the game.

 

[docko911]

We could still finish 9th

Lose both

West Coast win 2
Melbourne win 2
Western Bulldogs win 2
Port and Sydney win 1

Our percentage is the worst of the lot.

In other news we could also finish 3rd and play Geelong.

GWS either lose to West Coast or win by less than 20
Geelong beat GWS
Geelong win their other game

We beat Freo and St Kilda and make up a gap of about 110-130 points or GWS drop both games

If the AFL were orchestrating the top 4. It would be most logical to have 2 Vic teams play week 1 in qualifying final because it guarantees finals at the MCG for each round.

 

[prodigy]

There will be an upset in the first week of finals, 2011/12/13/15/16 have produced a win by a team on the road first week.

Yeah we will beat Adelaide.


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[WATiger86]

West Coast win 2

lol

 

[Jimmy Jess]

We didn't get beaten by Adelaide, we were non competitive

We never looked likely against Geelong missing their best forward, 2nd and 3rd best mids, and a host of players only just returning from injury

Overcame an injury riddled gws in favourable conditions, and gave up a significant match winning lead the other time (that counts as a poor performance)

Gave up a significant match h winning lead to Sydney (again another poor performance that shows we aren't up to their level)

Beat port the ultimate flat track bullies, good win.

Barely scraped over the line against an injury destroyed Melbourne with half a bench for half the game. You can bet if they did that to us in the same circumstances we wouldn't call it a good win.

Beat eagle's, solid win.

Against dogs gave up yet another match winning lead. Since it happened so often it shows clearly that when the good teams turn it on for a half so easily against us, we're nowhere near them.

Beat bombers, ok win.

And if you are going to go outside the 8 looking for wins you can't ignore the uncompetitive loss to the saints, the next team down the line.

So in there is a couple good wins, a couple ok wins, some uncompetitive games and some games where we game up match winning leads in a half or less. Hardly a record deserving being among the top 4. We will finish 5th which is the highest we deserve to be, and fall out again as we crumble under pressure like we have all year.

Try looking at it like this.

Supporting Richmond is a bit like getting a ticket in tattslotto. Chances are you probably aren't going to win, but it's the hope that one day they might that provides a little sunshine in your life.

Winning premierships is not about who deserves it, it's who has the highest score on the day. History shows that a top four finish gives you much better odds of getting to that day.

I believe we will finish top 4 and that gives us our best chance in years. Dare to dream. It's a lot more fun.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Madtiger2006]

We could still finish 9th

Lose both

West Coast win 2
Melbourne win 2
Western Bulldogs win 2
Port and Sydney win 1

Our percentage is the worst of the lot.

In other news we could also finish 3rd and play Geelong.

GWS either lose to West Coast or win by less than 20
Geelong beat GWS
Geelong win their other game

We beat Freo and St Kilda and make up a gap of about 110-130 points or GWS drop both games

If the AFL were orchestrating the top 4. It would be most logical to have 2 Vic teams play week 1 in qualifying final because it guarantees finals at the MCG for each round.

We'd have to lose last 2 games by 10 goals and Dogs win last 2 by 10 goals. No chance we'll miss out

 

[Tiger Toffee]

We could still finish 9th

Lose both

West Coast win 2
Melbourne win 2
Western Bulldogs win 2
Port and Sydney win 1

Our percentage is the worst of the lot.

In other news we could also finish 3rd and play Geelong.

GWS either lose to West Coast or win by less than 20
Geelong beat GWS
Geelong win their other game

We beat Freo and St Kilda and make up a gap of about 110-130 points or GWS drop both games

If the AFL were orchestrating the top 4. It would be most logical to have 2 Vic teams play week 1 in qualifying final because it guarantees finals at the MCG for each round.

WCE 105.7 MELB 106.0 DOGS 98.3 RICHMOND 110.5

 

[docko911]

WCE 105.7 MELB 106.0 DOGS 98.3 RICHMOND 110.5

I meant our percentage is worse than the rest at the end of the scenario.

It was mostly in jest as it would be such a Richmond thing to finish 9th from 3rd three weeks earlier.

I think we are more likely to finish 3rd and play Geelong.

 

[TiggerMan22]

Yeah we will beat Adelaide.


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Adeliade is the only team I feel we have no chance against. They have way too much firepower for us to handle and then being in Adelaide on top of that.
Would feel we a reasonable chance of upsetting anyone else.

 

[prodigy]

Adeliade is the only team I feel we have no chance against. They have way too much firepower for us to handle and then being in Adelaide on top of that.
Would feel we a reasonable chance of upsetting anyone else.

See I disagree, the weight of expectation will be on Adelaide's shoulders. We go there with a free hit for a prelim. Nothing to lose, everything to gain. It would be very Richmond to cause one of the biggest upsets in recent history.
I'd put money on us if we were drawn together.


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[peterbuch74]

We could still finish 9th

Lose both

West Coast win 2
Melbourne win 2
Western Bulldogs win 2
Port and Sydney win 1

Our percentage is the worst of the lot.

In other news we could also finish 3rd and play Geelong.

GWS either lose to West Coast or win by less than 20
Geelong beat GWS
Geelong win their other game

We beat Freo and St Kilda and make up a gap of about 110-130 points or GWS drop both games

If the AFL were orchestrating the top 4. It would be most logical to have 2 Vic teams play week 1 in qualifying final because it guarantees finals at the MCG for each round.

Could also finish 2nd
Win both, both GWS and Cats lose this week and Cats beat GWS in Geelong in last game.
Stupid season, you just never know
Then we play Cats at the MCG on our terms

 

[docko911]

Could also finish 2nd
Win both, both GWS and Cats lose this week and Cats beat GWS in Geelong in last game.
Stupid season, you just never know
Then we play Cats at the MCG on our terms

Only GWS may have to lose this week for your scenario if we make up percentage, and they beat Geelong.

 

[tigernsw]

Only GWS may have to lose this week for your scenario if we make up percentage, and they beat Geelong.

Have you seen any West Coast games away from WA?
I wouldn't get them much of a chance of beating GWS at Spotless.